Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
November 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 9, 1999
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
July 29, 1955
Content Type: 
PDF icon CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2.pdf2.82 MB
raved For Release'1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 NALS PROVISIONAL .INTELLIGENCE REPORT , ELECTRIC POWER IN ~?GLAND CIA/RR PR-117 29 July 1955 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS 117 OREIGN NATI Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A00090011 .Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 WARNING This material :contains information affecting the National Defense of the United Status within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs: 793 and 794, ? the trans- mission or revelation of which in any. manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/0g9,~26~~qq ?~C?~q.-.RC~.~~~ Q1093A000900110006-2 `~, Supplementary Source- References CIA/RR PR-117 29 July 1955 WARNING THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING .THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF.THE UNITED.STA.TES WITHIN-THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18; USCf?SECS... 793 AND 791 THE .TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY office .~f Research .-.and Repasts LIMITED -: ~, ~1 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : C -RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 . CIA/RR 1~=1,7.7 ( ORR Pro~j ect -27 . x+78 ) LIMITED upplementary ,Source .References.... ELECTRIC PQWER IN POLAND Evaluations,-following the classification entry and designated "Eval.," have the following significance; Source of Information. Information Doc? - DQCUmentary 1 - Confirmed by other sources .A - Cgmpletely reliable E -Probably true B -Usually reliable 3 - Possibly true C -Fairly reliable ~- - Doubtf"u..l D -Not usually reliable 5 -Probably false E -Nat reliable F -Cannot be ,judged b -Cannot be fudged 'Documentary" xefers to original documents. of foreign governments and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff officers or information extr8cted from such documents by a staff. officer,, all of which may carry the. field evaluation."Documentary." Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing an the cited document; those designated "RFt"' are by the- author of this report. No "R.R." evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document. The source ref'eren.ces listed below constitute only those from which identifying numbers have been deleted in the Source References appendix to the report. some- of these references appear in the original report together with other references; iu~...connect3~Q~n'.wttb.' .the same -c:t~,?t~,i~n:a.. LIl~ILTED Approved For~Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 25X1A2g Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved forelease ~~~~~~/~~: ~'R~1~7 -~ 93A000900110006-2 Prm je~;ts control staff Gontr~gl Sheet Supplementary Source Refere___-- ___ CIA /RR PR -117 series N~arxiber lf~a,te of .L~ocuznent a9 July 55 ~1MITE? ~..~~~~~ Classification ~{?{~ 11 Number of Copies Gory No. .Recipient :date 1 AD /RR 11 Aug 55 Returned 2 61 St PC file c _,,~?~~.>,.~-~ ~ ~' l ~ ~ u~. ss' ~ r ~ ~~.~ 6 ~~ ~, .-:C+. Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 .. ! M ~ 3 NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT ELECTRIC POWER IN POLAND CIA~RR PR-117 (ORR Project 27.x+78) The data and conclusions contained in this report do not necessarily represent the final position of ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and subject to revision. Comments and data which may be available to the user are solicited. Office of Research and Reports NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 CONTENT'S Page Summary 1 A. General 2 B . Boundary Changes 3 II. Organization and Administrative Structure 3 III. Generation and Transmission Facilities ~+ A. Natural Resources ~+ 1. Coal . . ~+ 2. Water Power 5 B. Electric Generating Plants 6 C. Transmission Lines and Substations 8 D. Existing Concentrations 10 IV. Production and Consumption 11 A. Available Supply 11 1. Production 11 2. Exports and Imports 13 B. Consumption 1~+ 1. Pattern 1~+ 2. Controls and Restrictions 16 V . Growth 17 A. General . 17 B. Increases in Facilities 18 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T 1. New Plants and Transmission Facilities . 2. Enlargement of Existing Facilities . C . Deterrents to Growth D. Estimates of Growth through 1960 . A. Fuels and Supplies B. Manpower A. Capabilities B. Vulnerabilities . C . Intentions Appendixes Appendix A. Electric Generating Plants in Poland Appendix B. Methodology . Appendix C. Gaps in Intelligence Appendix D. Source References . . Tables 1. Installed Capacity of Electric Power Plants in Poland, 2. Production of Electric Power in Poland, 196-55 12 3. Pattern of Electric Power Consumption in Poland, 19+6 and 195 5 . 15 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S -E-C -R -E -T 4. Employment in the Electric Power Industry in Poland, June 1947 22 5. Estimated Total Employment in the Electric Power Industry in Poland, 1946-55 22 6. Electric Generating Plants in Poland, 1950 and 1955 28 7. Estimated Installed Capacity of Electric-Power Plants in Poland, 1950-55 8. Estimated Employment in the Electric Power Industry in Poland, 1946-55 42 Following Page Figure 1. Poland: Organization of the Electric Power Industry ( Chart ) 4 Figure 2. Poland: Power Administration Districts, 1951 (Map) 6 Figure 3. Poland: Electric Power Production (Chart) 12 Figure 4. Poland: Electric Generating Plant Capacity (Chart ) 18 Figure 5. Poland: Major Electric Power Generating Stations and Transmission Lines (Map) Inside Back Cover S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 cIA/RR PR-117 (ORR Project 27.478) S-E-C-R-E-T ELECTRIC POWER IN POLANI7~ Summary The industrial economy of Poland is centered around the coal mining, metallurgical, and chemical industries, all of which are large consumers of electric power. It is estimated that in 1955 these industries will consume about 66 percent of the total indus- trial consumption of electricity in Poland. Because there is no economically feasible substitute for electricity, it is evident that the electric power industry is now, and wrill continue to be, of major importance in the industrial expansion of Poland. Poland is the second largest producer of electric power in the European Satellites, outranked only by East Germany, and its share of the total electric power production in the European Satellites and in the Sino-Soviet Bloc has steadily increased since 1946. It