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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 �Confidential-- DIRECTORATE OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Scientific and Technical Intelligence Report Communist Chinese Cloud Physics and Weather Modification Research . � OSI-STIR/69-3 February 1969 Copy N2 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 WARNING This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. GROUP I Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 CONFIDENTIAL Scientific and Technical Intelligence Report COMMUNIST CHINESE CLOUD PHYSICS AND WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH Project Officers OSI-STIR/69-3 February 1969 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY DIRECTORATE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OFFICE OF SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENCE CON IIDENTIAL (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 -�914F+RENT-ht+ PREFACE Cloud physics and weather modification research is being con- ducted on an increasingly large scale in at least 15 countries in addition to the United States and the USSR. Some ultimate objectives are to improve man's ability to augment precipitation in areas of little or no rainfall, to dissipate fog and low clouds, to prevent or reduce hail formation, and to control or dissipate large storm systems such as hurri- canes and typhoons. In addition, weather modification experimentation has potential military applications. This report is an evaluation of Communist Chinese research in cloud physics and weather modification, with special emphasis on basic theoretical research and cloud seeding programs. The effects of the Cultural Revolution upon Chinese research in these fields are unknown, but their programs probably have been affected to some degree. Little information on basic research has been received since the cessation of publication of the major scientific journals in mid-1966. The present report updates an earlier report on the same subject, and supplements a recent gen- eral study on Chinese meteorology. It was prepared by the Office of Scientific Intelligence and coordinated with the Directorate of Intelli- gence. It is based mainly on a study conducted for OSI \ Information received through October 1968 is included. _CabbLEM kITI AL Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 CONFIDENTIAL CONTENTS Page PREFACE iii PROBLEM CONCLUSIONS 1 SUMMARY DISCUSSION 2 Background 2 Basic theoretical research 3 Laboratory experiments 4 Instrumentation development 4 Field activities 5 Weather modification 5 Data collection 10 UNCLASSIFIED REFERENCES 13 APPENDIX Selected list of organizations and key personnel publishing papers on cloud physics and weather modification between 1958 and 1966 11 TABLES 1. A summary of Chinese sampling techniques 5 2. Listing of selected field cloud seeding experiments 7 FIGURES 1. Hail prevention rockets used in China for hail-cloud control 8 2. Chinese "National Guns" utilized in the modification of hail clouds 9 3. Cartridge with silver iodide and red phosphorus, delivered to the cloud by pilot balloon 9 4. Generator for sublimating a mixture of silver iodide with ace- tone in the nozzle of a jet plane 9 PC-3-03C ( 686/22 ) CONFID (b)(3) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 �CON Fl CHINESE CLOUD PHYSICS AND WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH PROBLEM To evaluate Chinese research in cloud physics and weather modification. CONCLUSIONS 1. The Chinese are substantially behind the lead- ing nations, whose work they have followed closely, in cloud physics and weather modification research. Organization of these efforts on a national scale is not apparent and no orderly, long-range program appears to be in progress. The Chinese have demon- strated little improvement in their weather modi- fication experiments since the late 1950s. They have decreased the number of field experiments and have reported few quantitative measurements. 2. From the early 1960s to mid-1966, the Chinese emphasized basic theoretical studies in cloud phys- ics in an effort to explain cloud dynamics and pre- cipitation processes. Although this research exhibits a wide range of quality, only a limited number of investigators and organizations appear to be capable of producing high-quality theoretical analyses. The Chinese are strongest in the mathematical and analytical aspects of cloud physics and weakest in data collection techniques. This emphasis on a theoretical approach may eventually lead to more significant results than their hapazard experimental work. 3. Few Chinese laboratory experiments in cloud physics have been noted. Of those reported, most were crude and the concepts and instrumentation used were quite similar to those of earlier foreign experiments. 4. Chinese cloud physics and weather modifica- tion instrumentation development is far below the quality and quantity of that of the leading nations. The majority of instruments are of low quality or are prototypes, a major handicap to the Chinese. Ground-sampling techniques predominate. There is little indication that aircraft sampling techniques are used. SUMMARY Communist China has been conducting weather modification experiments since at least 1958. The initial activity, which was prompted by a major drought, consisted of several cloud seeding experi- ments to produce rain. The early experiments, as well as those noted since the late 1950s, were crude, with little or no apparent scientific control. In addi- tion, little basic research was evident in the early stages of this effort. CONrIDENTIAL In the early 1960s fewer experiments were noted and more emphasis was placed on theoretical re- search. Chinese literature at this time consisted mainly of reviews of the work being performed by foreign countries. Typical work of this period was a series of monographs published in 1965 which presented the state-of-the-art and results of Chi- nese studies. These were also intended to serve meteorological workers and educators as reference (b)(3) 1(b)(3) Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 