CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/04/15

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
03172430
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RIPPUB
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U
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13
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February 25, 2020
Document Release Date: 
February 27, 2020
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Publication Date: 
April 15, 1959
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PDF icon CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULL[15787461].pdf745.79 KB
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Zfir/ZZAWZ/Z/ZZZ77/ZZ/777//irer.414(ZZZ/77///17./Z/Z/ZW Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 1 Ur FP-4111.1�1%,& I mar wit 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 15 April 1959 Copy No., C 63 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN' 'NT NO � : IQ: ' f DA 1E: to %will 1U-1DAT f_rniro REVIEWEF 4 t9/1-E ,d TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C0317243027/1///7//17 ZiA� pproved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 T."12e re,n, oar Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 - Approve-d�fo7�61e-i-se: 2020/02/21 C03172430 15 APRIL 1959 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC East German rank and file apathetic toward Soviet moves on Berlin and German problem. Khrushchev's grudging endorsement of Gomulka seen posing long-range alternative for Kremlin of crushing Gomulka or permitting other satel- lites similar "heresy." Peiping appears concerned over strain on Sino-Indian relations from Tibet in- cident. II. ASIA-AFRICA Intercepts confirm Tin jqarmina Resistance Force. Turkey, alarmed over growth of Com- munist power in Iraq, probably revis- ing earlier advocacy of all-out support for Qasim. Iran desires to improve relations with USSR. British airline seeks pooling agreement with Indian international carrier. crrrirrr" Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 'F/77/7//,',/,10v,f,,,Z1/7",/7/7Z,Z,7/70/7/1/717,1701FAVAMMIrt/f/0703,M7./,`","//,,,,,ww//7"-zcAwar/7/ OP Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 41p0 VI" 0 14 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 15 April 1959 DAILY BRIEF L THE COMMUNIST BLOC East Germany: [5_ast German party leaders have been unable to evoke any enthusiasm for Moscow's policies con- cerning Berlin and Germany among the populace and party members. Even high party functionaries are convinced that "Big Brother" will make all decisions and that any East Ger- man action would be pointless:1 some party members are against a separate peace treaty on tie Yr nu n cis that it would finalize the Oder-Neisse boundary. - ussii-Patanci:i uommentina on tne recent party congress In Warsaw, stated that Khrushchev's grudging endorsement of both Gomulka and Poland's special brand of Communism is, in tim bound to have an impact on Communists throughout the world. Moscow may be faced eventually with the alternative of crush- ing Gomulka or permitting other satellites the same de ree of ...gi autonomy as Poland,. which would weaken Soviet control. (Page 1) Communist China - Tibet - India: Peiping's statements and dealings with India have been increasingly cautious since the Tibet revolt started last month. Communist China has thus far made no formal protest concerning Indian Government state- ments critical of the Communist handling of the revolt. Reflect ing this policy, Peiping recently instructed the managing editor t) of two Hong Kong Communist newspapers to "make no attacks ft\ on Indiali /:;;/W/ZZZ/Z,Zril/Z/ZZ,Z#Z,/aJEI'feE�ase: /21)20/02/21 C03172(3470W7/#11, �Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 et, II. ASIA-AFRICA 0 AV d:7 1 v 71" . _zz _74 7/1 7/ 7/i 4 . /47 r/4 1 1 ,VJ I I 0 Iraq: 1 small arms have been issued to the Communist- contr lied Popular Resistance Force. Priority is being given units stationed near the Iraqi frontiers. However, the quan- titi s and types of arms distributed suggest that the primary purpose at this time is training. 1 (Page 2) Turkey-Iraq-Egypt: 7op Top officials are becom- ing increasingly pessimistic over developments in Iraq, re- flecting a significant change in Turkish policy toward that country. Ank ra has agreed to c operate in any joint approach to impress Qasim with the danger of Communist en lfment. It continues to warn, however, that if Nasir gains in the Mid- dle East:, the free world will be no better off, because Nasir will "tumble" to the Communists whenever it suits hiri3 (Page 3) � Iran-USSR' Soviet-Iranian negotiations may be in the offing. t 0 to an agreement with us?" apparatly is attempting to secure an agreement with Air India . India: E3ritish Overseas Airways Corporation (BOAC) (Page 4) I Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko, in reply to the urging of the � new Iranian ambassador that Soviet propaganda attacks be halted, asked: "If these statements are stopped, are you willing to co:me International providing for pooling of revenues and facilities. Such an agreement would provide for equipping Air India with po- sition vis-a-vis US airlines. Air India officials state that they British jet aircraft and would improve BOAC's competitive Al , are dubious of the value of the proposed British agreement. 