SOVIET MOTIVATIONS FOR THE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN AFGHANISTAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIA

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05173289
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December 28, 2022
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F-2012-01432
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January 3, 1983
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Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 (b)(3 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 --Seeret� (b)(1) (b)(3) Soviet otiva ions for the Use of Chemical Weapons in Afghanistan and Southeast Asia An Intelligence Assessment -Seer-et_ SOY 83-10003X January 1983 Copy 295 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 C05173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 -sremz Soviet Motivations for the Use of Chemical Weapons in Afghanistan and Southeast Asia Information available as of 3 January 1983 was used in this report. "sgE-C�REZ.' Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 -gre-REI Soviet Motivations for the Use of Chemical Weapons in Afghanistan and Southeast Asia Chemical Warfare in Soviet Military Doctrine The use by the USSR and its allies of lethal and nonlethal chemical warfare (CW) in areas such as Afghanistan and Southeast Asia has a foundation in Soviet military doctrine.(1) The Soviets have written extensively about chemical warfare in a NATO-Warsaw Pact context and devote a substantial amount of training to operating in contaminated- -nuclear, biological, or chemical--environments. We have long estimated, however, that the presence of nuclear cr chemical weapons in the enemy arsenal could give the Soviets pause in initiating chemical attacks. No such deterrent exists with the irregular fcrces in Southeast Asia or Afghanistan. /has provided for the employment of chemical munitions in a number of tactical situations--such as in mountainous and heavily forested areas. Soviet doctrine reportedly also has envisioned the use of chemical agents in localized conflicts, such as border wars. This local-war doctrine envisages the use, initially, of harassing (irritant) agents, incapacitants such as psychochemicals, and herbicides. During the decisive- stage of a local war--and apparently even earlier under certain circumstances--lethal agents also could be employed, even if the enemy had not used them first. In addition to supporting offensive military operations, CW in such a conflict could be used to frustrate or spoil enemy efforts to initiate an offensive. In countries where chemical weapons have been employed by the Soviets or their allies--Afghanistan, Laos, Kampuchea, and, years ago, Yemen--they were used to eliminate the resistance of stubborn, highly resilient Irregular forces located in inaccessible mountainous or jungle terrain. (b)(3); (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) In addition to its direct military utility, the Soviets--and more particularly their allies--appear to view CW as a terror weapon, relying upon its psychological as well as its physiological impact. Soviet allies have Page 1 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 employed CW in an apparent effort to eliminate popular support for insurgents�as well as to eradicate them. In Southeast Asia, for instance, chemical agents frequently are used to contaminate entire villages, including their food and water supply. In addition, the medical symptoms produced by the use of mycotoxins--"yellow rain"--are particularly horrifying and guaranteed to instill fear in villagers who observe them. Tactical Advantages The use of a variety of CW agents in a local war also affords a number of tactical advantages. Irritants and � incapacitants have been used to render an enemy, well hidden in caves or dense forests, more accessible to conventional weapons or to capture. For instance, according to Soviet helicopter units in Afghanistan have used chemical agents to dislodge insurgents from caves and then have attacked them with conventional weapons. In addition, claim lethal chemical agents have been used to kill resistance fighters in hiding places which, due to natural terrain and vegetation, are impervious to conventional ordnance. Chemical attacks frequently have been conducted in lieu of costly ground sweeps in extremely difficult terrain. Such attacks also can deny the insurgents entry into contaminated areas and prevent their return home by poisoning food and water supplies. Testing and Evaluation Operational testing and evaluation under various field conditions is another important military rationale for the use of chemical weapons. In our judgment, the Soviets may have thought the United States gained valuable experience in the use of chemicals during the Vietnam war. This, in part, may have stimulated their own interest in conducting overseas operational testing cf chemical agents. The wide variety of medical symptoms reported in Southeast Asia and Afghanistan suggests that these countries now have become test sites for a broad spectrum of Soviet irritant, Incapacitating, and lethal chemical agents--both old and new--as well as delivery vehicles. Page 2 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 SECRET According to Afghan and H'mong refugees, Soviet and Lao medical survey teams have entered contaminated areas after attacks and conducted field examinations of living and dead victims. In at least one case, an claims the Soviets removed bodies for further study. Some field examinations may have been conducted