is estimated that in 1955 the production of electric power in Poland will be 23 percent of the total European Satellite production and 7 percent of the total Sino-Soviet Bloc production. Analysis of estimates of electric power production in 1955 for Poland, the USSR, and the US indicates that the production of 17.4 billion kilowatt- hours (kwh) in Poland will be 11 percent of Soviet and 3 percent of US production. The substantial gains made and expected to be made by the indus- try are reflected in the announced production for 1954 (15.4 billion kwh) and in the estimated production for 1955 (17.4 billion kwh) and 1960 (32.3 billion kwh), which are, respectively, more than twofold and nearly fourfold that of 1949 (8.3 billion kwh). The electric power potential in Poland, in terms of coal resources, is extremely large. Coal reserves in Poland are immense and will provide an ample supply for many hundreds of years. Expansion of facilities for the production of electric power, however, is limited * The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the best judgment of ORR as of 15 MaY 1955? S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S?-E-C-R-E-T ~by dependence upon foreign techzrology, material, and equipment: Poland is capable of producing less than 20 percent of its requiremer'~ts for :heavy electrical machinery, and the industry will be dependent, upon :eore:ign sources for technical engineering aid for some years t;o come. Although it is possible that changes in the consumption of elec- tric power might be an indicator of intentions, the changes ar:~e too slow to be used as definite indicators and must be used in conjunction ,with other more substantial ind~_cators -- which can usually sr~pport themselves. I. :Introduction. As considered in this report, the electric power industry of :Poland include the generation, transmission, and distribution. of electric power for and to the ultimate consumers. The physical fa- cilities involved include all public utility power plants (municipal ,~,nd regional) and all industrial power plants, except for small, mis- cellaneous plants used .for emergency purposes, and all transmission ~~,nd distribution facilities. Although in Poland the Ministry of Power. (Ministerstwo Energetyki) is responsible for the production ~~f power-generating equipment (boilers, turbines, generators, trans- ~ormers, and auxiliary machinery), this segment is not included in -this report. Reference is made to the supply of this equipment only as it affects the planned expansion program. of the industry. The time period covered by this report is the postwar period (194E~-6o) with only brief reference to the war and prewar periods for zistorical and comparative purposes. Present-day Poland is defined as the area within the F~ostwar boundaries -- between the Oder-Neisse Rivers on the west and the ~;urzon Line on the east. Except for reference to historical data and background, this is the area covered in the report. Electric power is a keystone of modern industrial ecor.;:omy. ?Phe economical development and expansion of practically all industries S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T depend upon the supply of electricity for motive power and electra- technical processes. Many specialized industries and processes have no substitute for electric power -- for instance, various chemical and metallurgical reduction operations. The mining of coal, previously accomplished by manual, compressed air, or steam-driven operation, is now done faster and more economically with electrically powered tools. Haulage of coal in the mines, previously performed by man- power or horsepower, is now done with electric locomotives. The commercial production of aluminum is not possible without electric power, and the production of zinc and many ferrous alloys can be accomplished more economically in electric furnaces. B. Boundary Changes. The boundary changes which took place in 19+5 greatly in- creased the scope of the Polish economy. ,Although the westward shift resulted in an ultimate loss of approximately 30,000 square miles of territory, all of the eastern area, ceded to the USSR, was agrarian. The western area, on the other hand, was highly in- dustrialized and was particularly rich in coal resources. As a result of the boundary changes, there was a gain of about 50 percent in the electrical generating capacity. ~~ The loss of electric power facilities in the east was insignificant compared with the gain in the west . II. Organization and Administrative Structure. After the end of hostilities in 19+5 an organization was estab- lished to control the power economy of Poland. It was called the Central Administration for Power (Central Zarzag Energetyki -- CZE). ~ During 1952 and 1953, marked changes were made in the organizational structure.- They seem to reflect the importance which Poland attached to the electric power industry and the resul- tant desire to place all elements of the industry under a single control. To this end the Ministry of Power was established, and the Central Administration for Power, formerly subordinate to the Ministry of Heavy Industry, became subordinate to the Ministry of Power. The Central Administration for Power was strengthened to the extent of putting all industrial power plants under its complete control and retaining control of the public utilities. The ~ For serially numbered source references, see Appendix D. ~~ For an organization chart, see Figure 1, following p. 4. ?- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Ministry of Power was further enlarged by subordination of the Central Administration for the Power Generating Industry (Centralr~y Zarzod Przemyslu Energetycznego -- CZPE), formerly under the control of th+~ Ministry of the Machine Industry.* Ir.~cluded in the changes was a regrouping of the former 13 power regio~~s into 6 power districts, which generally conformed to gea- graph3.c areas rather than to county boundaries. These districts, since X951, are as follows ~: District Designation I Central II Eastern III Southern IV Lower Silesia V Western VI Northern III. GE=neration and Transmission Facilities. A. Natural Resources. Coal, the principal natural resource in Poland and a main- stay of the national economy, is in virtually unlimited reserves.. For tape most part, it is of excellent quality for steam-producing purposes. Over 90 percent of the electric power plants are coal-fi.red.~-~* ~ `Phe administrative chain of command is shown in Figure 1, ~ following p. ~+. ~ :For the district division of the electric system, see Figure ~:, following p. o'. ~~~ :For a documented breakdown of thermal electric plants and hydi?o- electric plants, see Appendix A. