FOIA
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MULTIDISCIPLINARY BASELINE REPORT TO THE NSC/SPECIAL COORDINATION COMMITTEE FOR COUNTERINTELLIGENCE - 1978/05/01
Document Type:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
03306846
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
343
Document Creation Date:
April 3, 2019
Document Release Date:
April 12, 2019
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
Publication Date:
May 1, 1978
File:
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MULTIDI[15515073].pdf | 5.96 MB |
Body:
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Executive Summary
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1 May 1978
Copy
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Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
NOFORN� Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
NOCONTRACT� Not Releasable to Contractors or
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PROPIN� Caution�Proprietary Information Involved
NFIBONLY� NFIB Departments Only
ORCON� Dissemination and Extraction 0+ Information
Controlled by Originator
REL This Information has been Authorized for
Release to ...
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MULTIDISCIPLINARY BASEL INE REPORT
TO THE
NSC/SPECIAL COORDINATION COMMITTEE FOR COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
I . Introduction
The NSC/Special Coordination Committee for Counterintelligence
(SCC/Cl) requested on 3 March 1978 that a draft Baseline Report De
prepared by the DCI and the Department of Justice addressing "among
others" questions on the foreign intelligence threat to the United States
and the countering of it. Although the questions were HUMI NT-oriented,
the DCI decided to expand the scope of the report to SIGI NT, imagery,
international terrorism and protective security, thereby bringing together
for the first time in one paper the totality of the intelligence and terrorist
threats to the U.S. and the countering efforts against those threats.
Although this report is thus broader in scope, its purpose is in
accordance with the original SCC/Cl objectives for it., i.e., (1) that it oe
a basic reference and educational aid for the SCC principals, and (2) that
it be self-critical and seek to raise as many issues as seem to me-it
SCC/Cl consideration. These issues were not to be given full staff study,
with pros and cons of alternatives carefully weighed and solutions recom-
mended. Furthermore, it was expected that the issues would vary in im-
portance and priority. The objective is to enable the SCC/Cl to look at a
wide range of issues and decide which to address, and when.
The report lays the groundwork for the multidisciplinary national net
counterintelligence assessment to be undertaken next by the SCC/Cl tor
the President. The Baseline Report covers both threats and their
counters, but does not net, i .e. , assess the effectiveness of our count� rs
to the threats.
The organization of this report is simple. Each threat is discussed
separately, with the countering program(s) immediately following:
HUMINT, Counter-HUMINT , SIGINT, Counter-SIGINT, Imagery, Counter-
Imagery, International Terrorism, Counter- Ferrorism, Protective Security,
and a final summary view of a Multidisciplinary Approach to the overall
problem. There is more extensive coverage of HUMI NT and Count�T-
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HUM] NT than of other subjects because of the need to respond to ..lore de-
tailed SCC/Cl terms of reference for HUMI NI and Counter-HUMI NT .
Issues and problems appear in the above sections of the report wher�
ever the particular topic best fits. Situations are designated as "prob-
lems" to highlight them for SCC/Cl information, not action. "Issues" en
the 3ther hand, are tagged for possible SCC/Cl consideration and action.
This Executive Summary highlights significant aspects of the repor ,
but is not an overall summary. The report's comprehensiveness and is
related function of serving as a basic reference make a selective approach
more appropriate. Further, the Summary is intended for use with the
Issue Appendix to the report., and does not therefore cover the issues.
Their separate collection in the Appendix is for convenience of SCC/Cl
reference. Relevant background for particular issues appears in the bocey
of the report; the issue statements are not intended to stand entirely on
their own..
This report has been prepared by the Intelligence Community ( IC )
Staff on behalf of both the DCI and the Attorney General. Inputs to it
were obtained from the U.S. Army ACSI , CIA (Operations Directorate,
Office of Security, Office of Communications), DCI Committee on E>,-
changes Staff, DIA, DoD (Office of the Deputy Under Secretary for
Policy, Defense Investigative Programs Office), FBI, JCS, Naval Investiga-
tive Service, NSA, AF Office of Special Investigations, DCI Security Com-
mittee Staff, and Treasury. The ensuing IC Staff working draft product
was circulated to the contributors plus the National Foreign Assessment
Center (CIA), the Department of State, and the staffs of the DCI SI GI N�,
COIVII REX, and the Human Resources Committees for comment. Further
change was then made and this final product prepared by the IC Stati.
2
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VI. INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
A Threat
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o In recent years there has been a trend of increasing contact
and cooperation between international terrorist groups, often
of widely differing political philosophy and purpose. To
date this has been more in the nature of mutual assistance
(training, funding, documentation, provision of sanctuary,
and/or direct operational participation) than any actual
coordination of operations at a supranational level.
o Terrorists thus far have relied for the most part on hand-
guns, machineguns, and ordinary explosives as armaments.
