NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SURVEY 35; INDIA; GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 -anno me rn c. f .a highly di+rersif" multi 3s I. sacral drvrlapmrnt rcIorg westem�influeaoed Ilnr s Ifs *ills 0 the shuriural wlgllnevvine. chat snot, The Fula, jea"ip oevwv do of lhitrsperisrient system brings to os pailimawnlaty spleen a e': has tended to be buttaacrsltr: m[ l rater,, pewee Xoverrtmenl. >J 20 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 wo k; z C) f. 2 i y FIGURE 4. Party positions in parliament (U /OU) LOX RAJYA SABHA, SABHA, NAME OF PARTY 1971 1972 Ruling Congress Party 350 116 Organization Congress Party 16 20 Jana Sangh 22 15 Swatantra Party.. 8 9 Socialist Party 8 Samyukta Socialist Party (SSP) 3 Praja Socialist Party (PSP) 2 *1 Communist Party of India 24 11 Communist Party of India /Marxist........ 25 7 Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) 23 12 Major regional parties 13 3 Independents 12 9 Indian Revolutionary PL rty (Bharatiya Kranii Dal� BKD) 1 5 Others 16 11 Nominated 3 12 Vacancies.............................. 3 4 Total 521 243 Not pertinent. *The SSP and PSP merged in August 1971 to form the Socialist Party. *A few dissident PSP leaders in several states refused to accept the merger and retained their identity as PSP. The Congress Party's victories in the 1971 general election in 1971 and the state elections in 1972 virtually decimated the political opposition in India. Opposition parties of widely varying ideologies as well as those with specific regional, religious, or communal appeals still exist but, at least temporarily, are on the decline. The Hindu nationalist Jana Sangh, for example, lost ground to Congress in the general elections and the conservative Swatantra Party did even worse. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and the Congress Party have emerged as primary national representatives, but there is still room for parties that appeal to a clearly defined regional minority, such as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu. Such groups do not aspire to national omminence and represent no direct challenge to the Congress or Mrs. Gandhi. These opposition organizations can be expected to remain viable by attracting the loyalties of particular local groups, albeit in limited areas and with limited effectiveness. In order to foster the interest of the central government and to help preserve ties with New Delhi, the Congress Party has maintained a presence in those few areas where these regional groups are dominant. As long as a regional group does not overstep what Mrs. Gandhi considers a reasonable level of political activity, she appears to tolerate it, content with attempting to dilute its strength over a period of time. A few parties have confronted Congress with clearly delineated programs within a secular, noncommunal democratic framework, but none has had much success. In fact most have lost ground, especially since 1971. The Socialists, whose policies have been hardly distinguishable from those of the Congress Party, have not generated much mass appeal and, due to their apparently interminable squabbling, have been forced to unite in order to survive as a national organization. The Communists have also faired poorly, obtaining limited election victories, largely as the result of prior accommodations reached with Congress. Opposition parties were unable to take advantage of the unique opportunity for closer cooperation either nationally or locally during the days of Congress Party's decline. With the Congress Party's reemer- gence, the outlook for most cf the opposition appears bleak. Opposition will not totally fade away but for the foreseeable future it appears unlikely that any party is in the position to mount a significant challenge to the Congress. Most opposition parties have sought, generally unsuccessfully, for ways to recoup their losses. Should the Congress fail, however, to implement at least some of its promises of "progressive" measures, radical parties on the left and communal and nationalist parties on the right could gain new life. In either event, newly structured parties or alliances could spring up to mount some coordinated opposition to the Congress Party and to counter any attempts by Mrs. Gandhi to further weaken or destroy the remaining opposition parties. b. Congress Party The Indian National Congress, commonly referred to simply as the Congress, is India's oldest surviving political party. Founded in 1885 by Indian and reform minded British professionals and civil servants, the Congress was converted into a broad -based agitational movement in the early 1920's under the leadership of Mohandas Gandhi, called by his followers the Mahatma (Great Soul). The party's initial petitioning for greater Indian participation in policy councils gradually evolved into agitation for internal self government and finally into a full -scale independence movement characterized by massive civil disobedience campaigns. The Congress was highly successful at maiang the difficult transition from an agitational movement for independence into a modern nationwide political 21 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 organization capable of securing enough of the popular vote to dominate the political life of the country. Like the major U.S. political parties, the Congress became an aggregative organization seeking to hold together a maximum range of interests, with access to power and the perquisites of office providing the binding force. As such, Congress has always included left and right wings, its organizational leaders have often been at odds with the party's representatives in government at the state and national levels, and local interests have often conflicted with national party objectives. Under the charismatic leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru, the Congress remained essentially intact despite occasionally conflicting regional loyalties and disparate political views ranging from Western inspired socialism to indigenous Gandhian conserva- tism. In fact, the ability of the Congress to accommodate such wide diversity under the same organizational roof, stunted the growth of moderate opposition parties. These competitors were so fragmented that the Congress was able to win sweeping victories at the national level and in almost all of the states in the general elections of 1952, 1957, 1962, and 1971, even though its share of the overall popular vote never exceeded 48% (Figure 5). The fourth general election in February 1967, however, dealt a sharp blow to Congress Party fortunes, one from which the party was not able to recover for about 4 years. The stunning setbacks in 1967 were attributable to a number of related causes. The opposition parties enjoyed unprecedented success in forming reasonably effective anti Congress electoral alliances, especially for state assembly contests, at a time when voter faith in the Congress was weakened as a result of economic stagnation, rising prices, and serious food shortages. The Congress was also hurt by growing disunity within its own ranks, as intraparty squabbles were increasingly aired in public and provided the opposition with effective campaign ammunition. Indira Gandhi, Nehru's daughter, had become Prime Minister in January 1966, but she had neither the personal following nor the political muscle and appeal of her father and appeared unable to pull the party together. Factional feuds that had long raged in Congress Party organizations became even more intense, resulting in a large number of defections and the rise of small regional splinter parties in several states, drawing voters away from the parent organization. Roughly coincident with the 1967 elections, the long -time leaders of the party came under attack from a small, vocal group of younger members of Parliament �the so- called "Young Turks" �some of whom were over 50. The members of this amorphous group were characterized by their distance from the seats of power, the fact that they were too young to have participated in the struggle for independence, and by their strong inclination to see radical socialism as the cure for the party's and the country's problems. Following defeats in the national elections of 1967 and again in state elections in 1969, disagreements grew stronger between Mrs. Gandhi and other party leaders mainly the powerful group of senior party "barons" or "bosses" and the informal caucus within it popularly known as the "syndicate." These men controlled the party organization and had chosen Mrs. Gandhi for the post of Prime Minister in 1966. They resented her increasingly imperious approach, her efforts to strengthen her position by encroaching on their domains, and her attempts to restrict their exercise of power within the national government. The smouldering situation within the Congress finally burst into flame in July 1969. In a direct Challenge to Mrs. Gandhi's power and possibly as a first step in a plan to oust her, the bosses, over the Prime Minister's objection, pushed through the party's Parliamentary Board their nominee for Congress candidate to succeed the deceased President of India. Mrs. Gandhi refused to support the party's choice and backed V. V. Giri, who ultimately won a narrow victory in the presidential election. Following the elections, instead of the usual attempts by the leadership to paper over party differences, the struggle between Mrs. Gandhi and the bosses for party supremacy continued and intensified. Finally in November, after a tumultuous few months of maneuvering and consolidation by Mrs. Gandhi, the party formally split into the Organization Congress Party (OCP), dominated by the "syndicate," and the New or Ruling Congress Party. Mrs. Gandhi emerged as the dominant force in the latter and immediately began to fill party vacancies, including the position of party president, with her own supporters. In the subsequent vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha, which she won, Mrs. Gandhi was opposed principally by the OCP and two rightwing parties Swatantra and Jana Sangh. Her support came from her own Ruling Congress, from leftists including Com- munists �and from regional parties, and indepen- dents. For a period of about 2 years she depended on support of these groups as she slowly, methodically, and shrewdly began to consolidate her personal power and to rebuild the Congress Party in her image. k APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 1'"ST."CR"SYv... 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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 The single most important member of the Ruling Congress Party remains Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (Figure 6). She is India's only truly national figure and is recognized throughout the nation. She is charismatic and projects an aura of power, independence, self confidence, and determination. Although she has surrounded herself with a coterie of congenial younger advisers who advocate left -of- center policies, she is dependent on no one. She has shown loyalty to her friends, but she has not hesitated to remove them when she considered it expedient to do so. 1Jnli4e her father, who relied heavily on the advice of others, Mrs. Gandhi appears to use her advisers primarily '.o enhance her own political ends. Her advisers are generally characterized by intelligence and the ability they have developed in specific fields, but even more by their lack of any personal political base and complete loyalty to Mrs. Gandhi. Key advisers in- elude Minister for Industrial Development, C. Subramaniam; Minister of Planning, D. P. Dhar; Ambassador- designate to the United States, T. N. Kaul; Secretary to Mrs. Gandhi, P. N. Mar; Minister of Home Affairs, U. S. Dixit; and Mrs. Gandhi's retired former Secretary, P. N. Haksar. All are important to her, but none are indispensable, and no one person is her confidant on all matters. FIGURE 6. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (C) The Congress Party's landslide victories in the 1971 general and 1972 state elections were personal victories for Mrs, Gandhi. She gambled that chances of winning a parliamentary majority would be best in 1971, a year before the constitution required elections. She campaigned vigorously throughout the nation and won a two thirds majority in Parliament and a 5 -year mandate to improve the lot of India's masses. Her success in the gamble resulted in an almost unassailable position for her in both aty and government. The 1972 state elections put the icing on the cake. The Congress Party, riding the crest of Mrs. Gandhi's personal popularity, which had been heightened by her handling of the 1971 Indo- Pakistani crisis, won over 70% of the seats and control of all but 3 small entities among the 16 states and 2 union territories electing assemblies (Figure 7). The comparatively slight increases in representation achieved by the Communist Party of India (CPI) and minor regional parties were largely accomplished as a result of arrangements with the Congress Party or agreement by the Congress not to contest certain seats. All other national parties suffered a substant. d reduction in seats held. The OCP, perhaps the hardest hit by Ruling Congress Party election victories, has virtually collapsed. Its strength in the lower house was reduced in 1971 from 65 to 16 seats, while it only won 86 seats in the 1972 state elections, a considerable drop from the 217 seats previously held. Many ambitious OCP members, including some party leaders, have defected to the Ruling Congress Party since it appears there is little future in the OCP, presumably diluting its organizational strength and presaging its eventual dissolution. These sweeping state victories gave Mrs. Gandhi virtually unique domination over India's politics. Most incumbent Congress state chief ministers, as well as new appointees to those posts, owe their jobs to Mrs. Gandhi's favor and not to their base in the state party organization. Presumably, center -state relations could now become more pliable, with differences being reconciled at the party level. Under the stimulus of Mrs. Gandhi's success, Congress has broadened its appeal, especially to the underprivileged and youth, and at the same time it has centralized and revitalized its control over the nation. General support for both party and government has halted the trend toward splinter politics dominated by regional and local interests. Once again the Congress' Party has become the principal arena for political competition. Enhanced national authority has somewhat inhibited the politically inspired violence and divisive APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 24 The Congress Party's landslide victories in the 1971 general and 1972 state elections were personal victories for Mrs, Gandhi. She gambled that chances of winning a parliamentary majority would be best in 1971, a year before the constitution required elections. She campaigned vigorously throughout the nation and won a two thirds majority in Parliament and a 5 -year mandate to improve the lot of India's masses. Her success in the gamble resulted in an almost unassailable position for her in both aty and government. The 1972 state elections put the icing on the cake. The Congress Party, riding the crest of Mrs. Gandhi's personal popularity, which had been heightened by her handling of the 1971 Indo- Pakistani crisis, won over 70% of the seats and control of all but 3 small entities among the 16 states and 2 union territories electing assemblies (Figure 7). The comparatively slight increases in representation achieved by the Communist Party of India (CPI) and minor regional parties were largely accomplished as a result of arrangements with the Congress Party or agreement by the Congress not to contest certain seats. All other national parties suffered a substant. d reduction in seats held. The OCP, perhaps the hardest hit by Ruling Congress Party election victories, has virtually collapsed. Its strength in the lower house was reduced in 1971 from 65 to 16 seats, while it only won 86 seats in the 1972 state elections, a considerable drop from the 217 seats previously held. Many ambitious OCP members, including some party leaders, have defected to the Ruling Congress Party since it appears there is little future in the OCP, presumably diluting its organizational strength and presaging its eventual dissolution. These sweeping state victories gave Mrs. Gandhi virtually unique domination over India's politics. Most incumbent Congress state chief ministers, as well as new appointees to those posts, owe their jobs to Mrs. Gandhi's favor and not to their base in the state party organization. Presumably, center -state relations could now become more pliable, with differences being reconciled at the party level. Under the stimulus of Mrs. Gandhi's success, Congress has