THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM (NIE 11-2-61)

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
06851104
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
76
Document Creation Date: 
March 9, 2023
Document Release Date: 
August 4, 2020
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
F-2020-00991
Publication Date: 
October 5, 1961
File: 
Body: 
Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 NIE 11-2-61 5 October 1961 TS 117700 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER fl-2--61 11-2-61 THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM LIMITED DISTRIBUTION Submitted by the DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and The Joint Staff. Concurred in by the UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD on 5 October 1961. Concurring were the Director of Intelli- gence and Research, Department of State; the Director, De- fense Intelligence Agency; the Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army; the Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelligence), Department of the Navy; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF; the Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff; the Atomic Energy Commission Representative to the USIB; and the Director of the National Security Agency. The Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, abstained, the subject being outside of his jurisdiction. CONTAINS DEFINED BY THE ATOMIC E Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Copy No. 180 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 TOP BECRET NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM NIE 11-2-61 5 October 1961 This estimate supersedes NIE 11-2-60, 21 June 1960 and Annex E to NIE 11-5-61, 25 April 1961. This estimate was prepared and agreed upon by the Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee, which is composed of representatives of the Departments of State, Army, Navy, Air Force, the Atomic Energy Commission, The Joint Staff, the National Security Agency, the Assist- ant to the Secretary of Defense, Special Operations, and the Central Intelligence Agency. See appropriate footnotes, however, for the dis- senting views of the Navy and Air Force. The FBI abstained, the subject being outside of its jurisdiction. TOP SE TED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 pprovie'Ctar'141eaSe: 2020/07/29 C06851104 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Pan THE PROBLEM 1. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1 DISCUSSION 5 I. ORGANIZATION OF THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PRO- GRAM 5 II. THE SOVIET NUCLEAR REACTOR PROGRAM Research Reactors 7 Power Reactors 7 Marine Nuclear Propulsion Systems 7 Nuclear Propulsion Systems for Aircraft, Missiles, and Space Vehicles 13 Nuclear Electrical Propulsion Systems for Space Applications. 14 Nuclear Auxiliary (Non-Propulsion) Power Supplies . . . � 14 III. THE SOVIET NUCLEAR MATERIALS PRODUCTION PRO- GRAM 14 Soviet Uranium Ore Procurement 14 Uranium Metal 15 U-235 Production 16 Plutonium-Equivalent Production 18 Other Nuclear Materials 22 IV. THE SOVIET NUCLEAR WEAPON PROGRAM. . . . 22 Nuclear Weapon Research and Development Installations. 22 Weapon Development Program 24 Fabrication and Stockpiling 36 Control of Nuclear Weapons 38 TED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Tnp SECRET TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page V. POSSIBLE SOVIET ALLOCATIONS OF FISSIONABLE MA- TERIALS TO WEAPON STOCKPILES 39 The Soviet Test Program 39/ Availability of Fissionable Materials 40 Soviet Military Doctrine and Policy 40 - Long Range Striking Forces 40 Air Defense 42 Support of Ground Operations 42 Naval Operations 43 Summary 43 ANNEX A RESEARCH LABORATORIES SUPPORTING THE SO- WET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM 45 TOP SE TED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 vii LIST OF TABLES Page/ Table 1 USSR Research Reactors and Reactor Experiments 8 Table 2 Soviet Nuclear Power Stations and Expertmental Centers 11 Table 3 Estimated Soviet Bloc Recoverable Equivalent Ura- nium Metal Production Through 1966 16 Table 4 Estimated Soviet Fissionable Materials Production 21 Table 5 Evaluation of Soviet Nuclear Tests (1949-1958) . 25 Table 5A Preliminary Evaluation of Soviet Nuclear Tests in 1961 31 Table 6 Soviet Thermonuclear Weapons 32 Table 7 Soviet Fission Weapons 33 TOP SE ICTED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Figure 1 Figure 2 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 LIST OF FIGURES Follows page "H" Class Submarine 6 Map�Nuclear-Electric Power Sites 6 ix (b)(1) Figure 4 Map�Nuclear Materials Production Sites . 16 Figure 5 Verkh-Neyvinsk Gaseous Diffusion Plant . 18 Figure 6 Tomsk Gaseous Diffusion Plant 18 Figure 7 Tomsk Reactor Area 18 Figure 8 Map�Nuclear Weapon Research and Test Areas 24 Figure 8A Map�Nuclear Weapon Storage Sites 24 Figure 9 Sarova Nuclear Research and Development In- stallation 24 Figure 10 Probable Test Area at Kasli 24 Figure 11 Semipalatinsk Nuclear Weapon Proving Ground (Photograph) 24 Figure 11A Semipalatinsk Nuclear Weapon Proving Ground (Line Drawing) 24 Figure 12 New Research Facility at Semipalatinsk (Photo- graph) 24 Figure 13 New Research Facility at Semipalatinsk (Line Drawing) 24 Figure 14 Grid Sites at Semipalatinsk 24 Figure 15 Apparent Ground Zero at Semipalatinsk (Photo- graph) 24 Figure 16 Apparent Ground Zero at Semipalatinsk (Line Drawing) 24 Figure 17 Nizhnyaya Tura Nuclear Energy Complex. 36 Figure 18 Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Site at Nizhnyaya Tura 36 (b)(1) Annex A Figure 1 Kharkov Linear Accelerator � 46 Annex A Figure 2 Map�Major Nuclear Research Centers 46 CTED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 � .1111IMmi (b)(1) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 SECRET 1 THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM THE PROBLEM To estimate the current status and probable future course of the Soviet atomic energy program to mid-1966. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS NUCLEAR WEAPON CAPABILITY 1. Weapon Capability. We believe that nuclear weapons are available for delivery systems which we know to be in the So- viet arsenal or which we estimate to be under development. However, many of these weapons probably are not of opti- mum design, and serious gaps in the So- viet knowledge of weapons effects for cer- tain military applications may exist. Based on an analysis of available data from tests conducted prior to 1 September 1961, we estimate that these weapons ranwe frnm ffssinn warhead deviepq yield- ing to thermonuclear warheads yield- ing We have reliable reports of short range army support weapons of low yield, some of which may well have been tested. We must consider also the Possibility that there are larger yield bombs in stockpile although such devices have not been tested, and ttherefore, the Soviets would have reduced confidence in the yield. It is estimated that by a series of tests and weapons develop- ment efforts probably requiring one year or more, the Soviets could complete the design and be prepared to fabricate a es � an an. -arcis. FISSIONABLE MATERIALS PRODUCTION 2. Uranium Ore. Available evidence con- tinues to indicate that the Soviets are TOP SE TED DATA Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 TS 117700 (b)(1) (b)(1) (b)(1) (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 .1.01" SECtt expanding both their domestic and satel- lite procurement of uranium ore. We estimate that by the end of 1960 the So- viet Union had procured a cumulative total of about 130,000 metric tons of re- coverable uranium. As in previous years these amounts are considerably in excess of the recoverable equivalent uranium metal required to support our current estimate of fissionable materials produc- tion. (Table 3, and Paras. 50 to 55) 3. Uranium-235. Two gaseous diffusion uranium isotope separation plants have been identified in the USSR, one at Verkh- Neyvinsk and the other at Tomsk. A probable third plant is located near Angarsk in the Lake Baykal region. However, we have been unable to confirm U-235 production in this area. We be- lieve that no other large gaseous diffu- sion uranium-235 plant is currently in op- eration� in the Soviet Union. (Para. 57) 4. We estimate that the Soviets produced the equivalent of 76,000 kg of weapon- grade U-235 by mid-1961 and that the cumulative total will have increased to about 285,000 kg by mid-1966.2 (Table 4, page 21.) A fairly good confi- dence level can be assigned to 50% er- ror range- for the estimated mid-1963 value. (Para. 58-63) (b)(1) 'See page 18 for the view of the Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelligence) , Department of the Navy. TS 117700 (b)(1) 5. Plutonium Equivalent.' Two major plutonium-equivalent production sites have been identified in the USSR. The earliest 4.nd largest is located near Kyshtyrn in the Urals and the second is � north of Tomsk in Central Siberia. The 1 atomic energy site near Krasnoyarsk, and possibly the site at Angarsk, could also include some plutonium-equivalent pro- duction facilities, but available evidence does not confirm the existence of such facilities at these sites. (Paras. 64-67) 6. The available evidence leads to differ- ent values of Soviet plutonium-equivalent production. (b)(1) the total re- actor-products production is expressed in terms of equivalent amounts of plutonium and is termed plutonium equivalent. For planning purposes 10 grams of tritium is considered equal tO one kilogram of plutonium. TO ET RESTRICTEDTh pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Ljpr ttes rhe � ear I. is ,nd ,lso TO- ice Leh r- Dr n, e- of 10 approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 See page 21 for the view of the AssiStant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelligence), Department of the Navy. (b)(1) 3 POSSIBLE ALLOCATIONS OF FISSION- ABLE MATERIALS TO WEAPON STOCK- PILES 10. We believe that the long-range strik- ing forces have been given the largest allocation of fissionable mat�rials, and that at present the Soviet weapons stock- pile can support massive nuclear attacks against targets in Eurasia and North America. In view of the large allocation estimated for the long range attack forces, and the size and nature of the overall materials stockpile, limitations are imposed on thefl numbers of weap- ons available for other air, ground, and naval operations. These limitations necessarily affect military planning. However, we consider it unlikely that the availability of fissionable materials for nuclear weapons is a factor which in it- self significantly limits Soviet policy. We have estimated a considerable growth in the Soviet fissionable materials stock- pile which should keep pace with the esti- mated growth in Soviet missile capabili- ties for long-range attack, and also ease the limitations noted above. (Paras. 138-161) NUCLEAR WEAPON RESEARCH, DEVEL- OPMENT, FABRICATION AND STOCK- PILING 11. Research and Development. The So- viet nuclear weapon research and devel- opment effort has remained active since 1958, as evidenced by 1960 photography of the weapon research complex at Sarova and the Semipalatinsk proving grounds, and. the resumption of an ex- tensive test program in September 1961. Recent analysis of 1959 photography in- dicates that Kasli is another important ICTED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 4 TOP OECRET and active Soviet nuclear weapon re- search and development site. Other sites at which some research and develop- ment is being conducted include Nizh- naya Tura and probably Krasnoyarsk.' (Paras. 88-98) 12. Fabrication and Stockpiling. We have identified nuclear weapon fabrica- tion and national stockpile sites in the Urals at Nizhnaya Tura and Yuryuzan. Krasnoyarsk in central Siberia is prob- ably engaged in fabrication operations and may also be a stockpile site. At least three, and probably five, national as- sembly and stockpile sites,F7storage sites for the Long Range Aviation (LRA) at arctic staging bases, and more than a dozen airfield storage sites have been identified. While we have no firm evi- dence of operational nuclear weapon storage facilities except at LRA and a few naval airfields, we continue to estimate that such facilities are available to the Soviet tactical and naval aviation, to the naval surface forces, and to the ground forces. (Paras. 119-135) NUCLEAR REACTOR PROGRAM 13. Power Reactors. The Soviets have fallen far short of their nuclear power ob- jectives announced in 1956 and included in the Sixth Five-Year Plan. Soviet offi- cials have stated that they have reduced the nuclear power program since their reactors were not competitive with con- ventional power sources. We estimate that he Soviets will have about 1000 megawatts of nuclear generating capac- 5For the likelihood that the Soviets have con- ducted tests during the moratorium period, see SNIE 11-9-61. -1-grellia:Q1 TS 117700 ity installed by mid-1966. (Paras. 32 and 33) 14. Marinp Nuclear Propulsion Systems. Soviet redctor technology indicates that late 1957 was the earliest date that a nu- clear propulsion reactor for a submarine could have been available for installation. Pressurized-water reactors are probably being installed in all nuclear submarines currently under construction and we be- lieve that the Soviets will continue to use this type of system for the next five years. (Paras. 34-36) 15. We believe that the first Soviet nu- clear'submarine was completed at the Severodvinsk shipyard in mid-1958 and probably went into service with the Northern Fleet in 1959. The Kom- somol'sk shipyard in the Far East is esti- mated to have completed its first nuclear submarine in 1960. (Paras. 37-39) 16. Recent information on the new class of Northern Fleet submarines (H-class) indicates that some form of unconven- tional propulsion, probably nuclear, is employed. The size and operating characteristics of these submarines seem to be more� limited than those of US nu- clear submarines. (Para. 37) 17. Based on all available evidence, it is estimated that the Soviets had seven H- class submarines, probably nuclear pow- ered, in service in the Northern Fleet as of mid-July 1961, and that a few addi- tional such submarines may be under- going trials and training. Current nu- clear submarine production is estimated to be at a rate of about six submarines per year. (Para. 39) 18. Reactor Systems for Aircraft. If the Soviet aircraft nuclear propulsion (ANP) TOP STRICTED DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 . 