NORTHERN DIVISION WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY NO. 37

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000100080004-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 21, 1999
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: October 24, 1949
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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Iml;el:l.i 'ence 5uziiery 1.0. 24 October 1949
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CD'nNTIAL
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An oN`FIMNr-at
Union of South Africa
9 Government to discuss ini.nority problem ,';ith India
nd ? 7 f 5714iii -~____.._
The pre1iri4..na;,y India-Pakistan-South. Africa conferern.ce
next month in Durban on the treatment of South Africa's Indian
minority reflects nrinariiy the Union's desire to build ra:E:)lic
i'avor abroad by observin the i1TT(% recort?:n:endat3on for srlcb a
con: erence0 But because the T_'na.on f?overru,ent has no real
zrrtention of affording its I :Dien-r'akistani minority betikesy
treatment except by rre .triation, it is doubtful that t.'?e
-onfierees will agree upon any constructive annroach to - e
base a subsequent "ormal rreetin". Where
rcb .ern uron which to
has been some sneculation that 1'akiston and nerha-ns Tndia. ~1ay
lift their boycott of South Africa ?prior to the conference
as the Union has r;ug 'e4ted, chiefly to obtain the conrercial
t d.varrta,e o again (;xrortin ; jute bags to South :Arica, b-0;.
this ,ossibi l.ity ha.; been publicly denied,, accordin to a
fl.euters re>>ort, by ~. ''s !ci ,tan For'eif'n Office srolmsman.
Tll;;fiR,I I)
10? Costello Covernnnent faces dif'icult tests in new
~aa~"""se:~ xon
Although there is c, possibility of its breaking up
on some controversial issue, particularly social w elfarc:,
Prime. , E~, e. "inter- ' 't~r Goverment"
, ,I~.nis~+ .e~ ~:ostea7.E ~ ; air,;ill
probably survive the crucial Tlariia:?ienta,?y session co.mx-
men. 26 Octobers A return of De Valera would not be a.,-,
ik;nif .pant for domestic affairs as for foreign affairs, where
."re1.anct could then be ex-?)ected to be more isolations,-,t
neutrality-minded. However, as the five parties and the
mild e-?)endent de,itties supporting the Government t;ere brought
together not by cotnr,rion policies and objectives but by Cor'i,`ion
o-Drposit ion to De Valera, it is in controversial domestic
issues that the greatest dangers for the Coverrr^ent Me. The
next Dail session will probably be dominated by such issues,
r aic ;l ft-`e ar}? r of rig e for the Opposition's favorite tactic
oJ ae,te! t ing -i o ex ?loit the divergences that have inevitably
r:d ev-e.? ore the ~~aaracioxical coalition of fla.gf?t ar.d T eft e
n's ?Gin ;
The most dangerous iss e iron the ,cavernr c f~
of view is social rolfare.~ The Lrrr..bo' Party is de- -an.ding, and
rt'i l 1L"T
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has been -promised, a codi''ieati.on anc' expansion of social
:oIf'are legislation, but the cons,erv,.tive Mina ster for ~ .n?~. te;e
is resistinC. In a background of an erected rise in the cost
of living and renewed derrita.nt~_5 for wage increases, the drive
for an expanded social ecm.l ' rity nrograrz has an especial
urgency. A failure to develop an ac ^e,itab? e pro