SOUTH AFRICA- MOZAMBIQUE: COOPERATION AND COERCION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06862561
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: November 13, 2020
• Case Number: F-2018-01308
• Publication Date: February 26, 1988

Approved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06862561
� Director of
Central
Intelligence
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National Intelligence Daily
Friday
26 February 1988
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Contents
Special Analysis
South Africa-Mozambique: Cooperation and Coercion 14
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Special Analysis
SOUTH AFRICA- Cooperation and Coercion
MOZAMBIQUE:
Pretoria and Maputo are increasing contacts on a broad range of
security and economic issues as pragmatic interests overshadow
deep-seated differences. Pretoria continues to combine military
pressure and economic benefits to induce Maputo to restrain the
African National Congress. Maputo has largely satisfied
Pretoria's security concerns for now, but mutual distrust almost
cart:tints, will remnliCate further improvements In relations.
A recently revitalized liaison commission�first established under
a 1984 nonaggression pact to discuss security and other issues�met
last month for only the second time after a two-year hiatus. Lower
level bilateral contacts through the South African trade office in
Maputo have recently increased sharply, and joint working arouos
have been established on specific economic issues.
Pretoria's Military Pressure...
South African security officials are satisfied with Maputo's efforts to
keep a tight rein on the ANC They
are unhappy, however, with Maputo's anti-South African rhetoric and
believe constant pressure is needed to make sure President Chissano
continues to restrict ANC activity in Mozambique. Pretoria frequently
warns Maputo to clamp down on the ANC and occasionally takes
direct action against suspected ANC targets, such as the attack last
May on four presumed ANC residences in Maputo
South Africa provides modest, but important, support to RENAMO
insuroents�albeit at lower levels than before the 1984 pact
South African military officials also see RENAMO as a cost-effective
means of perpetuating Pretoria's dominance by disrupting the
regional transportation routes that run through Mozambique.
continued
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... and Economic Rewards
The South African Foreign Ministry is rewarding Maputo by promoting
modest economic assistance programs that also reinforce South
African leverage and increase Mozambican dependence. Pretoria is
giving Maputo a $3 million low-interest loan and technical assistance
to improve the port at Maputo�the closest harbor to South Africa's
industrial heartland�providing food aid, and negotiating a new work
permit system for the more than 70,000 Mozambican migrant workers
in South Africa who pump critical foreign currency into Maputo's
economy.
RENAMO attacks on economic targets in Mozambique has
complicated Pretoria's dual-track approach. South African repair
crews recently rebuilt a bridge destroyed by RENAMO on the railroad
from South Africa to Maputo that had delayed export of thousands of
tons of South African goods. RENAMO is the major stumblingblock to
reopening the Cabora Basso Hydroelectric Complex in northern
Mozambique, and Pretoria has agreed to provide logistic support to a
Mozambican battalion that will guard repair crews working on the
rehabilitation of the transmission pylonsl
Response From Maputo
Chissano appears resigned to at least some cooperation with Pretoria
to try to discourage South African support for RENAMO and to enlist
desperately needed help in reviving the Mozambican economy. He
has pragmatically expanded channels of communication, refused to
impose economic sanctions, and reduced some of the harsh rhetoric.
Outlook
Debate probably will intensify between South African military and
Foreign Ministry officials over which track should be emphasized.
Chissano's apparent willingness to cooperate may give added
leverage to officials who favor playing down aid to RENAMO, but
Pretoria's policy will depend primarily on Maputo's ability to
cooperate on South African terms. Maputo's conviction that Pretoria
provides significant support to RENAMO as well as Chissano's need
to maintain his standing in black Africa ensure that some anti-South
African rhetoric and contacts with ANC officials will continue
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