32 3ms. that flu- rifle tbly ines be- use ars. n11- the tnd the an, tl- ar ass 3s) is ng !in pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 rer19-5-E-C-11-E-11 5 program was initiated in 1956, was sup- ported continuously at a high level, and progressed with no major setbacks, the Soviets could produce an aircraft nuclear power plant as early as 1963-1964. Such a program might permit a first militarily useful nuclear powered aircraft to be- come available in 1966. However, the lack of evidence of the program, the de- creasing frequency of Soviet statements on progress, and the apparent general level of their reactor technology indicate that the effort may have encountered serious obstacles. Therefore, we believe it unlikely that the Soviets will obtain a militarily useful nuclear powered aircraft during the period of this estimate. How- ever, at any time during the period of this estimate the Soviets, for propaganda purposes, might fly an aircraft obtaining part of its thrust from nuclear heat. (Paras. 40-42) 19. Reactor Systems for Rockets and Ramjets. We estimate that the Soviet Union is working to develop a nuclear rocket engine and will have the capability to conduct a nuclear rocket static test firing by 1965. To date there is no spe- cific evidence to indicate that tile Soviets have a nuclear ramjet under development, and we estimate that it is unlikely that the Soviets will be able to flight-test a nuclear ramjet engine before 1966. (Paras. 43-44) 20. Nuclear Electrical Propulsion Sys- tems for Space Applications. The major Soviet effort in this field appears to be directed toward an ion propulsion system. We estimate that the Soviets could flight test a prototype system operating at a power of about 75 kilowatts possibly 17 1964, if no major difficulties are en- countered in developing the nuclear power source for the engine. (Paras. 45-48) DISCUSSION I. ORGANIZATION OF THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM 21. The Soviet atomic energy program is di- rected primarily by two organizations. The Ministry of Medium Machine Building (MSM) , headed by E. P. Sla,vskiy, is re- sponsible for most of the atomic energy pro- gram in the USSR, including exploration and exploitation of ore, production of fissionable material, and, with the Ministry of Defense, development and stockpiling of nuclear weap- ons. The State Committee of the USSR Council of Ministers for the Utilization of Atomic Energy (ATOMKO1VIITET) is re- sponsible for the application of non-military uses of atomic energy within the USSR as well as the cooperation of the USSR with countries other than European satellites in these mat- ters. The Academy of Sciences, USSR, (AN) , is apparently used to advise and conduct sup- porting research for both the Ministry and the State Committee. Some of the institutes playing a more prominent role in the Soviet nuclear research effort are described in Annex A. 22. Identification of the organizational rela- tionships affecting the research, uranium mining, feed materials production, and fis- sionable materials production aspects of the Soviet atomic energy program has been based on relatively firm evidence. New informa- tion has improved our understanding of the organizational relationships affecting the nu- TRICTED DATA Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 6 clear weapon design, development, testing, and storage aspects of the program. 23. The nuclear weapon proving ground at Semipalatinsk and installations supporting the test area on Novaya Zemlya are probably under the operational control of the military. Test activity itself is probably a joint effort by both the military and the scientific labora- tories involved, with the Ministry of Medium Machine Building exercising technical di- rection. 24. We believe that the Ministry of Medium Machine Building is responsible for the opera- tion of national assembly and stockpile sites and that the weapons immediately required to implement military missions are controlled by the Ministry of Defense, probably by a special- ized central element of that Ministry. (See Paras. 136 and 137) 25. A reorganization within the area of "peaceful uses" of atomic energy occurred in the Soviet Union on 18 May 1960, when the former Chief Directorate for the Utilization of Atomic Energy (GLAVATOM) attached to the Council of Ministers was reorganized and ele- vated to the ministerial level as the State Committee for the USSR Council of Ministers for the Utilization of Atomic Energy (NromKomrrET) with V. S. Yem.el'yanov as its chairman. This State Committee has probably acquired more authority and a higher priority in carrying out its "peaceful uses" efforts. According to one source, the new organization has planned a considerable increase in the use of nuclear and thermo- nuclear energy and is expected to expand the whole field of nuclear research and tech- nology. This increased emphasis on the practical application of nuclear technology by the atomic energy State Committee parallels the effort by the newly-organized State Committee of the USSR Council of Min- isters for the Coordination of Scientific Re- search, headed by Konstantin Rudnev, which was establi4hed to introduce the newest scientific arid technical discoveries into the economy: To date, we have seen no evidence that Rudnev's State Committee is connected with the Soviet atomic energy program. 26. Since July 1960, cooperation among the European satellites in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy has been the responsi- bility of a Standing Committee for the Peace- ful Uses of Atehnic Energy created by the Council for Mulual Economic Aid (CEMA). The long range plan of the CEMA atomic energy committee will divide the various tasks among the member nations and will result hi a single integrated Satellite atomic energy program. This type of inter-country collabo- ration will probably delay, if not prevent, the development of an independent nuclear capability by any of the participating coun- tries. II. THE SOVIET NUCLEAR REACTOR PROGRAM Introduction 27. The USSR has continued to conduct a diversified and comprehensive reactor pro- gram, but the nuclear power program was further reduced during the past year. The USSR has done excellent work in the impor- tant fields of heat transfer, the superheating of steam directly in reactors, and the develop- ment of fast reactors. 28. The present Soviet reactor capacity is de- voted almost exclusively to plutonium pro- duction. There is reason to believe that So- viet production reactor technology has been conventional and has shown no outstanding advances. Both graphite-moderated and heavy-water moderated types are in use. In addition, at least two dual-purpoSe reactors, apparently optimized for plutonium produc- tion are in operation at Tomsk. 29. While the Soviets are constructing some large-scale power reactors of different types, they have indicated that they are not com- mitted to a specific power reactor type but in- stead are exploring the advantages of various types in prototype reactors and reactor ex- periments in an effort to obtain competitive nuclear power. 30. In the USSR, the greatest advances in power reactor technology appear to have been made in pressurized-water systems. All large power reactors which the Soviets plan to build TS 117700 1.r4,15LT,0117.....) ICTED DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 E.I_) the bp eful nsi- ace- the IA). mic lsks tin 3rgy abo- the lear t a pro- was The por- ting lop- de- pro- So- )een ling and In Ors, Ille- nue pes, DM- in- -OW eX- tive ; in een rge Ind "H" CLASS SUBMARINE (COMPOSITE PHOTOGRAPH) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 I) � a it 4 � 3 L_ Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 1-1 v-4 CO (b)(3) V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of Figure 2 40 44, 60 In Operation (date of full power) Under Construction (expected date of full power) Indefinitely Postponed 4 80 120 160 180 Ulan-Ude 8 ULAN 13P:1�1' Boundaries are not necessarily those recognized by the U.S. Government 100 USSR NUCLEAR- ELECTRIC POWER REACTOR SITES 0 250 500 1000 1500 2000 Statute Miles 0 250 500 1000 1500 2000 Kilometers '"aberovs 120 - Railroad (selected) (f) 60 40 35330 8-61 SECRET- pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 SELOP in the USSR in the near future employ normal water as the coolant in either the pressure- vessel or pressure-tube configuration. The Soviets are definitely interested in the bulk type boiling-water reactor, but they appear to be awaiting further development of the technology of the pressurized-water reactor (PWR)6 and the pressure-tube boiling water reactor with nuclear superheat before extend- ing the development of a bulk boiling-water reactor. Soviet work on organic moderation has been limited to the operation of critical assemblies. The Soviets have done little work on liquid-metal fueled reactors. Their re- quirements for reactor safety have not been stringent by Western standards; however, there is evidence of growing Soviet concern with reactor safety and control. Research Reactors 31. There are presently at least 15 research reactors available to the USSR. (Table 1.) This number and variety of reactors give the Soviets an excellent capability to study and develop materials for more advanced reactors. A particularly important new reactor is the impulse fast reactor, IBR (also called the "merry-go-round" reactor) which began to operate late in 1960 at the Joint Institute of Nuclear Research in Dubna. A neutron spectrometer with a flight path of 1 kilometer to be used with this reactor is now under con- struction and should be completed in 1962. This research facility will permit the Soviets to advance 'their understanding of neutron physics over wide energy spectrum and could be valuable in the study of some effects of nuclear weapons on various components and systems. Power Reactors 32. The USSR has fallen far short of the nu- clear power objectives announced in 1956 and included in the Sixth Five-Year Plan. This Plan called for the installation of 2000-2500 electrical megawatts (MWe) of nuclear gen- erating capacity by the end of 1960. The pro- 'Pressure vessel type reactor with non-boiling water as a coolant. 7 gram has continued to slip since 1958, and Soviet officials have stated that they have reduced the nuclear power_ program for eco- nomic reasons since their nuclear reactors are not yet competitive with conventional power sources. 33. Two large reactor stations are being con- structed: a pressurized-water reactor (210 MWe) at Novo-Voronezh, and a pressure-tube, graphite-moderated reactor with nuclear superheat at Beloyarsk (100 MWe). Both are expected to be completed in 1962. The experimental boiling-water, and possibly the fast reactors at Ul'yanovsk might add another 100 electrical megawatts. We estimate, therefore, that including the dual-purpose re- actors at Tomsk, the USSR will have about 1000 megawatts of nuclear generating capac- ity installed by mid-1966. (See Table 2 and Figure 2) Marine Nuclear Propulsion Systems 34. The nuclear powered icebreaker, LENIN, completed its first operational season in the Northern Sea Route in the fall of 1960. Her propulsion system has since had a major overhaul and numerous reports indicate that problems were encountered with leakage of water from the primary loop and with shield- ing. The Soviets may be encountering many of these problems in their nuclear submarine propulsion system. 35. Soviet reactor technology indicates that late 1957 was the earliest date that a nuclear propulsion reactor for a SUbnlarrp havP been available for installation. 36. Soviet preference for PWR's in marine propulsion systems can be inferred from their use on the LENIN and from statements by Soviet atomic energy and shipbuilding authorities. Pressurized-water reactors are probably being installed in all nuclear sub- marines currently under construction and we believe that the Soviets will continue to use this type of system for the next five years. ICTED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1 ) Table 1 USSR RESEARCH REACTORS AND REACTOR EXPERIMENTS Operating Research Reactors Max. Thermal Power Neutron Flux Reactor Thermal (neutrons/ Date Designation Location (KW) cm/sec) Fuel Moderator Coolant Critical Heavy Remarks 1. TR (rebuilt) Moscow, Inst. of 2,500 2.5 x 101$ 270 kg of en- Heavy June 1957 Originally a 500 kw prototype Theoretical & riched U Water Water for Soviet heavy-water pro- Experimental 4.5 tons duction reactors. Critical Physics in Apr. 1949. Rebuilt ver- sion has 9 vertical and 52 horizontal experimental channels. 2. RPT (rebuilt) Moscow, Inst. of 20,000 1.8 x 1014 6.1 kg of 90% Graphite Water 1957 Original version at full power C/1 AE enriched U and in Dec. 1952. Five inpile Water loops, 3 water-cooled, 1 gas-cooled, 1 liquid-metal cooled. 4 vertical channels. 0 Reconstruction accom- plished during normal shut- downs. Now 11 inpile loops, 15 vertical channels. 3. VVR-2 (re- Moscow, Inst. of 3,000 4 x 10" 45 kg of 10% en- Water Water 1955 Original version critical in built) AE riched U 1952. Tank-type reactor de- signed for testing of shield- ing materials and configura- tion. Now has 5 horizontal channels with choppers, 3 vertical channels, and a "neutron multiplier" (spent fuel elements in a tank adjacent to reactor). 