CONFIDENTIAL texts and several were concerned with such aspects of physical meteorology as cloud structure, ice nuclei, and cloud and rain droplet size spectra. Papers were authored by relatively high-level meteorologists, such as Chao Chi-p'ing of the In- stitute of Geophysics and Meteorology, who re- ported in 1963 on the progress of research on cloud current dynamics. Chinese scientific literature up to mid-1966 is characterized by a steady increase in papers on cloud physics research while the number of articles on experimentation has decreased. Most of the Chi- nese cloud physics research, conducted at the Insti- tute of Geophysics and Meteorology by several of their leading meteorologists such as Ku Chen-ch'ao, has been published in Acta Meteorologica Sinica. The published papers show that the Chinese have improved somewhat their theoretical cloud physics research, but most of their work consists of repeti- tions or extensions of previous foreign experiments and has produced nothing outstanding. While their mathematical and analytical work is strong, par- ticularly in stochastic treatment of warm cloud proc- esses, the Chinese have not developed or made good use of radars, computers, aircraft samplers, and other instrumentation. However, some unsophisti- cated cloud physics instruments which are adequate for measurements not requiring high precision have been developed. The improvement in Chinese theo- retical research in cloud physics will probably con- tinue and may lead to more significant achievements in weather modification than the unorganized ex- perimental approach of the early years. There is no evidence of a well coordinated large- scale program in either weather modification or observation systems capable of greatly improving their understanding of the physical processes of clouds. Observational and other hardware limita- tions severely limit Chinese abilities to conduct effective field programs. More recent weather modi- fication attempts also have shown the lack of sci- entific control that was evident in early experiments. Most of the experiments were conducted on a local scale by commune members, usually with the as- sistance of aircraft of the People's Liberation Army. In all cases noted, these activities were in support of local agricultural programs by attempting arti- ficially to produce rain or disperse hail clouds. These experiments reportedly produced good results but their verification techniques have been ques- tionable. Their true success, therefore, is doubtful. This is especially true in their use of "sky-high fire- works" to combat hail. There is a possibility of a chance discovery due to their freedom to seed or otherwise modify clouds at will. They appear to be unaffected by the various political, sociological, and legal restrictions that often exist in other countries. DISCUSSION BACKGROUND Weather modification studies in Communist China began in the late 1950s with a number of crude attempts to modify cloud and precipitation processes, mainly for the purpose of increasing precipitation in agricultural areas. Although these attempts were widespread, no quantitative meas- urements were reported and few attempts at con- trolling the experiments or of measuring their re- sults were noted. Experimentation began because of a severe drought in northeast China. The Twelve Year Plan for Meteorology ( formulated in 1956) included cloud physics research and weather modi- fication. These programs were later affected by the Great Leap Forward, the Soviet withdrawal, and probably the Cultural Revolution.' Through the early 1960s modification attempts diminished and more emphasis was placed on theo- retical studies to examine and explain the basic cloud dynamics and precipitation processes. Rela- tively high-level personnel, such as Ku Chen-ch'ao ( 7457/7261/3390 ) and Chao Chi-p'ing ( 1560/ 4764/1627) were reported to be leading such atmos- pheric physics studies, illustrating their importance to the Chinese.23 A selected list of organizations and key personnel is included as an appendix. Work in the early 1960s centered around the collection of papers relating to Chinese cloud phys- 2 �CertifteEN-T-FAL-- Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 -C-9NfieEt4TVR ics studies which resulted in a series of monographs published in 1965.4 5 These monographs presented the results of selected Chinese studies and were intended to serve as a reference text for meteorolo- gists and educators. While the overall quality of these papers was not high, their significance was in their value as a single-source reference for an in- troduction to some of the problems in cloud physics under investigation. BASIC THEORETICAL RESEARCH The main Chinese effort in cloud physics, subse- quent to the diminished widespread modification experiments of the late 1950s, has been in basic theoretical research. Published Chinese literature on cloud physics research increased after 1959 while the number of articles on weather modifica- tion experiments declined. They rapidly increased their theoretical cloud physics research and this trend may have continued. Although no outstand- ing achievements have thus far resulted, their studies follow closely those of the USSR and the West, and their theoretical approach may lead to more significant achievements in weather modifica- tion than the earlier, more haphazard, field experi- ments. Their mathematical and analytical work is strong, particularly in stochastic treatment of warm cloud processes.� Three of a total of six cloud physics articles published in Acta Meteorologica Sinica in 1966 may be classified as theoretical or basic research. This proportion is roughly indica- tive of their interests and activity during 1963-1965 and is also typical of a series of monographs pub- lished in 1965. One of these articles is related to the coalescence processes occurring in a large scale vertical motion field.1 The second article is a mathematical treat- ment of the earth's electrical field potential and makes computations of the distribution of electrical potential in a vertical cross section of a thunder- storm and at the earth's surface in the vicinity of a thunderstorm.