0Y" new ircraft, and they have informally requested US aid to en- They feel they cannot compete with BOAC unless they obtain P able them to purchase US aircraft] (Page 5) / 4Z,f,/Z/ZZZ,ZZZ/Z/Z/ZZ/zY/),,Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C031721/4Ar7/777/37/.4 15 Apr 59 DAILY BRIEF 11 (1/ 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 I 0 0 ably abated and the upward trend of the stock market is a significant indicator of confidence. There is still. 1 considerable apprehension about the confusion surround- ing international debate on Berlin and all-German prolb- les. Most West Berlin political leaders prefer the status quo, despite its weaknesses, to any compro- 0; mise. e/V 0 15 Apr 59 DAILY BRIEF iii IA TOP e d forRSeEleCasRe:g20/02/21C03172430WWW4WWWIA. e -r//,/z/zzez/zzzz,ifzz,zJzj,zzzzzzz , i ri, Kir, zx,erez/z,zzjzzzzzzzzA rizzzzi/rezziwe i Approved for Release:2020/02/21 C03172430 / ' 41101 I I I . CONCLUSIONS OF SPECIAL USIB COMMITTEE ON BERLIN SITUATION 6-he USIB has taken note of the following conclusions reached by its special committee on the Berlin situation. The committee pointed out that its conclusions were to be used in context with SNIE 100-2-59 (24 February 1959) and with the review of that es- timate in SNIE 100-2/1-59 (17 March 19593i1 6. Evidence of preparations for evacuation of Soviet control elements from Berlin continues to mount. While the USSR will not turn over access controls to the GDR in the near future, the physical transfer of ac- cess controls could be accomplished with little or no advance warnin-eA There are no reliable indications of a bloc in- tent in the near future to blockade Allied or West Ger- man access to West Berlin or to seal off West Berlin from the bloc. However, the USSR could take such ac- tions with little or no warning. The recent completion of new facilities at the Marienborn checkpoint suggests that the East Germans may impose tighter controls on railroad traffic between West Germany and Berlix--- 3. There are as yet no clear indications of spe- cific viet tactics at the forthcoming foreign minis- ters' meeting in Geneva. Moscow is using propaganda media and covert channels to play down East-West ten- sions and attempt to soften Western positions on the basic issues involve It is still too early to determine what effect, if any, Chancellor Adenauer's decision to seek the presidency will have on Bonn's foreign polic9Z Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Possible Impact on the Bloc of Khrushchev's Endorsement Of Gomulka Anrusncnev's grudging endorsement of Gomulka and Poland's own special brand of Communism is bound in time to have its impact on the Communist world. In the long run, Moscow may be faced with the alternatives of having to crush Gomulka or of permitting certain other satel- lites a degree of autonomy which would weaken its control. khe truce between Khrushchev and Go ul a is based on mutual necessity, As a Commu- nist, Gomulka, in the final analysis, can look only to Moscow for support and dares not defy the USSR openly. On the other hand, trouble in Poland could mean only trouble for Khrushchev, who does not want to risk another Hungary while he is so deeply involved in important international political maneuveringg bncern over the possible effect of the outcome of the Ber- lin crisis on Poland's unique position in the bloc has been ex- pressed to if the United States makes too many concessions to the Soviet Union in the current crisis over Berlin, the USSR would regard its dominance in East- ern Europe as assured and would no longer feel it necessary to tolerate the Polish differences. As long as there is some un- certainty in the USSR about the American attitude toward East- ern Europe, it will maintain the status quo in Poland and in some of the other countrie-s1 Currentl many Poles, including Gomulka, are concerned that the Soviet Union, despite Khru- ev s assurances to the contrary, will make "territorial ad- justments," stripping Poland of its highly prized western territo- ries in order to effect a German settlement. While Poland would prefer the Oder-Neisse border to be established for good, it fears the possible results of negotiations over Germany and will se tie for a continuation of the status qui:3 15 Apr 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 003172430 Page 1 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 ;se II. ASIA-AFRICA The Iraqi Situation Rapid expansion of Iraq's Communist-controlled Popular Resistance Force (PRF), presently estimated to number as high as 50,000, is continuing, with new organizational and train- ing centers being established throughout the country. As yet there has been no general order to issue arms to the PRF, but weapons are being furnished to PRF units stationed near the Iraqi frontiers and to the training centers. On 10 April, Bagh- dad ordered the issuance to the southern area PRF of 1,600 rifles, 60 Bren light machine guns, and 480 grenades, and smaller quantities to the central area PRF. Observations by American Embassy personnel indicate that in Baghdad PRF members must turn in their arms when they come off night pa- trol. The growth of the PRF is probably causing concern among some Iraqi Army elements. Whether or not such elements have the capability to resist the steady expansion of Communist power is problematical, especially in the wake of Qasim's sweeping purge of high-ranking anti-Communist officers. Qasim's speeches to military personnel in Baghdad on 9 April were notable, nevertheless, for the great stress which he placed on the danger stemming from "poisons of division" within the army. In his 14 April speech to the Communist-front Peace Par- tisans rally in Baghdad, Qasim again warned against "divisive and reactionary elements." He aligned himself with the "demo- cratic forces" who embody the "main inclination" in Iraq and whose objective is "to safeguard and preserve this immortal republic' but indicated there was room for "all parties of various inclinations if the objective of their leaders is to serve the country, freedom, and peace." 