4. VVR�S Moscow, Moscow 2,000 2.5 x 101$ 60 kg of 10% en- Water Water 1955 Tank-type; 10 vertical chan- State Univ. riched U nels, 9 horizontal channels. Supplied to Rumania, Hun- gary, Czechoslovakia, E. Germany, Poland and Egypt. w 5. VVR�S Tashkent, Inst. of 2,000 2.5 x 101$ 60 kg of 10% en- Water Nuclear Physics riched U Water Late 1959 Tank-type; 10 vertical chan- nels, 9 horizontal channels. tzi Table 1 (Continued) oo V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of Table 1 (Continued) Reactor Designation 6. IRT 7. IRT 8. VVR�M 9. VVR�M 10. Intermediate Flux Trap 11. IBR (Merry- go-round 12. Isotope Re- actor (IR) Location Moscow, Inst. of AE Tbilisi Power Thermal (KW) 2,000 Max. Thermal Neutron Flux (neutrons/ cm2/sec) 3.2 x 1013 Fuel Date Moderator Coolant Critical 40 kg of 10% en- Water riched U 2,000 3.2 x 1015 40 kg of 10% en- Water riched U Leningrad Physical- 10,000 1 x 10" Technical Insti- tute Kiev Physical 10,000 1 x 1014 Technical Insti- tute Maldek, Ulya- novsk, Oblast Dubna Joint Inst. of Nuclear Re- search Unknown � possibly Kyshtym 20 kg of 20% en- Water riched U � 20 kg of 20% en- Water riched U 50,000 2.2 x 1015 11.7 kg of 90% Water enriched U 1 Ave. 10" during Graphite impreg- Graphite 100,000 burst nated with Max. UO2 50,000 3-4.5 x 10" 3 tons of 2% en- Graphite riched U metal Remarks Water Nov. 1957 Swimming-pool type for use in universities and institutes. An additional reactor at Riga will probably become critical in late 1961. A 1000-Kw version, IRT-1000, will be built at Minsk (probably critical in 1961), Tomsk and Sverdlovsk. Water Nov. 1959 Swimming-pool type for use in universities and institutes. An additional reactor at Riga will probably become critical in late 1961. A 1000-Kw version, IRT-1000, will be built at Minsk (probably critical in 1961), Tomsk and Sverdlovsk. Water Dec. 1959 Beryllium reflected, used for isotope production, prod. of trans-U elements also neu- tron diffraction studies, probably in connection with solid-state work in Lenin- grad. Water Feb. 1960 Beryllium reflected, used for isotope production, prod. of trans-U elements also neu- tron diffraction studies, probably in connection with solid-state work in Lenin- grad. Water Probably Be or Be0 reflected, central 1960 water cavity where max. thermal neutron flux is ob- � tained. None Summer To be used with a 1 km time- 1960 of-flight neutron spectrom- eter in 1962. Water 1952 Experimental facility for pro- duction of isotopes. Table 1 (Continued) 1-3 0 1. Fursov Pile Reactor Designation Max. Thermal Power Neutron Flux Thermal (neutrons/ Location (KW) cm2/sec) 5,000 10" (fast) 50 kg Pu Oxide 13. BR-5 Fast Obninsk Reactor 14. VVR-Ts 1. Beryllium Physical Re- actor (BFR) 2. BR-4 Fast Re- actor. 2. BR-1 Fast Re- actor 3. BR-2 Fast Re- actor 4. BR-3 Com- bined Fast Thermal Re- actor 5. UF'6 Gas-Fueled Moscow Inst. of AE Reactor Fuel Unknown 10,000 1 x 1014 Obninsk 0.05 Obninsk Low Moscow, Inst. of 10 AE (Max.) Obninsk 0.05 Date Moderator Coolant Critical None 25 kg of 20% en- Water riched U Low Power Reactor Experiments Now in Operation U3 08 with 20% Beryllium Obninsk 100 1044 (fast) Obninsk 0.05 1.5 2.7 x 1010 enriched U met- metal al Pu None Remarks Sodium June 1958 Uranium and nickel reflector. (Full power� July 1959) Water Unknown Specialized radio-chemical re- search reactor. None August Zero-power critical assembly, 1954 bare and reflected. None No Longer in Operation 45 tons of Nat- Graphite Air ural U Pu Pu-U Pu None None None Fall BR-3 with modified reflector 1959 of UO2. 1947 Possibly now dismantled. Sim- ilar to US CP-1, served as prototype for 1st Soviet pro- duction reactor. None Early Uranium and copper reflectors. 1955 Used to make BR-3. Mercury Early Uranium reflector. (Disman- 1956 tied to make BR-5). None Mid- Uranium and water reflector. 1957 (BR-1 w/modif. refl.). Used to make BR-4: - T.7F6 with 90% Beryllium None August Probably dismantled. enriched U metal 1957 P V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of Table 2 SOVIET NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS AND EXPERIMENTAL CENTERS Station No. of Reactors and Location Type Tomsk ''' 6 Dual-purpose (planned). Beloyarsk Novo- Voronezh 1 Gyaphite-Moder- died, Water-cool/ed, Pressure Tube Con- figuration. 1 Water-Moderated, Water-Cooled Pres- sure Vessel Configu- ration Elec. Thermal Power Power Per Per Fuel Loading Reactor Reactor Per (MW) (MW) Reactor 100 500 200 metric (claimed) tons of 1200 Natural (esti- U metal. mated) (peak power) 100 286 90 metric tons of 1.3% U metal 210 760 23 metric tons of 1.5% UO2 and 17 metric tons of natural UO2 (820 kg U-235 metal equiva- lent) 0.65 at be- 74 66 2 yrs. ginning of cycle, 0.55 at end. 108 117 1.5 yrs. Conversion Ratio Annual Con- sump- tion Annual ETP Produc- U-235 tion Pu Estimated Per Per date of Reactor Reactor Fuel Full Power (KG) (KG) Lifetime Operation Remarks 0.7 . 300 Sept 1958 Plant factor of 0.75. 1st Re- The second reactor actor believed to be opera- tional in 1960. Spe- cific dates for the re- maining reactors are unknown; estimate all in by end of 1966. 1962 Employs nuclear super- heat. Est. schedule: 1st reactor, 1962. 4 originally planned. 1962 Zr-Nb alloy clad fuel elements. 2 origi- nally planned. Station Location No. of Reactors and Type Elec. Power Per Reactor (MW) Thermal Power Per Reactor (MW) Leningrad Same as Novo-Voronezh Obninsk 1 Graphite-Moderated, Water-Cooled, Pres- sure Tube Configu- ration 5 30 1-3 Obninsk 1 Package Power 2 10 Water-Moderated, Water-Cooled, Pres- sure Vessel. Lxi Uryanovsk 1 Boiling Water Re- actor. 50 240 Ur yanovsk 1 Fast Plutonium 50 200 Lxi Breeder (BN-50) Uryanovsk 1 Fast Plutonium 250 1,000 Breeder (BN-50) Uryanovsk 1 Graphite-Moder- ated, Sodium Cooled 50 180 Ul'yanovsk Homogeneous Tho- rium Breeder 35 Probably 1 Graphite-Moder- Uryanovsk ated, CO2-cooled Table 2 (Continued) Fuel Loading Per Reactor Conversion Ratio Indefinitely Postponed 550 kg of 0.3 5%U metal .... Pu02 or Pu-U-Mo alloy . . 35-50 170 .... (as- (assumed) sumed) 1.6-1.8 breeding ratio claimed 1.8-2.0 breeding ratio claimed 0.8 � Annual Con- sump- tion Annual ETP Produc- U-235 tion Pu Per Per Reactor Reactor Fuel (KG) (KG) Lifetime 3 100 days 36 .. 720- 800 50 � .. r m (11 Estimated date of Full Power Operation Remarks 1954 First Soviet nuclear power station. Pro- totype of Beloyarsk reactors. Used ex- tensively for experi- ment as well as power production. 1960 Assembled for testing at Obninsk and prob- ably moved to an- other location after testing. 1962 Same Type fuel element as large PWR's. 1965 Designation BN-50, (may have sodium-cooled with been post- intermediate NaK poned in- loop; may use neutral definitely) diluents, in fuel ele- ment. After 1965 Now in early planning stage. May never be built. Indefinitely Intermediate NaK postponed Loop. After 1966 Suspension or solution of U in heavy water, boiling. Believed to have been cancelled. Unknown Gas cooled. !�-t C, r 11) cn T4 r tn cn cn V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of 0 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 i.ur JUt,ET 37. We believe that the first Soviet nuclear submarine was completed at the Severodvinsk shipyard in mid-1958 and probably went into service with the Northern Fleet in 1959. Re- cent information on the new class of Northern Fleet submarines (H-class) indicates that some form of unconventional propulsion, prob- ably nuclear, is employed. The observed operating characteristics of these submarines seem to be more limited than those of US nuclear submarines. 38. In the Far East the Komsomorsk shipyard is estimated to have completed its first nuclear submarine in 1960. This submarine is prob- ably being outfitted and undergoing trials at Vladivostok. It is estimated that the Kom- somol'sk yard can produce 2-3 nuclear sub- marines per year. 39, Based on all available evidence, it is esti- mated that the Soviets had seven H-class submarines, probably nuclear powered, in service in the Northern Fleet as of mid-July 1961, and that a few additional such sub- marines may be undergoing trials and train- ing. Current nuclear Submarine production is estimated to be at a rate of about six sub- marines per year. Nuclear Propulsion Systems for Aircraft, Missiles, and Space Vehicles 40, Aircraft. It is estimated that a Soviet air- craft nuclear propulsion (ANP) effort may have begun as early as 1956 and that as of 1959 the Soviets were engaged in an effort to develop some. type of ANP system. However, no evidence has been received which permits determination of the exact type of system under development or the status of the effort. Furthermore, since January 1959, the Soviets have given no optimistic expressions concern- ing the progress of their program. 41. The Soviet scientific literature reflects an extensive, but basic, research effort to de- velop materials suitable for high temperature reactors, including fuels, cladding, and cool- ants. Other Soviet work applicable to ANP developments has been noted on a more limited scale in the fields of heat transfer, TS 117700 13 shielding, instrumentation, and reactor con- trol. The development of fissionable fuels suitable for use at high temperatures is ap- parently progressing at a faster rate than cladding and reactor structural materials. There is no specific evidence that Soviet efforts to produce high temperature n.clear mate- xials have progressed from the laboratory stage to the industrial capacity for produc- ing mill forms in quantities required for an ANP program. 42. If the Soviet ANP program was initiated in 1956, was supported continuously at a high level, and progressed with no major setbacks, the Soviets could produce an aircraft nuclear power plant as early as 1963-64. This might permit a first militarily useful nuclear powered aircraft to become available in 1966. However, the lack of evidence of the program, the decreasing frequency of Soviet statements on progress, and the apparent general level of their reactor technology, indicate that the effort may have encountered serious obstacles. Therefore, we believe, it unlikely that the So- viets will obtain a militarily useful nuclear powered aircraft during the period of this estimate. However, at any time during the period of this estimate the Soviets, for propa- ganda purposes, might fly an. aircraft obtain- ing part of its thrust from nuclear heat. 43. Ramjets. To date there is no specific evi- dence to indicate that the Soviets have a nu- clear ramjet missile under development. Analysis of the Soviet literature indicates an excellent conventional ramjet research pro- gram, but references to nuclear ramjets can be attributed to feasibility studies. Based on this lack of evidence, and the technical com- plexity of such a missile, we estimate that it is unlikely that the Soviets will be able to flight-test a nuclear ramjet engine before 1966. 44. Rockets. Based on Soviet statements and their published research in the field, we esti- mate that the Soviet Union is at this time working to develop a nuclear rocket engine. Their research in high-temperature refractory compounds, high-pressure containment yes- TOPS RIOTED DATA Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 14 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 sels for reactor cores and their success in de- veloping a uranium-graphite fuel element for the "merry-go-round" pulsed reactor add to their development capability in this field. In view of the above, and of the availability of unclassified Western technical information, we believe that the USSR will have the capa- bility to conduct a nuclear rocket static test firing by 1965. Nuclear Electrical Propulsion Systems for Space Applications 45. Electric propulsion using nuclear energy sources offers the possibility for producing a low-thrust, high specific impulse system suit- able for outer space and inter-orbital applica- tions; such systems would be useless for take- off. 46. Although the Soviets have shown interest in all forms of electric propulsion,7 their ma- jor effort appears to be directed toward an ion propulsion system. Soviet fast reactor scientists at Obninsk were conducting cesium- ion thrust-chamber experiments as early as 1958. Such experiments have application to ion-propulsion systems. 47. It has been reported that Soviet scientists at the State University imeni Shevchenko in Kiev are developing in-flight instrumentation for an ion propulsion system to operate in a power range of 75-500 kw, and that this instrumentation contract ends in early 1962. This may indicate that an ion engine with its associated power source is expected to be available by that time. 48. It is estimated that the Soviets could flight test a prototype ion-propulsion system operating at a power of about 75 kilowatts, possibly by 1964, if no major difficulties are encountered in developing the nuclear power source for the engine. A system operating at this power level could change the original orbital inclination and spiral a satellite out to an ort)it such that the satellite would re- main fixed in position over a given location on the earth's surface. This includes, ionic, plasma, arc-jet and mag- neto-hydrodynamic propulsion systems. TS 117700 Nuclear Auxiliary (non-propulsion) Power Supplies 49. We have no evidence that the Soviets have utilized nuclev heat sources for auxiliary power supplies in their space program, al- though their outstanding work in the devel- opment of thermoelectric materials has been well substantiated. Based on their capabili- ties in reactor technology, the utilization of radio-isotopes, and thermoelectric materials development, we estimate that the Soviets can develop nuclear heat sources producing in the order of several 100's of watts and suitable for use as auxiliary power supplies in missiles and space vehicles as early as 1962. III. THE SOVIET NUCLEAR MATERIALS PRO- DUCTION PROGRAM Soviet Uranium Ore Procurement 50. We estimate that by the end of 1960 the Soviet Union had procured a cumulative total of about 130,000 metric tons of recover- able uranium (Table 3, page 16). As in pre- vious years, these amounts are considerably in excess of the recoverable equivalent ura- nium metal required to support our current estimate of fissionable materials production. Nevertheless, the available evidence continues to indicate that the Soviets are expanding both their domestic and satellite procurement of uranium ore. 51. The most significant trend in the satel- lites is the continuing shift in East German mining operations from the largely depleted vein-type Saxony ores to the sedimentary- type Thuringia ores. A new concentration plant is being built at Seelingstadt which will use modern ion-exchange recovery methods to process up to 12,000 tons of ore daily. East German uranium production is therefore ex- pected to increase gradually in the next five years. Reports that a new concentration plant being built near Porubka in eastern Czechoslovakia indicate an increase in Czecho- slovakian uranium production is planned. While Poland discontinued shipment of ore TOP SE -RITED DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 to an thi ; an sli ye 52 Cl UI li bc ti u: ii ri (b)(1) f, a 1 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 to the USSR after 1958, Bulgaria, Hungary and Rumania are estimated to have supplied the USSR with several thousand tons of re- coverable equivalent uranium metal in 1960 and are expected to continue to do so at a slightly expanding rate during the next five years. 