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 ~'" W F- ~"^ ~.L OZ oz~ z O W d ~-- O ~,do N 0..~ Z ~ d a C~ ~ ~ U Ow J W 0 a Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 The abundance and availability of high-grade hard coal,- which can be burned. more easily and effectively than brown coal, accounts for the fact that hard coal is used predominantly in thermal electric power plants. Because there are regions where brown coal is readily avail- able, however, thermal electric power plants are being built or planned for burning this low-grade coal exclusively. This permits the conservation of hard coal, not only for other important require- ments but also for export. Coal exports yield a major part of the income from foreign trade. There is a power plant planned at Turoszow, the largest brown coal producing area in Poland, and another is under construction at Konin, which is just now being developed into a major brown coal mining operation.~~ Because coal reserves are abundant in Poland, fuel supplies will not be a limiting factor in planned expansion of thermal electric power production. The potential resources of hydroelectric power in Poland are limited. There are several large rivers, but the predominantly flat terrain is a hindrance to economic development of hydroelectric power sites. The technically developable hydroelectric power resources amount to 3.65 million kilowatts (kw) of which approximately two- thirds axe in the Vistula Basin, including the Bug River, and the remainder are in the Oder Basin. ~ Only 0.6 million kw (approxi- mately one-sixth of the technically developable resources) are con- sidered economically exploitable. This, therefore, places a limit on the production of hydroelectric power, whereas there is no such limitation on thermal electric power. Poland is planning large-scale developments of hydro- electric power on the Bug and Vistula Rivers during the next Plan period (1956-60). Polish scientists and engineers are reported to have worked out hydrotechnical construction plans for the ~ The term hard coal in the European sense includes all grades of coal which in US terminology would be called anthracite or bituminous coal. Because there is no anthracite coal in Poland, the term, as used in this report, includes only the various grades of bituminous coal indigenous to Poland. The term. brown coal in European terminology includes all grades of brown coal and lignite. ~' For a documented breakdown of thermal electric plants and hydroelectric plants, see Appendix A. Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Vistula River, and it is also reported ~ that similar developments on the Bug River will be started within the Six Year Plan (1ca50-55) and. be continued into the next Plan period. The main purposa~s of these developments, however, are irrigation, flood control, a~.nd navigation. As a result of the development of streams for t]zese purposes, a limited amount of hydroelectric capacity will be~~ome available. .Although such plants have been mentioned for both the Vistula and Bug, no information on their projected size is a~railable. This expansion will only slightly change the balance between hydro- electric and thermal electric plants. Hydroelectric power p;Lant capacity was approximately 5 percent of the total in 1946, 9~ rising to ~ percent in 1950, and it is estimated that it wil;L be about 8 percent in 1955?* B. Electric Generating Plants. As a result of occupation by the USSR and the Germania and of the devastating effects of physical damage and destructio~i from military actions, output by the electric power industry of Poland was at a low level at the end of World War II. It is believed that-the majority of losses caused by damage and we,~.r were restored by the end of 1949, although a considerable portion of the total loss was not restored -- that which the USSR dismantl.eci and shipped to the USSR. For the 10-year postwar period (1946-55) the growth ~~f generating facilities has been steady and substantial. By tine end. of 1955 the estimated installed capacity (5.38 million k~~r) will be about two and one-half times that of 1946 (2.14 mi1.l;Lon kw ), and three-fourths of this increase will have been accomplished during the Six Year Plan. Because this 6-year period includes so large a part ;~f the improved situation on installed capacity, attention is call.e~i to figures on this sub~ect~ which indicate the developmental t:^ends occurring in the facilities of generating plants. A comparison of 1955 with 1950 shows that although the number of plants o:~ over 5,000-kw capacity will not have increased materially (123 plaants in 1950, 137 plants in 1955), the installed capacity of these p:Lants * Estimates are based on thermal electric and hydroeleetri!~ capaci- ties in 1946 and on figures shown in Table 6, Appendix A. ~ For plant capacity figures, see Table 6 S?*!~ary, p. 35:below. -6- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 14 16 18 2 . r6~r ~, ~ 0 22 24 _, ___ 26 r~ _~ 8 A L T / (_ -~ {f ~~ ,Kaliningrad ?Wilno $ E f{ f Gdynia ~ ' ) Danzigo ~6L~~//ice///////j6%///////~ /G!!!!!~!i{j~ 54 f ,... . o slin / (GdarisN) ~ l ~.~ (K lin) r ~ ~ 54 .- _. _,~. GDAI3SK ' ~ . - - -__. f ~ _. ___.._ _ S Z T Y N O L KOSZA IN 1. G. S, f ~ ~ ~ ~ N O R :^ ~ Yi Olsztyn ~ ,mo" ~ ~' Stattln t ~'-~i E R / SzczeciN J N ! ~ t p :I B Y G S Z C 2~' L BIA YSTOK f , - SZCZECIN Bydgoszcz /` m r ,.! ~ Bialystoko ` '~ .te '"'"/e ..7 ~ ^ ~ $w?.~ S E R N ~ C,~ `~ j $~ WARSZAWA ,BERLI ~ ZIELGNA ~ ~ E poznah v} GbRA ~ eSF".~ .` GERMA S. R. ~ U. S. ~ ARSAW V . 52 wefr . .r, N $, w y ,~ t. ~ f ~ l`v~ / 52 ergo ~ ~... ""n~... i Pr, et Z;(Zielo P Z N A N N _. Gdra) LhdE ~t .~ r ~ . o /~?L O W {~ ' ~ z ?~,.,.,?~... .~ N,.f L 6 n 2 m ` Breslau ' e Wroclaw Dresde oLublin K I E L C E cc .}~~ WRL E AWA LUBLIN L ~i jJj OLE?f ~ oKielce E R N E A S ' ppeln ~STALINO Rho Opole) ~! ~ ~ ( ,~ ~o ( r rv7 ~,J C T/ Q~ (r~~~~ tytalinogod.f.~ N t, ~ Y.....J~{~ 50 %~~~~~! '% ~l !~? ~ KrakS ~ Rzeszhw 50 CZECHOSLOVAK ~ ~K Lvov S IA RA y KC r' RZESZb`W ~~ ` \`\ c ~g~ Boundaries ore nat necessarily those ~~ ~~~ ~ F i ~ i/ lJl/ ~i re ~ For Relee '~/ w ~> a~ o ~ cad ~ (00110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Figure 3 POLAND ELECTRIC PC~~ER PRflDUCTIOI~I (Billions o~ KWN) Revised Plan Goal-19.x. Griginal Plan Goal''-18.0 ~ Estimated Achievement.-17.4-~/ Predicted. Achievement-32.3! ~' Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 The next Plan will probably be for a 5-year period to coincide with the Soviet Sixth Five Year Plan as well as with the expected Five Year Plans of other European Satellites. 