broadened its appeal, especially to the underprivileged and youth, and at the same time it has centralized and revitalized its control over the nation. General support for both party and government has halted the trend toward splinter politics dominated by regional and local interests. Once again the Congress' Party has become the principal arena for political competition. Enhanced national authority has somewhat inhibited the politically inspired violence and divisive APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 C4 f) 4 0 a 0 C 5 0 C4 P O O vr cp OC 0 LU 01 U z LO 0 ol t- cl C4 Lo cl m Go 14 10 0 o "1 *0 z z 0 Z 4 z 86 0 0 z- CA -0 .0 v3 c2 c go Z 0 16 oo to to t- 0 x w CV I Go z A. 0 o Id O V. a d ds S6 O t m 25 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA-RDP01-00707R000200070032-3 \I tendencies which characterized the late 1960's in such states as West Bengal. With consolidation of power, personnel changes in the Congress Party arid government have been initiated. The process of recasting the national party in the image of it more tractable, youth- oricntrd, and reform minded organization has bcgun. It is through a newly structured party that Mrs. Gan:lhi apparently hopes to engage the masses :(n(] move India forward economically arid socially with direction from the center, while at the same time serving national and local political interests as she perceives them. Although Congress hegemony exists over the states, Congress Party Politics are likely to remain fluid. Ilowever, the Ruling Congress for the time being must rely at the state level on local "fat cats," particularly wealthy farmers. At the local level, most Congress Party branches are characterized by factionalism, regionalism, and caste considerations. Factional tension, to some extent ideologically motivated, as well as compromise could color Congress Party Politics until the new chief ministers consolidate their Positions. It is riot likely, however, that factionalism will grow to unmanageable prolxrtions as long as Congress Party direction flows from the center. The Indian people expect Mrs. Gandhi to fulfill her campaign promises to provide forceful "progressive" leadership and to initiate dynamic and pragmatic programs for dealing with India's highly visible problems. These include a burgeoning population, widespread unem loyment, economic stagnation, an antiquated tax system, land reform, social injustice, labor strife, and inadequate education. Constrained by political and economic considerations, she Probably will not be able to institute the sweeping reforms she desires and will likely continue her basically pragmatic but moderately left-of-center approach to these massive problems. Failure to at least begin to solve these problems could rapidly dissipate the present Power of the Congress Party. In India, efforts to bring abut change, even when done on it nationwide basis arid utilizing millions of dollars, often may riot even make a dent in the problem. The bureancracy is cumbersome and talent is short. Even with Congress Party control at the center, the ability of the states to implement policy varies w id ly. Additionally, imaginative planning, should it come about, can be thwarted I.y traditionalism and resistance to change at every level. The Congress Party had about I I million member% according to figures available in the late 1%. 0's, some 2013,000 of whom were con -idered "active member," i.e., those having the right to hold party office. The 26 party is the tnost broadly based political organization in India, drawing its metnbership,from all regions and levels of society. Finances :Ire obtained from membership does and public contributions, largely frorn wealthy landowners and industrialists who have considerable behind the scales influence. The Congress Party is a many tiered organization that includes several small but extremely important party organs. Overlapping membership in organiza- tions within the party in(] the government �in both executive and legislative branches assures that party control resides in the hands of the Prime Minister::nd a few other top Congress leaden aril tha; the dialogne between party and government continues. In descending order of subordination, the All -India Congress Committee (AI(:(.), Pradesh Congress Committees (PCC), r)istriet Congress f.ommittees (DCC) aril Bloc (Mandal) Congress Committees form the basic Party units at the national, state, administrative district and local levels. In addition, (here may be committees, subordinate to the DC( "s, above or below the bloc committees as determined by the PCC concerned. Bloc committees and DCC's are directly elected by the active members at each level, while the PCC's and AI( are indirectly chosen by their respective sulordinate units. All committees include members coopted from functional groups representing labor, youth, peasants. and castes. The Working (;e)mmittee (WC) is the supreme policymaking arid executive authority of the party. The formal structure of authority is highly centralized and oligarchic. Nominally responsible to the AI(:(:, the WC carries out the policies aril programs of the party, has the lower to direct and control all subordinate Congress committees. and is the final authority on all matter regarding interpretation and :Ipp IIC'atleln of the 0nigrrss Party constitution. It consists of 20 members plus the part president who are either memblcn of the AI( or, as in the ea of appointers, are elected to It within 6 months of their aprmintment. A number of permanent "special invitees ninr in 1972 �arc app o)inted (o the WC by the party president. This device serves to expand the mernbenhip beyond the official limit of 21 and provides a place for other leading party ncmlmn at top party deliberation WC mretiugs are alu :attended by chief minister of (ongrm% -Ird states, thereby facilitating communications brtw(-rn national and state leaden. In practice, the WC is an instrnment of the Prime Minister, sine' 10 of its member% are app o)intrd by the party prmident in consultation with the Prime Minister. The president, in turn, has been elected by the AI(:(:, which has perfunctorily ratified N APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 "1 the Prime Minister's choice. The WC includes it s Parliamentary Board, which frames rules for the regulation and coordination of the party's legislative activities, and it Central Election Committee (CEC), which has the final authority over selection of candidates for cent r and state legislatures. The CF.0 may riot only overrule recommendations of lower committees but may nominate it candidate who ha i not even applied for a ticket. Although riot mentioned in the Congress Party constitution, the Congress Parliamentary Party (C;PP), composed of Congress members of Nab houses of Parliament, performs several important functions. Assuming the Congress either is the majority park. in Parliament or leads the governing coalition, the elected CPP leader becomes Prime Minister. An Executive Committee, whose members may also be on the WC, controls the C;PP, monitors major legislation, and c(mrdinates ministerial and party programs so that they conform to basic party lines. A plenary session of AICC is ordinarily held Nanpually, at which time state -level committee deleg debate and approve the Congress' basic policy and program. The Congress Party ideology in the immediate post independence era was shaped largely by Jawaharlal Nehru, and many of his ideas continue to be influential. Nchm, the son of a prominent and wealth-. Western ed icated lawyer and himself a i graduate of Harrow and Cambridge, urged the application of Westerii Hcialist concepts to the massive problem of improving the living standards of the Indian people. Thus, the party formally .adopted as its goial the establishment of it "ra cialist state" based on parliamentary democracy. It championed secularism in government and equal rights and opportunities for all citizens regardless of race. religion, caste, or sex. Among its economic goals were rapid industrialization throngh a mix-ure of government and private undertakings, a more equitable distri bution of wealth. redistribution of land j to accommoxlate the landless, and increased food production. These and other objectives have been incorporated into the government's successive economic plans, which beltan with the inauguration of the First Five fear Plan in April 1931 Dogged adherence to socialist ideological objectives, however. has sometimes resulted in policim that are politically and ideologically sound but often inefficient in the I Indian context. Despite the urgent need for pragmatism, recent pm-,ures have causal Congress leadenhip to seek more "progressive" socioeconomic l reform programs to dead with India's multifarious problems. In order to retain her txlitica grip on the party, however. Mrs. Candhi must be it moderating force. Site has had to balance the ideological differences witliBn the Congress Party's broad -based membership by selectively nodertaking xmc socialist programs �such as hank nationalization �along with more practical economic measures. The result has often been slow economic progress overlaid with inefficiency. Apparently wedded to its ideology. entrenched in politics, and mired by a series of persistent contradictions, the Congress Party's leadership seems unable to prevent ideological disputes from blocking many of the practical steps which many democracies and developing economies ha.. accepted and used effectively. Political and ideological constraints have kept the Congress Party from advocating policies which would compromise the goad of achieving economic self sufficiency. Such constraints have prevented the effectiv, exploitation of either the public or private sectors of Indian industry as a force to promote technological change and capital acumi.datinn. In addition, these constraints retard the use of foreign capital. technology, and management skills. �olitically attractive calls for "progressive" reorientation of the party, accordingly, have met with more favor than calls for the hard measures a strictly pragmatic approach rntails. Nevertheless, 0)ngress leaden realize that foreign capital is desperately needed. They have been unable. however, to develop a satisfactory policy which can reconcile the apparent inconsistency of accepting massive foreign capital and advocating self suf ficiency. Internationally, the party has advocated nonalign- ment between the West and the Communist world, hot there have been considerable shifts in the thinking of party leaden as they have grappled with the problem of winning great power aid to cope with India's econom ;c problems and to meet the threat from China. Despite the Congress Party's noticeable tilt toward the Soviet Union and away from the United States in 1971 �in line with Mn Gandhi's policy �and despite its endorsement of the Indo- Soviet treaty of friendship and coxpo� ration signed in August of that year, the Congress staunchly maintained its adherence to nonalignment. r;onxress leaden assert that the treats was in India's national interests and that India can and will assert its own coupe in international affairs. By 1972 many party leaden seemed to favor it policy that would keep aid flowing from Ixth the Soviet Union and the West, while preserving enough independence and flexihilih on international .iuestions to ward off charges of a sell- out to the major powen. The party has been divided 27 1. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 over the years in its attitude toward Pakistan. Many leaders have favored firmness toward the neighboring Islamic state, but others have encouraged easing of Indo- Pakistani tensions. Divisions became sharper throughout the 1971 East Pakistan crisis, but Congress leaders generally favored Mrs. Gandhi's efforts in supporting Bangladesh. c. Rharatiga Iona Sangh One of the few parties to emerge intact, albeit weakened, from the sweeping election victories of the Congress Party in 1971 find 1972 has been the Hindu nationalist Bharattya Jana Sangh (Indian People's Part) often simply called the Jana Sangh. Until recently, its electoral record had been one of sustained gro- Although its success was spotty in 1971 -72, the Jana Sangh managed to win 22 seats in the L.ok Sabha and 105 seats in the state legislative assemblies �a loss of 11 and 100 seats, respectively. Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan (where the party slightly increased its state legislative seats), however, accounted for well over 75% of its victories in both national and state elections. Traditional Hindu sentiment is strong in these areas and, in the latter two tates, former princely rulers Flocked to the party in reaction to Mrs. Gandhi's efforts to abolish their special privileges. Without the backing of the princes, it is likely that the Jana Sangh would not have done as weii since it lacked a strong popular base and the organization to support its efforts. The Jana Sangh's now discredited F,971 opposition alliance with the Organization Congress Party, the conservative Swatantra Party, and the radical socialist Samyukta Socialist Party (now merged into the Socialist Party) thus gained only marginal results in the national and state elections. The Jana Sangh was founded in 1951 as the political offshoot of the Rashiriya Suwyamuoak Sangh (National Volunteer Corps �RSS), a militant and xenophobic cultural organization that was banned from political activity after Gandhi was assassinated in 1948 by a former member. The Jana Sangh is structurally separate from the RSS, but in many important respects the RSS provides the party's organizational backbone and ideological inspiration. Overtly. RSS activities are now cultural in character, but in reality the organization remains politically active through the Jana Sangh. Most of the Jana Sangh's political leadership has come from the highly indoctrinated RSS ranks, and RSS cadres, many of whom are also Jana Sangh party members, are essential to that party's organizational work and electoral campaigns. In marked contrast to Hinduism generally, the RSS is a tightly organized, proselytizing movement with strong martial overtones. It recruits widely among younger people and maintains a high sense of commitment and cohesion among its members through drill sessions, uniforms, army -style summer cs-rnps, and emphasis on physical fitness and disciph:ie. The RSS rejects all foreign ideology and technology, arguing that the far richer Hindu cultural ho .i age contains all the ingredients for creating a strong, modem state. RSS members are often accused of stimulating communal violence, partly because they tend to inflame Hindu passions that can be turned against Muslims. from the RSS point of view, all non Hindus are essentially foreigners and should be allowed to stay in India only if "subordinate to a Hindu nation, claiming nothing and deserving no privilege." Pakistan, the RSS asserts, should be reincorporated �by force if necessary. Public positions taken by the Jana Sangh have been less extreme than those of the RSS and, especially since the 1967 general elections, there has been a trend toward moderation on domestic issues. At its 1968 annual congress, the Jana Sangh backed away from its longstanding demand for Hindi as the sole official language and agreed that civil service examinations might be taken in regional languages. As a symbol of its change of mind, the party congress itself was held in the southern state of Kerala, rather than as usual in the northern Hindi- speaking heartland. The former Jana Sangh President, A. B. Valpayee, was one of the principal architects of the party's slow evolution from extreme nationalism to relative moderation, at least on the national level. A. L. Advani has led the party further from its communal, petit bourgeois origins since becoming party president in January 1973. Internationally, the Jana Sangh program is ultranationalistic, sometimes even bordering on xenophobia. It calls for greatly expanded defense preparation against Pakistan and China, including the manufacture of atomic weapons, and takes a very hard line against these adversaries. The Jana Sangh also urges that India remain aloof from all world power blocs, although its hostility toward Communist co untries is greater than that toward the West. Its policy of nonalignment is tempered by a willingness to enter into bilateral accords if they clearly serve India's strategic interests. The party asserts that it would discourage foreign capital in all but the highest priority industries, and it favors a reorientation of development programs to phase out foreign aid. The party has deplored the concentration of economic power in the hands of the state or even of a few individuals. It maintains, however, that the state r APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP0l- 00707R000200070032 -3 r should par!icipatc