� The results are claimed to be better than those of Wilson ( England) or of Frenkel ( USSR) whose previous work is referenced. This claim, however, is not supported by the paper. The last of the three articles is the latest in a long series of theoretical papers concerning the growth of cloud drops under conditions of small scale fluctuations. This subject and the Chinese emphasis upon warm cumulus cloud growth caused by "fluctuations" were first introduced in a paper by Ku Chen-ch'ao published in 1962. This paper was the first article relating to cloud physics to be published in Acta Meteorologica Sinica. Ku pub- lished four additional articles relating to this effect in Acta Meteorologica Sinica in 1962 and 1963. In his 1963 article he suggested that the concept of gravitational coalescence, which takes into account eddy fluctuations in the vertical currents, repre- sented a more reasonable explanation of rain in warm clouds than other theories do.� Similar ideas had been suggested as early as 1947 in the litera- ture of other nations to explain precipitation from nonfreezing clouds. The Chinese press, however, promoted this idea as a "new precipitation theory ad- vanced by China's 'Young Weather Workers'." 10 11 Other Chinese meteorologists adopted Ku's concept of the effects of fluctuating environments of mois- ture and turbulence, resulting in the appearance of more articles on this topic than any other be- tween 1964-1966. Ku's influence is clearly evident in Chinese investigations and published articles in the cloud physics area. While this would be ex- pected owing to his position as head of the Atmos- pherics Physics Laboratory of the Institute of Geo- physics and Meteorology, the extent of this follow- the-leader attitude is striking and may indicate a reluctance of other Chinese meteorologists to strike out on their own. The latest example of the continuing Chinese interest in warm cloud precipitation theory is a mathematical treatment of the probability of con- tinuous growth of cloud drops published in June 1966.12 The authors' conclusions were that, while vertical motion fluctuations were dominant in con- densation processes to about the 20 micron size, fluctuations in moisture content plays the principal role in stochastic growth of droplets beyond 20 microns by continuous coalescence. Ku Chen-ch'ao's guidance and encouragement are acknowledged.12 The complexity of the mathematical treatment of the problem is more impressive than the conclu- sions which are simply more refined explanations of Ku's earlier conclusions. An earlier article deserves mention because of its further indication that the Chinese have at least a few scientists working in the Institute of Geophysics under Ku who are capable of performing high-level theoretical research. This article, published in CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 3 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 CONFIDENTIAL 1964, is excellent and concerns the development of a three-dimensional model for cumulus cloud growth.13 It is noteworthy that calculations for the model were reportedly carried out on an unidenti- fied computer. Computers available to Chinese me- teorologists prior to this time appear to have been almost exclusively reserved for numerical weather prediction work. Although published Chinese work indicates a wide range of scientific quality, only a limited number of personnel and organizations ap- pear capable of producing high-quality theoretical analyses. LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS Few Chinese laboratory experiments in cloud physics have been reported. Perhaps the most notable work reported recently (1966) was con- ducted at the Lan-chou Institute of Geophysics on the investigation of the growth of frost needles on the surface of frozen water drops in an electric field.14 The instrument setup was relatively simple and utilized easily accessible items. The experiment was well conceived but the author admitted that it was an extension of a Soviet experiment con- ducted in 1962. The Soviet experiment showed that the growth of frost needles by deposition of super- cooled fog droplets in the presence of an electric field is accompanied by electrification of the drop- lets, but quantitative measurements were not made." The Chinese measurements of this elec- trification resulted in values an order of magnitude higher than those of British investigators published in 1963. The Chinese investigators suggest their results may offer a clue to a better understanding of the electrification mechanism in thunderstorms. The work would have been more significant if the concept and the instrumentation were original rather than similar to those used in previous foreign experiments. A second article on laboratory experimentation published in 1966 was a report on chloride particle detection studies by Yeh Chia-tung ( 0673/1367/ 2639) of the Department of Meteorology, Nanking University.16 Yeh discussed microscopic investiga- tions of the reaction halo enlargement of chloride particles collected on gelatin films. These investiga- tions resulted in an empirical relationship between the enlargement factor and the diameter of the chloride particle. Results of this experiment ap- parently were intended to correct size distributions of chloride particles collected via the film processes. The chloride particles were probably selected for study because of the use of salt or salt water in several Chinese cloud-seeding experiments and be- cause of their importance as naturally occurring condensation nuclei. INSTRUMENTATION DEVELOPMENT Chinese cloud physics instrumentation is con- siderably inferior in quality and quantity to that of the United States, the USSR, and several other countries. The Chinese can make some relatively simple measurements, but their lack of sufficient quantities of sophisticated instruments is a major handicap in improving their knowledge of cloud physics processes and weather modification work. Minimal use has been made of radars, computers, airborne instrumentation or of other observation systems which could greatly improve their under- standing.