ISRAEL -IRAQ: IMPACT OF ISRAELI ATTACK

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06948886
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: July 13, 2023
• Document Release Date: August 31, 2022
• Case Number: F-2021-01671
• Publication Date: June 9, 1981

Approved for Release: 2022/07/14 C06948886
Director of
Central
Intelligence
Tuesday
9 June 1.981
9 June 1981
COY. 229
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Contents
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Israel-Iraq: Impact of Israeli Attack 1
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�T-ep�Svcret--
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ISRAEL-IRAQ: Impact of Israeli Attack
The Israeli airstrike on the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center
in Iraq will set back Baghdad's nuclear program for at least two
years, even if rebuilding begins immediately and foreign technicians
remain in the country. (b)(3)
The larger of Iraq's two French-built reactors was
heavily damaged
Although France has condemned the raid, President
Mitterrand has criticized French-Iraqi nuclear coopera-
tion in the past and probably will resist requests to
rebuild identical nuclear facilities.
Prime Minister Begin probably views the raid as a
major strategic and domestid success. Israeli govern-
ments have long regarded Iraq's nuclear program as one
of its most serious long-term threats
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The action has been widely
applauded in Israel and will boost Begin's standing in (W(1)
the polls as he heads into the final stretch toward the (b)(3)
30 June national election.
Iraqi Options
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Iraqi leaders are playing 'down the attack, presumably
to minimize their own political embarrassment. Baghdad,
however, has called for a UN Security Council meeting.
Iraq has no easy options for military retaliation,
its surface-to-surface missiles lacking the range to
reach Israel from Iraq. MIG-23 fighter aircraft and
TU-22 bombers could reach Israel from Iraqi airfields,
but Baghdad will be reluctant to risk these aircraft
against Israeli air defenses so long as the war with
Iran continues.
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Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
Turkey
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BEIRUT
Mediterranean
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Tel Aviv-Yelp
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U.S.S.R.
Syria \
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Tuwaitha Nude
Research Cente
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Saudi Arabia
Kaalt
0
linomfam 300 � (NDJWAIT
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The Iraqis probably will increase support for ter-
rorism against Israeli targets, perhaps lend more support
to Syria on the Lebanese issue, and urge tougher Arab
diplomatic and economic action against Israel and possi-
bly the US. They will suspect the US of collusion and may
move to reverse the recent thaw in US-Iraqi relations.
Arab Reaction
Arab suspicions of US complicity also will complicate
US relations with Saudi Arabia and US-Saudi efforts to
calm the missile crisis. Damascus almost certainly be-
lieves the US approved the airstrike in advance, and the
Syrians will be less receptive to US mediation efforts
involving Lebanon.
President Assad may well be less forthcoming with
Ambassador Habib, preferring instead to deal only with
Saudi negotiators. Damascus also may seek to improve
its strained ties with Iraq.
The Arab League yesterday called for an urgent meet-
ing in Baghdad this week to discuss the crisis. Radical
Arabs may urge use of the oil weapon, but we doubt the
Saudis will sanction any precipitous reaction.
Egypt denounced the raid as a threat to the Middle
East peace process. President Sadat probably fears the
attack will undercut Egypt's efforts to mend fences with
the other Arabs, including Iraq, particularly since the
raid came soon after his meeting with Begin.
Soviet Commentary
The Soviets, who also condemned the raid, are
describing the attack as only the latest example of
US-Israeli collusion against the Arabs. A TASS report
yesterday stated that Israel had informed the US of the
attack on Sunday.
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Moscow will seek to use the raid to improve its ties
with Baghdad. If the Iraqis show interest in closer re-
lations, the Soviets may eventually provide them more
advanced military equipment. (b)(3)
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