52. An increasing amount of evidence on the Chinese Peoples Republic uranium procure- ment program suggests that a fair-sized uranium raw materials base has been estab- lished. However, we believe that uranium mined in China is meant to supply the Chinese nuclear energy program and will not be shipped to the USSR.8 53. In the USSR, the Krivoy Rag district in the Ukraine is estimated to be the leading uranium producer. The Fergana Valley in Central Asia is believed to be the second largest producing area followed by the Frunze- Lake Issyk-Kul' district and the Pyatigorsk district in the northern Caucasus. The 1959 visit to the Krivoy Rog area by the McCone party have supplied in- rormation maicating mat yearly uranium pro- duction is on the order of 3,000 metric tons of equivalent uranium metal. Excellent 1956 and 1958 ground photography and 1957 aerial photography of the Pyatigorsk .plant in the northern Caucasus leads to a fairly firm esti- mate of production from this area. (Figure 3.) Information received on other uranium mining sites has been more limited, but it demonstrates that the Soviets have been able to extract uranium from a variety of deposits including veins, sandstones, oil-shales, lime- stones and sub-bituminous coals. The last type of deposit contributes a significant per- centage of uranium to their program (15 to 20 percent), and its use demonstrates an ability to develop a type of deposit largely ignored in the western world., The Soviets have matched many mining anti ore concen- �See NIE 13-2-60, The Chinese Communist Atomic Energy Program, 13 Dec. 1960. 15 tration methods used in the US; and their recovery of uranium from coals, as well as from Krivoy Rog iron ore slags, indicates native developments requiring considerable engineering capability. 54. The Soviet Bloc is estimated 136 have re- serves of at least 300,000 tons of recoverable equivalent uranium metal present in deposits similar in nature to those now mined. Of the known deposits being worked only the Thuringia deposits in East Germany and the Krivoy Rog deposits have apparent large re- serves matching many uranium mining dis- tricts of the western world. Nevertheless, Soviet exploitation of numerous small-reserve deposits has supplied, and can continue to supply sufficient uranium to meet all of the requirements of the Soviet nuclear energy pro- gram. Present mining and ore concentration costs are high, but this situation can be al: tered quickly by. the discovery of one or more large-reserve deposits similar to the Ambrosia Lake deposit in New Mexico or the Blind River deposit in Canada�deposits in which the So- viets have recently expressed considerable in- terest. There is a strong likelihood of such a development in view of the geological diver- sity of the USSR. 55. We estimate that uranium production in the Soviet Bloc will expand at the rate of 400 metric tons of recoverable equivalent uranium metal a year. At this rate, approximately 250,000 metric tons of equivalent uranium metal will have been available to the USSR through 1966. (Table 3.) This figure is sub- ject to large margins of error, however, since actual production will depend upon Soviet policies and plans. Uranium Metal 56. 'Uranium metal and other feed materials are produced on a large scale at three known locations in the Soviet Union: Elektrostal, near. Moscow; Glazov, just west of the Urals; and Novosibirsk in central Siberia. Produc- tiOn at Elektrostal reportedly increased from TOP S RICTED DATA TS 117700 (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 16 -117-P Table 3 ESTIMATED SOVIET BLOC RECOVERABLE EQUIVALENT URANIUM METAL PRODUCTION THROUGH 1966 (Metric Tons, Rounded) End of Year Pre 1946 Stocks 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 E. Bul- Ru- Total USSR Germ. Czech. garia Poland mania Hungary China Annual Total Cumu- lative 20 200 70 Nominal 300 300 130 60 30 Nondmd 200 500 200 300 50 20 Nominal 600 1,100 630 500 150 30 20 1,300 2,400 1,100 1,000 250 60 40 2,400 4,800 1,300 1,300 400 100 40 .. 3,200 8,000 2,500 1,700 500 150 40 Nominal 4,900 13,000 2,700 2,400 600 200 40 50 *(40) 6,000 19,000 4,300 3,300 800 300 40 150 (40) 8,900 28,000 4,600 3,800 1,000 400 40 300 (60) 10,000 38,000 5,600 4,300 1,200 600 40 500 .. (60) 12,000 50,000 6,300 4,600 1,400 800 40 600 Nominal (80) 14,000 64,000 7,100 5,000 1,600 900 40 700 100 (100) 15,000 79,000 7,700 5,000 1,600 1,000 40 700 200 (200) 16,000 95,000. 7,800 5,000 1,700 1,000 *(40) 800 300 (400) 17,000 110,000 8,100 5,000 1,700 1,000 (40) 800 400 (500) 17,000 130,000 8,500 5,200 1,800 1,200 (40) 800 500 (700) 18,000 150,000 8,900 5,400 1,800 1,200 (40) 1,000 600 (1,000) 19,000 170,000 9,300 5,600 2,000 1,200 (40) 1,000 700 (1,200) 20,000 190,000 9,700 5,800 2,000 1,400 (40) 1,200 800 (1,200) 21,000 210,000 10,000 6,000 2,000 1,400 (40) 1,200 900 (1,200) 22,000 230,000 11,000 6,200 2,000 1,400 (40) 1,200 1,000 (1,200) 22,000 250,000 Not included in total annual or total cumulative production since China and Poland (after 1958) have retained their domestic production. 360 tons per year as uranium metal slugs in late 1949 to about 1500 tons per year as metal or slugs and 1500 tons per year as uranium tetrafluoride in late 1957. Production values for Glazov are unknown after late 1949 when a rate of 240 tons per year (as slugs) had been attained. Ground and aerial photography shows that the Novosibirsk plant is physically a little larger than the Fernald plant in the US. The estimated Novosibirsk production rates of 9-10,000 tons of slugs per year after 1952 have been derived from Elektrostal site and process data, making a reasonable allow- ance for tlr economy of space resulting from the use of larger buildings and equipment. Thus there appears to be sufficient feed mate- rial plant capacity in the USSR to process all the uranium ore concentrate indicated by the uranium ore estimate. (See Figure 4.) TS 117700 U-235 Production 57. Two gaseous diffusion uranium isotope separation plants have definitely been identi- fied in the USSR. Photographs of the plant at Verkh-Neyvinsk in the Urals, and of the one located north of Tomsk in central Siberia, were obtained in 1959 and 1957 respectively. A probable third gaseous diffusion plant is located near Angarsk in the Lake Baykal re- gion (See Figure 4). TOP TED DATA Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Figure 4 .11oundories are not necessarily those recognized by the U.S. Government. USSR NUCLEAR MATERIALS PRODUCTION SITES 35328 8-61 (b)(1) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 1.01" bhUkCE-r Significant cumulative soviet 1.1--Z6 proauction by ultra- centrifuge or other methods is unlikely. 58. The photography of Verkh-Neyvinsk in June 1959 and Tomsk in August 1957 (See Figures 5 and 6) has added much to our knowledge of Soviet U-235 production. Construction activity observed in the photography has furnished a good basis for estimating future additions to the produc- tion capacity of the U-235 plants for periods up to about three years after the dates of photography. -A-An active expansion program was underway at Tomsk in.1957, with two new cascade buildings and about 500 megawatts of new electric power capacity under construe- o new buildings were under construe- tidn at Verkh-Neyvinsk in 1959, but a con- siderable power augmentation was underway and the oldest plant was apparently being overhauled. It is likely that the power in- crease is associated with the installation of a new and more efficient type of gaseous diffu- sion barrier in the Verkh-Neyvinsk buildings. I/ (b)(1) 17 60. During the past year a considerable amount of information about the probable Angarsk gaseous diffusion plant has become available. . buildings there similar to those at Verkh-Neyvinsk and one of the buildin s was in o - eration in the summer of 1958. is power p an as .een exp ing at very rapid rate and will probably reach a capacity of 1,000 megawatts by the end of this year. Expansion of the gaseous diffusion plant at Angarsk will probably con- tinue after 1961 using power supplied by the huge Bratsk hydroelectric statiiI This sta- tion, constructed with help frorrrt e Ministry of Medium Machine Building, is now being connected to the Angarsk site by a 500 kilo- volt transmission line. The 500 Kv line and the first Bratsk generators are scheduled to go into service in late 1961 or early 1962. 61. Our estimate of Soviet 11-235 production is presented in Table 4, in terms of cumulative production of uranium enriched to 93% 11-235 T P�...E.G-R-E-r ''' __ - RCTED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) (b)(1) (b)(1) (b)(1) (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 18 717F�S"-E-elt-E-T content.9 It includes the 93% equivalent of materials produced at lesser enrichments. Future U-235 Production Margins of Error � The Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelli- gence), Department of the Navy, does not concur in the U-235 production estimate. He considers it to be based upon assumptions which are not sup- ported by the available evidence. An analysis of the basic technology known to have been used by the Soviets and supported by evidence as late as 1959 shows that the correct values should �be materially below those given by the minimum estimate. The technology he� believes to be em- ployed is in precise aareement with the available information The completed cost re- quirements are in good accord with statements in the Soviet Encyclopedia of Atomic Energy, with statements by Aleksandrov on the cost of fuel ele- ments for power reactors and with the sale price asked by Soviets for reactors. The calculations also account f9r the very limited use of 1J-235 before late 1955./ . The Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelli- gence) , Department of the Navy, can find insuffi- cient information to justify the existence of a gaseous diffusion plant near Angarsk. He does be- lieve that heavy water is being concentrated in this area. TS 117700 (b)(1) Si Plutonium-Equivalent Production' 64. Two major plutonium-equivalent produc- tion sites have been identified in the� USSR. The earliest and largest is located near Kyshtyrn in the Urals and the second is Co. located with the I1-235 production complex at the atomic energy site north of Tomsk in central Siberia. The large atomic energy site near Krasnoyarsk, �and perhaps that at Angarsk, could also include some plutonium- equivalent production facilities, but available evidence does not confirm the existence of such facilities at these sites. It is believed un- likely that other known atomic energy sites include large plutonium production facilities, and it is very unlikely that any sites large enough to have significant plutonium pro- duction capacity would have remained wholly unassociated by intelligence with the Soviet atomic energy program. (See Figure 4.) 65. Aerial photography of Tomsk plutonium production facilities was obtained in August 1957. (See Figure 7.) A large production- reactor building has been operating there since 1955, and two dual-purpose reactor buildings and a very large chemical separa- tion plant were under construction in 1957. All three Tomsk reactor buildings are believed to be in operation by this time and others may be under construction there. The first of the dual-purpose reactor buildings is the "Si- berian Nuclear Power Station" reactor an- nounced by the Soviets at the 1958 Geneva the total reactor-products production is expressed hi terms of equivalent amounts of plutonium and is termed plutonium equivalent. For planning pur- poses 10 grams of tritium is considered equal to one kilogram of plutonium. TED DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) 3 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 -SECRET- VERKH-NEYVINSK GASEOUS DIFFUSION PUNT, SECTIONS A-D VERKH-NEYVINSK GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANT SECTION E 35331..5 t5-01 Figure is not oriented north to south as other figures because of the obliquity of the PhotograqhY. SiC-eittor Figure 5 CIA/NPIC 130-31386 CIA/NPIC DG-3887 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(3) 35331.4 8-61 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 TOMSK GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANT Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Figure 6 CIA/NIPIC DG-244 (b)(3) i pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 -seam TOMSK REACTOR AREA Figure 7 CIA/NPIC DG-516 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) Tor OECRET 19 Conference on Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy. At this time they also announced plans to build six such dual-purpose reactors at this station. 66. Less is known about the earlier plutonium production site near Kyshtym. Construction started at that site shortly after World War II, and a small production reactor went into operation in 1948. Others have been added since, but f1iir nirmhpr 1-Nrnp anti qi7PC n re not known. The Kyshtym site may also include one or more dual-purpose reactors in addition to those built only for plutonium-equivalent production. 67. The large atomic energy site near Krasnoyarsk is especially secret and secure and much of the early construction there was underground. While the complex functions (b)(1) of the site remain largely unidentified, we be- lieve that weapon development and fabrica- tion is a major purpose of the enterprise. Available evidence is insufficient to identify the existence of plutonium-equivalent production at the Krasnoyarsk site. 68. Soviet plutonium-equivalent production can be estimated on the basis of Tomsk and Ryshtym information, assuming that these sites include all Soviet production capacity. (b)(1) Because of uncertainties in these data, par- ticularly at Kyshtym, site-based estimates are subject to wide margins of errofs. T 0 P 1-- TED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) 20 (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 1: 0.1-' 1.; E 72. The USSR normally maintains large state reserves of a wide variety of strategic mate- rials. Such reserves are considered a high- priority necessity in the Communist phi- losophy. A large warehouse area noted in the 1957 photography of the Novosibirsk uranium metal plant and another reportedly adjacent to the Glazov uranium metal plant suggest that these reserves include uranium. How- ever, we lack specific information indicating the magnitude of uranium reserves, if any, or of the magnitude of reserves of comparable strategic materials. 