SOUTH AFRICA: ARMAMENTS INDUSTRY

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November 1, 1983
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Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Directorate of Intelligence South Africa: Armaments Industr A Research Paper ALA 83-10160C SC 00489183 November 1983 Copy 299 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Warning Notice Intelligence Sources or Methods Involved (WNINTEL) National Security Unauthorized Disclosure Information Subject to Criminal Sanctions Dissemination Control Abbreviations NOFORN (NF) Not releasable to foreign nationals NOCONTRACT (NC) PROPIN (PR) ORCON (OC) REL... Not releasable to contractors or contractor/consultants Caution�proprietary information involved Dissemination and extraction of information controlled by originator This information has been authorized for release to... FGI WN Foreign government information WNINTEL�Intelligence sources or methodajiw Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Directorate of Intelligence South Africa: Armaments Industry A Research Paper This paper was prepared by the Office of African and Latin American Analysis, with contributions from It was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Africa Division, ALA (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 lop eut e ALA 83-10160C SC 00489183 November 1983 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) Key Judgments Information available .0 as of 15 September 1983 was used in this report. . � � South Africa: Armaments Industry (b)(3) Prompted by the perception of a growing military threat and international isolation, South Africa over the past 20 years has given ever higher priority to meeting the equipment needs of its armed forces. It has developed the largest arms industry in Africa, and the government-controlled Arma- ments Corporation of South Africa (Armscor) has become one of the country's largest industrial conglomerates, with assets estimated at $1.2 billion. (b)(3) Although Pretoria's goal is to achieve self-sufficiency in arms production, Armscor acquires some military equipment and considerable expertise from abroad. Armscor's reliance on foreign acquisitions is most pro- nounced in fields that involve high technology. To evade the UN arms embargo, the South Africans make use of false end-user certificates and employ middlemen or front companies to make military purchases abroad. Armscor currently meets the bulk of the military's requirements for ground force equipment out of domestic production. The domestic arms industry produces such materiel as artillery and rockets, armored vehicles, t communications equipment, mines, and small arms and ammunition The production of air and naval equipment remains a problem area for Armscor, however. Although Armscor recently announced plans to begin production of helicopters, Pretoria still faces problems in replacing its aging fleet of fighters, bombers, and reconnaissance aircraft. While South Africa is producing missile-equipped patrol boats, it does not yet have the canacitv to achieve its stated goal of producing submarines and corvettes. In addition, South Africa's production of some ground weapons systems and higher technology items is inadequate to quickly replenish or build up inventories. While South Africa has not encountered many problems in supplying equipment for the counterinsurgency in Namibia, we believe that it would be unable to fight a protracted conventional war with the current level of arms production. This same weakness, in our view, would also prevent Pretoria from becoming a reliable arms supplier. Armscor's approach to arms production has essentially been one of modifying available foreign technology to fit South Africa's needs. Only in a few instances has Armscor developed entirely new systems. Moreover, at each stage of development, Armscor has depended on foreig n and engineers, equipment, or technology to achieve its goals. (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(3) iii Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 -tap-Seefot ALA 83-10160C SC 00489183 November 1983 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Barring a major change in the regional military equation or in South Africa's internal security situation, we believe that Armscor will continue to meet most of the needs of South Africa's armed forces through its two- pronged strategy of foreign acquisitions and domestic production. Al- though technology requirements will increase steadily, the flexibility the industry has shown in developing and adapting weapons probably will continue to work to South Africa's favor. We believe that, as in the past when foreign technology, personnel, or materiel were needed, South Africa will continue to acquire these assets despite its pariah status and interna- tional embargoes. A major escalation of hostilities between South Africa and its Communist-backed neighbors, the breakdown of internal security, or a combination of external and internal security threats could, however, result in armaments requirements significantly in excess of Armscor's capabilities Thus far, South Africa's ability to produce arms has allowed it to pursue aggressive military policies without being pinched by dependency on foreign suppliers of weapons. Expected improvements in weapons produc- tion will help to reinforce South Africa's sense of its ability to control the southern African region. We expect this will make Pretoria more resistant to US and Western pressures to modify both its domestic and regional policies. A serious dilemma for the United States could result from major hostilities between South Africa and its Communist-backed neighbors any time over the next few years, particularly in the event of increased Cuban and Soviet involvement. In such circumstances, Pretoria would seek to increase its covert purchases of Western military materiel and might also request direct US and Western military aid. lop secret SC 00489183 iv Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) Contents Contents Page Key Judgments iii Introduction 1 Structure and Functions of the Armaments Industry 1 Organization 1 Funding 2 Personnel 3 Requirements and R&D 4 Procurement 4 Production by Weapons Type 6 Ground Systems 6 Naval Systems 13 Air Systems 15 Missile Systems 18 Other Materiel 20 The Sum of the Parts 21 Implications for the United States 22 (b)(1) V Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 TUF-Siermt� SC 00489/83 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 UN Arms Embargo Resolutions Against South Africa (b)(3) (b)(3) 1963 Security Council urges all nations to stop the sale of arms, ammunition, military vehicles, and equipmenjiojnarnLfacture armaments to South Africa. 