in basic industries necessary for defense and economic development, but should seek the cooperation of private enterprise in the interest of i more efficient and cheaper production. The trend toward moderation of the Jana Sangh's domestic program results from the party's desire to expand its base of popular support outside northern and central India. There also appear to be many within the party who no longer identify close y with the RSS's traditionalist and north India Ifindu nationalist concepts and who world prefer that the party move toward reducing its Brahmin image by becoming a moderate, broad -based political force. There are still, however, definite limits as to how far the Jana Sangh can move away from its RSS moorings. Beyond the fact that the RSS provides the party with organizational muscle, J,na Sangh support has traditionally come mair,ly from the Hindu urban middle class of salaried workers and retail tradesmen, and small landowners in the Hindi speaking areas of central and northern India. The party's greatest support has been in Hindi speaking northern states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi, and among Hindi- speakers in Bihar, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryand, and southern Jammu and Kashmir. Outside of the Hindi heartland, it has done well only in Maharashtra, one of its early strongholds. Despite all its talk abeut national unity, the Jana Sangh is still I basically a potentially important regionalist parity based on high caste, middle class, north Indian Hindu concepts and ideals. The Jana Sangh is far from united on the wisdom of collaboration with rightist parties and individuals not bound by its own tight concepts of discipline and program. Nevertheless, in the late 1960's it investigated the prospects for merger with like- minded parties. The results were inconclusive. The party can be expected zealously to protect its identity regardless of any cooperative arrangements it may enter. The Jana Sangh's distinct gradualist approach in past merger discussions has led many observers to believe that the party could be developing a calculated plan eventually to absorb weaker parties rather than to effect mergers between theoretical equals. legislative assembly elections in 1972 were even more disastrous, with the party retaining only 16 of the 175 seats gained at the last poll. Prior to June 1972, Swatantra led a fragile cr,alition government with the regional Utkal Congress Party in Orissa, but the government fell under Congress Party pressure that month. Swatantra's potential for winning votes among the non- privileged majority �a crucial sector to electoral success in India �has been severely limited by its image as the party of industrialists, princes, and guardian of upper -class interests. Internal differences among the leadership over the party's conservative philosophy threatens to destroy it as a viable organization. The party is unlikely to benefit either nationally or locally from Congress Party short comings. The Swatantra Party was formed in 1959 to contest the Congress Party's welfare state program. It deplores t he "statism" toward which it sees the country moving render Congress Party rule. Frankly espousing the cause of the middle -class businessman and private enterprise generally, the Swatantra Party calls for a maximum of individual freedom and minimum interference by the state. It favors private ownership of land as opposed to cooperative farming, incentives for higher production in industry, the relaxation of governmental controls over business, the continuation of government -owned enterprises only when they can be run profitably, and the elimination of monopolies, both public and private. On foreign policy the party is pro-West. Swatantra is led by disaffected former Congress and Socialist Party leaders�the most notable of whom was the late former Governor General of India, C. Rajagopalachari�as well as by some prominent industrialists and financiers. H. M. Patel, a member of Parliament, was elected President in September 1971, but he was succeeded in late 1972 by Piloo Mody, also a member of Parliament. Swatantra is also actively supported by a number of the maharajas of former princely states, many of whom still enjoy the loyalty of their erstwhile subjects, and on whom the party is heavily dependent for electoral support. As of 1972. Swatantra was still topheavy with leaders but short on rank- and -file support outside the states of Orissa, Gujarat, and Rajasthan. Even in Orissa, Swatantra strength rests !argely on the appeal of former Chief Minister Singh Den's locally rooted Ganatantra Partzhad, which flies the Swatantra Flag but which pays little real attention to "national" Swatantra affairs. Organizationally. Swatantra has had a rather flimsy structure, has been riven with high -level disputes, and has lacked real cohesion. In contrast to d. Swatantra Party The conservative Swatantra (Freedom) Party, largest opposition party after the IR67 general election, was virtually eliminated as a national party in the 1971 general election. It lost all but S of its 3:i Lok Sabha seats and was further humiliated by the defeat of its co- founder and president, M. R. Masani, who resigned the presidency under fire. The state 29 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 most other Indian political parties, SwatanIra organizational activity since the 1967 elections appears to have slackened rather than increased in tempo. The Swa .antra Party also has a serious image problem. Its ideology is too Westernized to attract it broad -based national following, and it has failed in practice to present a sharply differentiated alternative to the Congress. At the same time, Swatantra's appeal to disgruntled conservatives faces strong comn:�tition from more vigorous regional parties, while unhappy nationalists are more likely to tuirn to the Jana Sangh or the Socialists. e. Socialist parties India's socialist parties have always had a difficult time competing with the Congress Party and in mid 1972 were on the decline. The Congress Party's own socialist line particularly since 1935 �has upstaged their efforts, sapped their vitality by stripping them of many i,ues, and deprived there of many potential adlien :sty. More importantly, socialists have been so beset with internal leadership struggles, splits and mergers, and tactical disputes that they have been unable to offer a credible alternative to the socialism of the (ongress Party. The socialists, in the general election of 1971, managed to retain only 5 of the 32 Lok Sabha seats previously held by the two major socialist parties -1" by the Samyukta Socialist Party (SSP) and 15 by the Praja Socialist Part (PSP). These parties were forced in late 1971 to merge once again, as they had nearly 20 years before, in order to survive as a national farce, but even this could not prevent a few dissident PSP anti SSP members from retaining their identity. The combined socialists, under the banner of the Socialist Party, retained only 50 of 160 seats in the 1972 state elections, 33 coming from Bihar where the SSP had limited strength. The new party incorporated the SSP, most of the PSP, the Indian S;cialist Party of Kerala, and small socialist splinter groups from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. After a period of ferment, characterised by intense in- fighting among a multiplicity of individualistic leaders, none predominant, the socialists split once again in April 1972 into several groups, each claiming to be the "real" Socialist Party. The socialists have had disproportionate strength among students and labor. They have capitalized on the a; ti- establishment, idealistic, and theoretical tendencies of students. Their youth groups have effectively challenged other party youth organisations of all political stripes. In the labxr field, the socialists 30 form a significant component of the non Communist, non Congress oriented trade union unnement. The SSP and I'SP have played major roles in the complex history of socialism in India. Factions have tended over the yeas to group around the basic tenets espoused by the SSP or the PSP. Even these general groupings, however, have not prevented dissident suhfactions and splinter groups fr.m forming to further muddle the situation. The SSP has tended to be the larger and more radical group. Beyond its adherence to socialism, the SSP has taken an exaggeratedly anti- Congress posture and h as been even more fundamentally committed to unseating Congress wherever, whenever, and with whatever means possible. Its appeal is aimed at the downtrodden, especially the so- called "backward class" elements, and is enriched by invective, a :strong dose of reckless iconoclasm, and a northern Indian ccmmunal bias. Its leadership has tended toward opp ontunism, as illustrated by it:: willingness to join alliances �such as a rightist oriented one during the 1971 general election and to participate in coalition state governments where, because of the relative strength of the parties, the SSP had little chance of influencing policy. SSP leadership and organization never recovered from the death of its founder, Ram Manohar Lohia, in 1%. 7. Competition for his mantle has preoccupied the SSP since then. Raj Narain, George Fernandes, and Madhu Limaye carry I ohia's brand of socialism into the 1970'x. Despite its pretense to be a national party, most of the SSP's strength is in the northern Hindi- speaking states, especially in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. In that area, the SSP is very influential in student politics. The party's major affiliated front organizations, except for its trade union organization �the /find Mazdoor Panchayat (Indian Labor Council). exist mosth� on paper. The PSP, in contrast, has been relatively moderate in its socialism, and national rather than regional in its approach. Intraparty squabbling, especially over ideology and tactics, has divided the party and threatened to destrov it from within. Now under the leadership of N. G. Goray and M. Dandavate, the PSP has never fully recovered from the defection of its most prominent leader, Asoka Mahta, and his followers in 1964. Many PSP members believe that their goals are best served by foregoing compromise, mergers, or coalitions, no matter how much this might consign their party to an isolated, permanent opposition role. Realistically, however, many PSP units are in favor of and have engaged in limited cooperative agreements over the years. Individual members, and at times party r INC APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 leaders, have found "areas of agreement" with the from both the upper middle -loss population as well as Congress Party, but trafficking with Congress has usually resulted in added strength for the Congress Party rather than the PSP. The PSP's policy of "meaningful dialog" with Congress prior to the 1971 general election ended in PSP isolation and near extinction as a parliamentary force. PSP organizations in K,!rala, Bihar, aad West Bengal, where the party had participated in coalition governments, and in Orissa, where it had hoped to participate, were dashed when the renewed Socialist Party decided to forego governmental alliances with other parties. Dissident PSP unit.; in several states, in fact, refused to go along with merger of Socialist parties and retained their identity as PSP. Unsullied by political power and position, the PSP has had significant influence in the labor field through its affiliate trade union, the /find Mazdoor Sabha (Indian Labor Congress). PS" youth organizations have also been effective in engaging student sympathies. Party revitalization, which is imperative for PSP survival, could be sought from these sectors. f. Communist parties India's organized Communist movement �one of the first outside the Soviet Union �began with the formation of the Communist Party of India (CPI) in l early 1921. The party was first affiliuied with the Communist International in 1921 and, after a break of an undetermined period, reaffiliated in 1930. The i Communist movement struggled through uncertain f years characterized by organizational difficultie�c and repression from Anglo- Indian authorities, but t grew, albeit slowly, until 193.3. In that year Indian Communists adopted the Communist International policy of cooperation with legal, liberal, and non Communist radical organizations while simul- taneously infiltrating them in order to gain control. By espousing an anti- imperialist line which was attractive o the Indian people, the Communists gained influence in the trade union movement and even in the Indian National Congress. The CPI acquired legal status as a political party in 1942. The Communists' appeal in India is limited, both geographically and in terms of mass popular support. Although the Communists have managed consistently to win the backing of 8% to 10% of the Indian electorate, they k have been unable to expand their following significantly for over a decade. Mo,. Communist support comes from poorer sections of the population, but many members are drawn from the middle class and from the educated unemployed. Radical factions have recruited heavily from the ranks of professional thugs Me largest Communist constituencies are usually found in West Bengal, Kerala, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and 'Tamil Nadu, where high population density and poverty make life a constant struggle. In West Bengal, for instance, the Communists are heavily supported by Calcutta's middle class clerical wo :ers, in Kerala by h. v caste landless agricultural workers, and generally in Maharashtra by industrial workers in the Bombay area. In Andhra Pradesh much of the Communist leadership comes from the kamma caste, whose members are predominantly landowning peasants living in the Krishna and Godavari river deltas, but the party also draws considerable support from the unpropertied tenant farmers and agricultural laborers in the same general area. Communist strategy in India has varied consider- ably over the years. The German attack on the Soviet Union during World War 11 resulted in open support by Indian Communists for the British war effort. The simultaneous imprisonment of many Congress Party leaders because of their noncooperative attitude gave the Communists ereater latitude in building `heir organization and cadres. After India achieved independence in 1947, the Communists, with Moscow's support, felt strong enough to incite violent rev( )'ution but were able to sustain a rebellion only in the Telengana area of what is now Andhra Pradesh. By 1(,51 this effort had clearly failed, and the party fell back on its stronghold among the labor unions in urban areas. Despite the party's post- rebellion disorganization, it became the largest opposition party through a skillful placing of candidates in the general election of 1952. The hard -line Communists were unreconciled to the shift to parliamentary tactics, but its value appeared to be borne out in the 1957 elections, in which the Communists gained control of the newly constituted State of Kerala, the first time that the Communists had come to power by popular ballot anywhere in the world. The subsequent collapse of the Communist Kerala government in 1959, following Congress Party inspired disorders, rekindled the intra -party dispute between the moderates and the militants. The party's activists, who were sympathetic to Maoist militancy without fully supporting the Chinese tactics, argued that the Congress Party reactionaries would never permit a peaceful Communist takeover and that the parliamentary approach was dulling the Communists' rapacity for more forceful action. Party moderates, for their part, were restricted by their loyalty to Moscow, which was even thin attempting to cement close ties 31 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 with the Congress Party government. The 1962 Chinese attack on India further embittered the quarrel, when the moderates strongly backed the Indian Government and many of the militants were arrested. The final split came in 1964 when the militants, with about half of the membership of the CPI, broke off from the parent organization to form the separate Communist Party of India /Marxist (CPM). The CPM fot d itself in control of the movement in West Rengal and Kerala, the two states where the united party's organization and leadership had been the strongest. The factions were about equal in two other traditional areas of Communist strength, Andhra Pradesh and Mad as (later renamed Ta-nil Nadu). The CPI had the edg in most other states, but none of these had ever been a Communist stronghold. The CPI and the CPM eaLh have an estimated 80,000 to 100,000 active members, although each claim many more. Both Communist parties contested the fourth general election in 1967. The CPI, which had abandoned its earlier