� None of the articles in the last issues of Acta Meteorologica Sinica (first two volumes of 1966) pertain to cloud physics or weather modification instrumentation development. During 1965, how- ever, four articles were noted, three of which de- scribed actual Chinese developments. In the other, Ku Chen-ch'ao discussed the problems associated with determining the location of "thunder-lightning" utilizing a single-station detector, but offered no solution to these problems.17 No implication of actual instrument design or development activities in this general area can be inferred, but a review by Ku indicates the kind of high-level interest which sometimes precedes Chinese development. One of the 1965 articles included a discussion on an improvement in the Chinese cloud-droplet sampler for utilization at ground level that extends the sampling period from 2 seconds to 2 minutes and has an adjustable exposure. In addition, the drums containing the sampling tapes are motor- driven rather than hand-driven. A prototype of this still rather crude instrument was built for field data collection in 1964.18 This is typical of Chinese attempts to improve crude instruments. Admitted shortcomings of operational inconvenience, lack of a dehumidifying mechanism, and bulkiness probably have prevented its quantity production. The em- phasis on ground observation equipment for cloud sampling in this and other articles probably indi- 4 �"CONftl3C-114T-IAL-- Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 CONFIDENTIAL cates only limited use of aircraft for sampling pro- grams. Another paper was concerned with the develop- ment of a special radiosonde for probing electric fields in thunderclouds." The advantages over air- craft soundings, however, seem hardly worthwhile unless such measurements are to be made on a routine, high-density basis, and this again may illus- trate aircraft restrictions for atmospheric research. In any event, only five soundings were reported, and this development as recently as 1965 appeared to be of a prototype nature. The third cloud physics instrumentation develop- ment reported in 1965 is that of an atmospheric ice nuclei counter consisting of a cloud chamber. The chamber was reported to perform satisfactorily and to be under experimental production at the Shang- hai Refrigerator Plant;2� however, none of the field investigations described in Chinese articles are re- ported to have utilized this instrument. An earlier ( 1964) development of a laboratory instrument for determining the electric charge of cloud droplets relied on the deposition of charged cloud droplets on a sampling plate and a subse- quent determination of their deflection in an electric field.21 The instrument was tested using a spray of water in a laboratory and is not suitable for field use. No subsequent mention of the instrument has been found. A summary of known Chinese sampling tech- niques for determining size and/or concentration of precipitation elements and atmospheric nuclei appears in table 1. FIELD ACTIVITIES Weather modification Weather modification in China began in the late 1950s with a number of crude attempts to modify clouds and precipitation. Through the early 1960s, modification attempts decreased and theoretical studies were given more attention. While some modification attempts have continued, they are usually isolated activities connected with agricul- tural activities. There is no evidence of any large- scale well-controlled field program. Although a large number of Chinese who are familiar with Western and Soviet modification techniques have been in- volved in the work, they have a limited ability to operate effective field programs.� Table 1 A Summary of Chinese Sampling Techniques TECHNIQUE ELEMENT MEASURED WHERE MEASURED REFERENCE Spot (Halo) Chloride particles Probably ground AMS,* 36(2), 1966 Filter paper Raindrops Ground CPIG,* * 10, 1965 Blotting paper Raindrops Ground CPIG, 10, 1965 Sugar solution Atmospheric nuclei Ground AMS, 35(4), 1965 Aluminum foil Ice and snow crystals Aircraft AMS, 35(4), 1965 Aluminum foil Ice and snow crystals Aircraft AMS, 35(3), 1965 ,Aluminum oxide or soot film on movie film Ice nuclei Ground AMS, 35(2), 1965 Photographic paper Small raindrops Probably ground AMS, 33(4), 1965 * Acta Meteorologica Sinica ** Collected Papers of the Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology �er.711.FITTE 5 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 �CONfli3C44T-IAL� The earliest attempts at producing rain from clouds were prompted by extreme periods of drought and took place mainly in Kirin and Kansu Provinces. Routine methods were employed in which various materials such as carbon dioxide, salt, quicklime water, salt solution, silver iodide, and sodium iodide were used as seeding materials. Mili- tary aircraft and ground-based and balloon-borne generators were utilized to dispense the materials. Positive results were reported but no scientific con- trol of the experiments was indicated.' 22 Infrequent reports were noted during the 1960- 1964 period. These included reviews of foreign weather modification attempts with different tech- niques and materials and contained several refer- ences to Chinese experiments in cloud seeding to produce rain. One activity in the Shanghai area in 1964 reportedly produced heavy rains.23-26 The seed- ing of summer cumulus clouds in Hunan Province reportedly took place in 1963. A total of 62 attempts were made in which powdered salt was injected into thick cumulus clouds. Of these tests, 11 re- sulted in precipitation in the thick cumulus state, 25 in the incus ( anvil shaped), six in only virga ( evaporating rain), and six in cloud dispersal. Three tests showed no effects and the results in the rest could not be observed. These results, com- pared with earlier Chinese data, were claimed to be in agreement with US data.27 The Nationalist Chinese reported in 1964 that rainmaking experi- ments had taken place over Hainan Island and sev- eral other areas but no