1970 General Assembly and Security Council pass resolutions strengthening the voluntary arms embargo by expanding the definition of pro- hibited items to include spare parts, licensing agreements. and training of SADF personnel. 1977 (b)(3) (b)(1) Security Council adopts Resolution 418, making the heretofore voluntary arms em- bargo against South Africa mandatory UN resolutions calling for the embargo of arms sales to South Africa have not had the intended effect of totally stopping the arms flow to South Africa. It was generally agreed at the time that the 1977 resolution calling for a mandatory embargo came too late to have an impact on South Africa's ground forces and internal security units. It was believed, however, that the embargo could nega- tively affect South Africa's arms production capabili- ties in high technology areas, such as aircraft, where the country was highly dependent on foreign assist- ance and supplies (b)(3) -rop-serret- SC 00489183 vi Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) South South Africa: Armaments Industry Introduction In the 1960s, as a result of South Africa's growing international isolation and the 1963 UN voluntary arms embargo, South Africa made a commitment to become self-sufficient in the production of arma- ments. The stated goal of the country's budding armaments industry then was the manufacture of weapons needed for internal security. The urgency for domestic arms production was renewed in the 1970s after the United Nations imposed a mandatory arms embargo, and developments in southern Africa changed Pretoria's perception of the regional threat. With the demise of the Portuguese empire and the emergent crisis in Rhodesia, South Africa was con- fronted with the replacement of friendly, white-con- trolled governments in neighboring states by leftist black regimes and a dramatic rise in Communist presence in the region. During the decade of the 1970s, the task of the arms industry expanded to the production of weapons needed for defense against external threats. In recent years the sophistication of the industry has increased, with emphasis on the r. development of electronics nd advanced weapons systems. This paper reviews the development and production capabilities of the South African armaments industry and assesses Pretoria's claim that the goal of self- sufficiency has largely been met. Structure and Functions of the Armaments Industry Organization Aside from a brief effort during World War II, South Africa did not establish an arms production industry until after the Afrikaner National Party came into power in 1948. In 1951 the government organized the Defense Production Office, which a year later opened a small arms and ammunition plant. By the early 1960s the name of the organization was changed to 1 the Armaments Board and its responsibilities expand- ed to include the acquisition of foreign equipment and licenses to produce rifles and armored vehicles. It also set up plants for the production of military high explosives and propellants In 1968 the armaments industry was reorganized. Legislation of that year created the Armaments Development and Production Corporation of South Africa, Ltd. (Armscor). The government provided Armscor with initial capital of R100 million ($140 million) and gave it control over existing armaments plants.' The Armaments Board retained responsibility for purchasing�either abroad or from private South African firms�eouinment that cou d not be produced by Armscor The present organization of the armaments industry dates to 1977, when the Armaments Board and Armscor were merged to become the Armaments Corporation of South Africa, Ltd., known�like its predecessor�as Armscor The new Armscor was given responsibility for research, devel- opment, production, and testing of armaments re- quired by the South African Defense Force (SADF) and the police. It was also tasked with purchasing abroad or manufacturing by itself equipment which, because of economic, technical, or security consider- ations, could not be produced by the private sector in South Africa. In line with this charter, Armscor's policies are set and executed by a Board of Directors whose members are drawn from the military (the Chief of the SADF), the government (the Director General of Finance), private industry acadeniia, and Armscor's senior managers ' All currency conversions in this paper are at the then prevailing exchange rates between the South African rand and the US dollar unless otherwise indicated. (The current rate is R1.00 = $.90.) up ta c Sc 00489/83 (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Figure 1 South African Spending for Defense and Arms Procurement Defense Spending Percent of national budget 20 I 1 I 1 I 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 ! 0 1975 76 77 78 79 80 81 300906 (A03576) 10-83 ARMSCOR/SDA Allocations Percent of defense budget 80 70 60 50 40 30 Total SDA 20 10 ARMSCOR 0 1975 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 Funding From its modest beginnings, Armscor has become one of the largest industrial conglomerates in South Afri- ca, with assets estimated at R1.3 billion ($1.2 billion according to the 1982 defense white paper. Armscor is funded directly through the defense bud- get, which has accounted for 10 to 20 percent of total national expenditures since 1975, when measured in constant 1975 US dollars (see table 2). Within the defense budget, allocations for the production and procurement of armaments are carried under "Arms- cor" and a "Special Defense Account (SDA)." Using South African budget documents, we estimate that all the funds for procurement come from the SDA and those for operations and maintenance from the Arms- cor account. Together, SDA and Armscor allocations have made up between 60 and 70 percent of the defense budget since 1975 (see figure 1). In recent years Armscor also has borrowed small amounts of funds in the domestic capital market (b)(1) Tvp-Secrgt SC 00489/83 We estimate that since 1975 allocations for Armscor and the SDA have grown at an average real rate of about 2 percent annually, although growth rates have fluctuated widely from year to year. These fluctua- tions have been due in part to cancellations of foreign contracts because of the 1977 mandatory UN embar- go, a slowdown in the establishment of new subsidiar- ies and changes i domestic production schedules. 