NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06726995
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: April 10, 2019
• Case Number: F-2017-01565
• Publication Date: March 22, 1982

Approved for Release: 2019/03/26 C06726995
� Director Of
( ent rat
Intelligence
A:co_ _ ifirit)
National Intelligence Daily
Monday
22 March 1982
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ToMM�Stv�Ful____
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CO NW 82-067JX
TCS 2767182
22 March 1981
Copy 2 6 3
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Warning Notice
This Document Not To Be Reproduced
Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(WN)
National Security Unauthorized Disclosur:
Information Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Disaetninaboa Control
Abbreviations
NOFORN (NF)
NOCONTRACT (NC)
PROPIN (PR)
ORCON (0C)
Not releasable to foreign nationals
Not releasable to contractors or contractor/consultants
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Dissemination and extraction of information
by originator
REL... This information has been authorized for release to...
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WN WNINTEL�Intelligence sources and methods involved
The National Intelligence Daily is prepared in the
Central Intelligence Agency in cooperation with the other
US foreign intelligence organizations. Analytical feature
articles arc attributed to their authors.
This page is
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Contents
Central America: Salvadoran Insurgent Offensive
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TCS 2767/8
22 March 1982
1
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(b)(3)
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Guatemala
Ana Ohalaten
f
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Insurgent concentration
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SAN SALVADOR'
El Salvador
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Nicaragua
83.42. 3.82
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(b)(3:
CENTRAL AMERICA: Salvadoran Insurgent Offensive
The guerrillas' last-ditch erfen!: to dime jt the elections to
Le ;:eld next Sunda?, i3 to L-egin The Du tc h journalists
hilled last week in El Salvador au.arenti;j were not murdered.
;Iicaragua believes a widening conflict in Central America ls pos-
eibl..= if the Salvadoran insurgents are able to disrupt tke elections.
The joint insurgent command headquarters in Nicaragua
to all insurgent factions outlining
precise objectives for the general offensive scheduled (b)(1)
to begin with a guerrilla attack on the major
cities of Usulutan and San Francisco. (b)(1) (b)(3)
San Miguel is to be raided. Then San Salva-b
dor, Santa Ana, San Vicente, and Chalatenango are to be
attacked.
The units involved are to commit all their materiel
and resources to the offensive in an effort to take and
hold positions in the cities or their surrounding lower
class neighborhoods. They also are to seek to mobilize
as much popular support as possible to aid their opera-
tions.
Nevertheless, there already has been some scaling
down of guerrilla goals. Various units
will have difficulty carrying out their incur-
sions because of ammunition and manpower shortages.
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
Comment: Recent government offensives have disrupted
guerrilla staging areas and supply lines, and many of the
scheduled insurgent attacks may be delayed or poorly co-
ordinated and executed. The best chances for insurgent
success are in the east, where government forces are
weakest, but even there guerrilla victories are likely
to be temporary.
Death of Dutch Journalists
indicates that the four Dutch
journalists killed last Wednesday died when the guerrilla
band they were accompanying carelessly wandered into an
1
--contj.nued
TCS 2767/82
22 March 1982
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
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Army ambush. The investigation of the
incident concludes that the journalists were victims of
a military clash and not murdered by the armed forces.
Nicaragua Threatens Expanded Conflict
The Sandinistas are developing contingency plans to
accelerate a wider conflict in Central America should a
US or OAS peacekeeping force be sent to El Salvador.
They reason that such an action would indicate a US in-
tention to eventually strike at Nicaragua itsclf
Comment: Cuba and Nicaragua have been making a
coordinated effort to assist the Salvadoran insurgent
offensive to disrupt the elections next Sunday. Never-
theless, the Sandinistas believe that if the guerrillas
are successful, the US might intervene directly in El
Salvador or strike at Nicaragua itself. This view led
to the recent declaration of a state of emergency, and
Nicaragua probably will focus on the alleged US threat
in its presentation to the UN Security Council this week.
2
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TCS 2767
22 March 1982
Approved for Release: 2019/03/26 C06726995