CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973587
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 12, 1952

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SECURIT NFORMATION
12 August 1952
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Copy NO. 57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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10OCIMINT NO 174
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CUSS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUDI: HR 70-2
Office of Current'IntelligencelwaE:
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOPS
ET
REVIEWER:.
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I, North Korean pilots may be training for bomber escort (page 3).
2, Viet Minh attack in central Vietnam indicated (page 3).
SOUTH ASIA
3. Comment on Indian Communists' policy of violent action (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Tanker reportedly arrives at Iranian port (page 4).
5. Point IV Program under attack in Iran (page 5).
6. Comment on the removal of King Talal of Jordan (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Comment on Soviet tactics in Berlin access dispute (page 6).
8. French seen more flexible on Saar question (page 7).
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1, North Korean pilots may be training for bomber escort:
Comment: The North Korean Air Force is
estimated to have a division of MIG-15's, and a division of conventional
fighter aircraft, but no bombers. The Communists in China and
Manchuria are believed, however, to have 260 light bombers.
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2. Viet Minh attack in central Vietnam indicated:
the Viet Minh plans a
general attack in the Hue-Tourane area of
central Vietnam
The French state that
they do not have the necessary reserves in this area to withstand an
attack in strength.
Comment: General Linares, acting French
Commander, noted a strong Viet Minh threat in the Tourane vicinity
during his recent trip there. Hue and Tourane lie on the coast half-
way between Saigon and Haiphong.
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The Viet Minh may be planning only a diver-
sionary attack in this sector, as they did on a small scale recently,
to draw French reinforcements from more strategic areas. The loss
of the important cities of Hue and Tourane, however, would be a severe
blow to the French effort in Indochina.
SOUTH ASIA
3. Comment on Indian Communists' policy of violent action:
During an 8 August debate in the upper house
of the Indian Parliament, Communist deputy Sundarayya indicated that
the Indian Communist Party has not abandoned violence as an instru-
ment of policy. In the first statement of such strength on the floor of
parliament, he declared that the Communists possess arms which
they will surrender only if the government promises them amnesty.
He asserted that it is the inherent right of the people to revolt against
a tyrannical government and that those refusing to surrender arms
under duress are patriots.
This statement lends credibility to a June
report that the Indian Communist Party had received instructions to
resume violent activity concurrently with peaceful united front tactics.
When the preventive detention bill now being
debated becomes law, as it undoubtedly will, the Indian Government
will be in a better position to suppress Communist activities.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Tanker reportedly arrives at Iranian port:
A 10,000-ton tanker, believed to be American
arrived at Bandar Mashur on 9 August,
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The National Iranian Oil Company has been expecting a tanker of this
size, and International Enterprises, a firm which has been trying to
promote various oil deals, is expecting three American-flag tankers
in August.
Comment: Iranian press reports at the end
of July that several tankers had arrived at Iranian ports have not been
confirmed, although the British Embassy believed on 31 July that one
or more had put in at Bandar Mashur, a loading point for crude oil.
5. Point IV Program under attack in Iran:
\the Tudeh and the Partisans
-4TA Peace had been told to sabotage Point IV
operations. Attacks against Point IV offices
throughout Iran had been ordered, and party
members instructed to infiltrate the organi-
zation.
I'udeh demonstrations against Point IV reportedly scheduled for
24 July in Isfahan, Tabriz, and Shiraz did not materialize, but that
there has been a large increase in Tudeh-directed agitation against
the program.
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Comment: The Point IV Program has been
a Tudeh target since it was established in Iran. Three Soviet officials
who visited Azerbaijan in late April inquired extensively about Point W
projects, and the clandestine Azerbaijan Democratic Station has featured
numerous attacks on the program. Nationalist attacks on American
aid programs are creating a favorable atmosphere for the Tudeh efforts.
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6. Comment on the removal of King Talal of Jordan:
The removal of King Talal by the Jordanian
Parliament on 11 August and the proclamation of Crown Prince Hussein
as king marks the end of the 12-month period of uncertainty which
followed King Abdullah's assassination in 1951.
The ouster of the king may cause demonstra-
tions similar to that which took place in Amman on 8 August protesting
his rumored replacement. Political factions may attemrit to capitalize
on any unrest. The government's competent security forces, however,
can be expected to suppress any disorders.
Jordan's neighbors have tried during the past
year to take advantage of unsettled conditions in the country. Iraq in
particular has tried to promote an Iraqi-Jordanian union. With the re-
moval of Talal, the newly-established Regency Council should effective-
ly protect Jordan's interests.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Comment on Soviet tactics in Berlin access dispute:
The Russians may now be trying to set a
precedent for East German "autonomy" in dealing with West Germany
and the Western powers. Soviet General Dengin's recent reply that
Allied requests for more daily trains to West Berlin would be "re-
ferred to the East German authorities" appears to be evidence of this
trend.
Allied officials in Berlin advised the Russians
that they assumed that the Soviet Control Commission had "issued the
necessary instructions" to the East Germans. American observers
in Frankfurt, however, believe that the Russians may be trying to force
the West into giving de facto recognition to the East German Government,
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With this interpretation, the Soviet move
tends to corroborate earlier reports that the East Germans expect to
receive increased jurisdiction over matters previously subject to
four-power control and agreement. Although such authority will
hardly be granted prior to ratification of the West German contractual
agreement, further Soviet moves to establish the appearance of East
German sovereignty are probable.
8. French seen more flexible on Saar question:
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Chancellor Adenauer's letter of 4 August
has led the French Foreign Office to question
German sincerity regarding Europeanization
of the Saar. There is every indication, how-
ever, that the French want to reach agreement
in the current negotiations.
The American Embassy in Paris believes that
when talks are resumed on 13 August, Schuman will be willing to dis-
cuss a surrender of certain French privileges, and perhaps a grant of
certain advantages to the Germans, but that he will refuse to consider
termination of the French-Saar conventions. The Embassy further
believes that the question of free elections in the Saar is not an insuper-
able obstacle, but would be the subject of the "very last concession
made by the French."
Comment: The stumbling blocks in the current
negotiations are the questions of electoral freedom in the Saar, France's
special economic privileges, and the cession of a small portion of French
territory to the Saar as a gesture to save face for the Germans.
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