2 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 "T�trSecret (b)(3) Table 2 Armscor Budget 1975-82 a Million 1975 US $ 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Armscor Current expenditure b 41 56 53 28 33 32 35 44 Transfer payments b 32 32 79 122 85 29 50 51 Capital expenditure b NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Subtotal 73 88 132 150 118 61 86 95 SDA 817 1,089 1,097 776 909 851 1,099 896 Total, Armscor/SDA 890 1,177 1,229 926 1,027 912 1,185 991 Total defense budget 1,329 1,639 1,813 1,510 1,590 1,520 1,878 1,567 Total budget 9,543 9,913 9,923 10,008 9,982 10,234 10,978 NA a The source of the budget figures is the yearly "Estimate of the Expenditure To Be Defrayed From the Revenue Account" as presented to Parliament. The revenue account is financed by taxes and includes all the main current expenditures for government operations. b As defined in official South African budget documents, current expenditure is the recurrent expenditure of departments on goods and services not intended for the establishment or acquisition of capital assets�that is, operating costs, including research. Transfer payments refers to amounts which will not be spent on goods and services by the department on whose budget they appear, but will be paid to other bodies or persons�that is, grants, financial assistance, loans, and pensions. Capital expenditure includes ex- penditures on goods and services that lead to capital formation or the establishment or acquisition of fixed capital assets such as land, buildings, and machinery. Personnel According to the South African press, in 1982 nearly 105,000 people were employed in weapons production, of whom 80,000 worked for some 700 private firms as Armscor's contractors. Armscor itself has boasted of doubling its own personnel from 12,000 to 24,000 in the last 10 years. The total number of workers in arms production constitutes 7 percent of the labor force of 1.5 million employed in the manufacturing sector c According to official documents, in 1975 all the funds for procurement were transferred from the Armscor account to the Special Defense Account (SDA). SDA is described as a holding account where unspent funds�due to discrepancies between lead- times and yearly appropriations�are retained and carried over to the following fiscal year. According to open sources, however, SDA allocations finance "special operations" as determined by the Minister of Defense. The funds have to be approved by the Minister of Finance, but the Minister of Defense determines how to allocate them without being accountable to anyone outside the Ministry. engineers. (b)(1) (b)(3) Armscor continues to make efforts to reduce this dependence; in 1981 it had about 6,000 trainees and apprentices, according to South African press reports. The composition of the work force has also changed over time. Initially, lacking qualified personnel, Armscor had to rely on foreign technicians and 3 rov-Seeret SC 00489183 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) (b)(3) Gunrunning to South Africa Despite official denials, South Africa continues to obtain foreign arms, even from Communist countries. A few examples demonstrate how South African ingenuity and international connections have foiled the UN arms embargo West European press reports during the first half of 1983 detailed the case of a Danish shipping firm that arranged 19 illegal shipments of arms from several West and East European ports to South Africa between 1978 and 1980. South African nationals based in Liberia and the South African Embassy in Paris dealt with the Danes in arranging the transpor- tation, using false end-user certificates. Armscor used an international "businessman" and a front company with a London address to handle a part of the transaction that involved the acquisition of Bulgarian arms for Jonas Savimbi's guerrillas in Angola. Arms- cor officials denied knowledge of the operation, but the Danes involved were convicted o arms smuggling by the Danish Government. In early 1983, Danish press accounts described an attempt to send an undetermined number of pistols to South Africa aboard civilian aircraft. The shipment, which allegedly originated in Austria and was clearly marked "pistols," was intercepted at the airport in Copenhagen. Both sender and receiver denied any knowledge of the weapons, insisting they were trading rotor blades for a furniture machine. Two earlier incidents of gunrunning this year through Copenha- gen were traced to a sender in Italy. Requirements and R&D The SADF and Armscor work closely in establishing requirements for weapons and their production. The SADF draws up the requirements and Armscor writes the technical specifications. The government's De- fense Planning Committee then reconciles weapons requirements with military policy and technical and financial capability. According to the US defense attache, the Planning Committee includes the Chief of Staff and several ranking officers of the SADF and Armscor's two top managers. Armscor relies princi- pally on organizations such as the Council for Scien- tific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 2 and South African universities for assistance on research and (b)(3) development on weapons and components The US Embassy in Pretoria describes the CSIR as a statutory body controlled by the government. It performs civilian scientific, industrial, and engineering resear-h_as well as covert defense- related research and development up eeret sc 00489/83 4 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 -frm-See.ret Figure 2 South Africa's Procurement System Ministry of Defense South African Defense Force requirements ARMSCOR contracts contracts Research contracts Subsidiaries contracts Private sector establishments components services South African Defense Force acceptance and storage 300905 1043 Table 3 Armscor Subsidiaries Name Product Name Product Atlas Aircraft Cor- Aircraft production and maintenance Somchem Rockets, propellants, and explosives poration Swartklip Grenades and pyrotechnics munitions Eloptro Electro-optical