policy of cooperating with "progressives" in the Congress Party, decided on total opposition to the ruling party. The CPM leadership, despite its rejection of the parliamentary approach to power, opted to participate in the elections on the grounds that Indian conditions required participation in the constitutional system while mass support was gradually being developed for future revolutionary activity. The degree of electoral cooperation and competition �often bitter� bet'Neen the two major Communist parties varied widely from state to state. The CPI fared slightly better in Parliament than the CPM, whereas in state contests the CPM had the edge. The CPM victories were concentrated in Kerala and West Bengal, however, giving the part} a far more decisive role in those states than the CPI had elsewhere. In the post- election period the CPI joined in anti Congress coalitions in the state governments wherever possible (Kerala, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh). Following the failure of most coalitions, however, the party reverted to its earlier policy of cooperation witE the Congress. This posture heightened the antipathy between the CPI and the CPM. Although the two major Communist parties, when taken together, received less harsh treatment at the polls in 1971 and 1972 than other opposition parties, their limited successes distort their actual mediocre performance. The two parties combined increased their Lok Sabha seats only slightly from 43 to 49 (173 candidates entered) and managed to retain only 146 of 32 203 seats previously held in the state assemblies. A significant number of CPI victories in both elections were actually achieved, however, as a result of Congress largess. Of the 24 seats the CPI retained in the Lok Sabha �the same number it held before elections �all but two resulted from prior noncom petition arrangements with Congress. Although the CPI, with 112 seats, emerged from the state assembly elections as the largest opposition party, the story of victory was much the same as the previous yes,r. The party benefitted where it had arrangements with Congress, i.e., Bihar, West Bengal, Punjab, Mysore, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Delhi, gaining 95 seats through this partnership. Bihar and West Bengal, however, accounted for 35 seats each. In states where the CPI ran in opposition to Congress it managed to win only 19 seats. In 1971 the CPI claimed a membership of about 232,000. The CPI's position in Indian politics was weakened by Mrs. Gandhi's refusal to enter into national election agreements in 1971 which would place her in debt to the CPI, and her decision to enter agreements in 1972 only where Congress supposedly needed either pooled organizational and voting strength or a united leftist vote against rightists. Mrs. Gandhi's overwhelming control of Parliament ^nd almost all state assemblies has rendered CPI s port far less necessary than in previous years when her position was more vulnerable. The CPI's partial alliance with Congress has limited its agitational capability and revolutionary potential. On the other hand, the agreement has served the interests of the CPI as well as of the Congress against the CPM in the latter's Kerala and West Bengal bases. The CPI has been torn by dissension over the direction the party should take in the immediate future. At its Ninth Party Congress in October 1971, the leadership seemed to recognize that the party's best means of survival rested on its continuing close association with the Congress Party, despite the danger of losing the party's identity in such a liaison. A dissenting minority opposed both the alliance and adherence to the parliamentary process while urging closer cooperation with the CPM and the adoption of more revolutionary methods. To placate them CPI leaders retained the right to criticize the "wrong policies" of the Congress and to explore avenues for joint action with the CPM. Nevertheless, in mid -1972, the CPI was too emasculated to criticize Congress with any vigor and remained ideologically alienated from the CPM. The CPM was the only party other than Congress which increased its Lok Sabha seats in 1971, growing s o APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 P from 19 to 25, but its overall position has deteriorated. The party had run 88 candidates. Twenty of the victors came from West Bengal, where the Marxists were a very strong political force. This limited success in 1971 was soon offset by the staggering defeat the CPM suffered at Congress' hands in the 1972 state assembly election. The party retained only 34 of 129 seats it formerly held. Most importantly, the CPM lost almost 100 seats in West Bengal and managed to salvage only 14 seats in a state which the party had dominated since 1967. The only other sizable CPM victory was the 16 seats it won in Tripura, where the party had built up modest strength over the previous two years. The defeat in West Bengal was particularly crushing for the CPM. Prior to the state assembly election, the party had good organization, leadership, and finances and was the only significant political force in the state other than the Congr -ss. Mrs. Gandhi, however, was determined to end CP:d- inspired instability in West Bengal �the 1972 elections were the fourth in five years �and install a government responsive to her programs. This determination amounted to a resolve to destroy the CPM as an effective political force. In order to insure victory, the Congress entered into a formal written electoral agreement with the CPI �the first time in India iistory that a written agreement bound political parties *called the Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA). The election took place amid election irregularities, political killings and gangsterism �the way politics is usually played in West Bengal. The PDA proved its ability to meet and better the Marxists at political violence. Pro -PDA "goondas" (goons) reportedly harrassed CPM candidates, intimidated voters, and tampered with ballots. Additionally, Mrs. Gandhi exploited her emotion charged appeal as liberator of Bangladesh. When the dust had settled, the CPM was a heavy loser. Even CPM leader Jyoti Basu lost by a huge number of votes in his own constituency to a CPI adversary. The CPM's task of rebuilding its strength in strategically important West Bengal to pre election levels could be severely hampered by Mrs. Gandhi's apparent determination never to willingly relinquish control. The CPM has followed a fairly pragmatic policy over the years, more influenced by the rapidly changing Indian political situation than by dogmatic ideological considerations. The party has always recruited selectively, preferring to keep a low, active membership �about 107,000 claimed in 1972 �in order to maintain strict organizational control. From its inception, the CPM has been burdened with severe intraparty friction over the use of parliamentary versus revolutionary methods. The success scored in the 1967 elections actually strained party unity to the breaking point by Touching off a fresh round of debate on this issue. Most of the revolutionary extremists were either purged or had pulled out of the party to form parallel units in some of the states. In fact, prior to 1972 little distinguished the. CPM from the CPI in terms of immediate tactics, although the CPM, unlike the CPI, continued to tout violent revolution, abandonment of the constitution, and "mass struggle" outside the parliamentary process as part of its longer range strategy. Ironically, the party has continually participated in the democratic political processes it seeks to destroy, especially in Kerala and West Bengal where it led coalition governments. Prior to the imposition of President's Rule in West Bengal in late June 1971, it held the largest number of seats in the legislature. However, significant numbers of CPM cadres apparently began to go underground prior to the state assembly elections in anticipation of electoral defeats in 1972. Additionally, there apparently had been considerable agitation within the party to employ more revolutionary methods. Following the 1972 state assembly elections, the CPM boycotted both the West Bengal assembly and the by- elections held in two West Bengal districts, charging election irregularities. By early 1973, the CPM had not yet abandoned the parliamentary process, but there was much debate over the direction the party should take and the methods it should employ. While the CPM has lost its former level of political power, its leaders probably believe that a low profile, including legal politi �I activities in legislatures, labor organizations, and front organizations, would better serve party interests than going underground or taking a more violent approach. Some nominal concessions may have to be made to more radical elements, however, and the party might have to seek support from the Maoists, who form a third group within the Indian Communist movement. In May 1969, some revolution- minded defectors from the CPM announced the formation of another Indian Communist Party, the Communist Party of India /Marxist- Leninist (CPI /M -L). CPI /M -L mem- bers are known as "Naxalites," a name derived from a region in West Bengal where they led an abortive guerrilla and terrorist uprising in 1967. The CPI /M -L castigates both of the older Indian Communist parties for trying to achieve power within India's constitutional system. It plans to prepare for revolutionary guerrilla activities along Maoist lines; favors stirring. up peasant and tribal revolts rather than r: 33 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 V trouble in the cities; and permits participation in mass movements only for the purpose of sustaining tension and recruiting new members. Many of the extremists were previously joined loosely in a national coordinating committee, but this organization was unable to provide cohesion for the disparate extremist groups that had proliferated within the individual states. The CPI /M -L has continually faced the same problem. In early 1973, ideological and organizational differences were so deep that no agreement could be reached on any concerted course of action. India also has a number of mini Marxist parties, including among others the Forward Bloc, the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the Peasants and Workers Party, that are primarily splinter or front groups with ultimate aims similar to those of the CPI /M -L. Recent attempts to unify Communist extremist groups, particularly in Kerala have failed. The CPI /M -L has shown some willingness to take others into its organization but has refused to compromise its ideology or leadership. The major point of contention within the CPI /M -L and among extremist groups has been whether to engage in guerrilla action immediately or to build a stronger guerrilla organization for action in the future. Disorganization, defections, and repression �as the result of Mrs. Gandhi's desire to end extremism in India� threaten all such groups with extinction. g. Other parties Numerous other parties dot the political landscape in India, most of which operate almost exclusively within individual states or regions and many of which are based on linguistic, religious, caste and other social distinctions. A few have achieved considerable success within their restricted localities and will probably continue to play an important role in local Indian politics on selective issues, but they face a period of reduced participation and influence in state governments following the return of Congress Party political domination. Despite their persistence in Indian politics, other parties have tended to disappear as a charismatic leader dies, or as a primary goal is either achieved or co -opted by a national party. (1) Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam �The largest and most influential of the regional parties is the Dravida Mun. tetra Kazhagam (Dravidian Progressive Feder- ation �DMK) which is based essentially on regional loyalties of the Tamil- speaking people of southern India, chiefly in the state of Tamil Nadu. Appealing to the Tamils' long- standing resentment of what they regard as high -caste Brahman domination and north 34 Indian discrimination, the DMK stands against the imposition of Hindi as the sole official working language of the central government and is strongly anti- Brahman and anti north. The party has an enthusiastic following among urban poor, both rural poor and landowning castes, and youth and students, and has been growing steadily since its inception in 1941). The DMK contested the 1967 general election in coalition with several other parties of various ideological stripes. To its surprise, it routed the Congress from its former stronghold in Tamil Nadu. The party's successes carried over to the national level where the DMK Lok Sabha delegation, entirely from Tamil Nadu, became the fourth largest, with more members than either of the two Communist parties or the two socialist parties. Since then the DMK, faced for the first time with the practical problems of governing a state and of having to compromise some of its principles while maintaining the zeal of its following, has had remarkable success. The DMK overcame a leadership struggle occasioned by the death of its popular founder leader, C. N. Annadurai, in 1969. In New Delhi, it allied with Mrs. Gandhi's minority government late that year and won favors in return, particularly Congress' pledge not to make an all -out effort in Tamil Nadu in the 1971 elections. In what turned out to be a masterful political maneuver, party leader and Chief Minister, M. Karunanidhi, against the wishes of Mrs. Gandhi, insisted on holding both Lok Sabha and state assembly elections simultaneously. By agreement, Congress refrained from contesting any assembly seat as a quid pro quo for DMK support for Congress candidates in nine selected Lok Sabha constituencies. As further insurance, the DMK allied with several minor parties as it had in 1967, but extreme rightists and leftists remained outside. Impressive as the 1967 victory had been, it paled in comparison with 1971. The DMK gained 183 of 234 state assembly seats (DMK allies won 26 more) and 23 of 39 Lok Sabha seats. The magnitude of the state pries indicated that the party could have won on its own. An increased confidence diminished the DMK's feeling of indebtedness to allies, and led to a break with Congress in February 1972. In late 1972, M. G. Ramachandram, a popular film star and treasurer of the DMK, left the party to form a splinter group, the Anna -DMK, so named in honor of the DMK's founder, Annadurai. The very popular DMK posed a formidable regional challenge to Mrs. Gandhi's all -India supremacy. The party has traditionally espoused liberal causes and has APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 t: M 6 r no need to join the Congress' "progressive" bandwagon. It apparently has no national ambi- tions� indeed its pre -1971 national leverage is gone and will likely continue to espouse regional themes, especially calls for greater autonomy. Although Mrs. Gandhi may attempt to maneuver the DMK out of its commanding position, it would be very difficult to loosen the DMK's hold on its constituency, and any concerted attempt to compete with or to wrest control from the DMK could prove counterproductive. (2) Shiromani Akali Dal �In the Punjab, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Army of the Servants of God) claims to speak for the state's Sikh religious community. A 10 -year campaign by the Akali Dal for a Punjabi- speak state culminated in the 1966 partition of the state in such a way that the Sikhs now comprise a slight majority in the reconstituted Punjab. The new Punjab's voters showed no overwhelming gratitude in the 1967 elections, and the splintered Akali Dal won less than a quarter of the state assembly seats. The Congress Party, however, failed to gain a majority of assembly seats and as a result the Akalis were able to join an ill -fated anti Congress coalition. After a spell of "President's Rule" following the collapse of representative government in the Punjab, new state assembly elections were held in February 1969. The Congress Party was again unable to get a majority and, although the now united Akalis did not do as well as they had expected, the Akali Dal did emerge at the head of a new coalition state government. Despite leading the Punjab government prior to the 1971 Lok Sabha elections and receiving almost one -third of the popular vote, the party won only one out of 13 seats. Akali representatives in the Punjab assembly deserted to the Congress Party, causing the government's fall and the institution of "President's Rule." In the 1972 state assembly elections the party repeated its mediocre 1967 performance; Congress won a solid majority and was to form a government. The Akali