SOUTHERN LEBANON: GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES ON A POSSIBLE ISRAELI INVASION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05045499
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: April 23, 2025
• Document Release Date: March 19, 2025
• Case Number: F-2024-00717
• Publication Date: April 1, 1982

Approved for Release: 2025/03/19 C05045499
Directorate of
Intelligence
Seecet
NOFORN (b)(3) NatSecAct
Southern Lebanon:
Geographic Perspectives on
a Possible Israeli Invasion (c)
A Research Paper
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GI 82-10087
April 1982
Copy 559
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Directorate of
Intelligence
Secret
NOFORN
(b)(3) NatSecAct
I
Southern Lebanon:
Geographic Perspectives on
a Possible Israeli Invasion (C)
A Research Paper
Information available as of 16 April 1982
has been used in the preparation of this report.
Secret
GI 82-10087
April 1982
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Chronology of Major Events
1920
Creation of French Mandate for Syria and Lebanon
and British Mandate for Palestine.
1922
Demarcation of boundary between Lebanese and
Palestinian Mandates.
1943
Unwritten National Covenant between Lebanese
Christians and Muslims agrees to an independent
postwar Lebanon based on confessional representation
in 1932 census which showed a slight Christian
majority.
1946
French withdraw, Lebanon gains independence.
1948
Israel is founded; Lebanese participate with other
Arab League forces in subsequent attack on new
Jewish state. Approximately 100,000 Christian and
Muslim Palestinians flee from northern Israel into
Lebanon.
20 July 1949
Israel withdraws from the Lebanese territory seized in
1948.
1958
US Marines land near Beirut in response to request
for assistance from Lebanese Government.
December 1968
Israeli commandos land at Beirut Airport and damage
or destroy 13 commercial aircraft in retaliation for
attack on El Al plane in Athens.
1969
Cairo accords between the PLO and Lebanese Gov-
ernment legitimize Palestinian military presence in
southern Lebanon.
Secret
NOFORN
1969
Palestinian guerrillas begin cross-border shellings and
incursions into Israel, prompting Israeli reprisal raids
and preemptive strikes into Lebanon. Many Lebanese
border villages are abandoned; many homes de-
stroyed.
September 1970
After intense fighting Jordanian military defeats Pal-
estinian forces and restores order. Weak Lebanese
Government is unable to resist subsequent Palestinian
guerrilla influx.
1970
Israeli raid into southern Lebanon penetrates to a
distance of 16 kilometers and lasts 32 hours.
April 1973
Israeli commandos attack homes and offices of lead-
ing Palestinians in Beirut, killing three top guerrilla
leaders.
May 1973
Clashes between Lebanese Army and Palestinians
leave 60 dead and hundreds wounded; Palestinian
forces are reinforced by Syrian-based Palestinians;
Muslim pressure on Lebanese Government forces
Army to suspend major efforts to control guerrilla
activity; alarmed Christians begin strengthening pri-
vate militias.
October 1973
Egypt and Syria attack Israel on Yom Kippur. Leba-
non not involved.
1974
Palestinian groups raid Qiryat Shemona and Maalot,
killing 40 Israeli civilians.
April 1975
Heavy fighting breaks out between Palestinians and
Phalangists in Beirut following ambush of busload of
Palestinians. Incident regarded as beginning of civil
war.
Secret
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March 1976
Civil war in full swing; Lebanese Army splits along
sectarian lines.
June 1976
Syrian Army enters Lebanon; US Ambassador and
economic officer are murdered.
July 1976
Israel establishes border crossings with Lebanon un-
der "Good Fence" program.
August 1976
Palestinian refugee camp, Tel-al Zaatar in Beirut,
falls to Christian forces after a 52-day siege. Signals
beginning of last phase of civil war.
October 1976
Riyadh minisummit ending civil war creates 30,000-
man Arab Deterrent Force (ADF) that includes most-
ly Syrian forces.
March 1978
Guerrilla attack on Israeli bus prompts Israeli inva-
sion of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River. UN
Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is created by
UN Security Council Resolutions 425 and 426: Reso-
lution 425 calls for Israeli withdrawal and creation of
UNIFIL; 426 spells out force's terms of reference.
June 1978
Israelis turn over control of 5- to 10- kilometer-wide
border zone to Lebanese Army unit commanded by
Major Saad Haddad, a Lebanese Christian.
July 1979
Last of non-Syrian units of the ADF depart Lebanon.
July 1980
Phalange defeats rival National Liberal Party militia,
thus establishing control over East Beirut.