devices, night vision equip- ment Telcast High-technology castings for Atlas Air- craft Corporation Kentron Missiles, rockets, and guided weapons Service subsidiaries Lyttleton Engineer- ing Works (LEW) Small arms and artillery Nimrod Promotions Export Bonaero Park Housing Musgrave Manufac- turers and Distribu- Small arms and ammunition Infoplan Computer support Krygmed Medical services tors Naschem Mines, bombs, and large caliber ammunition Kryspen Pension plan Pretoria Metal Small arms ammunition Pressings, Ltd., (PMP) 5 SC 00489/83 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) (b)(3) Production by Weapons Type Because of Armscor, South Africa has the largest weapons production capability in Africa and the SADF is the best equipped force south of the Sahara. Armscor achieved this, as stated earlier, largely by acquiring and modifying foreign systems to fit the country's own needs. Only a few types of equipment have been completely designed and built in South Africa. With some exceptions, Armscor's�products do not exhibit state-of-the-art technology (see figure 3). Ground Systems South Africa has made the greatest strides toward self-sufficiency in the manufacture of ground weap- ons. Armscor now produces a variety of small arms and ammunition, various types of armored vehicles and several large-caliber artillery systems Ttip-Seeret- SC 00489/83 Small Arms and Ammunition. Armscor produces several mod- els of handguns, rifles, machineguns, and ammuni- tion, although not in sufficient quantities. Pretoria's first attempt at producing rifles was in the early 1960s when manufacturing began�under license�of Bel- gian 7.62-mm FAL rifles. The 5.56-mm assault rifle and light machinegun currently in production are copies of the Israeli Galil. In addition, Armscor produces rifle grenades and grenade launchers that, are also copies of foreign models (see figure 4). Although Armscor is taking steps to increase output, its limited capacity for the production of certain weapons leaves gaps that are met by purchases from abroad. 6 (b)(3) (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 (b)(3) Figure 3 Evolution of ARMSCOR Plants and Products Year operational � 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Armored vehicles Sandock-Austral � Eland � Ratel IFV Benoni � Olifant � Rate! ALSV Missiles and propellants MDR � Somchem � Cactus � Kentron � Whiplash Skorpion � Kukri Aircraft e Atlas 40 Impala e Kudu/AM-3/ Falcon! Ranger � Mirage F-I � Telcast Small arms and ammunition � PMP � Musgraves � Naschem � Swartklip Artillery e LEW � 127-mm MRL � G-5 Computer support elnfoplan Electro-optics � Eloptro Naval craft Durban shipyard � Minister-class patrol boat � Namacurra-class harbor patrol boat � ARMSCOR subsidiary ARMSCOR contractor � Weapon system (b)(3) 300907 10-83 7 trip�Seaga Sc 00489/83 pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Th- (b)(3) Figure 4. South African infan- trymen equipped with domesti- cally vroduced rifles and mor- tars. Artillery. South Africa manufactures few artillery systems, although it recently developed and began to produce the towed and self-propelled versions of a long-range, 155-mm howitzer�the G-5 and G-6, respectively (see figure 5) the impetus to develop the G-5 came during South Africa's intervention in the Angolan civil war in 1975, when artillery used by the SADF was unable to match the range of Soviet artillery used by the (b)(3) Panorama � Cuban and Angolan forces. Armscor relied on assist- ance for the design and the testing of the gun as well as for the development of the extended-range, full-bore ammunition which allows for a two-thirds increase in range from 24 km to 40 km) 9 SC 00489/83 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 �Thr-Seaset Figure 5. Top: A South Afri- can�produced Samil artillery prime mover towing the G-5, the 155-mm howitzer into posi- tion. Bottom: The G-6, the self- propelled version of the South African�nr"du'd 1"-7m howitzer Armscor also developed a 127-mm multiple rocket launcher after South Africa's incursion into Angola in 1975 (see figure 6). The system�which reached pro- duction in 1980�is patterned on the Soviet BM-21 rocket launcher, which the South Africans encoun- tered in Angola. Armscor also produces mortar rounds based on British designs a (b)(3) 81-mm mortars of French design. (b)(3) (b)(1) International Defense Review (0 Tanks. Armscor's tank production has consisted most- ly of modifying and upgrading British Centurions, the upgraded Centurion� dubbed the Olifant�will satisfy South Africa's re- quirements until the 1990s, when Armscor hopes to have an indigenous replacement. �TairSeezet,_ 10 SC 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 -11nrSeciet� We believe that South Africa has the capability to produce the Olifant domestically. South Africa has produced diesel engines since 1978�although they are primarily for trucks and tractors�and transmis- (b)(1) sions since the mid-1970s. Almost any of the South (b)(3) African shipyards or heavy fabrication plants have the lis and turrets Light Armored Vehicles. Armored vehicles were the first major pieces of equipment to be produced in South Africa by private industry. In the early 1960s South Africa started assembling the Eland, a version of the French Panhard AML-245 reconnaissance Figure 7. The Olifant tank�the South African�ungraded and modified version of the British Centurion Figure 6. The 127-mm multiple rocket launcher produced by Armscor and designated the Valkiri International Defense Review 0 11 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 op secret SC 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Figure 8. One version of the Eland armored vehicle with a 90-mm gun vehicle, using imported machinery and components (see figure 8). By 1979, according to press reports, all parts for the Eland were produced domestically under license South Africa has relied entirely on domestic design and manufacture for all other armored vehicles. In 1976 the Rate! Infantry Fighting Vehicle was intro- duced by Armscor after about four years of develop- ment. The Ratel has become one of the most heavily used vehicles of the SADF (see figure 9). We estimate that Ratels are now produced at the rate of 100 to 150 a year. (b)(3) 117p�Seeret SC 00489/83 Panorama � In 1982 an armored logistic support vehicle that would allow mechanized infantry to operate for up to seven days and 1,000 km from their main logistic support system was introduced as a backup to the Ratel (see figure 10). South Africa has also modified its extensive fleet of SAMIL, all-terrain military trucks that originally were based on West German design and components. They have been converted into armored, mine-resistant vehicles and armored personnel carriers. Among these is the Buffel, intro- duced in 1973, which has seen extensive service in the counterinsurgency war iri Namibia and Angola (see figure 11). 