Dal has never been a power outside the Punjab. Although the party has ample funds from the Sikh religious community, unless its members can cease bickering and unite behind a secular program which can appeal to a wider electorate, the Akali Dal could decline even further. (3) Bharatiya Kranti Dal �The initial success of a number of dissident groups which broke away from the Congress Party in early February 1967 encouraged some of their leaders to launch a new all -India party, the Bharatiya Kranti Dal (Indian Revolutionary Party �BKD) in May of that year. The BKD, made up of separate organization:, formed as a result of local p.:rsona! and caste -based conflicts, lacks any real cohesion and is little more than a loose confederation of semiautonomous rebel Congress groups. The most successful BKD unit, that in Uttar Pradesh, lost nine of its 10 seats in the 1971 Lok Sabha poll, including that of its popular leader Charan Singh. BKD leaders have apparently recognized that the party lacks the resources to compete on a national scale and have begun to concentrate efforts in selected local areas where major parties are not well entrenched. Significant numbers of BKD politicians in Uttar Pradesh have been defecting to the Congress Party. Continued large -scale defections would further reduce the BKD's political strength, perhaps beyond recovery. (4) Communal parties �A number of small communal parties thrive in India, some of which are important in local politics but none of which has significant influence on the national level. One of the better known of these is the Muslim League, which was founded in 1906 and agitated successfully for the creation of a separate state of Pakistan in 1947. Today, the Muslim League's remnants in India survive as a significant political force only in northern Kerala and Bombay. Although anti Marxist, the Muslim League opportunistically joined the CPM- dominated electoral front that fought the 1967 election in Kerala and later joined in the coalition government that this group formed; it also joined the CPI -led coalitions in 1969 and 1970. The Muslim League participated in the last coalition in West Bengal� before the initiation of "President's Rule" in June 1971 �but had very little strength in comparison to the other parties there. The Muslim League won two of Kerala's 19 seats in the 1971 Lok Sabha elections. The M uslims have not been successful in forming an all -India organization, although efforts have been made to organize a national Muslim group which might establish a consensus on political and practical matters. Although the Muslim League contested the 1972 state elections, seeking adjustments where it could in order to gain strength, its victories were almost negligible. The Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha (Greater India Hindu Assembly), a rabidly communalist party, was formerly a major rival to the Jana Sangh but has faded considerably since the mid- 1950's. The Republican Party of India, which seeks to become the political voice of the "scheduled castes," i.e., untouchables and other deprived groups, is of marginal importance, although it does exert some influence in a few areas, such as Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. The Telengana Praia Samiti (TPS) was formed by separatists from the Telengana region of Andhra Pradesh who rebelled against the Congress Party's 35 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 R s state unit which opposed any division of the state. The TPS contested the 1971 Lok Sabha elections, won 14% of the Andhra Pradesh vote, and secured 10 seats. Due to Mrs. Gandhi's astute political maneuvering in 1971, however, the Telengana separatist issue was largely defused, with almost all TPS leaders reintegrated into the Congress and supporting the Prime Minister. Former TFS members in the Andhra Pradesh Congress Party, however, will likely press for special measures for Telenganans in order to allay charges of discrimination against Telenganans in the distribation of govemmei. .it jobs and development resources, an issue which is still alive and a source of popular dissatisfaction. The Supreme Court's review and approval in later 1972 of the "Mulki Rules" rules under which Telenganans are favored for low -level state jobs �led to an upsurge of violence among coastal Andhrans, many of whom seek bifurcation of the state. Because of growing disaffection and revival of the demand for a separate Telengana state, Andhra Fradesh was put under "President's Rule." Talks on the state's future were underway in early 1973, but the outcome is still not clear. The Congress Party has suffered heavy although probably only temporary� losses over the bifurcation issue. Many other caste and communal organizations tend to take on aspects of political parties, especially when their direct parochial interests are threatened and when elections are held. (5) The Senas �Since the 1967 elections more than 60 militant and chauvinistic organizatio? is styling themselves as senas have proliferated in Inc: Most of the senas claim to be nonviolent, although the Hindi word "sena," meaning organization or army, includes a sense of militancy. The tivities of these organizations have frequently been marked by violence, particularly since the causes with which they are involved are usually laden with emotion. At least one of the senas, the Shiv Sena of Bombay, has gradually taken on the trappings of a political party, and most of the others are performing essentially political functions in expressing special regional and local discontent. The Shiv Sena unsuccessfully ran five candidates in the 1971 Lok Sabha elections but retained a position as a local party when its candidate was elected mayor of Bombay in April J W.I. Although it only won one of Maharashtra's 270 state assembly seats in 1972, the party's core strength in Bombay and its voice in politics there were reinforced when it retained 35 of its 41 seats in the 140 member Bombay Municipal Corporation elections. In early 1973, it improved its position to 39 seats and ranked second in number to the Congress Party. Although the party has shown strength among younger Maharashtrians, who 36 presumably are taken with its commitment to find jobs for Maharashtrians, its influence outside of Bombay is negligible. 3. Electoral system (U /OU) Supervision and control of all elections and related matters are vested in a nonpartisan, independent Election Commission, appointed by the President of India, with membership subject to parliamentary approval. There is one general voters' list for each parliamentary or state constituency, and no person is denied the franchise solely because of religion, race, caste, or sex. Electoral rolls are revised before each general election and before each by- election in a constituency. Elections to the lower house of the national Parliament and the state legislative assemblies are by adult suffrage, all citizens 21 years of age or over being eligible to vote. General elections are held every 5 years, but by- elections may be held whenever necessary. The number of parliamentary seats allocated to each state is reviewed and readjusted after every decennial census. A similar provision applies to state legislative assemblies. The entire country is divided into a number of territorial divisions for electoral purposes called constituencies. While each constituency elects a representative to the state legislative assembly, five or more state assembly constituencies are grouped together to form a parliamentary constituency. A 1961 law stipulates that all candidates are to run from single member constituencies. Candidates for the national Parliament need not be residents of the state in which they run. State assembly candidates must be state residents. Easily recognizable voting symbols for each candidate and his party are used to overcome the high illiteracy rate among voters. Much electoral campaigning consists of familiarizing voters with the symbols and identifying these with the party. While established parties may reserve symbols, new parties may obtain symbols by applying to the Election Commission. All five general elections have been r. itively peaceful. Voting in some states is spread over several days because of transpot,ation difficulties and the limited availability of election officials. Polling booths are located generally so that no voter has to travel more than 3 miles to vote. The polling stations are manned by civil service personnel acting as agents for the Election Commission. Poll watchers may be assigned by interested parties. A voter may cast his ballot only at the polling place assigned to him. An indelible ink mark is applied to the forefinger of each 3 1 4 0 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 a voter to prevent double voting. The voting is secret a and the voter is required to put a mark with an inked y rubber stamp next to a candidate's name or symbol on a ballot. He then folds and inserts the ballot in a sealed ballot box under the scrutiny of the presiding officer. The election machinery appears to operate a honestly; charges of malfeasance on the part of t election officials are rare. Most parties indulge in vote s buying during election campaigns, but this practice appears to be geared exclusively toward influencing the voter before he enters the polling station. In May 1969 Y. B. Chavan, then Minister of Home Affairs, announced in the Lok Sabha that an Intelligence Bureau investigation revealed tha' 'there is reason to think that funds obtained from foreign sources were used in the last general election." Despite charges of both Western and Communist meddling, no firm evidence exists of foreign interference. Replying to a parliamentary question in April 1971, Deputy Minister of External Affairs Surendra Pal Singh exonerated Soviet and other diplomatic missions from charges of interfering in the 1971 Lok Sabha elections. A limit is prescribed on election expenses and all candidates, successful or not, must file a statement of expenses with the district election officer within 30 days after election results are declared. To discourage frivolous nominations, candidates are required to post a specified amount with authorities which is refundable only upon securing one -sixth of the valid votes in the constituency. The verdict of the voters has been accepted nearly always with good grace by both the Congress Party and its opponents. In the state where the Congress Party could not form a government, the party has allowed opposition coalitions to take control. The electorate which numbered 173 mi?iion in 1952 had grown to 271.8 million by March 1971. In the 1971 parliamentary elections, 145.8 million voters, or 54% of the qualified electorate, actually cast valid votes. Voter participation appears to be greatest at the village level, where often virtually all adults vote in local elections; it is somewhat less for state elections or for candidates to the national Parliament. D. National policies 1. Domestic (U /OU) The Indian Government since independence has been strongly committed to political, economic, and social development within the context of parliamen- tary democracy. These broad goals have been most vigorously promoted and supported by the propor- tionately small, Westernized, and educated elite. The implementation of specific programs related to these goals has generated considerably less enthusiasm, L owever, from the still largely tradition- oriented rural masses. To turn their goals into reality, many of the top decisionmakers and opinion molders have been trying for many years to eradicate traditional behavior patterns in favor of more modern values and attitudes that can support their Westernized concepts of what a modern Indian state should be. This effort at social engineering has not been outstandingly successful, and often it is characterized by a large gap between what the government claims it has accomplished through legislation of its objectives and what has actually occurred in the process of implementation. In some areas where national policy runs directly counter to deeply held local convictions and vested interests, the national elite has not placed overwhelming priorities on its implementation. Such items as land reform and the abolition of untouchability are prominent examples of unenforceable and largely unenforced legislation. In other areas where national policies are congruent with local interests, programs have been successful, but not always in the way originally envisaged. Community development, for instance, was started as a production- oriented program but actually evolved into a social benefit program for the privileged of the rural communities. The Indian Government for over two decades has been attempting to create an integrated national community. The first essential step was to forge territorial unity. By September 1948, with the exception of the territory of Jammu and Kashmir which is still in dispute with Pakistan, over 560 semiautonomous princely states of British India were successfully incorporated into the independent Indian Union through cajolery, financial inducements, political pressure, and in two instances by armed "police action." The five small French enclaves were absorbed peacefully on a de facto basis by agreements reached between 1952 and 1956, though de jure ratific: of the agreement by the French Assembly was delayed until 1962. The three small Portuguese territories were taken by force, beginning with portions of Damao (now Daman) and Diu in 1954, and concluding with Goa and the remainder of Damao and Diu in December 1961. The small, strategic Himalayan mountain kingdom of Sikkim came under Indian suzerainty by treaty in December 1950, after that country's ruler requested the Indian Government to send troops to help quell popular unrest. Sikkim is now an Indian protectorate with no independent 37 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 foreign or defense policy and with extensive Indian involvement in its administration. Neighboring Bhutan remains an independent kingdom, but it is bound by an August 1949 treaty to be "guided" by the advice of India in the conduci of its foreign policy. The Indian Government is heavily involved in developing Bhutan's economy and is prepared to defend this small Himalayan country in case of attack by China. Having achieved nearly complete territorial unity, the Indian Government has turned to the even more complex and difficult task of forging a sense of national identity and loyalty. The bureaucracy has been greatly expanded over the years, and it has taken on an increasing range of public services very largely programed to replace traditional, religious, and familial ties with loyalty to secular oriented institutions. The extension of regularized legal norms, the increased density of police posts, and the spread of the road system are all part of this pattern, as are the more obvious symbols of nation building in the economic sphere. Paradoxically, however, while the government refuses to accept local rivals for authority, the democratic system tends nevertheless to give power to local leaders who sometimes fail to inspect the national bureaucracy and thereby perpetuate the historic pluralism of authority in the country. Parochial authority is being eroded in many areas, but traditional beliefs die slowly since they are central to the individual's identity. New roles can be created and filled much easier than old identities, and beliefs can be changed to support the nation -state concept that the Western influenced elites are trying so hard to create. From the beginning, the government has vigorously tried to instill a sense of national identity in the people of India, and high officials frequently rail against the evils of regionalism and communalism. They are highly aware that India as a nation is an artificial concept, evolved during the independence struggle, and is yet to be fully achieved. In June 1968, after a 6- year hiatus, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi revived the National Integration Council in an effort to achieve fuller integration of India's multicultural and multilingual society and to examine the major impediments to this end. There had been a marked upsurge of communal violence and regional chauvinism after the 1967 general election, and it was felt that there was a need to focus attention on these serious problems in a broader context than that of the continuing stream of ad hoc measures, gestures, and recriminations. Mrs. Gandhi set the government's policy line and expressed the council's consensus in 38 stressing the need for "purposeful action" against communalism, regionalism, and lack of equal opportunity, the main impediments to genuine national integration. Having consolidated her power following the 1971 and 1972 election victories, Mrs. Gandhi has cautiously begun to attempt needed