73. A very large reserve and pipeline would be required to account for the discrepancy be- tween our estimates of uranium procurement and use. Even if early uneconomical produc- tion practices had been continued, about 1/3 of the total estimated uranium procured would be needed to produce the amounts of U-235 we esti- mate, and the present delay between uranium procurement and use would amount to more than four years. There is evidence that more economical production practices; i.e., feeding reactor tails and utilization of higher MWD/T, were at least partially employed in the 1957 and 1958 periods. These practices, if generally adopted, would indicate a still larger discrepancy between our estimates of uranium procurement and use. 74. The maintenance of a large uranium re- serve must be assumed for any estimate of cumulative Soviet plutonium equivalent to date whicli lies within the limits imposed by site inforthation even assuming that some production capacity has remained undetected. TS 117700 TOP ICTED DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) 3. 7e 3, es el rs. -es or 3o- of itY Mid Year U-235 (93%) b 11 Total / Available for Weapon Use 1950 1951 25 160 .. 1952 600 500 1953 1,550 1,400 1954 3,350 3,000 1955 6,300 6,000 1956 10,500 10,000, 1957 16,500 16,000 1958 24,000 23,500 1959 34,500 34,000 1960 51,000 50,000 1961 76,000 74,000 1962 110,000 105,000 1963 145;000 140,000 1964 190,000. 180,000 1965 235,000 225,000 1966 285,000 275,000 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 10r S.thCRET 21 Table 4 ESTIMATED SOVIET FISSIONABLE MATERIALS PRODUCTIONS (Cumulative Production in Kilograms, Rounded) Plutonium Equiva- lent e 12 90 300 -..550 1,000--:-.-- 1,500 2,000 2,700 3,400 4,200 - 5,600 8,000 11,000 15,000: 20,000. 25,000 31,000 38,000 . See paragraphs 63 and 82 for the uncertainties and ranges of error in these estimates. le Production of less highly enriched uranium is in- cluded as equivalent quantities of 93% material. . Non-weapon uses of plutonium are expected to be negligible during the period of this estimate. 11 See page 18 for the view of the Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelligence), Department of the Navy. s...FreTTO ICTED DATA Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 TS 117700 (b)(1) (b)(1) (b)(1) 22 Margins of Error Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 82. It is very improbable that actual mid- 1961 Soviet cumulative plutonium-equivalent production is more than 35% below the esti- mated krypton-based value. On the other hand, information on known plutonium pro- duction sites as well as on possible additional unidentified facilities makes it very improb- able that actual production is more than twice the estimated value. No meaningful margin of error can be assigned to post-1961 esti- mates. Actual future production will depend on Soviet plans and policies, particularly those regarding the stockpiling of small-yield tacti- cal and air defense weapons. Other Nuclear Materials 83. Lithium. 84. It is probable that the USSR has been pro- ducing enriched lithium isotopes in quantity since at least 1954, although locations and capacities of Soviet lithium isotope separation plants apre unconfirmed: Substantial in- creases in the production of lithium com- pounds within the USSR have occurred in re- cent years and we estimate that sufficient amounts of both natural and enriched lithium have been available to the USSR since 1953 TS 117700 to meet the requirements of the Soviet nuclear weapon program. 85. Heavy Water. We estimate that the heavy water 'production of the nine known Soviet heavy water plants is about 100 metric tons per year. (See Figure 4 for plant loca- tion.) This amount is believed to be ample for the needs of the Soviet nuclear program 86. U-233. The Soviets showed moderate in- terest in the procurement of thorium-bearing minerals between 1946 and_1952 87. Tritium. production of tritium up to 1961 is probably not more than 20% of the total cumulative plutonium equiv- alent. It is probable that in the period from 1957 on something less than 20% of plu- tonium-equivalent production capacity would be required to create the amount of tritium needed for the more recent weapons. Thus a small amount of U-235 will probably be di- verted from weapon uses to support a tritium production program. However, it is unlikely that the diverted U-235 will exceed 2% to 5% of estimated annual U-235 production in any one year. IV. THE SOVIET NUCLEAR WEAPON PRO- GRAM Nuclear Weapon Research and Development Installations 88. The Soviet nuclear weapon program has undoubtedly been supported by research con- ducted at a number of institutes and labora- tories in the USSR, probably including the Institute of Atomic Energy of the Academy of Sciences (formerly Laboratory II) , Moscow; the fast reactor installation at Obninsk; and the Institute of Chemical Physics, Moscow. TOP SECRET�Rit1UTED DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 0) Pc CO 1 (b)(1) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Of these, the last probably has the most im- portant role of the three in Soviet nuclear weapon development. (See Figure 8 for lo- cations.) 89. Sarova. The principal Soviet center spe- cifically concerned with nuclear weapon re- search, design and development is located at Sarova (5457N, 4325E) , about 250 miles east of Moscow. Good quality photography (Fig- ure 9) of this site obtained in February 1960 revealed a large and elaborate nuclear weapon research and development complex compar- able in size to the combined facilities of the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory and the Sandia Corporation at Albuquerque. The photography revealed signs of current and continuin� activit at the corn sie Some expansion of both opera- tional and support facilities was also under way at the time of photography. 90. Kasli. Recent analysis of July 1959 pho- tography (Figure 10) of an installation near Kasli (5612N, 6038E) indicates that it is probably concerned with nuclear weapon re- search and development. Certain areas in the complex under construction in the summer of 1959 resemble areas at Sarova and at the Nizhnyaya Tura nuclear weapons fabrication site. We estimate that the Kasli installation became operational during the latter half of 1959 and that it represents a major addition to the Soviet nuclear weapon development po- tential. 91. Kerch/Bagerovo. July 1956 photography of an airfield near Kerch/Bagerovo (4521N, 3629E) , although of poor quality, suggests that the airfield and its associated facilities are a research and development establishment or a test installation, rather than an opera- tional base. Recent reports of the function Of the base indicate that it is a research in- stallation concerned with nucledr weapon sys- tems development, particularly those involv- ing aircraft. This airfield probably provided 23 the aircraft and crews for the weapon tests at Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya. 92. Semipalatinsk. The Semipalatinsk prov- ing ground, located in northeastern Kazakh- stan about 100 miles west of Semipalatinsk, has remained active since the nucleiar tests de- tected there in 1958. 93. Comparison of two sets of photography obtained in August 1957 and April 1960 clearly shows this activity, and a review of all the available evidence suggests that the Soviets have kept a technical staff and appropriate support personnel in place at the proving ground. Maintenance of such an in-place staff would also provide the Soviets with a capability to perform research and develop- ment work related to military nuclear pro- grams not involving testing, or to other sensi- tive research and development activities. 94. Three facilities were constructed outside the fenced shot area since 1957. They con- sist of a new research facility located north- west of the main shot test area, a rectangular grid pattern about 3 miles by 5 miles in size west of the shot area, and an apparent ground zero located north-northwest of the shot area, consisting of an excavation surrounded by concentric rings of structures. (Figures 11 and 11A (April 1960 photography) .) 95. The new research facility (See Figures 12 and 13 (April 1960 photography) ) most probably is concerned with laboratory experi- ments relating to nuclear weapon develop- ment, although other functions, such as nuclear propulsion development or controlled thermonuclear research, cannot be excluded. 96. Several explanations, such as agent dis- persal studies, have been "advanced for the function of the large rectangular grid See Fi ure 14 Older grid structures north of the shot area are believed to have been used for studies in decontamination methodology, probably utilizing the fallout from weapon tests. TOP --R.TRICTED DATA Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 TS 117700 (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 24 97. The apparent ground zero which was be- ing constructed north of the enclosed shot area in April 1960 consists of numerous heavy concrete structures, revetments, bunkers, buried buildings, and above-surface structures arranged in a semicircular pattern (See Fig- ures 15 and 16 (April 1960 photography) ). The structures in the inner ring (300-500 foot radius) are heavily constructed and will prob- ably be earth covered when completed. The larger rings (1000-foot and 1500-foot radii) contain revetments and lighter structures. The area appears to be intended for use with a venting explosion, either HE or nuclear. Capabilities Prior to Resumption of Testing 100. We believe that nuclear weapons are/ aVailable for all delivery systems which We know to be in the Soviet arsenal or which We estimate to be ',under development. However, many of these weapons probably are not of optimum design, and serious gaps in the So- viet knowledge on weapons effects for certain military applications may exist. 101. We estimate that at present the Soviets have the capability to produce thermonuclear (TN) weapons in the following yield and weight classes (See Table 6) : Weapon Development Program 99. Soviet Nuclear Test Program, 1949-1958. The Soviets conducted nuclear tests at four separate locations in the USSR during the 1949-1958 period. 103. We believe that the Soviets also have the capability to produce fission weapons in a variety of types and yields (See Table 7). We esti- mate that at present the Soviets have the ja The following estimates of present Soviet capa- bilities for weapon development do not take into consideration the 1961 test series. Only preliminary data on these tests are now available. (See Table 5A on page 31) ECRET pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1 (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 T CD CD CD Figure B 40 r 12020 40 80 160 180 .60 4 , .VONTII , �...: .....,0 ,� i 11, T \ . .... _ ...' " \ � � � (27) \-. ......... P. �,/---) :. HELSINKI :�:.:"�� ' < . / r�-� 0? . �.:, (..�..,._____ ..� a. 7%. I. , \ 7. � -.:.% I '..;.., s (7' ., budinka 00414 -=-tr'. \ -1, .3., , t,. .1..,., P.A --�-\ 15,.. 0 � o&e,.. � '''') \ ..1,,, a OP , / V , 1'18,1 '..--, , 4... 046.0 N / s, o ../ ...-----Cv 1 ,-;"-- rr / /'-�, / , , / `C' / ,... V '-'----J.) ( 2-- \ \ �) ----- ...- .---, \\...- \ rl,c� /0'7 /. izotS* 0) 0 v A ,------, ,ri ble) 1,4� 4.habarovs 0 9., .�.., ....... � - 45) uom � necessarily those a G 1.)\-. u.overnment. . ---- \ � , ' i �-`- ....., N.' ,1-� 't�� '-') .,. )\ ) `. .n s# z _ ____ g of N � 41 e \--..., " ) / ....--, , msk -..., efr � '''S' ),//z/ (1) %----- / r ,b KRASNO1ARS irsk We. - '(Poss i '4I LA r � "1:. -, ...- ir. qs* �37/ ,,-.' . PR �Ifina..,,t/."' L-,�.,-.- r::...... ,-,.. , . a ,...Isas, � ----,..,,,,:,..:74...,,t .. .... '-'--).6.'77.!'".. Boundaries are not ..... .. d by h recognize te ------ tO 80 100 120 at. -� C,40 Weapons Research ' USSR and Development NUCLEAR WEAPON RESEARCH Nuclear Test Site AND TEST AREAS (Number detected at each area 0 250 500 1000 1500 2000 .15"reR1M.. shovvn in parenthesis) .�. -1�i v..-. Statute Miles 0 250 500 . 1000 1500 2000 '11 -- Railroad (3elected) Kilometers .. � . -,35326 8-61 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 -SEGRST Figure 9 SAROVA NUCLEAR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INSTALLATION _ r f 35331.6 8-61 HIGH EXPLOSIVES RESEARCH, TESTING AND STORAGE AREAS CI AiNPIC 1:10. 1450 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(3) 35331.7 8-61 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 PROBABLE TEST AREA AT KASLI Approved for for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Figure 10 CIA/NPIC DG-3845 (b)(3) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 sfeRET c. 35331.8 SEMIPALATINSK NUCLEAR WEAPON PROVING GROUND Figure 11 � , ,11.1 �Pirk-Vrig CIA/NPIC DG 3653 I; I J Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 SEMIP,ALATINSK NUCLEAR WEAPON PROVING GROUND Figure 11A OLD RESEARCH FACILITY STORAGE AREA U/C cd1.1 0 1 3 I I NAUTICAL MILES GRID SITE 3 1. GRID SITE 4 35331.9 8-61 L- - POSS HIGH EXPLOSIVES TEST AREA OLD HIGH EXPLOSIVES TEST AREA GRID SITE 2 PROB COMMAND POST SECURITY FENCE AND PERIMETER ROAD SHOT GROUND SUPPORT AREA MAJOR SUPPORT AND HOUSING AREA 25 NM EW RESEARCH FACILITY NEW U/I FACTY CIA/NPIC DG-3909 _ 35331.10 8-61 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 NEW RESEARCH FACILITY AT SEMIPALATINSK Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Figure 12 4.1* CIA/NIPIG DG-3910 CRE7 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 NEW RESEARCH FACILITY AT SEMIPALATINSK TOP 51' x 51' BASE 71'S 71' CONTROL AREA TOP 71' x 31' X 30' H. BASE 71' X 71' LEGEND * MAST A WIDE BASE TOWER � POLE a GUARD TOWER o SEARCHLIGHT TOWER EARTH FILL CT, EXCAVATION COVERED DITCH EARTH SCAR FORM LINE 100 0 100 1 FEET / 35331.11 8-61 500 0 385' A 63' X 31' � 80'H. � 12x tvf 412. X 12. 344' r \:"\:\ \r\ 1\\ \lit\ 1550' 23' AI A � 70' X 35' � AUll � A 11 II 42. X 31. DIA. U ii Ny>11 X 8' 15' X 12' 71. X 31' 1030' Figure 13 // ll /// /1 /1 TO SHOT GROUND , SUPPORT // BASE 8000' // I/ // It SECURITY POST 40' X 31' 20' X 15' 15' X 12' 15. X 10' ' OPERATIONS AREA CIA/NPIC 05-3911 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 GRID SITES AT SEMIPALATINSK BASES OF OLD BUILDINGS---": BOMBING MARKER TRAIL ti) BOMBING MARKER GRID SPACING 100 M. BASES OF OLD BUILDINGS 8 KM. GRID SITE 3 /IT BOMBING MARKER \ 8.1 KM. GRID SITE 4 BASES OF OLD BUILDINGS Figure 14 0 0 0 ROSS METEOROLOGICAL STATION POSS INSTRUMENTATION POINT 5000 0 5000 , , I FEET 35331.12 8-61 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 CIA/NPIC DG-3920 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 MAST pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 APPARENT GROUND ZERO AT SEMIPALATINSK POSS. STORAGE AREA EXCAVATION OR HE CHARGE � ROAD ..e 12 CONCRETE ATCH PLANT 17 35331.14 8-61 500 0 . 