12 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 \ Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Op Svt (b)(3) Figure 9. Two Versions of the South African-Designed and Manufactured Rate! Infantry Fighting Vehicle. Top: The Ra- te! 60 with a 60-mm mortar. Bottom: The Rate! 90 with a 90-mm gun International Defense Review 0 Naval Systems South Africa's private shipbuilding industry, which up until the early 1960s had concentrated on ship repair, has been unable so far to take the place of Pretoria's principal military ship suppliers, the United 13 Figure 10. The armored logis- tic support vehicle recently in- troduced by Armscor. International Defense Review Kingdom and France, after the arms embargo. Even though the South African Navy believes, according to its own accounts, that it has made a "remarkable achievement" in its shipbuilding program, the manu- facture of large ships and submarines�a stated goal�remains unattainable at the present time. (b)(3) (b)(3) Patrol Boats. Armscor is building the Minister- or MoD-class guided-missile patrol boat under an Israeli license (see figure 12). Domestic production started in 1977-78, and by September 1982 the fifth boat built in South Africa was launched. (b)(1) (b)(3) According to Jane's Fighting Ships, the South Afri- cans have also produced torpedo recovery vessels since 1969, the Namacurra-type harbor patrol vessel since at least 1981, and a large patrol craft that, according to the US defense attache, is a copy of the British Ford-class patrol boat (see figure 13). A South Afri- can Navy officer announced last April that Armscor is building a prototype of a miniaturized mine hunter which will require 'a low investment ' As used in this paper, "large ships" are frigates or corvette-size combatants T-op-Seeret- SC 00489183 (b)(3) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) Figure 11. Various Models of the Samil Trucks Made in South Africa. Top left: The Buffel armored personnel carrier. Top right: A mobile workshop. Right: A recovery vehicle. (b)(3) Large Ships. Since the mid-1970s, the Navy has repeatedly referred to a corvette building program that would provide it with the capability to extend the range of patrols beyond coastal waters Jane's Military Vehicles and Ground Support Equipment 1983 C under way and that the Navy expects to adhere to a timetable consistent with the need to replace the submarines in 10 to 12 years. the pro- gram is still in the planning stage and at least a decade away. According to US defense attache re- ports, the South Africans already have blueprints for the corvettes�delivered by France in anticipation of the South African purchase of such French ships� while British firms are believed to be providing the technology for the engines and the communication and electronics systems South Africa is also looking to replace the three Daphne-class submarines acquired from France in the early 1970s. Although as of 1982 no specific design had been approved by the Navy, the US defense attache has estimated, after talking with knowledge- able South African officers, that preliminary work is 011-7SELITI� SC 00489183 Even though the Navy believes it has the technology and materials and that skilled foreign workers could be recruited for the production of large ships, none of the shipyards in South Africa, in our view, has the specialized equipment and engineering facilities to construct modern submarines or craft larger than the Minister-class 14 (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 �Ton - Figure Figure 12. The Israeli-designed Minister-class guided-missile patrol boat built in South Africa under Israeli license Air Systems The establishment of an aircraft industry was one of South Africa's priorities as early as the 1960s. The industry was started with assistance from the French and Italians, who helped in the design and organiza- tion of an aircraft production plant and sold licenses to South Africa for the production of aircraft Fixed Wing Aircraft. In 1964 the Atlas Aircraft Corporation, an Armscor subsidiary, purchased a license from the Italian firm Aermacchi to produce Impala MK1 jet trainers. In 1974 Atlas began to assemble the Impala MK2 light ground attack air- craft, as production of the MK1 tapered off. Initially, both versions of the Impala were assembled from imported parts but later were almost totally manufac- tured in South Africa (see figure 14). Also in 1974, Atlas started assembling�under super- vision of French technicians�French Mirage multi- purpose fighter and attack aircraft from imported parts. This was part of a $480 million agreement signed in 1971 that allowed South Africa to urchase 15 Mirage Ills and assemble 48 F-1s only. 15 Figure 13. Other naval ships of South African manufacture are a torpedo recovery vessel (above) and the Namacurra- class harbor patrol craft (be- low) Jane's Fighting Ships 1982-83 � Other aircraft production in the 1970s included four propeller aircraft: C4M-Kudu, a light transport devel oped by Atlas based on an Aermacchi model; the RSA/200 Falcon jet transport assembled under Brit- ish license; and the AM-3 Bosbok and S.205 Ranger military utility planes, assembled under Italian li- censes (see figure 15) At present the only aircraft being produced are the Kudu and the Impala MK2. Armscor announced in August that production of the Impala will end in the near future. The South Africans have several projects under way at home and abroad to modify and improve their Mirage aircraft (b)(3) SC 00489/83 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Figure 14. Impala jet aircraft under production at the Atlas aircraft plant. (b)(3) Figure 15. The C4M Kudu, one of the two aircrciftsr produced by Atla (b)(3) �Thp�SeCza SC 00489183 Jones's Al! the World's Aircraft 1982-83 C 16 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Helicopters. All of the helicopters in the South