TWO ARTICLES ON CHERNOBYL (2 MAY 1986 NID)

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06862559
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: April 23, 2025
• Document Release Date: March 25, 2025
• Case Number: F-2016-02406
• Publication Date: May 2, 1986

Approved for Release: 2025/03/17 C06862559
A
Director of
Central
Intelligence
To cret
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National Intelligence Daily
Friday
2 May 1986
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2 May 1988
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Contents
USSR: Playing Down the Nuclear Disaster
Libya: Domestic Malaise
1
2
El Salvador: Guerrillas Under Pressure
South Korea: Chun Calls for Dialogue
6
7
Notes
USSR: May Day Celebrations
South Africa: Successful Strike
Thailand-US: Next Moves in Rice Dispute
Argentina: Presidential Decree on Military Trials
Nonaligned Movement: Aftermath of New Delhi Meeting
India-Sri Lanka: New Moves by Jayewardene
EC: Agreement To Freeze Farm Prices
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
In Brief
13
Special Analysis
Europe: Reaction to Chernobyl
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USSR: Playing Down the Nuclear Disaster
Soviet television is reporting extensively on the lack of
contamination in the Kiev region�some 60 miles (95 kilometers)
from the reactor�where only minimal fallout probably has
occurred.
Coverage of the May Day celebrations in Kiev projected an
appearance of normalcy, with Politburo member Shcherbitskiy
presiding over the festivities. Meanwhile, the Soviets claim to have
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extinguished the fire
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Moscow is sticking to its story that only two are dead and (b)(3)
197 injured-18 seriously. Although the Soviets claim there are no
serious radiation injuries, they have accepted assistance from a US
expert in bone marrow transplants. The expert is traveling to the
USSR today. Bone marrow transplants are the last r ' treating
persons who have received lethal doses of radiation. (b)(3)
Comment: A cutoff of Western television links for six days beginning
30 April presumably is an attempt to control the story and to stem the
mounting tide of adverse reaction in Europe. At present there is
probably no short-term health hazard to persons beyond 25 to
30 miles from Chernobyl, and the release of radioactive material has
decreased.
The accident apparently was triggered by a loss of power followed by
a loss of coolant to the reactor. The event probably occurred over a
period of several hours, thus minimizing the immediate loss of life.
Secret
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Special Analysis
EUROPE: Reaction to Chernobyl
The Soviet Union's refusal to provide information on the
Chernobyl accident has undercut General Secretary Gorbachev's
campaign to improve the Soviets' appearance in both Western
and Eastern Europe. The accident will also revive West European
antinuclear movements and may cause further economic
hardships in Eastern Europe.
All of the West European governments are clearly troubled and
angered by the Soviets' behavior. Attitudes almost certainly will
harden toward General Secretary Gorbachev, who has up to now had
some credibility in Western Europe. The Scandinavian countries have
been most directly affected, and their reactions the most severe.
Sweden's energy minister condemned Soviet secretiveness, and
Sweden and Denmark have banned the import of foodstuffs from the
USSR and Eastern Europe.
Public statements by West European governments, however, may be
limited by a reluctance to overplay the dangers of radioactivity, given
their own dependence on nuclear energy and because immediate
danger from Chernobyl is minimal. France and Belgium each get
almost two-thirds of their electricity from nuclear power, West
Germany almost one-third.
Government responses have been measured, but public and press
reaction throughout Western Europe has been more visceral. There is
no evidence of panic, but drug stores in northern Europe report a run
on iodine, believed to impede the absorption of some radiation. The
US Embassy in Copenhagen reports that demonstrations are
expected at the Soviet Embassy. They are likely to be repeated
elsewhere.
This incident is likely to revive antinuclear and ecological movements.
Peace movements in the UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands may
reemerge, and West Germany's Greens may reap benefits in coming
elections.
There may be increased public pressure, which leftist parties will echo
for progress on arms control. More conservative groups, however, will
note the Soviet's lack of candor over Chernobyl and will take a
dimmer view of verification proposals.
continued
15 2 May 1986
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Implication for Eastern Europe
The Chernobyl accident and Moscow's response almost certainly will
fan anti-Soviet and antinuclear sentiments among East Europeans.
Popular cynicism about the willingness of the authorities to tell the full
truth and the lack of hard information from the Soviets will undermine
efforts by East European governments to reassure their citizens.
Unofficial environmental movements will use the accident to point out
the dangers of nuclear energy, but they will not be able to undo their
governments' commitment to nuclear power. In Yugoslavia, the
accident will provide ammunition to the growing antinuclear
movement and diminish Soviet chances of winning the $2.5 billion
contract for a nuclear power plant.
Fears of radioactive contamination of farm products in Eastern
Europe are prompting some Western trading partners to consider
bans on agricultural imports from the region. The embargo by
Sweden and Denmark alone will have little impact, a ban by a number
of West European countries would upset the region's trade balances
and precarious hard currency positions. East European countries�
particularly Poland, Hungary, and Yugoslavia�depend on
agricultural products for roughly a tenth of total exports to the
developed West, $2.5 billion in 1984. The risk to hard currency
exports probably has contributed to Eastern Europe's efforts to play
down the Chernobyl accident.
The disaster could also affect the East European economies
significantly in domestic food production, either through
contamination that forces increased hard currency imports or if
losses to Soviet agriculture lead Moscow to pressure Eastern Europe
harder to supply agricultural products. East European hopes for
increased hard currency earnings from tourism seem doomed, and
the accident casts doubt on the region's plans to boost the use of
nuclear power in the future.
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