33 The estimated production of electric power in Poland during the 1956-60 period is as follows-: 195 1957 1958 195y 1960 19.7 22.3 25.2 28.5 32.3 2. Exports and Imports. Exports and imports of electric power by Poland do not materially affect the available domestic supply because the net interchange -- the difference between the amounts exported and im- ported -- is very small. The difference is estimated at less than 1 percent of the national production. Data on the net interchange for selected years during the 1946-53 period are as follows; 1846 1847 19~ 1950 195.2 _ 1953 Net exports from Poland to Ozechoslovakia 91 34 80 35 ` 110 36 110 37 100 38 1l+3 39 Net imports to Poland from East Germany 40 40f N.A. 100 41 130 42 N.A. N.A. Because the figures shown represent the net interchange, they do not reflect the-total amounts of power which may flow in each direction. Even though the net interchange is but a small part of the * Based on the average annual rate of increase derived from the achieved production for the Six Year Plan, 13..2 percent. This esti- mate should be within a range of error of .plus 10 percent- and minus 5 percent. Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T national production, it is important to the supplies of certa:Cn vicinities and permits the international exchange of power in times of temporary emergency and for efficient loading of the larger plants involved. The interchanges are confined to the immediate ne~.ghbors of Poland, the USSR,. Czechoslavakia, and East Germany. Littler is :Known about the interchange with the USSR, but it is certain to be small because there are no known high-tension lines capable of transmitting large quantities of power, and there are few lower voltage lines. Similarly, there appear to be no major trans- mission lines between Poland and East Germany, but a number of :Lowei? voltage, small-capacity .lines permit enough interchange so i;hat net imports into Poland from East Germany are about equal i;o exports from Poland to Czechoslovakia. It is probable that the intex?change with Czechoslovakia will increase, not only by means of tYae existing high-tension line from Walbrzych into northwestern Czechoslovakia but also because of the completion of the 220-kv 7.ine from the jointly financed Czechoslovak-Polish plant at Dwory connecting with the Czechoslovak system at Ostrava and running-from there into central Czechoslovakia. E. Consumption. 1. Pattern. Although information is not available in sufficieni; quan- tity to construct annual consumption patterns for the principa:L cate- gories of users of electric power in Poland, it is doubtful thE~t the pattern for 19-6 and that planned for 1955 will change drasticFi,lly during the next Plan period. The pattern of electric power consumption in Poland in 19+6 and 1955 is shown in Table 3.~ The consumption pattern indicates that industry is by far t:he largest consumer of electric power. In 19+6 the largest single industrial consumer was the coal mining industry, which used al~proxi- mateltiy ~+2 percent of the total industrial consumption, followed. by the metallurgical and chemical industries, which used approximately 15 percent axed 13 percent, respectively. ~+3 This balance will be radically changed in 1955, when the planned consumption will be as follows; metallurgical, 25 percent; chemical, 23 percent; and coal m:tning, 18 percent . 4~+ * Table 3 follows on p. 15. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 3 Pattern of Electric Power Consumption in Poland 191+6 and 1955 a,. Given in terms of the percent of the gross production less system loss and plant use, which accounts for 22.6 percent of the gross production in 191+6 and 19.6 percent in 1955? b.. Based on source 1+5 c. Interpolated from source 1+6 . Consumer 181+6 ~ 1955 Industry 87.0 80.8 Domestic (street lighting, commercial, residential 9.7 12,2 Agriculture p,g 2.5 Exports 2.1 1.9 Traction (railroad electrification 0.3 2.6 Total 100.0 100.0 This radical change of the consumption pattern within the industrial category can best be explained by the rapid growth in the metallurgical and chemical industries. The long-established coal industry has advanced at a much slower rate;. its 1955 power consumption, however, will be 31+ percent greater than in 191+6. The increased use of electric power in the metallurgical and chemical industries in this same period is illustrated by the fact that esti- mated 1955 tonnages of a selected list of their important products requiring large amounts of electric power indicate outputs between 3 and 4 times 191+6 tonnages, and the estimated electric power con- sumptions by these industries -- based on the planned percentages indicated in the preceding paragraph -- will be nearly 5 times those of 191+6. The apparent discrepancy between the increase in tonnage and the amount. of power consumed, even after allowance for products not included on the list, can. best be explained by the fact that greater uses are being made of electric power, particularly in the S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T way of electric drives, electric-arc furnaces, and electrochexlical processes. The per capita consumption in Poland can be used ~'or a valid comparison with per capita consumption of other countries to indicate the relative availability of electric power. In lg5`i the per capita consumption in Poland will be about the same as thduc- tion to 0.580 kg per kwh by 1955? If the figure 0.58 kg per kwh is reached, it would hf~ve real significance, because, in effect, it would mean that thE~ 1955 * For known planned transmission lines, see the map, Figures 5, inside back cover. ~ Average fuel consumption is based on a standard fuel hav'ng a calorific value of 7,000 kilocalories per kilogram. 