African inventory are of foreign manufacture. Puma medium-size transport helicopters and Alouette III general purpose helicopters were purchased from France in 1970.1 \Armscor has not made public any details about the helicopter it plans to produce South Africa remains dependent on foreign supplies of technology, components, and spare parts for nearly all of its aircraft. Since the United Kingdom stopped supplying aircraft to South Africa in 1963 in accord- ance with the UN voluntary arms embargo, France stepped in to fill the gap. The French stopped supply- ing fighters and helicopters in 1978, when they decid- ed to abide by the mandatory UN embargo, although they continued to honor contracts for spare parts. Figure 16. Prototype of a South African�built remotely piloted vehicle. Among its potential missions are reconnaissance, surveillance and photographic survey. Janes's All the World's Aircraft 1982-83 0 Future Aircraft Systems. South Africa so far lacks the capability to produce high-performance aircraft to replace its fleet of Mirages. It also has a need for in-flight refueling tankers and various types of recon- naissance aircraft, including replacements for its ag- ing maritime surveillance and rescue aircraft. For the latter, Armscor has expressed a preference for US civilian aircraft that could be modified, Since the late 1970s, Israeli assistance to the aircraft industry has replaced that of France. One form of Israeli aid came to light in June 1983 when the Mozambicans shot down a reconnaissance drone re- ported to be of Israeli design.\ Overall, we believe that South Africa will probably concen- trate on domestic production of a fighter, This could be accomplished by modifying and upgrading its Mirages or by designing and build- ing an aircraft with foreign assistance. We expect that South Africa will emphasize production of helicopters to add mobility to its counterinsurgency forces Production of the drone may be in the hands of the private sector; according to Jane's All the World's Aircraft, a facili- ty in Durban had produced two prototypes of drones in early 1982 (see figure 16) 17 (b)(3) TinrSeeret--- SC 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Figure 17. The Cactus missile was developed jointly by France and South Africa in the 196 s It is currently in the South African inventory Missile Systems SIR estab- lished the National Institute for Defense Research (NIDR) in 1963 to develop and produce missiles, and in 1968 CSIR set up a missile test range in Natal Province. In 1978 Armscor announced the establish- ment of Kentron, a subsidiary responsible for missile development because of the many missile-related projects that were under way Surface-to-Air Missiles. South Africa's first attempt at missile production was a joint venture with the French firm Thompon-CSF during the mid-1960s. Franco�South African cooperation in the development of the op CivI SC 00489183 Cactus/Crotale surface-to-air missile (SAM) air de- fense system extended to the financing, design specifi- cations and adaptations, production of components, and assembly (see figure 17). South Africa announced the Cactus in 1969. 18 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 T u Scs..1 (b)(3) Figure 18. The Kukri V-3 mis- sile is now in service with the South African Air Force on Mirage Ills and F-1 s International Defense Review � Air-to-Air Missiles. The principal air-to-air missiles (AAM) in the SADF inventory are the French Matra R-530 and R-550 and the Kukri, which is made in South Africa. In 1979 Armscor introduced its first domestically produced AAM, the Whiplash or V-1, which was a modification of the US Sidewinder, a missile acquired from the United States in the early 1960s. The modifications included upgraded propel- lants and motors, improvements to the guidance system, and an optical sight built into the pilot's helmet for a "look and shoot" capability. According to DIA analysis, the Kukri or V-3 is a more advanced version of the V-1 and includes some features of the Matra. Armscor unveiled the Kukri at the Athens Internatiorl Arms Exposition in October 1982 (see figure 18). Surface-to-Surface Missiles. During the 1970s South Africa expected, in vain, that France would supply naval surface-to-surface missiles (SSM). Figure 19. Skorpion missile and canister installed on Minister- class guided-missile patrol boat purchased it from Israel. Moreover, the Skorpion missile system is installed on the Israeli-designed Mini ter-class uided missile patrol boat (see figure 19). Antitank Missiles. Armscor has not yet produced its own antitank missile. (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) In 1980 the South African Navy introduced a naval missile, the Skorpion, which it claimed was indigenously designed and produced. However, both the container-launcher and the missile are similar to the Israeli Gabriel system. Doubting the existence of a local capability for the manufacture of this missile, the US defense attache speculated that South Africa 19 Air-to-Surface Missiles. A program for an air-to- surface missile seems to have been shelved in recent years (b)(1) (b)(3) Recent press reports that South Atnca is manufacturing a missile similar to the French Exocet�with the assistance of an unidentified coun- try in the Far East�remain unconfirmed p CLI C SC 00489/83 (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 'n / D Scret Figure 20. A night-vision tele- scope mounted on an R-1 rifle, both of South African manu- facture (b)(3) (b)(1) Panorama C Other Materiel Electronics, Radars, and Air Control Systems. Ac- complishments by Armscor over the last decade, and its industrial expansion, lead us to believe that it has the capability to produce at least some of the electron- ics and optical systems, gyroscopes, and other compo- nents of the guidance and control package as well as propellants, rocket motors, and fuselages for their missile systems. In 1980 Armscor announced the establishment of a naval radar manufacturing indus- (b)(3) try in South Africa. (b)(1) (b)(3) Nonetheless, South Africa continues to be heavily dependent on foreign sources for electronics, radars, and air control systems. tup-Seefet SC 00489183 20 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) Fuses, Bombs, and Mines South Africa now has developed its own capability to pro- duce various types of fuses, bombs, and mines. During the 1970s, Israeli