reforms. By mid 1972 the most notable endeavor was the Indian Government's effort to reduce ceilings on land holdings. Land ceiling legislation, a prerogative of the states, has been in force in India for years, but it has been circumvented by a variety of legal and illegal means. As a key to meaningful socioeconomic change in India, land reform was one of Mrs. Gandhi's most fervent pledges in the elections and has become a significant test of her political credibility and performance. While the trend toward achieving other reform measures has been growing, strong opposition from those who favor the status quo is likely to inhibit the pace of change in land policies. Because of the effects of the drought and rapidly rising food prices, in late 1972 the government asked the state governments to take over the wholesale trade in foodgrains in 1973. This massive program, designed to keep foodgrain prices within reasonable limits, will test the political will of the Congress Party and the administrative capabilities of the bureaucracy to the fullest. Most state chief ministers tacitly oppose this takeover. Limiting India's massive population remains a critical issue for Indian leaders. Programs to raise living standards and the concomitant problems involved with resource allocation have been and will continue to be conditioned by the government's ability to deal with this problem. Family planning has been an integral part of developmental plans since 1951, but it was not until 1964 that comprehensive program was launched. The government continues to offer incentives for adopting birth control techniques, and has expanded its family planning services, including information programs and clinics. In April 1972 a comprehensive Termination of Pregnancy bill, which legalized abortion, became effective. Indian leaders realize that, as health measures become more effective and life expectancy is improved, checking population growth, becomes an even more crucial problem. Recognizing the danger of a letdown in the population control effort, the government is working to develop a more effective population policy to deal with the problem. (See chapter on The Society, Section C, Population) The Congress Party governments have always been deeply committed to doing something constructive i APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 'q� 7 r about India's staggering problems of population, poverty, inequality, hunger, disease, and ignorance. Their efforts, which in many areas have fallen short of the needs, have been mainly channeled into a series of comprehensive 5 -year development plans, the fourth of which was launched in April 1969. The strong socialist strain in the Congress ideology has led to the public ownership of a considerable number of key industries and to a reluctance to use the free market mechanism as an instrument of economic policy. Congress Party socialism, however, is not doctrinaire and has a considerable degree of pragmatism that generally makes an allowance for political and economic realities and provides for considerable leeway in the making of specific policies. Thus, the earlier heavy emphasis on building up the heavy industrial sector has largely shifted to increasing agricultural production, and checking the population explosion. The Fourth Five Year Plan (I April 1969 -31 March 1974) reflects the Indian Government's latest orientation in development policy. The Planning Commission took good advantage of a 3 -year hiatus (1966 -68) in 5 -year planning to make a fundamental reassessment of the economy's capabilities and requirements after 15 years of planned development effort. The most striking difference from past plans and performance is the increasing attention to agricultural development programs and to reducing dependence on external aid and deficit financing. The redirection of effort and realignment of priorities was most clearly seen in the increased attention given to raising food production to the level of self- sufficiency. Other significant changes in comparison with earlier development planning in India were a curtailment of public sector investment in industry and mining, and within this sector, a deemphasis on heavy engineering and coal, accompanied by sharply increased investments in fertilizer production and nonferrous metals, and greatly increased attention to newl-/ recognized needs for family planning, improved nutrition, and storage facilities for agricultural products. In general, the plan, which aims "to step up the tempo of activity to the extent compatible with maintaining stability and progress toward self sufficiency" has been pragmatic and fairly realistic. The mid-term Appraisal of India's Fourth Five Year Plan, a government report released in mid -1971, indicated that the plan had thus far achieved mixed results. Overall growth rates for the agricultural, defense, and public administration sectors as well as some other sectors of the national product were satisfactory. In contrast, the overall performance of industry was unsatisfactory, due largely to the expected failure to achieve the plarmed levels of production. Despite overall growth of agriculture, it too was expected to achieve lower outputs than had been planned. Accordingly, many goals were revised downward. Despite shortcomings of the plan, Indian leaders have shown a better understanding of their economy and have continued a pragmatic approach designed to break bottlenecks and to achieve realistic goals, particularly in industrial growth. The economy made modest progress in 1971, despite the influx of about 10 million Bengala refugees and the war with Pakistan. While there had been some previous grounds for optimism in New Delhi, the annual Government of India Economic Survey for FY1972 -73 reported that overall growth of the Indian economy has been unsatisfactory since 1971. Issued in February 1973, this survey was generally more pessimistic than the earlier mid -1972 appraisal. The poor economic performance was attributed to the shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from the 1972 drought. 2. Foreign Since independence the basic tenet of Indian foreign policy has been nonalignment, an ambiguous term that the Indians have continuously redefined to meet the changing requirements of the country's foreign policy. As originally developed and expanded by Jawaharlal Nehru, nonalignment involved staying scrupulously aloof from the "cold war" and building a "third force" grouping of Afro -Asian states that could serve as a bridge between the Communist and Western power blocs. It involved considerable international moralizing at the United Nations and in other international k rums, and it included the dominant themes of neutialism, anti imperialism, and peaceful coexistence. India was suspicious of most Western policies, believing them in one way or another to be aimed at regaining a foothold in South Asia or at retaining power in Southeast Asia, the Far East, and Africa. Leadership of the Afro -Asian states was actively pursued, and China was approached as a brother Asian state with which peaceful coexistence was desirable and possible. The dominant aims were to create an atmosphere of world peace in which India could devote its energies to achieving self- sustaining economic development and to secure a place in world affairs for India, a goal desired for its own sake, apart from any relationship it might have with economic development. (U /OU Nonalignment is still the publicly proclaimed cornerstone of Indian foreign policy, but in the 1970's 39 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 it has come to have quite a different meaning in several important contexts. A subtle redirection of the concept has evolved as a result of the Indian leaders' appreciation of the changing nature of world conditions and international relations as well as of the increasingly more complex domestic economic and security situation. Mrs. Gandhi's pragmatic style and guiding influence have increasingly become the bench marks for action. Faced with two hostile neighbors� Pakistan and China �and preoccupied with serious social and economic problems at home, Indian policymakers for years assiduously sought a balanced relationship with the Soviet Union and the United States that could maximize diplomatic, economic, and military support from both superpowers. This balance was upset by deterioration of relations with the United States in 1971 resulting from the events of the Indo- Pakistani war. Moreover, by 1972 India had developed a greater sense of self confidence, and a go- it- alone attitude had become pervasive in foreign policy considerations. Achieving self reliance by 1979, has become an important goal. India currently defines self- reliance as "zero net foreign aid," a concept that assumes India will continue to receive foreign aid to cover debt repayments. According to Mrs. Gandhi, nonalignment has come to mean the pursuit of national interests in total freedom from outside interference. The new view implies that cooperation with any nation is possible as it becomes necessary and clearly alters the concept of neutrality that nonalignment formerly suggested. Mrs. Gandhi and most Indians still retain a strong emotional and intellectual dedication to the old concept, at least in the abstract. Although new decisions continue to be clothed in the garment of nonalignment, the term has been redefined to fit into the circumstances of the 1970's. Indian policymakers still regard themselves as spokesmen for the developing countries, although the demonstrated lack of tangible benefits from wooing Afro -Asian states resulted in a decline of interest in this kind of activity following Nehru's death in 1964. Indian policymakers today believe that they can still follow a middle course, albeit more involved and active than that followed in recent years, which will serve to convince the big powers that they can no longer exert pressure on smaller countries. (C) The Indians have come to realize that the Soviet Union and the United States will always pursue their own changing interests and that these will not necessarily coincide with what India perceives to be in its vital interest. This was evident, for ins* ince, when India opposed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty essentially on the grounds that signature was 40 detrimental to its long -range security interests �and for the first time found itself on the side opposite both superpowers. (U /OU) India favors, at least in principle, worldwide nuclear disarmament and an effective ban on all nuclear testing. The government has declined to sign the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, however, as it is concerned about the Chinese nuclear testing program and Peking's refusal to sign the treaty. India has continued a program of nuclear development. Although India possesses the technical capability of testing a crude nuclear device within a short period after the decision to do so, it has not yet detonated a nuclear device, apparently preferring to keep its options open for the future. India probably sees its ultimate defense against a potential Chinese nuclear threat as resting primarily on its ability to gain the support of both the U.S.S.R. and the United States, and it has thus far relied on developing conventional capabilities. There has been considerable public discussion of developing a nuclear capability, but security considerations and the very high cost of an effective nuclear deterrent, including a delivery system, are strong inhibiting factors. The Indians are relatively advanced in the development of atomic energy for peaceful purposes, however, and under the aegis of their Atomic Energy Commission have ventured into applications of nuclear power to such fields as agriculture, biology, industry and medicine. Ir addition to an advanced atomic energy program, India has an active space research program and hopes to develop a domestic satellite launcher by 1976. (S) India's military victory over Pakistan in 1971 and its emergence as the dominant power on the subcontinent has revived the ebullience and self assurance of the Nehru period. Mrs. Gandhi pledged in early 1972 to make India strong enough to influence world events and to shape a foreign policy which would accomplish that goal. The confidence on which such a promise was based reflected a new -found nationalism, possibly tinged with xenophobia, and at the same time demonstrated the Indian leaders' decreasing tolerance of outside direction. The Indians are increasingly sensitive about recognition and acceptance of what they believe to be their new role in regional and international affairs, a role commensurate with India's size and potential. Indian leaders have shown a growing ability to resist pressures from the big powers, which appear to them as impediments to achieving their objectives or slurs on their self- respect. Despite the Soviet- Indian Friendship Treaty of 1971, India has indicated that it will not be the camp follower of any power and has apparently disagreed with the Soviets L APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 'yM!g1 7.�, t M. fr141� w- rw. y!* wp TMP' 71g.'.. r,+., e.-. .TM+f'o`RfY.r;S...n.ePK �giia!W rtvMtr.. mn7 �:.!L.n.. le! aM* r'+.^ sY! rT� m" Le� qN"^ n. ri. c%+ TigR! SIAe'^ i; Y d77V1 't:..M'1't4!HkNF!1!rl!'' Y 4 over policies affecting its primacy in the Indian Occan area and its relationship with Bangladesh. Indeed, New Delhi has shown it growing interest in increasing its influence in Asia and in concluding bilateral or multilateral treaties with other Asian nations. (U /OU) a. Indo- Pakistani relations (C) India's relations with neighboring Pakistan have been consistently antagonistic since these two achieved independence in 1947. In the months following the December 1971 Indo Pakistani war, however, both governments seemed sincerely determined, for the first time, to turn their embittered history of confrontation in the direction of lasting peace and friendship. Although efforts to mach a modus vtvendi hogged down, leaders of both countries remained optimistic that positive results csauld eventually be achieved. Following the December war, the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir, historically a major point of contention, has been defused as a burning issue because of India's clear military superiority and Pakistan's apparent agreement to solve outstanding disputes by peaceful means. A final settlement of the Kashmir issue, however, is still crucial to peace and stability in the subcontinent. The dispute, whose roots go deep into the turbulent political and communal history of the Indian subcontinent, is much more than a normal territorial dispute over a strategic area. The partition of India in August 1947, intended to ease traditional Hindu- Muslim tensions by creating a Hindu India and a Muslim Pakistan, acted instead to perpetuate this basic problem. Immediately after partition, the mass migrations of Hindu and Muslim minorities from the new countries �at least 10 million persons were involved �were accompanied by massacres on both sides of the borders that left as many as two million of the fleeing migrants dead. The sizable minorities which remained in each country, however, have often home the brunt of mob violence and discrimination stemming from the lingering animosity created by those days of terror. Under the terms of the partition agreement. Kashmir, along with 600 princely states, had the right to join either India or Pakistan. When independence came, the Hindu ruler of Kashmir delayed his decision, apparently hoping to achieve substantial autonomy. By mid October 1947, however, a revolt had broken out among the overwhelmingly Muslim population, several thousand Pathan tribesmen had invaded Kashmir from Pakistan, and a provisional Azad Kashmir (Free Kashmir) government, supported and recognized by Pakistan, had been established. The ruler acceded to India on October 26 and immediately sought assistance from New Delhi to suppress the local agitation and to expel the Pakistani invaders. The subsequent intervention by Pakistani army troops intensified the first military confrontation between newly independent India and Pakistan. When a cease -fire halted fighting in 1949, India controlled about two thirds of Jammu and Kashmir an area with a population that now numbers over 4.6 million people, of whom some 70% are Muslims. Included tinder Indian control was the highly coveted Vale of Kashmir, a level to gently rolling fertile valley some 85 miles long and 25 miles wide. Srinagar, the largest and by far the most important political and commercial center, dominates the Vale. India also controls the more densely populated (mostly by Hindus) plains to the south and about 75% of the forests �the state's most important natural resource. The remaining one -third under Pakistani control has a population of about 1.2 million and is a mountainr�us area of little economic value. The Pakistanis ha organized a part of their area of the disputed territory, called Azad Kashmir, under a separate provisional government, the "Azad Government of Jammu and Kashmir," but actually it is controlled by Islamabad. The Indian -held portion of the dispute territor, has been incorporated into the Indian union as a regular state, although constitutionally it has somewhat more autonomy than the other Indian states. As Indo- Pakistani relations deteriorated in 1964 and early 1965 due to worsening developments in Kashmir and increasing East Pakistan border incidents, an accidental encounter led to military clashes on the desolate salt marshes of the Hann of Kutch. British Prime Minister Harold Wilson prevented the conflict from spreading to general war by arranging a cease- fire and persuading both powers to submit the dispute to international arbitration. Militarily Pakistan had actually beaten India, but the hostilities only further increased frustrations on both sides over ancillary issues such as Kash. Pakistan's frustrations over its inability to wrest the Indian -held portion of the disputed territory� especially the prized Vale of Kashmir �from India through the auspices of the United Nations led to the risky decision to send infiltrators into the area in early August 1965. The ensuing 3 -week war in September 1965 quickly spread from the 1949 cease -fire line down to the established international border in the Punjab. Until the outbreak of the 1965 hostilities, economic and political relations between India and Pakistan functioned largely within the overall framework of normal diplomatic and commercial 41 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP0l- 00707R000200070032 -3 practice. Enmity, suspicion, fear, arid hostility, which had accumulated over IS years of bitter controversy about Kashmir, distorted day- to -d�ty relations, but there remained real, if diminishing, willingness to maintain those ties of trade, travel, and communica- tion that had existed since the partitioning of the subcontinent in 1947. The September war, however, destroyed virtually all these important links. 