5-E-0-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T electric power production would be produced with ~+.2 million metric tons less coal than would have been required to produce the .same output in 19+9. This saving may not actually materialize; the theoretical saving is based on the assumption that the same grades of coal were used in both years, an assumption which may not be correct. The comparison serves to illustrate, however, that the saving-will be of importance not only to the coal and electric power industries but also to the national economy as a whole. As has been stated previously, hard coal is used pre- dominantly in the thermal electric plants, having a ratio of ap- proximately 18 to 1 aver the use of brown. coal in 19+9. ~ It is estimated that the ratio will be reduced to approximately 10 to 1 in 1955 through the operation of new thermal plants burT~]g brown coal exclusive]~y. Supplies required in the generation of electric power include such expendable items as chemical water softeners, lubricating oils and greases, small tools, and recording graphs and charts. This equipment comprises only a very small percentage of the total operating expenses and presents no serious supply problem. B. Manpower. Statistics on the employment in the electric power industry in Poland are scarce and conflicting in nature, mainly because none of the sources reports the statistics in the same manner. A recent source 71 states that power plant employees in public utility plants averaged almost 9 workers per 1,000 kw of installed capacity in 19+9, with the expectation that this figure will be reduced to about 6 workers per 1:,000 kw in 1.955? This results in an employment of ap- proximately 12,600 workers in 19+9 and 22,x+00 in 1955 for plant operation in public utility power plants only. As far as total employment is concerned, a publication of 19+7 gives the breakdown between operational and administrative personnel for the production and ,transmission-distribution of electric power in public utility and industrial plants. Employment in the electric power industry in Poland in June 19+7 is shown in Table ~+.~ Estimated total employ- ment in the electric power industry in Poland during the 19+6-55 period is shown in Table 5.~ ~ Based on total estimated installed capacity in public utility plants. ~~ Tables 4 and 5 follow on p. 22. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-j 1093A00~090~01 0006-2 N N M ~N N ~L rnm ~I ?~ O rl -y' 0 0 O 0 0 aE o ~ e~ a~i m~~ v*~ F1 N O ~ O CI-tai Ed l!l M OO H N ~ N ~~M H ~ r-I o~ q ,-I O C." rl M ~ -~ 00 O ~~ rlN O ~ ~ ri \O t Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 The estimated employment shown in Table 5 is confirmed by the total employment shown. in Table ~+. These figures are within a reasonable range of the Plan figures of 28,000, 30,000, 35,000 and 38,000 for the years 19+6 to 19~+g 73 and the target of 53,000 planned for 1955 ? 7~+ The electric power industry in Poland requires a very small. segment (less than 1 percent) of the total nonagricultural labor force. Improved labor productivity in the electric power industry is reflected by the fact that, based upon the above estimates, elec- tric power production amounted to 2+4,000 kwh per employee in 19+9, whereas it will be 316,000 kwh per employee in 1955? III. Capabilities, Vulnerabilitiesr and Intentions. A. Capabilities. The capability of an electric power industry is dependent not only upon the capacity of its generating and transmission facili- ties but also on the fullest possible use of those facilities. Poland appears to have made substantial progress in both of these elements and is expected to continue to do so. If the Polish generating facilities are increased at the same rate during 1956-60 as they were during the Six Year Plan, the result will be a 73-percent increase in 1960 over 1955. It is estimated, however, that in the same period electric power pro- duction will increase by 86 percent. This apparent discrepancy in the rate of growth will be largely the result of a fuller and more effective use of the means of production. In this report, statements on capacity refer to installed capacity, which means the aggregate of the full rated capacity of all electric generators. This capacity is not a true measure of capability; the installed capacity cannot be fully operated at all times. The condition of equipment, the lack of adequate steam as a result of antiquated boiler equipment, down-periods for repair, and other operating conditions account for the difference between operable capacity and rated capacity. It is reported that for all of the public utility plants in Poland in 1949 the operable capacity was 72 percent of installed capacity .and tha-~ it is expected to increase to 93 percent in 1955. 75 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T If' these percentages are applied to capacity figures for 19+9 and 1955 (:;ee Table 1-~), they will show a nonoperable capacity of 'j80,00!D kw and 3i'7,000 kw, respectively. Therefore, if the plan is attained, it will mean the equivalent of about x+00,000 kw added to operable capacity merely by putting presently deficient components of the generating fg~cilities into full operation by means of repair and replacement, wYiich can be done at a much smaller investment of time and money than would be required for the equivalent in new facilities. B. Vulnerabilities. At present, Poland is almost entirely dependent upon other countries, both inside and outside of the Soviet Bloc, for the .supply of medium and large electrical equipment such as generators, turbines, boilers, transformers, and switchgear. If the supply of this e luip- me:nt were cut off, the expansion of the electric power industry of Poland most certainly would be drastically retarded, and the economic si:ability of the country would be seriously affected. It is estimated that, at the present, Poland is capable of building annually only 15,000 kw in generator capacity, less th~~.n 3 percent of the estimated capacity installed in 195+. It is d~~ubt- ful that the electric equipment industry in Poland will be able to supply the country with more than 20 percent of the estimated c,~.pacity to be installed in 1960. For many years, therefore, Poland wi1:L be largely dependent upon the countries that produce heavy electri~~al equipment. Recent trade agreements with France and West Germantiy will. materially aid the Polish electric power industry in its expansion Pr' o~'~ ? 76 The expansion of and planning for electric power facilities in PQl.and are dependent upon external sources for technical engineer- ing aid. This will continue to be a deterrent to the electric -power economy. C. Intentions. The electric power industry, when measured by changes ins national capacity and production or by changes in consumption pa~,ttern, is not considered a good indicator of governmental intentions * P. 9, above. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T regarding war or preparation for it. Such changes are too slow in development to act as indicators. Furthermore, because electric power enters so broadly into every phase of the national econo~y, it becomes an indicator of intentions onl,}r when its use can be pin- pointed to a purpose obviously connected with the production of war materiel or the furtherance of war purposes. It is true that planned large. increases in such basic components of war materiel as steel, aluminum, and chemicals will entail plans for adequate electric power, but such increases do not necessarily indicate warlike intentions. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T APPENDIX A ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTS IN POLAND A list of all of the electric generating plants in Poland having a capacity of 5,000 kw or greater is shown in Table 6.* The type of plant -- thermal or Y~ydroelectric -- has been indicated, and, to the extent possible, any variation in the name of the locality or of -the individual plant has been indicated. In the "Type of Plant" column the proper names of the plants are given in parentheses if those names differ from the locality names. The plants indicated as "Regional" and "Municipal" contribute to the public supply under these categories, whereas the others supply the particular industries indicated and in most cases also contribute to the public supply. With some exceptions, the 1950 listing of plants and their .capacities is based on the Yearbook of the Industry of Regenerated Poland, a Polish document published by the State Graphic Establish- ments, Warsaw, 25 Maxch 1948. As far as can be determined, the figures are "official" or at least were compiled from "official" records. The Yearbook indicates the status of plants in 1g46. Any known changes between 1946 and 1950 have been incorporated in the 1950 listing. The capacities in the 1955 listing were developed by app],ying to the 1g50 listing information received before 15 January 1955 on additions. or deletions of plant capacity which took place after 1950. The plants indicated as "planned" or "under construction" will probably be put into operation during the next Plan period. Because very little information is available concerning the condition of the generating equipment (turbines, generators, and boilers and concerning the reduction in capacity as a result of failures and retirement of old equipment, the capacities noted should be con- sidered the optimum installed capacity, especially in the older plants. It must also be considered that some of the smaller plants, because of their low efficiency, may not be operating or may be operating only as peak-load stations. Table follows on p. 28. -27- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 ~ q~ Ov~u1OO0 O m i.n v~mOOOW Nc0 NO=t . . . N.. . . . . . . .p p.. . o.. . . . . . . . . N NriN~~~O ~~ NO~~N ~~O ~r~-1 r~-I r~-I d7 1 1111 ,1 11 111 ~~1 11 1~~ u~ oornu~ o oM. ~o~-, oow No Nor ri .~ .~ ti ti- ~ ~o ~ ~,; m o~ o: ~ o ~n o r-.~ ~ N rl ri ri ri l0 ~ L - .-i rl ri r-I x ~t>~~~a~a vv ~~N~~oo rxc~ aoo I .~ _ rl dl r-. cd ,sq U O U Z O o ~ ~ ~ N .~ p Ul ~ U N ~ N }~ N ~ +~ .O A w~~ ~~ v ~~~ ~ ,-{ ,--I p ~-{ ~-I ~-......, a cd ~ of ?.O-~ ti v ~ q ad a1 ~ ~ cd ~ q ~ ~ I o u O O .q ri o v u -~ u o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o. ~o~o mcococo ~,. rnm ~o~om oo m o o.rnm rl rl ri N ri rl rl r{ rl r{ rl N r{ rl r{ N rl ri r{ _ m i i i i i ~ i i i i i ~ ~ i ~ i i s i r Zi ZZ~+z Zi k. {z. zZ 7-~ZZi x. ~i ZZ ZZF, Pa NO S.~O.~-{NNv~i ~N ON~~ ~ ~O ~r 'e~-I ~{ O O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 p Q O p 0 0 O 0 0 O 00 00 O ~ O M-7 O O rl O~ O r%t O N O O O~ O~ O~ "'~~~~~" u~ ~n v~ in u~ v~ u~ v~ -~ .~ u~ u-~ ~n v~ ~ ~ ~ -7 u~ ~n O w ~ q gN N` N U b D ~ ~ ~ i ~ q _ N A ~ .[ o q zi m A~ (Oy ~ u m H rl i-~ 80 `3 N N i-i ~ N l Ul ~ O R r ~ ~d N Ol N w W F9 N v F9 O `~ O ~ _ ~ WO 17 N v U1 U ~ v v ~ O U i v al } ~ l v 1 W U ~ ?S N ld ~ N ? ~ ~.~' ?rl N v Ul U 3 `3 N N U Rl U ',s' O 0 0 U N ~, I O O U W ,T O U F~ S', ~ ~ 3O y m 0 O - { i ~ T W N p ~ vg W N N N -i N O~ d 4 0 ~ O ,y , ,z ?,a c ~ y J O t7 . r-I F N CD +~ ,--{ ry{~ ,-y{~ ri U -a F+ N N O O O ~} Fi Ta i~ cd Pi ~n ,L' U Uri F~ W ~ O O O O~ N N U Ol N N N rl O c0 ai ltl N N .=~ .O N N N bD F-i y b ~y+ O a ~ , W W U[JUC)CJUUUUUC~U ~k C] W W GA WPaW W ~RlGA W 0.l I 1 I Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 1111 ~ 11111 111 1 11 ~ao~~ 10 otiooo o~~ o 00 o ire o ~o m P' o o t-.~ 0 0 0 ~n ~o cv cv ~ ~ L r-i ~ ~ .~ .7 m N N ~ -f ri H ~dl~ ~d l'tyl Wti ~dI~I WI UI Nl~dl~ ""~I >I~dl ~O .~\O MUOO N~ri O OO N~ ~~ MOO ~~~ ~ ~-rH-I a ^ ,~ N ~ v H N [d ~ ~ v~ ~ ^ o o ,~ o ?~ o u U U u u q q ao -N tin o v o u+~ o aG~ a~~ ~ co>~~ a a~ a~rzmo o ~~ ~~ ~cMV:?m N rl .-I H z zz zz zzzz o ~a~ oo ~ooo ..O?~~ r~-I N O ~~~ ~ ~~ i ~ ~ i i i zzz z zz ~~I ~ -~~- .~7 m N 00~~ ~ ~O U U U _ N ? I ~ -1 ~ ~ N rl N ra~~ Ul U S-i O __ M bD N bN~ 6Np ~~{ .~N1 3 _ ~ ~ ~ ,`~ ,a ~1 $~ N N H N 7 C7 rl V] .. i .v A C C7 m v v ._. H N C7 '3 V O U r??. ~ x /~ ? [ Id a3 .... U ~ ? ~ 3 N +~ 3 3~ O tp rl O cd N x +1 }~ N N a! pp .C O r~ u q R cd q ~ q A ,~, ai ?~ JJ ~~ o ~ FHi FN-i vH] u01 0 0 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-O1 O93AOOO9OO11OOO6-2 1 1~ ~~~~ ~ b ~ ~1 1~~ O O of ,-I O O CO O u~ H to O u~.~ u~ u~ N M ,Mj ~ t~lm ~ O ~ ~O c0 O ~O ~ ~D O ~ ~ C- ~d r-I i-i-I Cv v ~ ~1 ~11 1~ b1 1 111 1 0 0 0~ p' H O m 0 u~ N u~ ~~ ~n N . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M O l0 ~~ ~O \O N .~ N ~~ N N O N ~ ^ +~ H ~ ~ }C H td ~ V] N H W + Fa ~ ~ ~ +~ ~ ~ ~~ N C7 ~ cd ~ ~ ~-~ v ~ R o cd ~ C GCU~~UP.W fY~ UUv~~U ~ ~ - - - - - O O O O O O 00 0 0 ~ H~ N ~ ~~~ ~OHD N M CU iNi rM-I O t~+')-~ ~ N O O m N O N O~ -i O O fi N ~ turd N N O U F+ V C. N C r i ,a nl a~ c+C ~ N t-L Cf1 ,`+~ W W W W W O O~ O ~O O -7 M ~ ri O O~~ ~ O~ N H H rl ri ~ i i ~ zzz z z ~ N rMi EMI r-I O O O N O ~N~ ~ ~ _ 3 O U N U S+ CI ~'. rl U ~ N 'y U1 N v +' N (d N ~-I v i-~ U N m fl01 ~ v N ~ ~ W cd ?rl +~ O ri .O N N N N {.~ y, N y-i r~ Ql N.Q ',3 ~ W U ~dON U N N N ~ q~ t~ !y $-i ~ O .{~ N ,3 ~ ?ri U ~Ny O crH{ (.. ,p-Q ~ F. bD F+ ~ ~ A tB cad ~ ~ ~ U .c-UdI ~c-~~I cad N N Gl rOi q~ O O O p ch c7 c7x~a55h5yti~C ~4X~`.d ~x?4 ~^3Cxt~ Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-O1 O93AOOO9OO11OOO6-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 1w ~~~~1~~1~~~ ~~b o cn rim N ~O \rl rl O N O O~ O q u~ D\ N to h- u~ ~n~D .C Irl l0 tr'~ ~-i O O~ N ?.O-i N .~ N ~ rl SSF7J7 r-I O~ ri N rl U N N 1 w ~1 ~1~~11~1b11b1 1 0 ~ ~ O m ,~ m N ~O ri. O~ O N tp O~ O u~ O~ N rn iii ~~ ~~~~~~~ rN-I ~NN ~ ~ .~ ?C ,y_{, m ^td Si~ O N U ~ ~ ~~ {{ , ~W.. r~i [d to N r-I U1 Li" _ W N +~ rl 3 O O. O Z! 3 ~ ~~ ~a~zzzo v~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~~~~?~ ~ ~~z O~ +~ Oi1l ~ ~ O~ O~ N ~ ~ Opp O~ Opp rl cd rl rl ri rl rl N rl rl N rl N zoz z zzz zz z zzz ~ _ _ ~, v~ FL~O Q\ N \O ~ ~ ti O ~ ~ rl O cd ~?'~ O rl O -~' rl pm N prl rl O O ~ I O ~-I OO-I ~i O O N O O u~ in ~n u~ u~ u~ u~ ~ u~ u~ ~ u~ .-. 3 N ,C O N ?~ ~ U) O ~ U' ?rl 'N ~ ~ ~ W Ri o ~ ?~ ~ U m w $3y v1 ~~-f N C7 Fi ~ N ?i ~ `~-~ ~ N Cd W v fi F-i N ri rl v ~ a a~ ~ a~ ?~ a ~ o u v m ~ cxn 3 u ~ ~ '~ .~ u ~ ~ ?~ N y.~ ~" r7 23 ?rl ?rl O ?rl N N N N N rl ,3 U }~ U U U N (tl q N N N~ ,O ~ b ,O 2S N .