1_ FEET Figure 16 --- POWER LINE X FENCE POSS. FENCE EXCAVATION 44Y4,1 MOUND BUILDING OR STRUCTURE 1500' Li� e Ft -E-T 1000 CIA/NPIC OG-3917 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 t:J t:1 1-3 OOLLIT JOE Table 5 EVALUATION OF SOVIET NUCLEAR TESTS (1949-1958) Dimensions 4 Approximate Total Materials 5 Burst Yield Est Wt Est Dia No. Date Location 1, 2 Height (ft)2 (KT) 3 (ibs) (in) 1 29 Aug 49 Semi Surface 2 24 Sep 51 Semi Surface 3 18 Oct 51 Semi Air 4 12 Aug 53 Semi Surface 5 23 �Aug 53 Semi Air 6 3 Sep 53 Semi Air 0 P1:1 7 10 Sep 53 Semi Air 8 14 Sep 54 Totskoye 1,000 53.1N, 51.9E 1,500 9 3 Oct 54 Semi Air 10 5 Oct 54 Semi Air 11 8 Oct 54 Semi 7 < few 1,000 12 23 Oct 54 Semi Air 13 26 Oct 54 Semi Air 14 30 Oct 54 Semi Air 15 29 Jul 55 Semi Surface 16 2 Aug 55 Semi Air 17 21 Sep 55 NZ Underwater 70.6N, 54.2E 18 6 Nov 55 Semi 3,500 19 22 Nov 55 Semi 4,500 See footnotes at end of Table 5A. Remarks C.71 001,241 t SI 1-3 0 tzi 29 19 Jan 57 Kapustin Yar 49.5N, 48.0E 30 8 Mar 57 Semi 31 3 Apr 57 Semi Table 5 (Continued) Dimensions' Approximate Total Materials 5 JOE Burst Yield Est Wt Est Dia No. Date,.... Lotation 1, 2 Height (ft) 3 (KT) 3 (lbs) (in) Remarks 20 2 Feb 56 Caspian Sea Air 21 16 Mar 56 Semi Surface 22 25 Mar 56 Semi Surface 23 24 Aug 56 Semi Tower 24 30 Aug 56 Semi 3,300 25 2 Sep 56 Semi >1,500 26 10 Sep 56 Semi 1,500 3,000 27 17 Nov 56 Semi 7,800 28 14 Dec 56 Semi Air Air Air Air See footnotes at end of table 5A. ts3 Table 5 (Continued) Dimensions 4 Approximate Total Materials 5 V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of JOE Burst Yield Est Wt Est Dia No. Date Location Height (ft) 3 (KT) (lbs) (in) 32 6 Apr 57 Semi Air 33 10 Apr 57 Semi 6,800 34 12 Apr 57 Semi Air 35 16 Apr 57 Semi 5,000 7,000 36 22 Aug 57 Semi >2,000 37 7 Sep 57 NZ Surface 7036N, 5412E 38 13 Sep 57 Semi Unknown 39 24 Sep 57 NZ 7,000 7348N, 5524E 10,000 40 26 Sep 57 Semi Air 41 6 Oct 57 NZ 7,000 7348N, 5500E 42 10 Oct 57 NZ Underwater 7036N, 5412E 43 28 Dec 57 Semi Air 44 4 Jan 58 Semi Unknown Unknown 45 17 Jan 58 Semi 46 23 Feb 58 NZ 7418N, 5348E 47 27 Feb 58 NZ. OOLLIT S,L 7418N, 5400E Unknown 10,500 10,300 See footnotes at end of table 5A. Remarks OOLLIT SI JOE No. Date Location 1,2 48 27 Feb 58 NZ 7424N, 6336E 49 13 Mar 58 Semi 50 14 Mar 58 NZ 7415N, 5420E 51 14 Mar 58 Semi 1-3 C 52 15 Mar 58 Semi 53 20 Mar 58 Semi 54 21 Mar 58 NZ 7400N, 6000E 55 22 Mar 58 Semi . 56 30 Sep 58 NZ 7345N, 5445E 57 30 Sep 58 NZ 1324N, 5500E 58 2 Oct 58 NZ 7345N, 5430E 59 2 Oct 58 NZ 7338N, 5730E Table 5 (Continued) Dimensions 4 Approximate Total Materials 5 Burst Yield Est Wt Est Dia Height (ft) 8 (KT) 3 (lbs) (in) Remarks See footnotes at end of Table 5A. 10,800 Air Air Air Air Air >7,500 Unknown 6,800 8,500 Air Air Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 OOLLIT SI Table 5 (Continued) Dimensions 4 Approximate Total Materials 5 JOE Burst Yield Est Wt Est Dia No. Date Location 1, 2 Height (ft) 3 (KT) (lbs) (in) 60 4 Oct 58 NZ 7037N, 5445E Air 61 5 Oct 58 NZ Air 7037N, 5445E 62 6 Oct 58 NZ Air 7042N, 5455E � 63 10 Oct 58 NZ Air 7338N, 5415E 1-3 64 12 Oct 58 NZ 4,500 7330N, 5500E 65 15 Oct 58 NZ 7,600 7400N, 5500E 66 18 Oct 58 NAZ 6,500 7342N, 5454E 67 19 Oct 58 NZ Air 7350N, 5735E 68 20 Oct 58 NZ Air 7335N, 5418E � 69 21 Oct 58 NZ Air (?) 7038N, 5445E 70 22 Oct 58 NZ 7,000 7348N, 5506E See footnotes at end of table 5A. Remarks 1-3 Cn cr) JOE No. Date'�-� Location 1, 2 Burst Height (ft) 71 24 Oct 58 NZ 7400N, 5800E 7,600 72 25 Oct 58 NZ 7400N, 5500E Air 73 1 Nov 58 Kapustin Yar 4930N, 4800E Air (?) 74 3 Nov 58 Kapustin Yar Air (?) 4930N, 4800E See footnotes at end of table 5A. Table 5 (Continued) Dimensions 4 Approximate Total Materials 5 Yield Est Wt Est Dia (KT) 3 (lbs) (in) Remarks Table 5A V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of OOLLII SI No. Date Location 1, PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF SOVIET NUCLEAR TESTS IN 1961* Yield 2 Burst Height (ft)3 (KT) Remarks 75 1 Sept 61 Semi Below tropopause 76 4 Sept 61 Semi Below tropopause 77 5 Sept 61 Semi Below tropopause 78 6 Sept 61 Semi Air - 79 6 Sept 61 Kapustin Yar Air 80 10 Sept 61 NZ 7,000 81 10 Sept 61 NZ Below tropopause 82 12 Sept 61 NZ 4,000 83 13 Sept 61 Semi Below tropopause 84 13 Sept 61 NZ Below tropopause 85 14 aept 61 NZ 5,500 86 16 Sept 61 NZ 3,000 87 17 Sept 61 Semi Below tropopause 88 18 Sept 61 NZ 5,000 89 19 Sept 61 Semi Below Tropopause 90 20 Sept 61 NZ 4,500 91 21 Sept 61 Semi Air 92 22 Sept 61 NZ 4,000 93 2 Oct 61 NZ Air 94 4 Oct 61 Semi Below Tropopause 95 4 Oct 61 NZ 7,000 96 6 Oct 61 NZ 8,000 97 6 Oct 61 Kapustin Yar Air 98 8 Oct 61 NZ Air 99 11 Oct 61 Semi Sub-surface 100 12 Oct 61 Semi Air _ (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 32 TOP SECRET capability to produce fission weapons in the following yield and weight classes (See Table 7) . 104. The USSR has demonstrated at least orie preinitiation-proof, boosted weapon of hi� rperformance (b)(1) and whim we estimate the most likely candidate', for some Soviet thermonuclear primaries. 105. Gun-Asserablu Weapons. it is considered that, because of the simplicity of design, weapons of this type are probably available in stockpile. These weapons would, however, require large amounts of fissionable materials. Therefore, we estimate the Soviets would stockpile only small quantities of .these weapons. Versions could be available for their 310 mm gun and 420 mm mortar. Table 6 SOVIET THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS (b)(1) (b)(1) (b)(1) ECRET TS 117700 RES TRICTE pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) 33 107. No direct information is available on the specific nuclear weapon types in the USSR stockpile. (b)(1) Table 7 SOVIET FISSION WEAPONS ICTED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) 34 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Development Capabilities Prior to Resumption (b)(1) of Testing 14 Such changes would require at least a mock-up test. 111. The Soviet capability to improve their present weapons designs is probably more lim- ited than that of the US because their pri- mary reliance on air drops and airborne diagnostic instrumentation would necessarily result in less detailed diagnostic data on weapon performance. While it is conceivable that the Soviets could stockpile weapons\ without benefit of tests, we believe this unlikely in view of the ample multi-megaton capability they already possess and which they can readily accommodate in existing ICBMs. Moreover, the additional few megatons would be obtained at a cost of 100 kilograms of U-235 per megaton. The Soviets would be hard pressed to improve in the light-weight TN class without tests be- cause of their limited experience in this area. " This section does not consider improvements re- sulting from tests beginning in September 1961. TS 117700 113. We believe that there could be only limited improvement in fission weapons to be stockpiled without further nuclear testing. b)(1) (b)(1) (b)(1) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) TOF SECT improvements with Unrestricted Testing 115. With continued unrestricted testing, the Soviets could approach the theoretical limits (b)(1) performance in all yield-to-weight classes. 116. Fission Weapons/Primaries. We esti- mate that the Soviets could develop light- weight, low-yield fission devices eaualling our own capability. weight primaries would be a necessary part of an effort to develop light-weight thermo- nuclear weapons in the few hundred pound category. In addition, if they have not already done so, they could develop tactical weapons of reduced fission yield and frac- tional-kiloton weapons where, at least con- ceptually, it appears possible to detonate sub- kilogram quantities of plutonium. The So- viets may also attempt to develop tactical war- heads with particularly enhanced radiation yields. (b)(1) 117. Thermonuclear. 35 118. The Soviets have recently stated that they "have worked out designs for creating a series of super-powerful nuclear bombs of 20, 30, 50, and 100 million tons of TNT." The statements further assert a capability to de- liver such warheads to any point in the world with rockets similar to existing snace boosters 0 P TRICTED DATA Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 TS 117700 (b)(1) 36 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) -c12-09-1;"�ff-E-eit-E-T" Fabrication and Stockpiling (See Figure 8A) 119. For some years, there had been indica- tions that a large industrial installation at Nizhnyaya Tura (5845N, 5955E) in the north central Urals was involved in some way in the Soviet atomic energy program. Analy- sis of photography of this installation ob- tained in July 1959 confirmed that a major nuclear weapon complex involving facilities for the fabrication, assembly, and stockpiling of nuclear weapons existed at this location (See Figure 17). , Other significant facilities within the complex include a high-explosive (b)(1) test area and a possible lithium-isotope sep- aration plant. is clearly a nuclear weapon stockpile site and is probably the first Soviet national stockpile. (See Figure 18.) We believe that the earliest series-produced weapons in the Soviet program were fabri- cated and stored at the Nizhnyaya Tura com- plex in 1951. 120. A second Soviet nuclear weapon fabrica- tion, assembly, and stockpile complex is lo- cated/about 240 n.m. south of Nizhnyaya Tura in the vicinity of Yuryuzan. Unfortunately, the quality of the photography (obtained at the same time as the Nizhnyaya Tura cover- age) is poor. From what can be discerned, however, the installation at Yuryuzan appears (b)(1) generally to duplicate parts of the Nizhnvau. Tura complex. We are uncertain as to the date of initial operation of this com- plex, but we believe it was constructed at a substantially later date than the Nizhnyaya Tura installation. 121. Another atomic energy site, part of which may be associated with the nuclear weapon program, is located north of Krasnoyarsk in central Siberia. This large, early site is char- acterized by extensive tunnelling and many of its facilities are probably underground. The probable weapons functions of this site include research and development,, fabrication, and possibly stockpiling. The extensive security and underground nature of the site is diffi- cult to explain, but indicates an unusual So- viet sensitivity about this site. National Assembly and Stockpile Sites 122. In addition to the national stockpile sites at Nizhnyaya Tura and Yuryuzan, national assembly lad stneknile sites have been nhn- togranhed. (1)( 1 ) TOP SE TS 117700 RE TED DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 NIZHNYAYA TURA NUCLEAR ENERGY COMPLEX 35331.16 8-61 _J CIA/NPIC DG-3683 i pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) 710-P�S-E-e-R-Er-T Storage Sites at Arctic Staging Bases 125. nuclear weapon storage fa- cilities are believed to be located in the vi- cinity of probable major Long Rang Aviation staging airfields in the Arctic. , Soviet Airfield Storage Sites 128. We have photographic evidence that op- erational storage sites for nuclear weapons are associated with certain airfields in the, Soviet Union. (b)(1) 37 130. All of the above airfield sites are home bases for Soviet Long Range Aviation units except two which appear to serve Naval Avia- tion. There are indications that similar stor- age sites exist at other Soviet airfields and we estimate that all primary LRA bases have a nuclear weapon storage capability. Other Operational Storage Facilities 131. We have no firm evidence of the existence of operational storage facilities specifically designed for nuclear weapons other than those at LRA and naval airfield sites. However, the Soviets may well have a nuclear storage capa- bility at a number of tactical and naval air- fields. Soviet tactical doctrine and training, and nuclear testing specifically oriented to ground and naval requirements, indicate that (b)(1) RICTED DATA TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C068511041111111MMEIMMIMW 38 TOP SECRET nuclear weapon storage sites are probably also available to units of the Soviet ground forces and to certain naval surface and submarine forces. 132. The Soviet guided missile program has clear requirements for nuclear warheads, par- ticularly in strategic attack and certain air defense applications. Although there is to date no confirming evidence, we would expect to find special security arrangements and pro- visions for check-out and storage of nuclear warheads for all deployed surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missile units having mis- siles of 100 n.m. range or greater. Although we estimate that the Soviets have tested at least three nuclear warheads in surface-to-air missiles, available photography on surface-to- air missile sites has not as yet revealed any characteristics associated with nuclear weap- on handling and storage at operational sites. 133. While there is no direct evidence to indi- cate that the Soviets have selected nuclear warheads for their Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) system, photography of the Sary Sha- gan ABM research and development site re- veals a "high-hat" shaped building A nuclear warhead would be particularly attractive to the Soviets� for use in an ABM system because it would providt large lethal radii against light-weight re-entry vehicles, particularly at high alti- tudes. 