to assess levels of toxic contamination before the entry of ground troops. Military Effectiveness Tie military results of the use of chemical weapons in Southeast Asia and Afghanistan have varied considerably. In Laos, where aircraft spray poisonous substances on unprotected villagers--routinely including women and children--such use apparently has been quite effective. Thousands of H'mong have been killed, injured, or forced to seek refuge in Thailand. In Kampuchea, where the attacks in large pact have been conducted by artillery in support of ground troop operations against better protected guerrilla fighters, the effectiveness has been substantially less. In Afghanistan, where Soviet forces have at their disposal a broad range Of mcdern weaponry, the use of lethal and nonlethal chemical weapers seems to be much more limited and selective than in Southeast Asia. In addition, the effectiveness of such use has been even lower than in Kampuclea. This may be because the mujanedin normally are well hidden and have begun employing crude methods of protecting themselves from inhaling gas vapors, and because weather and geographic conditions are extremely difficult. Political Calculations In providing their Vietnamese and Laotian allies with a chemical weapons capability and in undertaking some lethal chemical operations in Afghanistan themselves, the Soviets must have considered the possibility that they would be accused of violating the relevant international accords, even tnough the legal aspects of OW use are ambiguous (see appendix). We doubt, however, that the Soviets believed there would be significant risk of international discovery. They probably anticipated that .documenting the use of chemical weapons in the Third World would be difficult--the. areas where they have been used are remote and the SECRET Page 3 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 substances generally dissipate rapidly. In addition, Moscow and its allies could try to thwart detection efforts--as they have by making it difficult for UN observers to gain access to Afghanistan, Kampuchea, and Laos. Furthermore, the Soviets probably initially dcubted that anyone would take an interest in such obscure people as the H'mong or the remnants of the stigmatized Fol Pot regime. The continuing use of chemical weapons in Southeast Asia and Afghanistan indicates that, So far, MOSCOW has judged the international reaction to their use to be more an irritant than a reason to change policy. The Soviets probably thought that initial US charges of employment of such weapons could be brushed away as part of US efforts to discredit the USSR. They probably judged that propaganda on such U3 actions as the use of chemical weapons in Vietnam and the decision to undertake a binary OW program could be used to counter the US charges. The failure of all but a few close US allies to publicly endorse the US charges and the initial UN investigation's equivocation on the issue probably reinforced these judgments. The recent UN report attesting to the existence of circumst3ntial evidence of CW use may give Moscow more concern, however, because it is the first good 1ndtcation that the US case is obtaining broader acceptance. Appendix Legal Issues Associated With the Use of Chemical Agents and Mycotokins The 1925 Geneva Protocol bans the use in war of chemical (and bacteriological) weapons.(2) Although the USSR ratified the treaty in 1928 and Vietnam did so in 1980, Afghanistan, Laos, and Kampuchea have not signed it. By its own language, the Protocol only applies between signatory parties. Many countries--including the USSR and Vietnam-- have made reservations reiterating that they are not bound with respect to countries that did not sign the Protocol. Therefore, the Protocol itself would not apply to Soviet or Vietnamese use of chemical weapons in Afghanistan, Kampuchea, or Laos. Neither the possession nor transfer of chemical weapons, nor assistance to otner countries in their acquisition, are violations of the Protocol in the absence of involvement in the use of such weapons. The Protocol, Page 4 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 however, has become international custom among civilized nations. That custom, at least, would be "violated" by the use of lethal chemical weapons or assistance in such use. The US position is that the use of mycotoxins in Southeast Asia and Afghanistan clearly violates the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. This agreement, to which the USSR, Vietnam, Lacs, and Afghanistan are parties, prohibits the development, production, stockpiling, acquisition, and retention of biological agents or toxins. It also bans weapons and equipment to deliver such substances. Additionally, the convention prohibits the transfer of such items "to any recipient whatsoever, directly or indirectly," ard prohibits assistance to any state in manufacturing or acquiring them. The Soviets deny using mycotoxins but assert that these substances--whether produced synthetically or by biological organisms--are not living and hence are chemicals. They say they snould be classified as chemical warfare agents. The US position, however, is that all toxins, whether natural or synthetic, are prohibited by the agreement. Page 5 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289 R (1) As used in this paper, the term "chemical warfare" includes the use of mycotoxins. (2) The United States holds that the treaty covers only the use of lethal weapons, not such substances as irritants and herbicides. Page 6 Approved for Release: 2015/01/05 005173289