'Trade and payments came to a halt, telecommunications and postal services were suspended, property belonging to the nationals of the other country was seined, and air, rail, and road services were completely suspended. A U.N. resolution brought an end to the war in late September 1965, and in January 1966 Prime Minister Shastri and President Ayub Khan of Pakistan met under the auspices of the Soviet Union at Tashkent. Under considerable Soviet pressure, the two leaders agreed to a series of measures designed to begin the process of restoring normal relations. The list of actual Indo- Pakistani accomplishments through early 1971 concerned relatively minor issues, and in many cases represented only qualified success. In late January 1971 the hijacking and subsequent destruction of an Indian airliner in West Pakistan soured Indian relations with Pakistan but, despite an emotion charged atmosphere, both countries sought to avoid confrontation. However, the attempt that West Pakistan began on 25 March to re- establish government authority in East Pakistan �now independent Bangladesh precipitated a series of events which ultimately led to the Indo Pakistan war in December. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, India was basically concerned about two major issues in East Pakistan that New Delhi believed threatened its vital interests. Ten million refugees had crossed the border into West Bengal and other states on India's northeast frontier, creating an unacceptable burden and great domestic pressure for action. Even more important was New Delhi's fear that a radical left regime would emerge on the borders of West Bengal, traditionally India's most unstable state. Following months both of increasing border violations and Indian support of Bengalec independence fighters, a 2 -week war erupted. India emerged the victor and the dominant military power on the subcontinent. Pakistan lost some 9:3,000 military and civilian prisoners of war: about 6,000 square miles of territory along the border of India and West Pakistan; and East Pakistan, which became the new nation of Bangladesh. Indian prisoner and territorial losses were minor in comparison. 42 After several months of p. liminary sessions, Prime Minister Gandhi met in early July 1972 with Pakistani President Bhutto in Simla, India, for the first bilateral peace negotiations at the summit between India arid Pakistan since partition in 1947. Although the Simla Agreement made progress on a number of issues especially affirming what amounted to a no -war pact between India and Pakistan� little movement occurred in the following months. India's charges of Pakistani violations of the spirit of Simla �which to them implied, among other things, speedy Pakistani recognition of Bangladesh �have been met with Pakistani countercharges that India has failed to execute the letter of the agreement. Meanwhile, apart from the issues raised by the war, the basic issue of Kashmir, which has poisoned the diplomatic atmosphere in the past, remains unresolved. India has held steadfastly to its position affirming the legality of the accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India effected by the Hindu Maharajah in 1947. Since 1956 New Delhi has also maintained that it no longer considers itself bound by its agreement to conduct a plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir as called for in U.N. resolutions. The Indians assert that the demilitariza- tion of all of the territory� another element of the resolution bus never taken place and that this was to be a necessary prerequisite for a plebiscite. They also hasten to point out that five "free" state and national elections have been conducted in the Indian -held portion of the territory, giving the Kashmiris ample occasion to express their will. Actually, strong -arm tactics and legal maneuvering have governed the outcome of all five elections. Strong and growing Indian nationalist sentiment opposes any settlement with the Pakistanis that would involve compromise. Pakistan's position from the beginning has been based primarily on extending to the disputed territory the principle of religious separation underlying the 1947 partitioning of the subcontinent. Pakistanis argue that the people of the Indian -held portion, who are predominantly Muslim, should have a free opportunity to incorporate their land into Pakistan. Pakistan's argument is not altogether altruistic. If so predominant a Muslim area were to remain uncontested in the Indian union, the principle behind the original partition would be undermined. As in Ind;. no government in Pakistan could abandon entirely a strong stand on Kashmir and survive. Following Pakistan's defeat in the 1971 war, however, President Bhuttoi s options may be limited. In the peace negotiations following the hostilities in 1971 it became clear that neither side was prepared to abandon its claim, but the new cease -fire line in 2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 Kashmir that emerged from that war began to look more and more like it de facto international boundary. Indian leaders have long admitted in private that they would be willing to accept such a resolution of the dispute. The Pakistanis, of course, cannot publicly accept any such ending to their quest for Kashmir but, in the light of the results of the 196.5 and 1971 wars, they appear unable to change the status of the disputed territory by force and may decide quictl} to let the issue fade. In August 1973 one thorny issue was resolved when India and Pakistan agreed to release most of the 90,000 Pakistani prisoners of war held in detention in India since December 1971. Over the years, India's relations with Pakistan have been adversely affected by Pakistan's adherence to western military pacts �The Central Treaty Organiza- tion (LENTO) and the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) �and its relations with China. India has regarded multilateral military pacts incompatible with its own as inimical to its nonaligned position and hostile to the principles of making the subcontinent a "zone of peace." New Delhi has been deeply suspicious of Chinese i;itentions toward India, especially since the 1962 hostilities, and fears Chinese Pakistani collusion. New Delhi believes that prospects of improving Sino- Indian relations have been impeded by Pakistan's relations with Peking. Additionally, as long as the close relationship between China and Pakistan continues, India cannot discount the possibility of another Chinese military attack and has been forced to divert money and manpower which are needed elsewhere to the defense against China. b. Bangladesh (C) India is, in effect, Bangladesh's sponsor and together with the United States �one of its two leading benefactors. Following the West Pakistani crackdown on what was then East Pakistan, India's involvement with the Bengali independence movement grew steadily. As a result of its extensive military and political support, India exercised considerable control over the Bengali resistance movement. Despite continuing support, particularly economic, once the People's Republic of Bangladesh came into existence on December 16, 1971 it became increasingly clear that the degree of control inevitably had to decline and that strains would develop in the relationship. India has sought to maintain a low profile while still playing a major role in Bangladesh's rehabilitation and future. One of India's early moves was to sponsor Bangladesh for membership in the United Nations. Indian troops who had provided assistance in maintaining law and order were withdrawn from Bangladesh by early March 1972, vlith New Delhi apparently even more anxious than Dacca for the soldiers to depart. An Indian Army contingent that returned to help suppress unrest in the remote Chittagong Hills border region had left Bangladesh territory by mid -May. Some Indian military and technical advisers have remained in Bangladesh to assist in the restoration of communication and transportation facilities, but no combat units are known to be in the country. In late March 1972 the two countries concluded a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. The treaty provides for immediate consultation between the two governments if either party is threatened with attack by another country. It -also provides that neither party will enter into alliances directed against the other, that regular contacts will be maintained on major international problems affecting both, and that they will cooperate in science, culture, economics, trade and water usage. A subsequent trade agreement seeks to facilitate trade and transportation between the two countries, long obstructed by unfriendly relations with previously united Pakistan. Although Indian popularity was still high in the fall of 1972, an undercurrent of discontent flowed through Bangladesh about some aspects of its relations with India. Some Bengalees have alleged that the Indians have aggravated the new country's difficulties. Businessmen have complained that the trade apreement is weighted in India's favor, and some Bengalee leftists have excoriated India for allegedly failing to inhibit rice smuggling to India and for foisting shoddy consumer goods on Bangladesh. Many Bengalees probably fear that Indians might regain the predominant position in Bengalee commercial affairs that they held before partition in 1947. The charges of general Indian domination of the Bangladesh Government and its military forces, as well as other anti- Indian sentiments, are probably rooted more in the Muslim suspicions and antipathy against Hindus that smoulder beneath the surface than ;to any situation which has actually materialized. The teiidency among Bengalces to blame foreign powers� especially India �for the country's massive difficulties seems to have increased as problems remain unsolved and reinforce fears of future domination. New Delhi would prefer a stable Bangladesh on its eastern border, and Indian troops would probably be called upon to return to Bangladesh should events occur which Dacca's security forces could not handle. The Indians recognize, however, that Prime Minister Mujibur Rahman's ability personally to hold the 43 1 5 i APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 v government and country together in the face of severe internal pressures could be affected by their own actions. Indian leaders, therefore, have gone out of their way to avoid the appearance of excessive interference. Despite Indian sensitivity V) the domestic situation in Bangladesh and genuine efforts to allay Bengalce fears, deep seated mutual suspicions could inhibit smooth future relations. e. The Himalayan buffer states and Sr! Lanka (C) India has devoted considerable attention to its relations with neighboring Nepal. This sovereign but economically primitive and geographically com- partmented nation has strategic importance as a buffer between India and China along some 500 miles of its border with Tibet. India has extended economic and military aid to Nepal, but this has been partially offset by Chinese aid and diplomatic initiatives. The Nepalese are suspicious of both Indian and Chinese intentions but have been particularly resentful over their depen4ence on Indian trade and aid. Additionally, earlier Indian tacit support for antigovernment activities by dissident Nepalese politicians residing in India has been a source of friction. New Delhi has been fairly successful in convincing Kathmandu that India intends to exercise its predominance on the subcontinent �at least t4s -a -Ws Nepal �in a restrained and reasonable manner. At one time, India maintained intelligence gathering posts on the Tibetan border of Nepal, but at Nepalese insistence it had removed its troops from these posts by early 1971. Moreover, Indian leaders appear to regard King Birendra �who ascended the throne in January 1972 �more favorably than his autocratic father. They have assured him that they will try to increase aid, will act to prevent subversion by dissident Nepalese politicians in India, and will not permit Nepalese insurgents to operate from Indian territory. Although relations had entered a new stage of cordiality by late 1972, King Birendra was still extremely wary of India's past preference for a "democratic" or, at least, a more liberal regime in Nepal. Bhutan is a vulnerable link in India's frontier with China and, as such, poses a potential threat to Indian security which New Delhi has sought to minimize. According to the Indo Bhutanese treaty of 1949, Bhutan conducts its own foreign relations but is required to follow Irdia's advice when given. Although India has no responsibility for defending Bhutan, New Delhi considers Bhutan's irtemal security and territorial integrity essential to the defense of northern India and, accordingly, provides substantial military aid. India established the Indian Military Training Team, with a staff of several thousand, to assist in training the Bhutanese army, but this organization also could he used to stem internal disorders. Additionally, several thousand Indian troops are responsible for most of the extensive roadbuilding projects in Bhutan and presumably could be called upon in an emergency. Bhutan is almost totally dependent on India for economic assistance and developmental aid. The Bhutanese Government has been uncomfortable over the very visible Indian presence, fearing that it was risking its image of independence and running the possibility of provoking the Chinese. Relations are also somewhat easily inflamed by the fact that Bhutanese consider Indians racially and culturally inferior. Despit^ considerable resentment by some Bhutanese toward the relatively large number of Indians engaged in Bhutan's economic, administrative and military affairs� especially in the ebullient period following Bhutan's admission to the United Nations in 1971 the Bhutanese Government apparently does not feel that India threatens its special brand of sovereignty. In time, Bhutan could perceive the need to demonstrate its independence by occasionally voting differently from India in the United Nations or by pressing India on small matters related to its sovereignty. While modifications in the symbiotic relationship can be expected over the long term, relations in late 1972 were developing satisfactorily for both partners, and the King of Bhutan �who ascended the throne in July following his father's death� claimed no desire to revise the Indo- Bhutanese treaty arrangement. The small but strategically located Himalayan border state of Sikkim is closely tied to India. It became a protectorate of British India by a treaty negotiated in 1861, and this status was continued by a treaty between