IRAQ: OPPOSITION BECOMING BOLDER

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06849476
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2020
• Case Number: F-2017-02412
• Publication Date: September 18, 1992

Approved for Release: 2020/06/23 C06849476
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Contents
Iraq: Opposition Becoming Bolder
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18 September September 1992
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IRAQ: Opposition Becoming Bolder
Iraqi opposition groups, emboldened by growing Western support, are
trying to hold a meeting in northern Iraa this wovkamid to promote unity
and increase pressure on Saddam
The Iraqi National Congress, which was formed last June and
comprises the major Iraqi Kurdish and London-based opposition
groups, is sponsoring the meeting in the hope of persuading groups
based in Tehran Riyadh, and Damascus to join them
The INC will also lobby for a "temporary government" in the coalition-controlled security zone in northern
Iraq. Leaders of the group are especially eager to obtain the support
of Muhammad Baqr al-Hakim, leader of the largest Iraai Shia
opposition group
a reaction from Baghdad.
ne conterence has yet to draw
Comment: Congress leaders hope holding a well-run meeting inside
Iraq will build credibility among Iraqis. They probably believe
pledges of support from US and European officials this summer will
convince prospective attendees and their Middle Eastern sponsors
that they are the only umbrella group with enough Western backing to
offer any effective opposition to Saddam. Hakim's atter7lance would
go far to foster the appearance of unity.
Tehran's intentions are not clear. It probably fears it will lose
influence with the Iraqi opposition if it does not cultivate ties
to groups with US backing, and it may draw closer to the INC.
Nevertheless, it probably does not want to lend the group too much
credibility and may allow Hakim nnlv tn cgrirl rli.nyrt
Holding the conference on Iraqi soil risks retaliation by Saddam's
forces, which almost certainly are aware there will be a meeting
and may know its location. Nevertheless, Saddam almost certainly
regards the threat from popular rebel leaders in southern Iraq as more
dangerous than that from exiled o ositionist
a limited following incirle Iran
Igrowing popular support
tor former Gen. 'Ali Husayn al-Arbid, who is now a Shia rebel leader
in the southern marshes Videos,
cassettes, and posters promoting Arbid and attacking Saddam
have appeared throughout Baghdad. Saddam is exacting
reprisals against Arbid's family and supporters and haq
destroyed his village in southern Iraq
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4 18 September 1992
Approved for Release: 2020/06/23 C06849476