}~ ~ O~ N Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 111 ~,-.ov~o O\O ~ m ~ 1 ~ I'dl 11 ?o a~ z~. ~d ~ -d o~ o ~o~ cooo~oo-~ o oti CO N ~OO~ ~O CO V~~~O~ ~~~D :-i ~ Fi 1 1 1 1 110 111 N ~ 1 ~ ~ ~, .~ moo oar o ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ X00 ~ mO u~ N ~~ G C ~ u _ ~ N N ttlA Vi ,} a~'i v v ~~m +~,?i~~u~oa~i?~~ O~~O ~ ~ NmN NOMr~-I~ ~OQ O O O O O O O O O O O O O O ~ O Op O oo ~ ~ N N ~ ~ ~ N N ~ N r -I ~~ N CV ~ r~i m N 0 ~ r~-I ~ O ~ -~ r-I C+M"> ~ON ~ O ~ O O~ I O O O O N ~n'~~O ~i ~-I Qt+"~ O~ N N O O u~ v~ ~n ~ u~ v~ u~ ~ ~ to u~ u'~ ~ u~ u~ u~ v~ N N S-i N i--. O O ~~ a ~ i~ Fi U/ N pO,~ .~i gv N N rl N Cd cd N t2"} N {d 4~ rV~ ~ N 'ri v o ~ ~ x 3 !4 CCA~ q x.~l' 3 0 ~ ~3 a~ .x V +i rl v~l ~ C: rl N ~ td td p3~ rf S-i S-i N 0 rl 0 0 0 O O fP6~ N t~i1 ~~ ~,-I O O O O O ~ Fa ~N ~?~zzzz zzoooowawaawa WWW Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 ~ Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 ~~1~~~1 ~~~ N ~~~1P ~ ~ ~1 co tiro u~oo N .~ o u-. co -~ ~ ~o m rn-~ o a u. o co 0 .7 r~c0 N N C- ~ .-I O~ [^- N `~O a0 N u~ ~ O -~ r-1 rl N N ~O M ~ cr) ~p ri ri N '~Ir-I ~ rl 1~+~ r-I N ri ~ ~1~ ~ ~ 11~ ~ti~o~N.,~-IO ~N~~m~~-I~ ro ~ ~ X111 ~ ~11~ ~ ~ ~ ~1 ~o~-u. ~o,mlrn~o 0 0 m ~ ~ N ,~-Io ~.~,d ~~ I~ ~r-I N r-I~ ~i _ N c~ N q N ^ ?04 ~ ~ .O N 'rN7 ~ ~ o rl _H ~ ~~~rl U7 W O --~~ r N N Gl N~ Ul v N Ol rl N N N vv H N~ `~~oa~a~a a?~aa~~~~za~ ~ wwwwwwww ww www u~cp u'~ N rl iY'~\O O\ D\ N N N rl cr'1 -7 ~O m O O ~ O O ~ O ur O O p N O O O O o 0 O O 00 N cp O c0 O~aD ~O ri rl ri N rl .-I rl rl C O~ ri .-I O~~ O~ r*d r-I .-I N N N ~ i i zzzzzzzz zz zzz z z z 0 0 U cn N u~lD Q\ .~ N 0 0 0 O O ~ N N O rl N~ O O cn ~ p O O O O ooornoooo O ~o O omo O Oi-I ~7 u~ u~ u~.~ u~ ~ u-~ i.n u~ u~ v~ u'. u~ in in v~ ~ .-. a? v q ~ ~ m ~3 Ul i~ v U U (S O ~~?o ~~~~~~~~~q u~ u~ ~ i z ~~I O u~ N N N U] N y-ai~ ~vII ~ ri ri U N N 3 3 U1 ~O y-I v N O O ~-' 3 " ~ ~ ~d Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 ~~ ~ ~ ~ :~ ~~ ~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~1~ O gNC0 vt ~H~ to u~O O~O~ N~ MtnO C~ ~ \O ~ ~ o~~.ri ~D ~O ~ ~o ~ ~ O ~ ~O u~ to rtnl ~ \A t~Dlr-10 ~ ~ r~l r~-I ~. C N ~ ~ ~ ,d 'd I 'O I~ ?~I~ 'O I ~ ~d 'i3 I~~d ~d O N zi b cd O U O CO to ~ -~ H to to to O O\ to N -7' !`'1 In OO N a~i ~ ~ ~ ~ w ~o ~~o ~ ~ ri ~O to to ~ t.r~ .7 Fa O O ^ .y7 _ ~ ~ H t Y~ ^ N H H N ~~ ~~" aqi ~ ~ o. ~ ?p o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ?.ui ~+~ ca a~'i ~ v~~~a~~~~~~~~~~ ~~ ~~a .~i~ OpO ~~ S rl pNO pMO H H ~ N ~~ O~-{ O Opp L~ O~ ~-~- N rl H N r-I r~ i t t t i t zz zzzz ~ t ~ t i z zz zz r- ~ o~ ~o o~ ~ ~ try ~ m q a ~ to ~ N in ~O ri N H to u'~~ OO(~'1 Oor--I ~ O In lfl In In ~ l!1 0~~~ 3 `gym q O v v -i 3~ v u u 3 q q , v sd W v N ~ o ,i?,-t q O O ?~ ~ i++ o-v ~ Y,A3 ~ u U N N N N N N N Lb l0 cd q .R V1 .'~ N N N N W O R N N ~ P Q R A ~ m N H ri N 3333 ,?Nrzc nc nu~ ~3 3 3333 3 X x~ v o .k x v o ...i N P3 ~ U C7 rl U) cd U U .k N v s, +~ o o ?~ m 333~~3v Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 +' ~ cn O a .~ HH ~~~~ 1~1~1 11 moom inoo rnN ~~O ~O CO l-~ N 1D 00 rl \ `d I~~ N 'tl I'd I 'r1 I'c1 I ooom u~o rno N \O \O OJ L~ l7~ \O C- -7 ~D H N M N m ~ HI~xH HHx Hx O m u o [d r~~~i{{ x U b N ~ O U W {i N H (d 'd N yO u~ppiH H ~ ~ 4+ ~ $1 O ~ ~ rl ti ~O ~ N N~ I, ~ H ~I j ~- { r N 1 r-f ~j ,-{ cd (~ Pa ~ W Cd ~ W ~ F4 lV ?ri ~+' O +' rl Fi v-1 ~' G U O O Fa i7 U O U O. Sy' W bD +H-,I ~ ~' bD ~' hp ~ lll r) ~I 1 Lf~CO M ri r-I Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 ~ ~~~ ~ ~ti ~ ri~~ ~ ~ rn~ 1 ~~~ ~~ ~~ r?~-I v ~ .-i rl N N N ~I rNi rl O ri Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 I?t?~~~~~~I~~~~~~~~~~ .................. ~~ ~ ~ p ~ ?o a ~ ~ rn ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~~~~~~~~~~ooo~oo~~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 1. Capacity. The methads used in developing the estimates of installed capacity of Polish electric power plants for 1951-55 are explained by the follo~,r- ing methodology. The installed capacity of plants having a capacity of 5,000 kw or more was established from Appendix A for the year 1950. For each succeeding year through 1955 the total amount of new capacity re- ported or estimated to have been installed in each year was added, this total being the sum of additions to individual plants named in Appendix A. The total capacity of plants having capacities of less than 5,000 kw for the year 1950 is the difference between the announced capac- ity of 2.970 million kw and the plant list capacity of 2.388 million kw. In the following years this was increased at a rate of approxi- mately 6 percent.. Although this is less than half of the average annual increase in the total capacity, it is considered reasonable because it includes the older plants which are probably not being rebuilt or maintained and the small plants which are not being ex- panded. The estimated installed capacity of electric power plants in Poland in the 1950-55 period is shown in Table 7.* The predicted capacities for 1956 through 1960~* are based on an average annual increase of 11.6 percent, which is the average in- crease during the Six Year Plan. 2. Production. Official statistics on the production of electric power in Poland are available through 195+, but in recent years they have been stated as a percentage increase over the previous year. ~ Table 7 follows on p. ~+0. ~' See p. 8, above. Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Estimated Installed Capacity of Electric Power Plants ixi Poland 1950-55 During the first 5 years of the Six Year. Plan (1950-5~+), the average annual rate of increase was 13.2 percent. It is believed that the production of electric power will continue to increase at this rate for the last year of the Six Year Plan and througY:~. the next Plan period. The officially reported production figure of 11.1 billion kwh in 1951, although less than ~+ percent over the 1951 figure used. in this report (see Table 2-~), is believed to be erroneous, mainly r.ecause the fourth-quarter production is out of line with fourth-qus,rter pro duction in previous years and because the announced percentage increases of 12.5 percent and 13 percent for 1952 and 1953 do not result in the announced 1953 production of 13.6 billion kwh. 3. Manpower.. Because manpower statistics concerning total employment for the electric power industry are scarce and the available inf orma,tion is conflicting and generally not on an equivalent basis, it was necessary to construct a year-by-year tabular study based on the main body of wog?kers (operation personnel i.n power plants) in bath the public ~ P. 12, above. -~+0- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T utilities and industrial plants. A decreasing scale was established for the number of workers per 1,000 kw in both categories based on the expected reduction of public utility employees per 1,000 kw, and the breakdown in capacity between public utility and industrial plants was established for the years 19+6 through 1955? To the total number of plant operating personnel was added an estimate for all other employees -- those involved in transmission, distribution, clerical, engineering, and administrative duties. This group is esti- mated to be about ~-6 percent of the total employed by the industry. On the basis of planned employment figures, it is estimated that the range of error is between plus 10 and minus 5 percent. Estimated employment in the electric power industry in Poland during the 19+6-55 period is shown in Table 8.