Secret
NOFORN
April 1981
Heavy fighting takes place between Syrian and Chris-
tian forces in Zahlah and across the confrontation line
in Beirut; Israeli Air Force shoots down two Syrian
helicopters in the Bekaa Valley. Syria moves SA-6
surface-to-air missiles into Lebanon.
24 July 1981
After heavy cross-border shelling, US-negotiated
agreement ends hostile military action from Lebanese
and Israeli territory.
15 April 1982
Fighting breaks out between Shiite militia (AMAL)
and leftist groups including Palestinians in Beirut and
southern Lebanon.
25 April 1982
Scheduled Israeli withdrawal from Sinai.
July-August 1982
Scheduled presidential elections in Lebanon.
The above information is Secret.
Secret
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Secret
NOFORN
Armed Political Entities in Lebanon
Entity Leaders
Military Strength
Lebanese Government
President Ilyas Sarkis 21,600
Maronite Christians
Lebanese Front
Phalange
National Liberal
Party
Pierre and Amin
Jumayyil, Bashir
Jumayyil (Militia Head)
Camille Chamoun
Dany Chamoun
(Militia Head)
30,000
Christians in
the south
Major Saad Haddad 2,000-2,500
Zgharta Front
Sulayman Franjiyah
Robert Franjiyah
(Militia Head)
3,000
Lebanese Muslims
National Movement
Progressive
Socialist Party
Murabitun
Various smaller parties
Walid Jumblat
Ibrahim Qulayiat
10,000-12,000
AMAL Shia Militia
7,000-8,000
Syria (Arab Deterrent Force)
22,000
UNIFIL
7,000
Palestinians
Fatah
Saiqa
Yasir Arafat
Issam Qadi
7,000-10,000
2,000-4,000
Popular Front for
the Liberation of
Palestine�General
Command (PFLP-GC)
Ahmad Jabril
200-500
Democratic Front
for the Liberation
of Palestine (DFLP)
Nayif Hawatmah
500
Popular Front for George Habbash 500-1,000
the Liberation
of Palestine (PFLP)
Front for the
Liberation of
Palestine (FLP)
Taalat Yaqub
100-200
Arab Liberation
Front (ALF)
Abd al-Rahim Ahmad 300-500
Popular Struggle Samir Ghushi
Front (PS F)
Less than 200
Black June
Sabri al-Banna
Less than 200
This table is Unclassified.
Secret
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Secret
NOFORN
Village Populations in Christian-Dominated
Area Along Israel's Northern Border
(in East-to-West Order)
Village
Estimated
Religious
Village
Estimated
Religious
Population
Composition
Population
Composition
Kafr Shuba
400
Druze
Al Habis
Yarun
300
Mixed
Halta
0
Al Majidiyah
50
Druze
Aynata
2,000
Muslim
Al Mari
150
Mixed
Bint Jubayl
Harat as Sidri
8,000
Muslim
As Sulayyib
200
Mixed
Kunin
150
Muslim
Arab al Luwayzah
At Tin i
300
Muslim
Al Amrah
50
Mixed
Mazra at Sarda
0
Ayn Ibil
4,000
Christian
Al Khiyam
0
Hanin
0
Dibbin
200
Muslim
Dibil
400
Muslim
Al Balat
500
Muslim
Rumaysh
4,000
Mixed
Mari Uyun
Ayta ash Shab
400
Mixed
Al Qulayah
8,000
Christian
Bayt Lif
Al Khirbah
Al Qawzah
500
Muslim
Dayr Mimas
750
Mixed
Ramyah
50
Muslim
Kafr Killa
3,000
Muslim
Marwahin
Al Udaysah
2,000
Mixed
Shihin
200
Mixed
Rabb ath Thalathin
50
Muslim
Umm at Tut
50
Muslim
Bani Hayyan
50
Muslim
Al Jibbayn
50
Muslim
Tallus
100
Muslim
Yarin
Ad Duhayrah
0
Muslim
Markaba
400
Muslim
Hula
1,000
Muslim
Tayr Harfa
Abu Shash
300
Muslim
Mays al Jabal
900
Muslim
At Matmurah
Muhaybib
100
Muslim
Shama
150
Muslim
Blida
750
Muslim
Alma ash Shab
1,200
Christian
Hayy Bit
Al Bayyadah
150
Mixed
Nasir
750
Mixed
Aytarun
Ash Shawmarah
300
Muslim
Marun at Ras
0
Total
41,750
This table is Confidential.
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