newly independent India and Sikkim signed in 1950. The treaty provides that Sikkim's external relations, defense, and communications are to be conducted solely by India, and it permits the placement of Indian officials in prominent positions throughout the Sikkimese Government. In exercise of its defense responsibility, India maintains about 27,000 troops in Sikkim to guard against Chinese incursions along the Sikkim -Tibet border. In May 1973, the already limited powers of Sikkim's titular ruler, Maharaja Paldem Thondup Namgyal, the Chogyal of Sikkim, were further curtailed as a result of a new agreement with India. A month earlier, India responded to the Chogyal's appeal for help in curbing civil disorders fomented by the ethnic Nepalis, 44 C 7 J APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 who constitute a majority of the population. The Nepalis have long sought democratic reforms in the government and an end to various discriminatory practices against them. New Delhi stepped in, ended the disorders, and quickly mediated a new agreement that enhances both its own position and that of the Nepalis. Although the Chogyal remains titular head of Sikkim, he retains direct control over only palace affairs and the small palace guard. Indian control over Sikkim's internal administration has been tightened by creation of an Indian "chief executive" appointed by New Delhi. He is required to seek the Chogyal's consent for decisions, except in emergencies when the situation will brook no delay. Conflicts between the Chogyal and the chief executive are to be resolved by New Delhi. The new agreement also provides for the creation of an expanded legislature, the State Council, elected every 4 years on a one -man, one -vote basis. This replaces the previous system of government that was weighted in favor of the Bhutia- Lepcha ethnic minority which supports the Chogyal. An executive council, similar to a cabinet, will be selected with Indian approval by the State Council. An independent judiciary will also be established. The new agreement should mute, at least temporarily, the Chogyal's determination to seek greater autonomy for Sikkim in its relationship with India. He has desired a revision of the 1950 treaty, membership in international organizations, and greater control over Sikkim's internal and external affairs. The Chogyal and his American -born wife (the former Hope Cooke of New York) have long resented India's role and probably will continue to complain privately of what they consider Indian meddling. Over the long run, India may face problems in controlling the Nepalis, particularly the youthful extremists who seek a Nepali- dominated government without a hereditary monarch. Trouble may also develop along communal lines, reflecting religious differences and economic disparity between the Buddhist Bhutia- Lepchas and the poorer Hindu Nepali laborers in southern Sikkim. In any event, New Delhi is unlikely to tolerate prolonged political instability and, if necessary, will use force to prevent it. India has maintained a traditionally relaxed policy toward Sri Lanka (Ceylon). The main point of contention in the past has been the Ceylonese Government's treatment of its Tamil minority descendents of south Indian laborers and merchants who migrated to Ceylon over a period of several centuries. Both governments are aware that Sri Lanka's restive 'Tamils have many sympathizers in south India. The accords reached in 1965, providing for repatriating to India the "displaced" 'Tamils and more equitable treatment of those who chose not to return, have not been implemented to the satisfaction of either country and the issue remains an irritant. Indian leaders fear the development of any insurgent movement in Sri Lanka which could create trouble in south India or give any foreign power an excuse for entering into the affairs of its southern neighbor. Indeed, New Delhi aided Colombo's efforts to suppress the 1971 insurrection by youngsters of the country's Sinhalese majority, and favors efforts to contain young Tamil extremists. India's enhanced power position in South Asia, as a consequence of the Indo Pakistani war of 1971, has heightened Ceylonese fears that India might interfere in its domestic affairs, possibly by fomenting Tamil unrest. The depth of Ceylonese suspicion of Indian intentions is shown by the concern of some Ceylonese officials over improved relations between New Delhi and Moscow. The Ceylonese apparently believe the Soviets somehow abetted the 1971 insurrection, despite a lack of concrete evidence. New Delhi has sought to allay Colombo's fears about the Indo Soviet relationship and to convince it that India intends no interference in Sri Lanka's internal affairs. d. Sino Indian relations (S) Until the outbreak of serious hostilities along the Sino- Indian border in October 1962, India had doggedly followed a policy of accommodation and conciliation toward China. Despite territorial and border problems, Nehru relied primarily on moral suasion and compromise to protect India's interests vis -a -vis the Chinese. Since the Chinese military attack in 1962, however, Sino Indian relations have been characterized by mutual animosity, periodic flareups along their long border, and little real movement toward a substantive settlement of their differences. There is, however, a growing inclination on the part of the Indian Government to normalize relations with Peking. Until the 1962 attack, India was often the chief backer of the Chinese in their efforts to gain acceptance in the international community. Despite formerly close tics with Chiang Kai -shek, India extended diplomatic relations to China in 1949 on the grounds that the Communists controlled the country and that India vas more concerned with a strong, stable, united China than with the government's ideology. India pushed for the seating of the Chinese Communists in the United Nations and was against 45 i i APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP0l- 00707R000200070032 -3 the General Assemb,y resolution branding them as aggressors in the Korean war, Nehru visited Peking and Chou En -lai several times went to India. Despite lire Indian willingness to be accommodat- ing, border problems between the two countries loomed almost from the beginning of their relationship. India formally protested when the Chinese first invaded Tibet in 1950 but settled in 1954 for a nonaggression agreement, which expressed the lofty principles of coexistence as Nehru saw them, and for a treaty virtually eliminating India's influence in Tibet. Minor boundary differences only rippled the otherwise placid waters of Sino- Indian relations until the end of 1958, when the Indians belatedly discovered that in 1956 -56 the Chinese had constructed a road through the Aksai Chin area of Ladakh without their prior knowledge. An even bigger problem arose in January 1959 when the Chinese asserted that the so- called McMahon line (Figure 8), which India claimed was the border in the North East Frontier Agency (NEFA) (now Arunachal Pradesh) was illegal. Shortly thereafter (March -May 1959) the Chinese suppressed the abortive Tibetan rebellion, but not before the Dalai Lama had fled to India, where he was given political asylum but no official recognition for his cause. Negotiations over the boundary dispute, including direct talks between Nehru and Chou En -lai in April 1960, continued inconclusively until 1962, with the Indians insisting on Chinese acceptance of the McMahon line in NEFA. The McMahon line had been worked out by the plenipotentiaries of the British Indian Government (Sir Henry McMahon), Tibet, and China in 1914 at Simla, where all three had initialed a draft convention. Later, however, the Chinese Government refused to ratify the agreement on the grounds that it was unfair and was imposed on them. The draft convention, with a map attached, was signed only by the British and by Tibetan representatives, who recognized the overlordship of the Chinese. Therefo e, the Chinese contended in 1960 -62 �and for that matter still maintain �that no central Chinese government ever recognized the McMahon line and that Tibet had no right to enter into any agreement with a foreign power. India's main argument is that the McMahon line "merely formalized the traditional and customary boundary between India and Tibet." The United States has also recognized the McMahon line. Against this background, the Chinese launched a full -scale attack on two fronts, in Ladakh and in NEFA, on 20 October 1962 and rather quickly seized 92� 93� 91' 95� .96 97� K�J�y.r.,, TIBET TIBET 0 70 to to an I Yiln 1pperwnM�1 I Q s. 26 KLOKMI 11 C. P a 1'e PASIGMAT TEJU s 28' nu.R r ,.,p,,r. P G SADIYA T` j BURMA .s� ROM IA BHUTAN RUPA� 27' �DOIMARA Road constructed try Chinese 27� Road (Indian) Chinese attack in October 1962 T E2PUR 12...� McMahon line eaeeaaaer 1960 Chinese claim line Area of difference in the Chinese riterpretion of McMahon Line Area of demilitarization, 20 kilometers on either side of the actual control, as proposed by China 92' 93� 91' 95� 96� 97� FIGURE 8. Area of Sino- Indian dispute over the McMahon line In northeastern India (C) 46 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 7 lwdi .Jrw� i h..� c�1v� ra .nrx�t...,. o.. .J...,.... much of the territory they had claimed. After giving the Indian troops a severe thrashing, the Chinese, with the oncoming winter threatening to disrupt their lines of communications and logistics, withdrew voluntarily behind the positions which They had actually controlled on 7 November 1959, calling at the same time on India to negotiate. A diplomatic impasse developed, however, since the Indians insisted that the Chinese pull back beyond the line of control as of 8 September 1962, which reflected gains India had made by that time in regaining previously lost territory in Ladakh (Figure 9). In December 1962, six nonaligned states Ceylon, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, the United Arab Republic, and Ghana �met in Colombo to seek ways of resolving the border dispute between India and China. With regard to the "Western Sector" (Ladakh), these states appealed for the withdrawal of Indian and Chinese troops to positions 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) behind the line of actual control which existed on 7 November 1959, as proposed by Chou En- lai to Nehru in November 1962, thus leaving China in control of much of the territory it had seized in late 1959. The administration of the demilitarized zone was to be bilaterally controlled by both governments through civilian checkposts. As for the "Eastern Sector" (NEFA), the Colombo conference's vague HAJI LANGAR KARAKORAM �i- I PASS .J CHIP CHAP 1 s o 0 1 SAMZUNGLING LANAK LA LEH KONGKA LA PHOBRANG "J TIBET LADAKH CHINA 1960 Chinese Claim CHANG LA Une 404 Chinese attack in October 1962 Area of demne Non, 20 kilometers on either side of the line of actual control, as proposed by China FIGURE 9. Ladakh sector of the China -India border area (C) proposals were later clarified to mean that the Indian forces would be free to move right up to the McMahon line. With regard to the "Middle Sector" (Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh), the Colombo conference requested that the status quo in this area be maintained, since there had been no hostilities there. India accepted the proposals after clarifying them sufficiently to meet its minimum demands, despite strong opposition in Parliament castigating the Colombo proposals as offensive to the country's honor and dignity. Peking's response was so conditional as to amount to virtual rejection. Apart from the Colombo proposals, Nehru suggested that India was prepared to refer the frontier disputes with China to the International Court of Justice or to impartial arbitration. Since the 1962 conflict, India's approach to China has become increasingly complex. India has maintained diplomatic relations with the Chinese, and as of mid -1973 had a charge d'affaires accredited to Peking. New Delhi consistently supported and voted in favor of granting Peking the Chinese seat in the United Nations. On the other hand, India still views Peking with deep suspicion and is convinced that China remains essentially hostile. The Indian Government's concern has been especially focused on China's virulent anti- Indian propaganda, its small scale material support to dissident tribal elements in strategic northeastern India, and on what it cons' 'ers to be Sino- Pakistani collusion against India. New Delhi is also apprehensive about the Maoist bent of some Indian Communist extremist groups and the possibility of clandestine Chinese backing for them. The immediate fear of another Chinese military attack similar to that of 1962 has receded, but the government believes that it must be fully prepared for such an eventuality and continues to maintain strong forces along the Sino- Indian border. Indian leaders have apparently concluded that the bleak relationships that have existed with the Chinese since 1962 eventually must be normalized, especially in view of improving relations among the superpowers. A favorable accord with China would give India more maneuverability in its dealings with both the Soviet Union and the United States and would enhance its regional and international position. Domestic political risks� influenced by Chinese support for Pakistan during the India- Pakistan crisis of 1971 �and the lack of Chinese encouragement have inhibited the Indian Government from taking a clear initiative to improve relations with China, but Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has hinted publicly that she is 47 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA- RDP01- 00707R000200070032 -3 e. Indo- Soviet relations (S) Indo- Soviet relations, which have almost steadily improved since the early 1950's, reached an important milestone with the signing of a Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation on 9 August 1971. The treaty was concluded on the basis of mutual interests which came to the fore during the Indo- Pakistan crisis, but divergent long term goals make it uncertain whether each party can obtain the advantages it sought by formalizing the relationship. In time, fundamental differences, complicated by India's 48 almost paranoid security concerns and its dislike of power blocs, could impair the cooperative relationship which existed in mid -1973. Mutual suspicions kept Indo- Soviet relations cool in the early years after Indian independence, but in the mid- 1950's they began to improve. Nehru, who had long been sympathetic to Marxism but strongly opposed to Stalinist methods, found it easier to deal with Stalin's successors. They in turn, as the United States pursued its policy of "containment," came to recognize the advantages to be gained from a close relationship with a nonaligned India. Following the deterioration of India's relations with China and the Soviets' own rift with the Chinese in the early 1960's, Indo- Soviet relations gradually blossomed into a special relationship in which India became the keystone of Soviet policy in South Asia. Large -scale economic and military aid programs have served to lessen Indian dependence on the West and to strengthen India's lagging public sector. Moscow may have made the effort primarily because it considers India a valuable foil to the Chinese, but India's sheer size and location also weighs heavily in Soviet calculations. Moscow's views on important issues have for sometime been generally accommodated if they do not run counter to India's foreign policy interests. India, for example, abstained in 1968 on the U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Soviet military intervention in Czechoslovakia, despite a storm of protest at home and support for liberalism in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, India has continued to take an independent position on major foreign policy matters when they touch on India's special interests. Indian leaders endorsed the Soviet United States summit held in Moscow in May 1972 but, to the displeasure of Soviet officials, the Indians characterized it as limited in scope and inferred that the summit was against the interests of the small powers. The tendency of Indian officials to label both the United States and the U.S.S.R. as "big powers" is irritating to the Soviets, since the statement is usually linked with a negative assertion about great power domination of small countries. For several years India resisted Soviet urging to establish diplomatic relations with East Germany, fearing that such an act prior to the accommodation between the two Germanies might threaten the substantial amount of foreign aid received from West Germany. New Delhi also has resisted Soviet pressure to sign the nuclear non- proliferation treaty which it feels might threaten its long range security interests. 41 aL"" +_i vs 4 a