INSPECTION OF THE OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES AND THE ESTIMATIVE PROCESS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03033364
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2018
• Case Number: F-2013-02252
• Publication Date: September 19, 1962

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19 September 1962
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT
Inspection of the Office of National Estimates
and the Estimative Process
1. The objectives of the ONE inspection were (a) to
determine the views of the intelligence community on the quality
and usefulness of national intelligence estimates, and (b) to
appraise the efficiency of the estimative process and the Office
of National Estimates.
2. The inspection team was not qualified to weigh sub-
stantive conflicts revealed during USIB drafting and coordination
of specific estimates. Many ONE participants in estimating cited
examples of apparent deficiencies in estimating as, for example,
foreseeing the impact of the Communist Chinese agricultural crisiJ,
or assessing the operational capabilities of the Royal Laotian
Army. However, the inspection team heard no proposals for
modification of the existing authority and structure of the
estimative system. The inspectors concluded that a national
intelligence estimate undergoes as widespread, continuous and
intense an evaluation as any other document produced in the
intelligence community.
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3. National estimates are receiving careful consideration
by the top. planning and policy-making officers of the U.S.
Government. This is shown in the attached memoranda covering
discussions with Mr. Walt W. Rostow, Counsellor and Chief, Policy
Planning Council, Department of State, and Mr. William P. Bundy,
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security
Affairs. Equivalent testimony was obtained from spokesmen in
the offices of General Maxwell D. Taylor, Military Advisor to
the President, and Mr. McGeorge Bundy, Special Assistant to the
President for National Security Affairs.
4. These sources were consistent in their praise of the
current estimative product dealing with the Soviet Union--
particularly that on military subjects--and with alternative
courses of action in various contingency situations. Less
interest was expressed in the scheduled estimates on specific
countries, but there was general agreement that these estimates
had improved in usefulness by evolution from their earlier
encyclopedic approach toward better focussed analyses of key
issues.
5. The inspectors' principal findings are summarized in the
following paragraphs. In general, this survey proposes measures
which in our opinion would tend to increase the flexibility of
ONE and USIB management within existing patterns of operation.
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6. The performances of the individual members of the Board
of National Estimates vary in quality depending on the experience
of the individual in intelligence analysis and writing and on
his aptitude for the estimating process. This fact in no way
discounts the quality of his previous accomplishments in other
fields. The survey recommends that there be a continuing effort
to upgrade the quality of Board member performance by establishing
a time limit to the initial assignment of new members. Similarly
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as members of outstanding talent acquire seniority, attention
must be given to sabbatical assignments.
The Estimates Staff
7. The Estimates Staff of On has yet to determine whether
the talented drafter of estimates should work on a career basis.
The prevailing attitude of the staff is to reject reassignment in
the DD/I area unless this involves clear advancement. The DD/I
is now moving to promote a freer flow of senior personnel among
his offices. This survey recommends measures in support of ONE
career planning.
The Princeton Panel of Consultants
8. The use of a panel of outside specialists meeting
frequently at Princeton University to provide an additional check
on the adequacy of estimates was an obvious need and safeguard
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during the early years of the present estimative process. With
the growing professionalism of the ONE performance, review of
estimates by a panel of outside consultants has lost its vitality
in the virtually unanimous opinion of the ONE Estimates Staff.
The DAD/NE, however, continues to see utility in the panel sessions
both as a check for fresh views and to promote a healthy relation-
ship between the intelligence and academic communities. The
present survey recommends that the needs of the Estimates Staff
be governing in this area. The present panel approach to
consulting should be discontinued as a regular practice in favor
of more individual contacts with a greater variety of cleared
specialists of agreed interest to Estimates Staff personnel.
ONE Contact with Policy Makers
9. There is too little contact at present between ONE
personnel and Goyernment policy planners. This stems in large
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part from a long-standing doctrine of separation of intelligence
producers and users. The inspectors concluded that the profes-
sionalism of present day estimators insures against the risk
of partisan involvements. The estimators need more guidance from
policy makers on the context of estimating problems. The survey
recommends regular face-to-face discussions at the start of
each estimative effort between-ONE representatives and senior
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policy-making personnel. Notes from these discussions should
be included in the terms of reference for each estimate.
USIB Contribution to the Estimative Process
10. The USIB organizations contributing to estimating were
frequently described in CIA as a loose confederation in which eaCA
participant decides what resources he can commit to the estimating
effort. Present contributions are widely uneven in quality, and
some participants are not substantively qualified. The inspector3
have proposed that the USIB undertake periodic assessments of the
performance and program commitments of the participating agencies
and recommend standards of staffing and levels of research effort.
11. Specialized USIB committees, such as the Scientific
Intelligence Committee, have explicit responsibilities in their
Dap charters for contributing to national estimates. The
coordinating and publishing procedures employed by the Scientific
Intelligence Committee are not consistent with those of the
Board of National Estimates. The inspectors have recommended
that the Assistant to the DCI for Coordination be charged with
investigating through the USTA and recommending action to meet
this problem.
12. The inspectors suggest that the senior command of CIA
stimulate reaction to the estimates by direct dissemination to
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appropriate consumers, e.g., an Assistant Secretary for African
Affairs at the Department of State in the case of an estimate on
an African subject. Such dissemination should be accompanied by
correspondence requesting comment on leading issues.
Attachments
arman
In ector General
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