SOUTH KOREA: KIMS STILL JOUST AS ELECTION NEARS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06799606
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: June 18, 2019
• Case Number: F-2019-00238
• Publication Date: October 10, 1987

Approved for Release: 2019/06/03 C06799606
Director of
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National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
10 October 1987
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10 October 1987
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Contents
Special Analyses
South Korea: Kims Still Joust as Election Nears
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10 October 1987
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Special Analysis
SOUTH KOREA: Kims Still Joust as Election Nears
With the presidential election only two-and-a-half months away,
Kim Dee Jung and Kim Young Sam still have not settled on which
of them will be the opposition party's ca7didate. The rulina
party's candidate may be the benefkiary
Kim Young Sam formally announced his candidacy for president
today, and Kim Dae Jung is expected to do so next week. The failure
of the two Kims to agree on which one of them will run for president
has rankled others in their Reunification Democratic Party, the main
opposition party in Korea, and may cost it public support. Their
struggle for power has turned bitter, with both men trading personal
attacks in an all-out effort to win the nomination, leading ob
conclude that a settlement is now permanently out of reachffers-1(11
The inability of the Kims to agree risks a messy floor fight at the RDP
convention this month. The pressure for the party to agree on one
opposition candidate is building open
competition betwe
to the ruling party.
Roh's Fortunes
Roh Tae Woo, nominee of the ruling Democratic Justice Party has
already �Rifled from the onnosition's disarray
Roh still faces several hurdles. His chances could be undermined by
former Prime Minister Kim Jong Pil, who has formed a party and
thrown his hat in the ring. Although generally regarded as a long shot,
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the latter could draw enough conservative votes from Roh to give
victory to the opposition
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Campuses Relatively Quiet
The lack of turmoil on college campuses this fall has helped Roh and
hurt the opposition. Student activity is now generally in the hands of
moderates, who do not plan to return to street protests
Student Interest in the presidential race remains
high, however, suggesting that they and the broader public continue
to expect a fair election.
Outlook
The National Assembly's passage of the constitutional reform bill
on Monday is virtually assured, and the next step�a national
referendum on the new charter�should occur by the end of
this month. The political parties are eager to clear the way for
campaigning and are making good progress in resolving even the
contentious issues involved in altering the election law, such as
demands for a lower voting age.
The outcome of the struggle between the two Kims will have a major
effect on the election and on military behavior.
It Kim Dae Jung gains the
opposition party's nomination, concern about the Army's intervention
In the process and worries about his personal safety will rise sharply.
Concern that the Army might intervene was greatest when labor
unrest peaked in August.
without a credible justification, like
widespread unrest endangering the Olympic Games next summer or a
direct threat from North Korea, their involvement might provoke
massive antigovernment demonstrations, strain relations with the US,
and discredit the military altogether.
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