134. The Soviet nuclear weapon logistics sys- tem, although it reveals effective planning for and implementation of the dispersal concept, does not appear to have a capability for rapid movement or preparation of weapons for op- erational use in a compressed time period. The natibnal sites do not have easy access to an airfield. In order to move weapons from the natioyial sites to the operational storage sites, it is necessary to carry them 15-20 miles by truck from the site over good, all-weather roads, to the railroad, by rail to the airfield and then again by truck to the airfield storage site. TS 117700 135. At the operational sites, at least until 1958, the requirement for assembly operatinnQ to prepare weapons for strike (b)(1) brie cipparent, reuctnee on pit-loading of the aircraft confirm our general impression that the Soviet system was a slow, cumbersome and inefficient one by US standard& We believe that the Soviets had not yet generally adopted the practice of storing their weapons in an operational configuration, although there is some indication that they are concerned with this problem and are taking corrective action. Control of Nuclear Weapons 136. There are two distinct categories of nu- clear weapon storage in the USSR, each sep- arately administered and controlled. The first consists of national storage facilities at the national assembly and stockpile site. We believe that these sites are operated by the Ministry of Medium Machine Building. The second class of storage houses those weapons immediately required to implement military missions. These weapons are stored at mili- tary bases in sites corresponding approxi- mately to Service Storage Facilities in the US program and include the arctic storage bases and the Types I and II airfield sites. We be- lieve these weapons are controlled by the Min- istry of Defense, probably by a specialized cen- tral element of that Ministry. 137. The authority to decide whether or not to employ nuclear weapons in a given situation is probably vested specifically in the Military High Command, which in peacetime com- prises the Minister of Defense and his imme- diate subordinates. Major operational com- mands in the field are believed to have a spec- ified number of nuclear weapons, and the field commanders probably have some discre- tion in determining how the weapons are to be employed. From the standpoint of rapid and effective response to various military con- tingencies, it is quite logical for the Ministry of Defense to provide the command mecha- nism for controlling the release of weapons in operational storage as well as for deciding ICTED DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) i pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 i pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) 35-ii 1. 19 6-b1 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 1-' l; E whether or not employment of nuclear weap- ons might be militarily desirable in given sit- uations. It is virtually certain, however, that any decision made within the Ministry of De- fense to employ nuclear weapons would re- quire ratification by the top political leader- ship, and that the ultimate decision on whether or not to initiate a nuclear attack would be made by the Presidium of the Cen- tral Committee of the Communist Party. V. POSSIBLE SOVIET ALLOCATIONS OF FISSIONABLE MATERIALS TO WEAPON STOCKPILES 138. Sufficient information is available to es- timate the major characteristics, i.e., weights, yields and materials composition, of nuclear weapons available to the Soviet arsenal. In addition, broad judgments can be made as to Soviet plans for the employment of nuclear weapons, the relative emphasis on types of weapons for various missions, and general Soviet nuclear capabilities. These judgments are derived from a number of considerations: the Soviet nuclear test program through 1958; estimated availability of fissionable materials; evidence on stockpiling practices; Soviet doc- trine on the use of nuclear weapons; Soviet strategy and military policy; and estimated Soviet development and deployment of weap- ons systems. Our information is sufficient to delineate, within broad limits the general size and composition of the Soviet nuclear stock- pile, but it is not of wfficient quality to per- mit detailed allocations. 139. Future projections of the Soviet nuclear weapon stockpile are highly tentative. Our estimates of the present materials stockpile are subject to margins of error which become greater over the next few years (See para- graphs 63 and 82). No meaningful margin of error can be stated after 1961 for the estimate of plutonium equivalent, or after 1963 for the estimate of cumulative U-235 production. Therefore, this section is addressed priimarily to a consideration of the Soviet nuclear weap- on stockpile in the current period. 39 The Soviet Test Program 140. We estimate that the present Soviet stockpile consists primarily of weapons devel- oped from nuclear tests conducted prior to November 1958. New weapon designs being tested in the current series which began on 1 September 1961 probably would not enter the stockpile for about one to two years. How- ever, the current tests may also have the ob- jective of proving some previously untested weapons from the present stockpile. If the Soviets engaged in clandestine testing, some of the current tests would be designed to ex- ploit the results achieved. Further analysis will be required to determine the design of recently tested devices and to establish the objectives of the current test series. 141. The Soviet test program over the years has reflected the development of nuclear weapons to meet a wide variety of military requirements. The 74 Soviet tests detected through 1958 were almost evenly divided among the low-yield, medium-yield and high- yield tests." Some of the low- and medium- yield tests probably related to the develop- ment of thermonuclear weapons. Likewise, some of the high-yield shots may have con- tributed to the improvement of the lower yield weapons. However, beginning in November 1955, when the Soviets tested their first two-stage thermonuclear weapon, greater em- phasis was placed on the high-yield category. Of the 31 tests detected during 1958, about one-half were high-yield shots, and 10 of these were in the megaton range. 142. Tables 6 and 7 present weapon designs which we estimate to be available to the pres- ent stockpile. These designs are based on spe- cific Soviet tests detected through 1958 and represent a selection of the best of the weap- ons tested in various weight classes. The list- ing in these tables, however, is probably not complete. R ET4rCED DATA TS 117700 (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 40 TOP L-11I5i' In addi- tion, the listing does not contain any untested weapons, developed or extrapolated from tested devices, which the USSR may have stockpiled. Even with these omissions, however, it is evi- dent that a wide spectrum of fission and ther- monuclear weapon designs is now available to the Soviets. Availability of Fissionable Materials 143. We estimate that the total amount of fissionable materials available for fabrication into weapons increased considerably during the past year. We estimate that production in this period has increased total Soviet stocks of U-235 by about 45 percent, and 7f nintn- nium-equivalent by about 30 percent. Soviet Military Doctrine and Policy 144. Although the Soviets cannot be certain as to the nature and duration of a general war, they appear to assume that it would commence with massive nuclear attacks upon the homelands of the opponents. Nuclear weapons would also be employed in the sub- sequent struggle which would be character- ized by a total commitment of remaining forces and weapons. In any future conflict short of general war we have estimated that the Soviets probably would seek to exclude the use of nuclear weapons because of their superiority in conventional forces. At the out- set of such a conflict they would probably make a considerable effort to avoid being the first /to use nuclear weapons, but would un- doubtedly respond, in kind, to Western use of "For the view of the Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelligence), Department of the Navy see pages 18 and 21. TS 117700 nuclear weapons, if they considered it mili- tarily necessary.22 145. We believe that the Soviets will continue to maintain substantial forces in being and that, insofar as is appropriate to their mis- sions, these forces will be dual purpose, ca- pable of employing nuclear or nonnuclear weapons. If as we estimate, the Soviets have not yet achieved a state of "nuclear plenty," the various missions necessarily have to com- pete for allocations of fissionable material. Considering our estimates of Soviet strategy, we believe that the USSR has given the largest allocation of fissionable material to its long- range attack forces. Using as a basis the esti- mated characteristics and numbers of avail- able delivery vehicles, we believe it possible to make a rough judgment concerning the amount of material involved in this allocation. There are so many possible combinations of requirements and allocations for Soviet air defense forces, theater field forces, and naval forces that we have not attempted to assess the amount of material allotted to each of these forces. Long Range Striking Forces Long Range Aviation 146. There is ample evidence that the Soviets, early in their nuclear weapons program, de- cided upon the extensive deployment of nu- clear weapons to Long Range Aviation. The Soviets probably began construction of the nuclear storage sites which have been identi- fied at numerous Long Range Aviation bases in 1952, and we estimate that all primary LRA bases have nuclear weapon storage. In their test programs, the Soviets clearly stressed the rapid development of thermonuclear weapons suitable for delivery as bombs and selected weapons for air-to-surface missiles. We be- lieve that the Soviets have provided nuclear weapons for the bombers of Long Range Avia- tion intended for weapons delivery in the event of general war. They may have pro- 'For a full discussion of this subject, see NIE 11-4-60, "Main Trends in Soviet Capabilities and Policies," Paras. 91-94, T.S., dated 1 December 1960. TOP SECRE R E S � DATA Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 OP SE 41 A. it mili- 1 continue being and their mis, rpose, ca- onnuclear viets have ,r plenty," Te to corn- material, ; strategy, ,he largest ) its long- is the esti- ; of avail- .t possible ming the allocation. lations of Soviet air and naval to assess o each of (b)(1) ie Soviets, gram, de- nt of nu- ;ion. The )n of the en identi- tion bases nary LRA In their ressed the r weapons I selected � We be- d nuclear Lnge Avia- ry in the have pro- see NIE Mites and .ukber 1060. vided a certain number of weapons for mul- tiple bomb loads and for restrikes by surviving aircraft. Virtually all of these weapons would probably be high-yield types, and many would probably be in the megaton range. 147. The numbers of weapons allocated to Long Range Aviation could vary widely de- pending upon operational planning, the size of weapons employed and other factors. Long Range Aviation could now have on the order of 1,000 nuclear weapons. This number of weapons might require about 40 percent of the estimated U-235 stockpile and about 35 percent of the estimated stocks of plutonium equivalent. In view of the growing demands of Soviet missile forces and our estimate that the long range bomber force will decrease somewhat, we do not foresee any increase in the number of nuclear weapons allocated to Long Range Aviation.23 Missiles 148. Included in the long range attack forces are ICBMs, medium range (700n.m. and 1,100 n.m.), and submarine-launched ballistic mis- siles. Missiles employed in an initial attack on land-based retaliatory targets and on ur- ban-industrial centers would probably be equipped with thermonuclear warhea rig at. nr near the maximum yields available. The Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelli- gence) , Department of the Navy, does not concur in these impiied allocations because he believes the availability of Soviet fissionable material to be ma- terially below that given in the majority estimate, as pointed pit in the footnotes on pages 18 and 21. In addition, he feels that the insufficiency of evi- dence on actual Soviet weapon apportionment and the wide margins of error inherent in fissionable material estimates are such that these estimated allocations are only possibilities. 149. We estimate that the Soyiet long range attack forces now have some 10-25 ICBM's and 250-300 medium range missiles available for launching in an initial salvo.24 The 28 Soviet missile submarines estimated to be in service probably carry a total of about 80 short-range (150 or 350 n.m.) ballistic mis- siles. Assuming a present ICBM inventory of about two missiles per launcher and an MRBM inventory of about three missiles per launcher, the Soviets would have an opera- tional inventory of 800 to 1,000 missiles in all these categories. We believe �that nuclear warheads would be provided for all these missiles. 150. We estimate that maximum yield war- heads would be used in ICB'M's, submarine- launched missiles, and MRBM's for an intial salvo, and that the remaining MRBM's would be equipped with nuclear warheads of varying yields. Such an allocation would consume between 30 and 40 percent of the estimated stock of plutonium equivalent, and 25 to 35 percent of the U-235 stockpile. Thus, consid- ering also the possible allocations to Long Range Aviation, Soviet long-range attack forces may consume about 65-75 percent of the plutonium equivalent stockpile and about 65-75 percent of the U-235 stockpile.25 151. Soviet missile strength will continue to grow over the next few years. We have esti- mated that in mid-1963 the Soviets will have some 75-125 ICBM's and about 350-450 MRBMs/IRBMs on launcher.26 In the same period, we have estimated only a modest in- The representative of Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF believes that Soviet long range attack forces now have about 60 ICBM's on launcher. (See the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF footnote to NIE 11-8/1-61: "Strength of Soviet Long Range Missile Forces" for his views on this subject.) See footnote 23 for the view of the Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelligence) . 28 The representative of the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF believes that in mid-1963 the Soviets will have about 250 ICBM's on launchers. (See the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF footnote to NIE 11-8/1-61: "Strength of Soviet Long Range Missile Forces" for his views on this subject.) ICTED- DATA pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 TS 117700 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) (b)(1) 42 TOP SECRET crease in the number of missile submarines and a gradual decline in Long Range Aviation strength. Thus we believe that the future nuclear material requirements of Soviet long- range attack forces will be largely a function of the Soviet ballistic missile buildup. Air Defense 152. A few Soviet nuclear tests appear to have been related to the development of nuclear warheads for employment in air defense. This evidence does not indicate that the So- viets have developed a nuclear warhead suit- able for use in an air-to-air missile. However, the possibility that the Soviets have developed such warheads cannot be excluded. We con- tinue to estimate that the Soviets have avail- able nuclear warheads suitable for use in sur- face-to-air missiles, although there is no evi- dence of their deployment to SAM sites. 