details were given.28 The most recent reports of field weather modifica- tion were noted in widely separated publications. One, a New China News Agency article of Sep- tember 1967, indicated that "man-made rain" had recently fallen on farming districts around Shang- hai. The seeding was reported to have been ac- complished by People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft in response to a threat to crops due to a dry spe11.29 No mention of seeding material, techniques, or numerical results was made, and it is important to note that the crew "worked around the clock to equip the plane with artificial precipitation devices." This indicates that planes equipped with such de- vices were not available on a standby, or opera- tional, basis, but the implication of operational utilization of cloud seeding to produce precipita- tion is inherent. On 28 December 1967 the Peking New China News Agency also reported on artificial seeding of rain clouds in Chekiang Province. Wen-chou, Li- shin and other areas in the hilly region of southern Chekiang suffered a 150-day drought and artificial seeding operations were carried out in the areas by the PLA Air Force for more than 20 days. Al- though no results of the experiment were reported, the report implied that a bumper harvest, achieved despite the worst drought in 100 years, was at least partially due to the cloud seeding activity.30 The next mention of cloud modification attempts was included in recent press accounts of a new Chi- nese hero, Men Ho. Men was publicized throughout China as a true supporter of Mao and a "brilliant example for all revolutionary cadres in the party, the country, and the Army to follow." Men was a deputy political instructor of an Army unit in Tsinghai Province. He reportedly lost his life while assisting in the preparation of explosives for rockets to be used for dispersing clouds to prevent the for- mation of crop-destroying hail. No other details of this experiment were reported except that native rockets were being readied for launch.31-33 Two earlier news releases from the Chengchow Domestic Service, 18 November 1966, reported on two rainmaking experiments in Honan.34 These so- called experiments also appear to have an opera- tional overtone since they were conducted to relieve drought in specific areas, in October and Novem- ber of 1966, and since none of the detailed measure- ments normally associated with scientific experiment were mentioned. These operations, plus those pre- viously mentioned, indicate that the Chinese experi- ments are mainly carried out in areas that are undergoing drought conditions. This attitude is in contrast to that of the US practice wherein broad experimentation is underway but with a slower, more scientific approach to operational utilization. It should be noted, however, that private concerns in the United States are operationally active in rainmaking activities on a much larger scale than the total of the reported Chinese activities. A list- ing of selected Chinese cloud seeding experiments is included in table 2. A field operation similar to that in which Men Ho was involved was reported in a news release of 1966, and while apparently occurring in the sum- mer of 1965, it is probably representative of 83 hail- 6 CONIIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 CONFIDENTIAL Table 2 Listing of Selected Field Cloud Seeding Experiments WHERE-WHEN Nanking area, Nov 58 Various areas in China, 58 Peking area, 58 Lesser We-tai Mountain, 58 Kansu Province Kirin Province, Aug-Sep 58 Wu-han region 58 Hunan Province, Summer 63 Near Shanghai, Winter 63-64 Hainan Island, 64 Shanghai, 64( ?) Shang-chin and other cities, Honan Province Chi County, Honan Province, 12 Nov 66 Near Shanghai, Sep 67 Southern Chekiang Province, 67 * Acta Meteorologica Sinica REPORTED BY Anhwei Province Arti- ficial Precipitation Working Group Central Meteorological Observatory, Meteorological Bureau Hopeh Province Hopeh Provincial Weather Bureau Kansu Provincial Arti- ficial Precipitation Working Group Kirin Province Artificial Precipitation Working Group Wu-han Investigators of Central Meteorological Bureau and Hunan Provincial Weather Bureau Yeh Chia-tung Nationalist Chinese Liu Tzu-chi Chengchow Domestic ( News ) Service Chengchow Domestic ( News ) Service NCNA, Peking NCNA, Peking WHERE REPORTED AMS,* 30 (1), Feb 59 AMS, 30 (3), Aug 59 AMS, 30 ( 1), Feb 59 AMS, 30 (1), Feb 59 AMS, 30 (1), Feb 59 AMS, 30 (1), Feb 59 AMS, 30 (1), Feb 59 AMS, 35 (3), Aug 65 Science Pictorial, No 3, Mar 64 Classified report Aeronautical Knowl- edge, No 12, Dec 64 FBIS, 22 Nov 66 FBIS, 22 Nov 66 FBIS, 8 Sep 67 FBIS, Dec 67 REMAIUCS Dry-ice at 5,600 meters to form clouds Summary report Dry-ice and salt solution (dis- persal study) Silver iodide (fog dispersal)' Artificial pre- cipitation and cloud dispersal 20 Aerial, dry-ice seedings to produce precipitation Salt solution dry-ice to produce precipitation Salt-powder seeding of cumulus Seeding to produce artificial snow No details By PLA Air Force, resulted in heavy rain By PLA Air Force, to produce rain in drought area By PLA Air Force, to produce rain in drought areas By PLA Air Force to produce rain in drought area By PLA Air Force for more than 20 days to produce rain in drought area -CONFI�DENT-1-AL---- Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 dispersal operations conducted from 1960 to 1965 in Mien-fling County, Szechwan Province. The use of locally-made rockets ( actually fireworks) was noted to have been ineffective prior to 1959. Im- proved multistage "sky-high fireworks" capable of achieving heights of 2,000 meters ( 6,500 feet) be- fore explosion have been in use since then. These improved rockets were reported to have dispersed hailclouds without hail formation in 78 of 83 at- tempts. A firing network was organized to launch a thousand rockets whenever a hailstorm was re- ported to be imminent.35 Based on similar Western and Soviet work, such experiments have little effect on a hail-producing cloud. A similar, possibly re- lated report appeared in a Hong Kong publication in 1966. The author discussed rockets used to com- bat hail in Wan-ning County, Szechwan Province. These were single and two-stage rockets weighing a little over an ounce and slightly over a pound respectively. The propellant chamber was made of strawboard and the launching pad of wood. The rocket reportedly produced a strong pulse wave upon exploding at altitudes of 1 to 2 km ( see fig- ure 1).36 No mention of similar activities in other areas has been reported. Evaluation of the claims for this form of hail suppression is difficult to make, but the reported results are exceedingly doubtful FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Figure 1. Hail prevention rockets used in China for hail-cloud control. 