KEY CURRENT WARNING ISSUES

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06570268
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: September 18, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-00031
• Publication Date: January 22, 2001

Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C06570268
TOP ORE'
SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
22 January 2001
PASS SEIB 01-017CHX
Key Current Warning Issues
The DCI Strategic Warning Committee considers the following the most
critical warning issues over the next few weeks.
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC): The assassination of
President Kabila has thrown the future of the DROC and its leadership
into a period of great uncertainty and potential violence. Kabila's son,
Army Maj. Gen. Joseph Kabila, has been appointed to run the
government, but, with no clear line of succession to provide legitimacy,
it is difficult to assess who will emerge as the country's permanent
leader. A new leader may emerge quickly, supported by the DROC's
influential Angolan and Zimbabwean allies--one ready to support their
goal of a negotiated settlement to the conflict in order to consolidate his
new position. Conversely, a new leader may be as hard line as Kabila
and continue to seek the military defeat of the rebels. Lastly, Kabila's
departure may usher in a long period of jockeying for political power in
Kinshasa, resulting in a leadership vacuum that the rebels and their
foreign allies can take advantage of on the battlefield.
Yugoslavia: Belgrade has reinforced security elements in the Presevo
Valley in southern Serbia and seems poised to move against the
insurgents in the safety zone separating Kosovo from Serbia. A move to
clear the zone of insurgents, however, is likely to be deferred as long as
the situation remains relatively calm and a negotiated settlement appears
possible. The Serbs are also hoping that KFOR will be able to suppress
the ethnic Albanian insurgents now operating in the safety zone. An
upsurge in attacks by the insurgents would strain Belgrade's patience
and may lead to a Serbian military reaction.
TO CRET
Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C06570268
Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C06570268
TOP CRET
(b)(3)
The DCI Strategic Warning Committee, chaired by the National
Intelligence Officer for Warning comprises representatives from the
Directors of the National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence
Agency, and the National Imagery and Mapping Agency; the Assistant
Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research; and the De
Director for Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
TO ECRET
Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C06570268
(b)(3)