and possibly West German and Belgian firms provided proximity fuses, as well as equipment and technology for making fuses for small- and medium-caliber artillery and mortars (b)(1) (b)(3) Bomb design and production have developed at a (b)(1) faster rate than those of fuses even though there has (b)(3) been relatively little foreign help (b)(1) (b)(3) The US defense attache in Pretoria estimates that the technology in use now by Armscor in manufacturing mines is advanced by Western standards. Communications Equipment. South Africa claims self-sufficiency in communications equipment. There is little information to verify this claim, but recent South African advances in the field reveal the extent of its capabilities. In October 1982 Armscor introduced at an international arms exhibit a new frequency-hopping radio. According to the descriptive literature, the radio as well as a mobile VHF radio- telephone tactical command system are produced by a private South African contractor for Armscor (see (b)(3) figure 21). The Sum of the Parts In the most recent South African White Paper on Defense, published in 1982, the list of accomplish- ments of the domestic arms industry included self- sufficiency in artillery guns and rockets; fire-control equipment; short-range guided missiles; minicomput- ers; mine detectors and detonators; mine resistant and armored vehicles; tactical telecommunications equip- ment; antipersonnel and antivehicle ground mines; and small arms and ammunition. Notably absent 21 Figure 21. South African sol- diers operating the manpack version of South Africa's newest uency-hopping ra- dio. International Defense Review � (b)(3) from this list are high-technology and costly equip- ment such as aircraft, naval ships and systems, radars, electro-optics, and electronic warfare equipment (b)(3) With a few exceptions, we believe this list is accurate. Overall, the South African arms industry has been successful in supplying the SADF�in particular the ground forces�with most of the equipment it has needed, although at a higher cost than imports. The industry has expanded to address most requirements arising out of gaps in the inventory as well as to plan ahead for equipment to improve military capabilities. Nevertheless, the industry seems to be at its best when it modifies, copies, or repairs existing equipment. (b)(3) In spite of the industry's achievements, some compo- nents have been unable to produce some arms in sufficient quantities and quickly enough to replenish and build up inventories. This was particularly true after the Angolan incursion in 1975, when the SADF expended large quantities of ammunition; at that time South Africa turned to the European market. This constraint particularly affects some ground weapons systems and high-technology items which have com- ponents of foreign manufacture and whose production requires long leadtimes. This would impair South SC 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Africa's ability to fight a protracted conventional war and, in our judgment, prevent Pretoria from assuming the role of a reliable arms supplier in a third-party conflict As South Africa moves to modernize its arms inven- tory, it faces both old and new problems. Armscor has suffered consistently from a lack of skilled personnel at all levels. It has tried to overcome this by providing training programs, sending its own personnel abroad, and recruiting foreign personnel. We believe that Armscor has made progress in this area, but it will continue to be dependent on foreign technicians for the development of future weapons systems. Perhaps the most crucial problem afflicting Armscor today is insufficient capital, which stems from the continuing recession and budget deficits. The Navy, for example, has been unable to begin a large ship construction program because of a lack of funds. Armscor announced in 1982 an arms export drive that it hopes will help alleviate its financial problems. While exports will probably rise from their current low levels, we doubt that they will increase sufficient- ly to enable Armscor to meet its financial objectives. Barring a major change in the regional military equation or in South Africa's internal security situa- tion, we believe that Armscor will continue to ade- quately fulfill the country's armaments requirements. Although South Africa's needs for more advanced technology will continue to increase steadily, the industry has shown considerable flexibility in develop- ing and adapting weapons�both notably with foreign assistance�and probably will continue to do so. We believe that, as in the past, South Africa will acquire foreign technology, personnel, and materiel that it needs despite its pariah status and international arms embargoes. Achievements in the production of high- technology weapons systems will, however re uire long leadtimes, even with foreign help A major escalation of hostilities between South Africa and its Communist-backed neighbors, the breakdown of internal security, or a combination of increased external and internal security threats could, however, result in armaments requirements significantly in excess of Armscor's capabilities. A major broadening of the Namibian conflict stemming from a direct involvement of Cuban forces, for example, would probably result in the irreplaceable loss of South African jet fighters and helicopters. Already Pretoria protects its inventory of Mirage jets by avoiding high risk missions over southern Angola. Likewise, prose- cution by the SADF of a "two front war" such as might result from a continuation of the Namibian conflict at current levels coupled with the eruption of large-scale clashes along the Mozambique border, would stretch the SADF�and Armscor�thin. In a prolonged conflict of this nature, shortages would appear across the board, first in aircraft and before long in other categories of arms Implications for the United States South Africa's achievements in armaments produc- tion have allowed Pretoria to pursue aggressive re- gional military policies without being pinched by dependency on foreign suppliers of weapons. We believe that improvements in weapons production will help to reinforce South Africa's sense of its ability to control future developments in southern Africa. This, in our view, will make South Africa more resistant to US and Western pressure to modify both its domestic and regional policies