THE RECORD AND POTENTIAL OF AIR ATTACKS IN ATTAINING US OBJECTIVES IN VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78S02149R000100040015-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 23, 1998
• Sequence Number: 15
• Content Type: OUTLINE

25X1A9a q_[~
Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP78SO21 -0
-Now
Title: The Record and Potential of Air Attacks in Attaining i.
Objectives in Vietnam
P`ro eet No: 00.4771
Problem :
To assess the past performance and potential of the T33/GVN
air offensive -- Rolling Thunder -- in attaining its
objectives.
a. to reduce the ability of or increase the cost to North
Vietnam of infiltrating men and equipment into South
Vietnam.
b. to increase the political cost to North Vietnam of
continuing to support Pathet Lao and Viet Gong activi-
ties in South Vietnam.
c. to encourage the people and government of South Vietnam.
Project Outline and Assignments
e. Ob,Lectives of then CamRai n
A brief statement of the objectives, basically as stated in the
"Casualties" report and as amplified in public statements of the
President, the Secretary of State, and the Secretary of Defense.
A-etion: ONE: Due to ORR/D/T; 28 Jan 66
_he Zoe stic Su of
_ VL,(PAVN Farces
A. Total ?daily Requirements at
a. Present level of forces and combat
b. Present level of forces and escalated combat
c. Increased forces and escalated combat (upper limit, 155
battalions, engaged in combat every 3 days)
Requirements from Abroad -- under each of the situations out-
lined in II. A. with added consideration of effect of a denial
of supplies from sources within South Vietnam.
Capacity of Routes -- present and projected capacity at end 1966,
.nd estantate of all-weather capacity.
a. bind (Road and Inland Water)
1). Sea
c. Cambodia
Approved For Release 2000/05%30 :CIA-RDP78SO2149R000100040015-0
 Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000100040015-0
D. Options for Resupply
An analysis of the measures which may be taken by DRV to maintain
supply movements if the Panhandle route is successfully interdicted.
25X1A9a
Action: ORR/T/TR -- Due to ORR/D/T: ll Feb 66
Contributions -- II A: DIA -- due to RR/T/TR -- 28 Jan 66
II C: DIA -- if necessary
ONI -- (statement of confidence limits
of Market Time 24 Jan 66)
111. The Rollint; Thunder Attack
A. No. of sorties, number of targets, "operations analysis`
Bs. Factors conditioning the nature and scale of attacks,
geographic limitations or casualties, etc.
r. Present Deliverx 1.1ities of /GVN Forces (including B-52?s)
Action: ORR/R/FP - Due to ORR/D/T 11 Feb 66
contributions -- J-3 Due to ORR/R/FP 31 Jan 66
A.V. An Ass: ssment of Rolling Thunder Throti i 24 .D_~cember 1265)
A. Discussion of Sources Used; i.e., the evidence on which the
inventory of physical damage and casualties inflicted is based --
photography., pilot reports, interrogations, intercepts, etc.
B. Inventory of Physical Damage (as complete and specific as time
penults)
1. Economic
2. Military
Estimate of Casualties
1. Fixed Targets a-- Civilian and Military
2. Armed Reconnaissance ?- Civilian and Military
?L. North Vietnamese Countermeasures
1. Recuperation and Repair
2. Development of Alternative TR Routes
3. Increased flow of supplies from other Communist Countries
11. Adjustments in civilian living standards
5. Other actions to minimize effects of air attack
- 2 -
Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000100040015-0
 Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000100040015-0
(osts to Ciunist China and USSR of Additional Support to DRV
(1961 deliveries)
F. Evidence of "political" costs, i.e.., effective pressure on the
Hanoi regime .
IN, A, B and C -- RR./T/TR ---
D IA to contirbute specifics for IV,
_A, 2; IV, (, 1 and IV, tip', 2
(mi.litary casualties in each
instance; civilian casualties
since 28 Oct.) fL25 ,1, W-28 Jan
s: .ST, r -- RR/T/JsT --
Di Date to T/CST
I'ww tion
25X1A9a
Due Date to _
5 Feb 66
5 Feb 66
i'NV D, 1 and V ? Aii
Jv, Ti, 3 -- T/'fA 25X1A9a
T/IS 28 Jan
4 A.#2 Fan
p j an Jan 66
IV, E ~- T 11+ .-_ r_:c
.0 -- V1We/Vk J.
Potential of Air Attaeks as a Weak to A4hieve Rc? i under
objectives
A., Military Significance of D.RV
I. logistic lease
'. Manpower
3. Control Center for Insurgency in South Vietnam and Laos
% The Logistics Target System
An ashes. nt of the physical destruction necessary to reduce
the capacity of the DRV logistic lines of cr unication to a
point where they cannot meet VC/PAVN requirements ('requirements"
defined three ways as in II, A, above); including also an
assessment of the possibility in ary case of reaching this
degree of destruction.
1. "Choke-point" study -- rail, road and inland water
"R. Effort required (ordnance, strikes) to reduce capacity of
choke points to desired level
3. Limits of possible reduction
4. Air attack on other infiltration systems -- e.g., sea
infiltration through mining of ports
5. The Cambodian route -- its potential and vulnerability
3_
Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000100040015-0
 It
Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000100040015-0
Will of Re ;i as Target Sys o',a
1. Prim economic tarL ets
2. Control and Ctarr:nd syste,:n
3- Msnpawer -- rural vs, urb to and effect v a 4. Agriculture
5. The air effort needed to . ncb1it e 1 throuLh above
Action:
25X1A9a 25X1A9a
V,.A--
V,B--ID'?RRT-~
V, B, 1 -- BIA, 3-3
OBI/GRA -- ;on sultatioa
V, B, 2 -- B:IA, J-3
V, B, 3 -- DLA, J ?3
V, B, 4 DIA, S-3
(particularly for
mini studies)
V, B, 5=
V, C -- _
V, C, 1 -- ORR/TJ/T
V, C, 2 -- ORR/T/(QOM (teieeou )
ijatl to ` Y',
28 Jan 66
28 Jan 66
28 Jan 66
28 Jan 66
28 len 66
25X1A9a OOI (politic X1 A9a
V, G, 3 -- ORR. D A
25X1 A9a OBI GM
V, C, 4 -- R/AG --
5F::b66
5 Feb 66
5 Feb 66
City Studies) 5 Feb 66
5 Feb 66
OBI/OBA -- to con-
tribute "dike" target
study to R//AG 23 JUL 66
v, C, 4 -- T-3, j)I5X1 A9a 28 an 66
V, L -- R/
11 Feb 66
11 t^ . b 66
1.w. Feb 6C=
VI. Binary and Conclusions
Action : DD/RR and Ach./D/T 28 11eb 66
Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP78S02149R000100040015-0