75142 12-68 since the rockets could not reach the freezing levels. The Chinese claimed, however, that dispersal was caused by the sound waves resulting from the ex- plosions. The firing of so-called "National Guns" for mod- ifying hail clouds also has been reported and evi- dently has been in use for some time. These guns consisted of iron tubes which were filled with black powder and packed with felt wadding. They were mounted on wooden supports, aimed in the di- rection of a cloud, and fired. The Chinese attributed control of a cloud by this means to the sound waves produced by the explosion ( see figure 2).36 Other countries, such as the USSR, Italy, and other European countries, have tried explosive sup- pression, and some success has been claimed. The Soviet attempts, which utilize artillery firings of ice-producing nuclei into specified portions of a potential hailcloud, are reasonably well docu- mented with data. In comparison, the Chinese techniques are crude, and their claims appear to be exaggerated. Furthermore, reported Chinese ef- forts in hail prevention are minor in comparison with those of the USSR." Other Chinese attempts at hail prevention more scientific in nature include the aircraft dispersal of silver iodide, pilot-balloon-lofted cartridges con- taining silver iodide, and jet aircraft burning silver and acetone. In the latter, the silver iodide and acetone are mixed in an airborne generator and the mixture fed into the aircraft's nozzle where it is sublimated ( see figures 3 and 4).36 It is not pos- sible to evaluate the significance of this technique because of insufficient information. No other recent Chinese field experiments have been noted. The final volume of Acta Meteorologica Sinica was largely devoted to cloud physics articles, and no mention was made of either an experimental or operational weather modification study or proj- ect. The last published deeding experiments which reported cloud measurements occurred during the winter of 1963-1964 near Shanghai. The objective of that experiment was to produce snow from strat- iform clouds and it was reported to be successful on a small scale.37 The almost compete lack of scientific articles subsequent to the summer of 1966 makes a current evaluation of Chinese field operations and experi- CONIIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 �C-eNftt7ErqTrAr- 75143 12-68 (b)(3) Figure 2. Chinese "National Guns" utilized in the modification of hail clouds. 1. Ignition fuse 2. Case 3. Incendiary mixture 4. Cartridge primer Figure 3. Cartridge with silver iodide and red phos- phorus, delivered to the cloud by pilot balloon. 75144 12-68 ments difficult. It appears unlikely that the re- cently reported attempts to operationally increase rainfall in local areas are the only experiments conducted during the past few years. Despite the continuance of this type of activity, it is doubtful that the Chinese have made much improvement in their relatively low standing in field activities as compared with other nations. However, due to their ability to test without regard to the political, legal, and sociological constraints imposed in other countries, such as the United States, the possibility of a chance breakthrough does exist. Until their experimentation measurements are improved, it ap- (b)(3) (b)(3) 1. Compressed air 2. Jet plane nozzle 3. Atomization chamber Figure 4. Generator for sublimating a mix- ture of silver iodide with acetone in the nozzle of a jet plane. 75145 12-68 pears that only a major change in cloud and/or precipitation patterns resulting from their experi- ments would be detected by the Chinese. No recent reports have been noted which would reflect Chinese work on the dispersal of clouds and fog. Some tests were indicated, however, by reports presented at the 1962 annual meeting of the Chinese Meteorological Society. Although no progress in this area is known, the Chinese would have little difficulty applying well-known techniques to supercooled clouds and fogs with Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 9 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 results similar to those achieved by other coun- tries.28 Data Collection The Chinese have concentrated their efforts in cloud physics data collection in the field on cloud and precipitation droplet size measurements, nuclei measurements, thunderstorm electrical fields data, and, to a very limited degree, radar analyses of hailstorms. Some cloud temperature and turbulence data have also been collected in conjunction with the above measurements. Overall, the number of field data collection ac- tivities reported in the Chinese literature is small, and these data collections generally lack the scope and complexity typical of the programs in other countries. The lack of, or failure to assign, aircraft, sophisticated measurement devices, and computers for use in these activities to any significant degree is obvious in their efforts. This deficiency prevents the Chinese from being able to adequately verify their more extensive theoretical models or to properly evaluate their weather modification efforts. While this might be taken to indicate a low priority for the activities, it is more probably due to the lack of necessary equipment. One reasonably complete field collection of cloud data utilizing aircraft occurred in the Kirin area of northeast China in the late spring and early summer of 1963. Fifteen flights were