15 Apr 59 i-CkITD A I IkITCI I irt=kirr RI III FT11�1 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 Ifte '44W.1 Turkey Takes Harder Line on Iraq gti contrast to Turkey's past attitude, which minimized the possibility that Iraqi Premier Qasim would fall entirely under Communist influence, Prime Minister Menderes in- formed the American ambassador on 10 April that both he and President Bayar now are alarmed and concerned over the Communist danger in Iraq. Menderes further said Turkey is prepared to participate in any concerted Wester�plomatic activity to impress on Qasim the danger he faces Menderes stressed the continuing danger that UAR Pres- ident asir will return to close relations with the USSR, re- flecting the previous Turkish contention that the UAR rather than Iraq is the greater menace to the West. Turkish For- eign Minister Zorlu has consistently minimized the Commu- nist dan er in Iraq and has sought to avoid putting pressure on Qasimi aktrkey made only mild protests over the Kirkuk dis- orders last October in which Iraq's Turkish-speaking minority was involved. In March 1959 Zorlu made the gesture of offer- ing Qasim transit facilities in Turkey in order to assist the Iraqi Army to put down the Mosul rebels. Despite these initia- tives, the Turkish ambassador to Baghdad, who is being re-- placed, has apparently been unsuccessful in his efforts to reassure both Qasim and the Iraqi public of his country's friendly attitud.n. 15 Apr 59 CFMTDA I IKITPI I irtrmr= RI III rTIKI Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 Page 3 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 Iran Seeks to Improve Relations With USSR The new Iranian ambassador to Moscow, Abdol Hosein Masud-Ansari, tried during an interview with Foreign Min- ister Gromyko on 12 April to set the stage for improved Iranian-Soviet relations Gromyko responded to Masud-AnsarPs complaints over Radio Moscow's anti-Iranian propaganda with the query, "If these statements are stopped, are you willing to come to an agreement with us?" In response to Masud-Ansari's re- tort, "Let us not use coercion, and let us not ask to be re- warded for stopping a bad action," Gromyko said, "But we do not want to use coercion." The Iranian ambassador re- quested Tehran to note "in the next few days" whether this friendly interview results in any modification of the hostile tone of Radio Moscow. No substantial change in the Soviet broadcasts beamed to Iran has been noted by American moni- tors. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Hekmat informed Am assador Wailes in Tehran on 13 April that Iran hopes the Gromyko interview will re-establish a friendly atmos- phere, and is prepared to discuss outstanding problems with the USSR Ambassador Wailes believes Hekmat intended to indicate that Iran may be planning further negotiations of some type with the USSR] Iran's relations with the Soviet Union have been strained since negotiations for a nonaggression pact broke down on 10 February. Tehran's conclusion of a defense agreement with the United States on 5 March, despite a strenuous Soviet cam- naian to forestall it, has caused additional strains. 15 Apr 59 f�CkITD A I INTC1 I irt=kirr RI II I PTIKI Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 Page 4 Approved for Release: iOZ/02/21 C03172430 BOAC Seeks to Pool Resources With Air India 11-3ritish Overseas Airways Corporation (BOAC) is attempt- ing to secure an agreement with Air India International provid- ing for pooling of revenues, according to an Air India official. The agreement would also provide for sharing of terminal facili- ties, maintenance operations, and booking offices, and would in- volve a realignment of routes of the two airlines between London and Tokyo via India. It would result in India's giving BOAC pref- erence over other airlines on routes through India. BOAC has also offered to purchase Air India's Super nstellations and to supply it with Comets to modernize its fleet sir India officials, who claim they must make a decision by 1 June, say they fear such an agreement would cost their airline its independence. They feel, however, that they cannot compete with BOAC and other airlines unless they obtain new aircraft. They are not impressed with the Comet and would prefer Lockheed Electras or Boeing 720s to supplement the three Boeing 707s now on order. For this reason, they have informally request- ed US aid in financing the purchase of US aircraft 15 Apr 59 rFKITPAI INTFI LIC;ENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 Page 5 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 CAirvr 1 I Nue NW7 THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Executive Secretary, National Security Council The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior The Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director United States Information Agency The Director Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03172430 7/14/71271711.7.4017,0#7/7/4/14097/K