SOUTH AFRICA: NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY TALKS STALL

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06813262
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2020
• Case Number: F-2018-00226
• Publication Date: August 20, 1988

Approved for Release: 2020/03/16 C06813262
(b)(3)
Director of
Central
Intelligence
ebti
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
20 August 1988
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Contents
South Africa: Non-Proliferation Treaty Talks Stall 4
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Approved for Release: 2020/03/16 C06813262
SOUTH AFRICA: Non-Proliferation Treaty Talks Stall
South Africa's tough terms for acceding to the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty and admission that it can produce
� nuclear weapons will hurt its chances for staying in the
� International Atomic Energy Aaencv but strengthen the
government domestically.
In Vienna last week South Africa made no commitment to accede
to theiNPT:in talks with the US, the USSR, and the UK.
Foreign Minister
Pik Botha was particularly incensed, according to press reports, over
passage by the US House of Representatives last week of a more
restrictive sanctions bill. While in Vienna, he chose to confirm South
Africa's nuclear weapons capability in a press interview.
Comment: Significant obstacles to South Africa's accession to the
NPT remain, and prospects for Pretoria's ouster from the IAEA at
next month's general conference have increased. An eleventh-hour
statement on the NPT prevented South Africa's suspension last
year and led to last week's talks. Pretoria seems willing to risk its
membership and probably would withdraw from the Aaencv if it
were faced with an imminent suspension vote
South Africa is probably concerned that accession to the NPT at
this time would create a damaging political backlash just before
nationwide municipal elections on 26 October. The conservative
opposition favors keeping the nuclear weapons option and has
already criticized the President for jeopardizing the program by
considering the Treaty
The remarks Botha made to the press about Pretoria's weapons
capability are consistent with the Intelligence Community's belief and
constitute the most categorical official statement to date. Botha's
timing may have less to do with the NPT talks than with regional
developments in southern Africa. Pretoria may wish to temper
concessions on Angola and Namibia with a reminder of its nuclear
potential
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