conducted to observe ice and snow crystals in precipitating cold stratus using an aluminum foil sampling de- vice. The aircraft could not reach altitudes with temperatures lower than �150C.38 For the latitude of Kirin, 45�N, this temperature would result in an altitude limitation of approximately 15,000 feet during the late spring and early summer. Whether this limitation was due to aircraft ceiling, personnel limitation (lack of oxygen devices), or other causes is not known, but earlier seeding flights have men- tioned the lack of oxygen supply for personnel. Two other examples of field data collection re- ported in 1966 consisted of ground observations of electric field variations near thunderstorm clouds and analyses of radar echoes from hailstorms.3940 The electric field observations were taken in the summer of 1963 in Kansu Province, and the radar echo analyses and associated surface ob- servations were for ten hailstorms near Peking in 1964. Studies of radar echoes from thunderstorms in the Tai-shan area in the summer of 1962 were published in 1965.41 Additional collections dur- ing this time period involved ground observations of nuclei42 43 and cloud-fog droplets or crystals." Neither the instrumentation used nor the reported results would contribute significantly to a better understanding of cloud or precipitation processes. The majority of the Chinese data collection opera- tions have been small in scope and duration, and very minor when compared to similar activities in the advanced nations. 10 -eetifeENT4,61_ Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 APPENDIX Selected list of organizations and key personnel publishing papers on cloud physics and weather modification between 1958 and 1966.2-5 41 Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, Academy of Sciences, Peking Ch'an Li-shan (6124/7787/3790) Chang Kuang-lcun (?) Chao Chi-ping (1560/4764/1627) Chao Yen-ts'eng (6392/3601/2582) Ch'en Jul-jung (7115/3843/2837) Chen Shui-yung (?) Ch'en Wan-kuei (?) Ch'en Yen-chuan (7115/3508/3197) Cheng Ta-chou (6774/6671/1558) Chiang Pen-t'ang (?) Chou Hsiao-ping (0719/2556/1627) Chou Hsiu-chi (0719/4423/7535) Chou Shih-chien (0719/6108/1696) Chu Chen-hua* (?) Ho Chen-chen (0149(3791/3791) * Affiliation not definitely established ** Foreign educated Hsueh Wei-kuang (6200/1218/0342) Hsu Ching-fang* (1776/5478/5391) Hu Kuang-hsing (5170/1684/5281) Huan Chung-chia (?) Huang Mei-yuan** (7806/5019/0337) Hung Chung-hsiang (3163/6945/4382) Jen Li-hsin (0117/7787/2450) Ku Chen-ch'ao** (7357/7201/3390) Kuei P'ei-lan (2981/0160/5695) Kung Chili-pen (7895/4249/2609) Li Cheng-hung (?) Li Hsing-sheng (2621/5281/3932) Li Kuei-ch'en* ** (?) Shih K'o-chao (?) T'ao Li-chun (7118/7787/0689) Wen Ching-sung (3306/2529/1529) Yuan Chen* (?) Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, Lan-chou Branch, Academy of Sciences Chang Mi (1728/3055/1378) Chao Chien-p'ing (6392/0494/1627) Ch'en Ch'ien (7115/5541) Ch'en Tsai-hua (7115/0961/5478) Cheng Hsiao-p'ing (4453/4607/1627) Fan Ts'ung-yuan* (5400/1783/3293) * Affiliation not definitely established Hsiao Yu-jen (1115/7183/0086) Hsu Chia-liu (1776/1367/7511) Huang Meng-jung (7806/1322/1369) Kuo Ch'ang-ming (6753/2490/2494) Lai Te-chin (6351/1795/3160) Liu Chung-lin (0491/6945/7227) T'ang Shu-fen* (3282/2885/5358) Wang Wan-chung (3769/5502/6945) Wang Yu-hsi (3782/3768/3886) Institute of Meteorological Research, Central Meteorological Bureau Cheng Ch'un-shu (4453/4783/2873) Observatory, Central Meteorological Bureau Fang Ta-hsiung (2455/1129/7160) Hsiung Kuang-ying (3574/0342/1041) Hsu Huan-pin (6079/3562/2430) Kao Ming-jen (7559/2494/1804) Ma Pei-ming (7456/1014/3046) Sun I-min (1327/1150/2404) Yu Lai-kuang (1429/0171/0342) Provincial Weather Bureau, Central Meteorological Bureau Kirin Chang Wan-chun* (1728/8001/6874) Hsiung Shang-ch'ing* (3574/1424/3237) (also noted at University of Science and Technology) * Also noted at Kirin Provincial Meteorological Research Institute Wang Hsueh-lin* (3076/1331/2651) Hunan Chao Jui-hua (6392/3843/5478) Hsueh Fan-ping (5641/5603/3521) Lou Fu-cheng (1236/4395/2052) NTIAL Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 11 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 ENTIAL Kinin Province Institute of Meteorological Research, Central Meteorological Bureau Sun K'o-fu (1327/0668/1381) Institute of Calculation (Computer) Technology, Academy of Sciences Chang Yao-k'o (1728/5069/4430) Kung Tseng-chin (7895/1073/6930) The University of Science and Technology of China Ch'en Hsi-ming (7115/6932/2494) Ch'en Ying-i (7115/5391/0308) Chin Jen-ch'ung (4440/0088/1813) * Affiliation not definitely established Chao Po-lin** (6392/2672/2651) Feng Chih-hsien ( ?) ** Foreign educated Hu Yin-ch'iao (5170/5593/2884) Jung Pei-ying ( ?) * Affiliation not definitely established Hsiung Shang-ch'ing ( 3574/1424/3237) Kuo Yu-fu (6753/5940/1381) Lin Hai (2651/3189) Shih Wai-lcuang* ( ?) Wu Chin-yo (?) Department of Geophysics, Peking University Hsieh Fan-ping ( ?) Hsueh Fan-ping (5641/0416/3521) Department of Geophysics, Peking University Li Ch'i-ch'en (2621/0366/3819) Lin Chi-tsang* ( ?) Mao Chieh-t'ai (3029/4634/3141) Ting Jung-hang (0002/2837/5328) 12 CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 �CONF-1�60ENT-tAr UNCLASSIFIED REFERENCES The abbreviations AMS and CRL are used in this reference list for the Chinese journal Acta Meteorologica Sinica (Chi-hsiang Hsueh-pao) and Cambridge Research Laboratory. 