153. The rapid and extensive deployment of surface-to-air missile sites in the USSR is in- dicative of the high priority accorded the air defense mission. Of the three SAM systems now believed to be operational, deployment of the SA-2 is by far the most widespread. We estimate that 350-400 SA-2 sites are now op- erational at about 70 urban-industrial areas in the USSR, others have been deployed for de- fense of military installations and field forces. We believe that within the next few years the Soviets will have deployed roughly 500 SA-2 sites at some 100 urban-industrial areas, pos- sibly 80-120 SA-2 units for defense of field forces, and an unknown additional number for defense of such military installations as ballistic missiles sites. 154. Although Soviet SAM systems are de- signed to be effective with HE warheads against aerodynamic targets, nuclear war- heads would be 'required to give a significant probability for destruction of the nuclear weapons themselves. Such warheads would also increase the kill probability for the de- struction of the delivery vehicles. We believe these considerations would impel the Soviets to provide some portion of their surface-to-air missiles with nuclear warheads. TS 117700 (b)(1) we doubt that the Soviets have equipped a large percentage of their surface-to-air mis- sile force with nuclear warheads. However, some nuclear warheads have probably been provided for the defense of Moscow and per- haps for other major urban-industrial cen- ters. Allocation of nuclear warheads for sur- face-to-air missiles will probably increase over the next few years, but we consider it unlikely that the Soviets will seek to provide such war- heads for all missile units or sites. 155. We have estimated that the Soviets will probably begin at least limited deployment of an antimissile system in the period 1963-1966. Several of the thermonuclear devices tested in 1958 might lend themselves to such applica- tion. We believe that the Soviets have not conducted nuclear tests in space or above about 30,000 feet and that they probably lack basic effects data on high altitude and space detonations. The lack of such data probably would hinder, but not prevent, Soviet develop- ment of a suitable nuclear warhead. There is some evidence that the Soviets intend to use nuclear warheads within the atmosphere and fragmentation warheads outside of the at- mosnhere (b)(1) 156. We have no estimate as to the magnitude of a projected Soviet antimissile deployment program. However, if such a system were to be widely deployed, it might place new and heavy demands upon Soviet stocks of fission- able materials which would be felt even before actual deployment. Support of Ground Operations 157. There is ample evidence in current So- viet military doctrine and training that the Soviets contemplate the use of nuclear weap- ons on the battlefield in support of ground operations. This doctrine envisions delivery of nuclear weapons by a variety of methods including rifled artillery. free rockets, guided missiles, and aircraft. TOPS CTED DATA (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (b)(1) The larger medium- and high- yield weapons could be delivered by aircraft or by the types of surface-to-surface missiles now believed available for ground support. We have estimated that the Soviets could now have large numbers of short range missiles (up to 350 n.m.) but we believe that only a small portion of the total inventory would now be equipped with nuclear warheads. However, substantial numbers of the 150 n.m. and 350 n.m. missiles actually deployed prob- ably have nuclear warheads available. Vir- tually all medium-range missiles (700 and 1,100 n.m.) available for support of field forces would be equipped with nuclear warheads of varying yields. 158. We believe that the present Soviet mate- rials stockpile does not permit the allocation of very large numbers of low-yield nuclear weapons for tactical uses. Within the next few years, the limitations imposed by the availability of fissionable materials will have eased considerably, and Soviet nuclear ground support capabilities will be greatly improved. Naval Operations 159. There is firm evidence supporting the development of nuclear weapons for naval missions. Of the weapons tested by the USSR, a number of medium- and low-yield weapon types would be suitable for use against naval targets. There have been nuclear tests in the Novaya Zemlya area which almost certainly relate to haval effects or to the development of naval weapons. We have evidence of nu- clear weapon storage facilities at naval air- fields and believe that nuclear weapon storage sites are probably also available to certain na- val, surface, and submarine-launched missiles. 43 160. The allocation to Soviet naval forces al- most certainly is being increased with the growth in the numbers of guided missiles available to naval units. We have estimated that all submarine-launched ballistic missiles probably will be equipped with thermonuclear warheads. Nuclear warheads probably liave also been provided for some portion of� the air-to-surface missiles employed by Naval Avi- ation, and for some of the cruise-type missiles now employed by a few surface vessels. Lim- ited numbers of nuclear bombs, depth charges, torpedoes, and mines are probably available for direct support of naval operations. The growing requirement for more effective anti- submarine weapons to meet the threat posed by US missile submarines probably will result in increased allocations to naval forces. Summary 161. We believe that the long-range striking forces have been given the largest allocation of fissionable materials, and that at present the Soviet weapons stockpile can support mas- sive nuclear attacks against targets in Eurasia and North America. In view of the large al- location estimated for the long range attack forces, and the size and nature of the overall materials stockpile, limitations are imposed on the numbers of weapons available for other air, ground, and naval operations. These lim- itations necessarily affect military planning. However, we consider it unlikely that the availability of fissionable materials for nu- clear weapons is a factor which in itself sig- nificantly limits Soviet policy. We have esti- mated a considerable growth in the Soviet fis- sionable materials stockpile which should keep pace with the estimated growth in Soviet missile capabilities for long-range attack, and also ease the limitations noted above. ICTED DATA TS 117700 NM& Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 ANNEX A Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C0685110441111IMMEMINNIIMMEMIll 45 ANNEX A RESEARCH LABORATORIES SUPPORTING THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM 1 1. Although many laboratories throughout the Soviet Union are engaged in the develop- ment of various aspects of the atomic energy program, only a few, aside from those directly under the Ministry of Medium Machine Build- ing (MSM), have borne the main weight of the basic nuclear research effort. The Insti- tute of Atomic Energy of the Academy of Sci- ences in Moscow (formerly Laboratory II) is undoubtedly the leading institute in this field, and is presently a center for heavy-isotope sep- aration, reactor development, and controlled thermonuclear research. (See Annex A, Fig- ure 2.) 2. The Institute of Chemical Physics (ICP) in Moscow was, and probably still is, closely associated with the development of nuclear weapons. This association is not unexpected in view of this institute's long history of in- vestigations in the various phases of chemical explosives and chemical chain reactions. Sev- eral of its scientists have been directly con- nected with nuclear weapon developments. Moreover, according to repatriated German scientists, the responsibility for implosion sys- tems of nuclear weapons during the mid- 1940's was assigned to a committee made up of ICP personnel and headed by N. N. Seme- nov, the director of ICP. 3. The Physics Institute located in Obninsk, which is believed to be under the administra- tion of the State Committee of the USSR Council Of Ministers for the Utilization of Atomic Energy (ATOMKOMITET), is respon- sible for the development of fast breeder re- actors and a power reactor employing nuclear superheat. The institute has recently under- taken research which could lead to the devel- opment of an ion propulsion engine and pos- sibly a nuclear power source for space appli- cations. 4. The Leningrad Radium Institute of the Academy of Sciences is a leading institute for basic research pertaining to reactor fuel proc- essing and has contributed to,other important phases of the program, such as the measure- ment of neutron cross sections. 5. The Moscow Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Physics of the Academy of Sci- ences (previously called Laboratory III and the Thermotechnical Laboratory) has pio- neered the development of heavy water re- actors in the USSR and has obtained much of the fundamental nuclear physics data re- quired by the Soviet atomic energy program. B. The Moscow Metallurgical Institute imeni Baykov appears to be the center for the de- velopment of metals resistant to high tem- perature, while the development of ceramics and cermets for high temperature reactors is being conducted in Kiev at the Institute of Metallic Ceramics and Special Alloys of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. 7. The State Institute of Rare Metals (GIREDMET) in Moscow and the Moscow In- stitute of Non-ferrous Metals and Gold imeni Kalinin are active in the study of the metal- lurgy of thorium, beryllium, zirconium, nio- bium, molybdenum and other non-ferrous metals necessary to the atomic energy pro- gram. Recently an affiliate of the latter in- stitute has been established at Krasnoyarsk where it appears to be conducting the same type of research, but probably with more em- phasis on the classified aspects of the Soviet atomic energy effort. CTED DATA TS 117700 pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 46 "ITTP�S-Lf-e-R-E-12- 8. The Joint Institute of Nuclear Research at Dubna is partially manned and financed by Satellite countries and Communist China. Though it is concerned primarily with basic research in high-energy nuclear physics, a fast pulsed reactor ("Merry-go-round") , which could be important to future atomic energy programs, was put into operation in its Laboratory of Neutron Physics in June 1960. 9. Besides these institutes, the USSR Acad- emy of Sciences and its affiliates operate a vast network of research institutes and labora- tories which are engaged in the broad field of science and technology. At these institutes, such as the Tomsk Polytechnical Institute TS 117700 and Kharkov ,Physico-Technical (see annex A Figure 1) , some basic research pertain- ing to nuclear energy is conducted, generally in a specialized field. 10. The leading educational institutes under the Ministry of Education perform contract research for ATOMKOMITET and the MSM and are used to train the technicians for the operation of such installations as atomic pow- er stations. The development of these large research and training centers are now be- ginning to strengthen the Soviet capability in the field of atomic energy. (See Annex A Fig- ure 2.) TOP RICTED DATA 35331.20 Approved Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 Approved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104 (see annex pertain- 1, generally utes under rn contract 1 the MS1VI ans for the tomic pow- these large .e now be- tpability in inex A Fig- 35331.20 KHARKOV LINEAR ACCELERATOR ACCELERATOR BUILDING U/C � \ ANNEX A Figure 1 CIANPIC DG-1457 (b)(3) pproved for Release: 2020/07/29 C06851104-: 20 40 80 I 20 160 180 -..-/ / 1 /./ ..,-,- \n6,4-4, .,-",2,-,' \ .__. ''. ,----k_.� / -J---ci.�...�,,, \ 76-AA A�A.,,,- . ... v...., \ 2/ ,�-k.�,_ �-�-, f/g!, - \ L' COC-V- ra-'-i- \ ,_---�'-----�1'01,,,, \ C ' r; 7. � il 5'�-%. %/' - ' \ ' " '-d� 'e:C? 5- '; .---,'.. _...,..--- - -\ ,� `----,/-'``, . '''. ��,%0 I. ?, �� . . .., ''.\ % ,,,---- S 1%; ,o ,-,/,---- ',...,�., ----:>�-',�,-..,-,,,,,.._ � . � � ..,...0 :t - -,%3 , -,\ � '''.--. ' , \------- - - ,V.-- / 7,1s z ZEtIVA , \?.,, .e. ,,INK! .::"4". \ ,/, , 3 �0"..' --/ ------) * 4 joi , ...,.,:r .,;_P r-'-'Z .. ' V:�:�:. .* r - / - - --,,,,' ,__------ , I \ , - -"T;) ??:" ; 1.' , 1 r / v , c.--. � -7,-"--k, \''..:k.::.:':'.. / .. 4Ib � Orel .z-' r ,5 /' / c.----, �i . / 1 / - ..,--- \ ilt� �-i_. � e, -70 r _ /, .,. "Poi, "2" ''.1 \ V-- ,-- ' ''- - *----:* ..' i t / c�-*-"------' ^ .,-5:-,, ( I ' \ ��-') ,_,,,, 2 10 ,_1, / '.9.� C I \ ....,,;': .".. of'. I. ,, it6,00 a / iip. ...co Az., � 0 II Oar � � & III. ,< 0 ,_:,�,"' --.. ( 1-- r: fl -4,, 0- ' Dudinka' 1 ' \ ) "---'i 'o I ' 6 i'''',.-1,6-7_,," ') / , � .1` it 01 9 0 61.Sg.' 7-'�/ A 4.0l rim [ - -i - - -A�, ,A�A!.- ., . N. - - " ) _?\ :::, 1��� V" 1 9 �-' \ _.�-i, -�-�/ ^, � 49 '1'0,;' N-'-- 6-.ki Il 'ft% .�l ''''. �Ss4--'-' I P . -, 4,0 efr I/' 1 \ .,,, ''' , ,----' ^. cil .410 V'S.� ''''� 1'6, J;k,),� re' 4 i'.41 (,_ z 40 � � & cl."0* c, \ ,, � 47 .,--__L\ke,, 16 a .9 : � _ _ , 4.0_, \ op.s4:2,6-.-\,,�,, Ira 4-, 'Is, k4, -- k----- .,,s�, � .,, 941%.4 l, �� \__----.- lbee KiRAsi.oy < ----,*-- I, i 6.. --', \o''''''' '-' ''65). \ K-'''', , ,...� , i''' � _ , ci.--c-- ,r-) . /- r ,, , :-.,- / '',1' �\'� V's kt�1 ,O. ,, - \ ARsK , " - ' \ O � ''."-- he i'l \,,'--,-,* ,41y1 �,t' - '''s, .1,1. ,14- ) / '-sioNov ',... , L S' ,-..,-.' � 7 / e',/,, 18IPSK \ ' , ,'"' (.______ -S.,,,/.../ \ ". ,, ( ' t ', �,...f ' � \. ( VPc''� fr., -,i.f7......7.77,.,,;\ _ 6, ,,, - - ...�::::::4,.. ---, ./ ,...4 `----'-',,���_,-;� i \'-:�:;:'"' � � .... ' ::.::'��� -- .4 ���Te-II'7'.1::::':':'' ' /1 to* �log 0 ut..AN - \ , .. Siy /. ,. " 's, ke/y ,. --.....,,..._ r r?...-------' , .... ,,- Boundaries ,sk . by the U.S. Government. /---,- recognized : - 1 80 100 120 I . USSR AP* Present � Future MAJOR I,. Io* � NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTERS� 0 250 500 1000 1500 2000 Statute Mlles 0 250 500 1000 1500 2000 - ---,.-- - Railroad (selected) . ,..... ,.-. Kilometers UNCLASSIFIED 35327 8-61 .V0[1.99900 6Z/LO/OZOZ :aseaia JOI penaidd\of