South African officials, however, have frequently expressed a preference for US military equipment, especially high-technology items. Continued acquisi- tion by Armscor of US military technology�either through international arms dealers or through the cooperation of close US allies such as Israel�will create periodic problems for the United States. The Soviets can be expected, for example, to cite South Africa's ease in circumventing the UN arms embargo to bolster their claims that Washin ton is colluding with Pretoria against black Africa 22 'Thy-Secret� SC 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Toe Armscor 's Export Drive The principal reason for Armscor's aggressive effort to expand and diversify its foreign sales is economic. In addition to foreign exchange earnings, South Africa looks to an expanded overseas market to . absorb its excess arms production ca acit and to (b)(3) reduce the unit cost of its products. . Current Export Campaign In 1982 Armscor and its subsidiary for international marketing, Nimrod Promotions, Ltd., began an aggressive campaign to expand foreign sales. An- nouncing publicly that exports had become the "new priority," Armscor began to organize teams to market weapons overseas. It announced a goal of increasing yearly export sales from approximately $9 million to $130 million in the near future and expressed its willingness to sell arms to any country (b)(3) that wjsjieitherCgjnmunist nor hostile to South Africa (b)(1) (b)(3) We do not know how many transactions have been concluded by Armscor since it began its drive to sell abroad, nor is it clear whether the interested coun- tries would keep the equipment or act as intermediar- ies South Africa's Latin American market has received the most publicity so far. During the Falklands conflict, there were press allegations that South Africa was supplyi uni- tions and missiles. Nevertheless, the willingness of Armscor to sell arms to Argentina probably improved its image as a poten- tial supplier, at least to Latin America 23 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Top Sc... ct SC 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Trat-goase..t (b)(3) More profound consequences for the United States would follow should South Africa's external or inter- nal security situation lead to military requirements that outstrip Armscor's capabilities. A serious dilem- ma for the United States could result from major hostilities between South Africa and its Communist- backed neighbors, particularly in the event of increased Cuban and Soviet involvement. In such circumstances, Pretoria would seek to increase its covert purchases of Western military materiel and might also request direct US and Western military aid (b)(3) p VIcI SC 00489/83 24 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) Figure 22 Armaments Production and Testing Facilities *Windhoek NAMIBIA SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN Cape Town. BOTSWANA Transvaal Pretoria Johannesburgo.,, !Soweto � -c Orange Free State "N SOUTH AFRlaQ Cape N A rl � e Richard's Bay � Aircraft Artillery Missiles Naval craft Small arms and ammunition 411 ie. Tanks and armored vehicles Province boundary 201) K) 700408 (543001) 11-83 25 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 TSL SC 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 -TVIITIgeCUI_ SC 00489/83 26 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) I l"--- e�I (b)(1) (b)(3) FIZTEMIUMMM-FrOWVATOVIRMEWO1 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Ini Secrer 29 Top Sccra SC 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 -Thp-Seffet- SC 00489/83 30 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(1) (b)(3) I FIZTEMIUMMM-FrOWVATOVIRMEWO1 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 33 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 �Tep-geefet- SC 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 p Seret SC 00489183 34 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 'FreirRwrmt (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) 35 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Zap-SeaFot� SC 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Thp Seci et SC 00489183 36 (b)(3 (b)(1 (b)(1 ) ) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) 37 up vi. I c SC 00489183 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) ( -ON FIZTEMIUMMM-FrOWVATOVIRMEWO1 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) 41 Tap Scc. vl SC 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 �Ttrp-Seepet� SC 00489/83 42 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 cr (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) 43 up elf e SC 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 4em--grer.4- (b)(3) Trrp-SeeFet SC 00489/83 44 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Trio Secret (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) 45 p ecru SC 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 �Pup-Secret_ SC 00489183 46 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) 47 p ,v(1 e1 Sc 00489183 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) Tar-SesgeL SC 00489183 48 (b)(3) (b)(1) �. � A Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 I pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 7nrsef4e17.. (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) I a. 49 -1.4-see.a_ SC 00489/83 I pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 I pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 See (b)(3) ., A (b)(3) (b)(1) 51 up SvCP.i SC 00489/83 I pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 I pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) 53 Tbp Secret Sc 00489/83 I pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(1) 55 p vs..1 c Sc 00489183 pproved for Release: 2020/03/02 005144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(1) (b)(3) (b)(3) 57 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 40pScc1i c SC 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) b'(3 (b)(1) 58 SC 00489/83 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 IVIr9Mret (b)(3) (b)(3) 59 SC 00489183 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) +vir-SeeFet� SC 00489183 60 (b)(3) (b)(1) Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 (b)(3) 61 4itr-Seeret- SC 00489/83 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360 Approved for Release: 2020/03/02 C05144360