1. National Science Foundation. Weather Modification, NSF 62-27, 1962 2. Commerce. ESSA, EDS, Yao, A.Y.M., Bibliography on Cloud Physics in Mainland China, 10 Jun 66 3. Air. CRL, Research Monograph, EMM-67-167, Dec 67 4. Air. CRL, EMM-66-102( a ), Monograph No 10, 1965, Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, Academy of Sci- ences, Peking. (Also JPRS: 35,142, 21 Apr 66) 5. Air. CRL, EMM-66-101( a ), Monograph No 11, 1965, Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, Academy of Sci- ences, Peking. (Also JPRS: 34,725, 25 Mar 66) 7. JPRS: 38,772, 23 Nov 66, p 10 Wen Ching-sung, "The Random Growth of Cloud Droplets Under the Con- ditions of Large-Scale Vertical Currents," AMS, v 36, no 2, Jun 66, p 280-282 8. Air. CRL, EMM-67-165, Sep 67. Li Chi-chen and Lin Chi-tsang, "Problems on the Geographical Distribution of the Atmospheric Electric Field Induced by Thunder- storm Activities," AMS, v 36, no 2, Jun 66, p 275-79 9. Air. CRL, EMM-67-167, Dec 67, p 47-48. Hsu Hua- ying and Ku Chen-ch'ao, "Precipitation Produced by Gravi- tational Coalescence in Shallow Warm Clouds under Fluc- tuating Conditions," AMS, v 33, no 1, Feb 63, p 108-114 10. Peoples Daily (Jen-min Jih-pao), Peking. "China's Young Weather Workers Present New Theory on Rain," 19 Aug 65 p 2 11. JPRS: 41,591, 28 Jun 67, p 14. Wen Ching-sung, "A New Theory on How Cloud Becomes Rain," Science Pictorial (K'o-hsueh Hua-pao), no 10, Oct 65, p 329-330 12. Air. CRL, EMM-67-155, Jun 67. Hsu Ch'ing-fang, Li Kuei-ch'en, Wen Ching-sung, "Markov Process in the Continuous Growth of Cloud Drops under Conditions of Small-Scale Fluctuations and its Effect on the Develop- ment of Cumulonimbus," AMS, v 36, no 2, Jun 66, p 243-248 13. Chou Hsiao-p'ing, Li Hsing-shang, Chang Yao-k'o, and Kung Tseng-chin, "A Numerical Experiment of Cumu- lus Development," AMS, v 34, no 4, Nov 64, p 475-484 14. Air. CRL, EMM-67-163. Cheng Hsiao-ping, Chen Hsien, and Hsia Yu-jen, "An experiment on the Electrifica- tion and Growth of Frost Needles on the Surface of Frozen Water Drops in an Electric Field," AMS, v 36, no 2, Jun 66, p 231-236 15. Muchnik, V. M., et al. "Formation of Hoarfrost on Frozen Water Drops in an Electric Field," Geophysics Series, News of the Academy of Sciences, USSR (Akademie Nauk SSSR, Izvestiya, Ser. Geofiz), v 10, 1962, p 1450-1452 16. JPRS: 38,772, 23 Nov 66, p 5. Yeh Chia-tung. "Prob- lem of Enlargement Regarding the Spot ( or Halo) Method of Detecting Airborne Chloride Particles," AMS, v 36, no 2, Jun 66, p 223-230 17. JPRS: 233,759, 17 Jan 66, p 64-73. Ku Chen-ch'ao. "Problem of Single Weather Station to Report Location of Thunder Lightening Activities," Scientia (K'o-hsueh T'ung-pao), no 11, Nov 65 p 923-925 18. Air. CRL, EMM-67-154, Jun 67. Huang Mei-yuan, et al. "A Cloud Droplet Sampler for Continuous Operation at Ground Level," AMS, v 35, no 2, May 1965, p 257-262 19. Air. CRL, EMM-67-167, Dec 67, p 191. Yuan Chen, et al. "A Special Radiosonde For Probing Strong Electric Fields and an Analysis of Electric Field Soundings in Thunderclouds," AMS, v 35, no 4, Nov 65, p 440-448 20. Chang Mi, Kuo Chang-ming, et al. "Atmospheric Ice- Nuclei Counter," Scientific Instruments (K'o-hsueh I-ch'i), Peking, v 3, no 10, 1965, p 467-471 21. Air. CRL, EMM-66-129, Feb 67, p 21. Chao Yen- tseng, et al. "An Instrument for Determining the Spectra of the Electric Charge of Cloud Droplets," AMS, v 34, no 4, Nov 64, p 531-538 22. Kuang Chili-pen. "Some Problems for the Deter- mination of Atmospheric Integrated Absorption Functions from Laboratory Absorption Measurements," Acta Geo- physica Sinica (Ti-chiu Wu-li Hsueh-pao), v 14, no 1, 1965, p 1-13 23. JPRS: 42,669, 19 Sep 67. Popular Science (K'o- hsueh Ta-chung), no 2, Feb 61, p 87, 88 24. JPRS: 44,189, 30 Jan 68. Science Pictorial (K'o- hsueh Hua-pao), no 4, Apr 61, p 88, 99 25. JPRS: 44,513, 27 Feb 68. Science Pictorial (K'o- hsueh Hua-pao), no 3, Mar 62, p 89 26. Aeronautical Knowledge (Hang-kung Chih-shih), Peking, no 12, Dec 64, p 22, 23 27. Air. CRL, EMM-67-167, Dec 67. Ma Pei-min, et al. "Analysis of Experiments Of Cumulus-Congestus Cloud Seeding with Salt Powder in Hunan Province During the Summer of 1963," AMS, v 35, no 3, Aug 65, p 280-291 29. FBIS. Communist China, "PLA Brings Rain to Drought Plagued Districts," Peking, NCNA, 8 Sep 67 31. Peking Review, no 23, 7 Jun 68 32. FBIS. Communist China, 31 May 68. Peking, NCNA, 29 May 68 33. FBIS. Communist China, 4 Jun 68. Peking, NCNA, 31 May 68 34. FBIS. FE, 22 Nov 66. "Honan Conducts Two Rain- making Experiments," Chengchow Domestic Service, 18 Nov 66 35. FBIS. FE, 13 Jan 66. "Szechwan Peasants Combat Hail with Rockets," Peking, NCNA, 12 Jan 66 CONFIDWIAI Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06541156 13 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 CONFInENTIAL 36. Library of Congress. Aerospace Technology Division, Michaels, D. W., "Hail Prevention Research," ATD-68-26- 101-1, 8 Dec 67 37. JPRS: 43,872, 4 Jan 68, p 10-14. Yeh Chia-tung, "Cloud Seeding for Snow," Science Pictorial (K'o-hsueh Hua-pao ), no 3, Shanghai, March 64, p 102, 103 38. JPRS: 39,684, 27 Jan 67. Sun K'o-fu and Yu Lai- kuang, "Ice and Snow Crystals in Precipitation Cold Stratus of Kirin Area from April through June 1963," AMS, v 35, no 3, Aug 65, p 265-272 39. JPRS: 38,772, 23 Nov 66, p 6. Fan Ts'ung-yuan, et al. "Electric Field Variations of Thunderstorm Cloud and Sleet (or Hail) Cloud in the area of South Kansu," AMS, v 36, no 2, Jun 66, p 237-242 40. JPRS: 38,772, 23 Nov 66, p 4. Ko Jun-sheng, "Radar Analysis of the Hail of Peking in 1964," AMS, v 36, no 2, Jun 66, p 213-222 41. JPRS: 34,725, 25 Mar 66. T'ao Li-chun and Kuei P'ei-lan, "Preliminary Analysis of the Radar Echoes of Sev- eral Thunderstorms in the T'ai-shan Area in July and Au- gust, 1962," Monograph no 11, 1965, Institute of Geo- physics and Meteorology, Academy of Sciences, Peking 42. Air. CRL, EMM-67-167, Dec 67. Wang Hsueh-lin, et al. "Ice Nuclei over the Pai-cheng Area in Spring," AMS, v 35, no 3, Aug 65, p 273-279 43. Air. CRL, EMM-67-167, Dec 67. Chao Chien-p'ing, et al. "An Analysis of samples of Atmospheric Nuclei over China," AMS, v 35, no 4, Nov 65, p 416-422 44. Air. CRL, EMM-67-167, Dec 67. Hsu Huan-pin, "A Preliminary Study of the Fluctuations of the Micro- physical Structure of Clouds and Fog in Heng Shan," AMS, v 34, no 4, Nov 64, p 539-547 14 CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 (b)(3) DISTRIBUTION No. OF COPIES RECIPIENT 1 Special Assistant to The President for Science and Technology 10 Department of State 165 Defense Intelligence Agency 2 Atomic Energy Commission 10 National Security Agency 1 U.S. Information Agency 1 National Science Foundation 2 DCI Area 51 DDS&T Area 41 DDI Area 5 DDS Area 6 DDP Area Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 006541156