WORLDWIDE: COUNTRIES LIKELY TO EXPAND WEATHER-MODIFICATION EFFORTS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06530722
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: May 14, 2018
• Case Number: F-2016-00405
• Publication Date: March 20, 2013

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Worldwide: Countries Likely To Expand Weather-Modification Efforts
ECONOMIC SECURITY CENTER
More governments probably will employ weather-modification
technology to counter the perceived effects of climate change�despite the
risks associated with greater use�following the latest example where
Indonesia publicly claimed that its use in January and February of cloud
seeding prevented some flooding in Jakarta.
scientific experts have warned that the risk of societal disruptions
from weather and climate extremes, such as droughts and floods, is likely to
increase during the next few years�challenges that governments may assess
weather-modification efforts can mitigate.
�n/Veather-modification efforts are generally designed to enhance
precipitation in chronic drought areas, suppress destructive hail, or disperse
disruptive fog cover. According to the US National Research Council and
press reports, the number of countries with weather-modification programs
during the past decade has increased from 24 to 42, with at least 150 active
programs worldwide as of 2012.
Indonesian officials in March said that they plan to expand the use of
weather modification to other parts of the country next year, according to
Indonesian press reporting. Jakarta in early January suffered flooding that
killed at least 36 people and displaced more than 46,000 residents, but
Indonesian officials claimed that cloud seeding off the coast had reduced
the amount of rain that would have fallen on the city later that month and in
February.
�flAccording to press reports, China, which spends more than $100 million
on weather-modification projects annually, started four new cloud-seeding
programs in 2011 as part of its Five Year Plan to increase precipitation
across the country after it suffered the worst drought in a century. Chile last
year announced a cloud-seeding program as part of its drought-mitigation
strategy.
Effectiveness of Weather Modification Uncertain
Scientific experts and those conducting weather-modification operations
disagree about the effectiveness of the programs. The US National Research
Council, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and scientists have
expressed skepticism over claims of success, cautioning that additional research
is needed to show a causal link between cloud seeding and rain, although they
concede the practice could contribute to climate mitigation.
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�r�ploud-seeding firms and governments engaged in the practice claim
cloud-seeding techniques can increase seasonal precipitation rates by 5 to
20 percent, according to press reporting.
he scientific community criticizes weather-modification operations, like
the one in Indonesia, for failing to collect control data to determine how
much rain would have fallen without the operation.
ccording to the WMO, financial support for scientific weather-
modification research since the 1980s has decreased worldwide, while more
countries have moved directly into operational projects.
Freater use of weather-modification technologies and the potential
for unintended weather effects to extend beyond borders could lead to
disputes over resources or damages and calls for global standards and
monitoring. For example, India and Pakistan have a long history of bilateral
disputes over water rights that have been resolved through the Indus Water
Treaty; however, weather-modification efforts�or perceived efforts�that alter
the water supply across the border could exacerbate tensions.
The 1977 Convention on the Prohibition of Military Use of
Environmental Modification Techniques is the only formal international legal
mechanism related to weather modification, but its scope is limited to
prohibiting the use for military applications.
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)'s Provisions for
Cooperation Between States in Weather Modification could provide a basis
for future legal agreements. According to academic literature, UNEP
recommended guidelines that states considering weather-modification
operations first conduct assessments of the environmental impact, notify
and consult with states potentially affected, and register with the WMO.
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Worldwide: Extreme Weather Events Likely To
Heighten Interest in Weather Modification Efforts
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A projected increase in extreme weather events�including droughts, heat waves, wildfires,
desert and arid-region expansion, greater variability in the timing of monsoons, higher precipitation
levels, and tropical storms and cyclones�probably will encourage countries to develop and use
weather modification technology. Extreme weather eventsa resulting from rising global temperatures
are projected to increase in frequency during the next decade
More than 40 countries have a history of experimentation with weather modification,
primarily by employing precipitation enhancement, hail suppression, and fog dispersal techniques.b
Other countries vulnerable to extreme weather probably already are pursuing weather modification
efforts or will soon do so because the barriers for experimentation are low.
Countries with a history of weather modification efforts are also
vulnerable to extreme weather events during the next 10 years.c
ankn extreme weather event is defined as a one-in-30-year
event�a 3.3-percent chance of occurring�based on a period
of historical observations. The temperature and precipitation
analyses used more than 60 years of observed record data as
the baseline for the projections.
tl precipitation enhancement, hail suppression, and fog
dispersal involve a similar technique, whereby clouds are
seeded�usually by airplane�with aerosols, such as silver
iodide, or a cooling agent, such as dry ice or liquid propane.
The chemicals stimulate coalescence of water molecules and
then create raindrops, snow, or less damaging hail by prompting
early rainout or freeze water droplets to disperse fog.
Regional and country-specific trends in climate extremes
during the next decade are more difficult to project with certainty
than larger geographical, regions and multidecade time scales.
Dot symbols indicate a convergence of evidence across multiple
scientific sources, and we assess the changes are significant
enough to merit attention.
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Worldwide: Extreme Weather Events Likely To
Heighten Onterest in Weather Modification Efforts
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