There have been two instances of aborted attacks that were
to have employed shoulder-launched SA-7 heat-seeking mis-
siles against commercial airlines, and several cases involving
use of anti-tank rockets against ground targets. Terrorist
acquisition of more sophisticated weapons, such as highly
destructive, portable nuclear, biological or chemical weapons,
could add a major new dimension to the international
terrorist threat. There has been no evidence to date, how-
ever, of a definite move in that direction.
o Of the 50 to 60 organizations engaged in international
terrorism, 15 are discussed in some detail in this report.
The most dangerous may be
the People's Revolutionary Army
and the Montoneros both in Argentina);
T('.9t1r-et
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op ecre
VIII. International Terrorist Threat Against the United States
A. International Terrorist Threat Within the U.S.
3.5(c)
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3.5(c)
3.5(c)
5. Latin America
The most active and dangerous Latin American terroris
organizations operating today are those associated with two Argentine
revolutionary movements, the People's Revolutionary Army (ERP) and
the Montoneros. Both organizations, especially the ERP, have been
badly battered by Argentine security forces in recent months. They
have, however, managed to maintain a high level of terrorist violence
directed against local government and military officials, the police, and
both the Argentine and foreign business and diplomatic communities.
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a. Revolutionary Coordinating Junta
In addition to the serious indigenous threat that it
poses, the Argentine ERP is noteworthy for its efforts to both regionalize
and internationalize its influence with and support to other "revolutionary
organizations." In 1974, with the objective of coordinating a "continental
struggle against the imperialist enemy," the ERP formed the Revolutionary
Coordinating Junta (JCR). The JCR is not a terrorist action group; it
is rather a coordinating body intended to provide the wherewithal (funds,
arms, training, etc.) to member groups to enable them to undertake
effective revolutionary action. JCR membership embraces revolutionary
groups in five Latin American nations (Argentina, Chile, Uruguay,
Bolivia and Paraguay). Additionally, it has systematically embarked
on a campaign to maintain contact with and extend support to other
terrorist or revolutionary groups throughout South and Central
America.
3.5(c)
JCR efforts
to extend its activities
beyond Latin
America are more
recent,
and
sufficient
information
has
not yet been
obtained to assess this fully.
However,
it is known
that the JCR has
opened offices in Western Europe, and has embarked on propagandizing,
proselytizing, and fund-raising campaigns aimed at Latin American exiles
residing there. JCR organizational activity observed to date indicates
a growing capability to support significant levels of terrorism both in
Latin America and elsewhere.
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b. Montoneros
3.5(c)
The Latin American group currently posing the
most significant threat to U.S. business and official personnel is the
Argentine group known as the Montoneros. Its objective is the simui-
taneous overthrow of the current government and the expulsion of
foreign, including U.S., "capitalists," all of whom are accused of
exploiting Argentina's people and natural resources. The Montonero
membership has been estimated at between 800 and 1,000 active, armed
guerrillas; support membership is unknown. The Montoneros have
their strongholds in the major Argentine cities, principally Buenos Aires
A number of the leaders have been forced to flee Argentina, traveling
to Europe, due to the increasingly successful anti-guerrilla government
operations. Nevertheless, the organization continues to have real
potential to plan and carry out terrorist operations. Typical opera-
tions include bank, business, and personal robberies; bombings;
kidnappings for ransom and assassinations. However, due to recent
pressures from federal security forces, it appears that the trend is
via toward smaller and less complicated operations, such as assassinations
and robberies. The Montoneros also conduct propaganda campaigns
consisting of slogans painted on walls, pamphlet bombs, and press
conferences in safehouses. Although foreign businesses had been re-
moving their representatives from Argentina, most recently the trend
appears to be for new representatives to return to the major cities,
principally Buenos Aires.
People's Revolutionary Army (ERP)
wit The second most important group currently posing
a significant threat due to its terrorist/guerrilla activities is ERP of
Argentina. It too has the objective of overthrowing the current govern-
ment and forcing foreign businesses to leave Argentina. However, due
to its relatively small size, about 150 armed and active members (with
the number of supporters unknown), there is little likelihood of success.
The Argentine government believes that most of this estimated membershi,)
is living in urban areas, hiding to avoid detection while at the same time
trying to reorganize and recruit new members. Former operations include
robberies and assassinations. Its weakness is its small membership and it,
inability to organize. As such, it will probably be eradicated during tie
next few years; government sources have estimated that the problem posed
both by the Montoneros and the ERP will be eliminated within 18 month,
but this appears to be too optimistic.
C.
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