* * Ta le follows on p . ~+2 . S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 L`- O~ ~--~ -~' l0 O~ M C`- rl tf~ N N MmmM~-y- ~~ N u, tt~,.~ \D O~o~ u~ rl r-I V] N O ~ rN-I ~~-I r~I ~ r~-i ~ ~ N N rl M l~ O O N ..f ~- rl u1 uti u~ ~~ \O ~O ~D ~O N C-- O O ri N M M tt1 L`- r-I rl rl rl ri rl rl rl r-I r--I O O~CO C-l0 ~ M N rl O try .~ -~ .~ ,~ -~- .~ -~- .~ -~ C- N ~~0~-~- Q~CO X70 00 -~- O~OOrN-1~-~-I~~NN M O O N t0 aopp ~-I N r-I O r-1 N m u~ ~O o0 N u~ O ~ ,-~ rl ri r-I r-I ri N N M m \O t11~' M r-t O\~O M O\-~ 00 CO ~ 00 0p C- C C-~O ~ ~O L~-~ C7~ O rl N M.# III r~ rl ri r-I -r{ r~ rl rl r-1 rl Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Q T /~ APPENDIX C GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE Before 19+9, statistical yearbooks published by the government of Poland provided much valuable information on the electric power indus- try for such items as production, the number and size of plants, break- down of consumption by various categories and by regions, and various other factors. Since 19+9 this type of material has. not been pub- lished or has not been available. In addition, much of the current material is from sources having little technical knowledge of the industry, with the result that many important items are not observed or are reported in such form as to make them difficult to interpret. Information is needed on the following: 1. Power plants -- particularly the larger ones -- on installed capacity; production during a fixed period, such as quarterly or annual7,y; marked changes in equipment or .operating hours; and plans for enlarge- ment. 2. New high-voltage transmission lines and their actual or proposed interconnection to the existing network. 3? Electric consumption by principal classes of users and particularly by specific industries which are large users of power. ~+. Inputs, including quantity and source of equipment; manpower; technical assistance; and investment required.. Export and import of electric power across international boundaries. .Although the above gaps exist, it should not be inferred that in- formation is completely lacking. There is a quantity of Information available on the larger plants, some conflicting and some confirming, but nothing to give the complete picture of each plant. The?remain- ing gaps are large with only a smattering of information which is difficult to piece together. Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 souRCE REFERENCFs A11. available sources have been explored, with the exception of some Polish language materials. It is believed, however, that there are no important omissions, because the Polish press, including periodicals, newspapers, monographs, and statistical documents, was comprehensively covered. Below are listed the types of reports that were reviewed, al- though not all of the reports were used in the final survey; CIA Irite~nal Reports; 25X1A Intelligence Community; Ar~gy (PW, Attache, and G-2 reports) Navy (Attache reports) 25X1 A Air 25X1 C State (OIR and Embassy reports) Not all types of the above reports will be found in the following source list, although mar.~y~ have been used to form an over-all picture of the existing situation. The following two finished intelligence documents were used exten- sively for comparison and helped to reduce gaps in intelligence; NIS, chapter 1~+, section ~2, Fuels and Power, Sep 52, S/US ONLY, 25X1C 25X1 C Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated "Fuel.," have the following significance; S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Source of Information Doc. - Documentary 1 - Confirmed by other so~a.rces A - Completely reliable 2 - Probably true B - Usua]~ly reliable 3 - Possibly true C - Fairly reliable 1+ - Doubtful D - Not usually reliable 5 - Probably false E - Not reliable F - Cannot be fudged 6 - Cannot be fudged 25X1A 25X1A STATSPEC "Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments and organizations; copies or translations of such documents b;y a staff officer; or information extracted from such documents by a st,~,ff officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary .'? Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing ~~n the cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this re- port. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document. 1. CIA. Map Library, no 7921+, F 307-21+, Map of the Main Electric Transmission Lines,-1938, U. Eval. Doc. CLA. FDB, translation no 37/1+9, 11+ Jun 1+9, Yearbook ~f the Indust of Re enerated Poland, chap 5, part 3, C. '.Eval. Doc. tr of Rocznik przem~yslo odrondzone~ Polski, 2d ed, 'Warsaw, 3? 1+ . 25 Mar 2. CIA. FDB, translation no 37/1+9, off. cit. (1, above .; 6. UN, ECE, Committee on Electric Power. E/ECE/EP/131, Hydroelectric Potential in Euro e and Its Gross Technical and Economic Limits, 1 May 53, U? Ev~? ~ 2 -1+6- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T 25X1A8a 9? CIA. FDB, translation no 37~~+9, off, cit. (l, above). 10. 2~~ X7FDD, Summary, no 85, 11 Mar 53, S. Eval. RR 2. 11. CIA. Cux'r~nt Support Memorandum, no 155, 11 Aug 5~+, S. 12. Wiadomo~ci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 12, no 8, Aug 53, p. 170-173, U. Eval. RR 2. 13? CIA. FDB, translation no 37~~+9, og. cit. (l, above). 1~+. R_ocznik statysty~zr~y~1~9 (Statistical Yearbook, 19+9), Warsaw, 1950, U. Eval. Doc. 15.2~K~~(7 16. 25X1 A 17' 18. NIS 18 cha 6 sec 62 19 . 25X1 A2g 20 21. 25X1 A2g 22. 23. o s Panned Econo Warsaw, 19 U. -Fuel, RR 2. 2~+ . 25. 26. STATSPEC 27. Rocznik statystyczny, 19+9 (Statistical Yearbook, 19+9), 25X1A STATSPEC Warsaw, 1950, U. Eval. Doc. 29? UN, ECE. Economic Survey of Europe in 1951, Geneva, 152, 30. 31. 32? 33? 25X1A 3~+? 35? 36. CIA. FDD, "Closer Integration of Soviet Bloc Economies Planned," Summary, no 308, 14 Dec 5~+, C. Eval. RR 2. (tr from SBZ Archiv, Cologne, 25 Sep 5~+) CIA.. FDB, translation no 37 ~+9 0 cit . 1 above UN, ECE. E ECE 151, E ECE~EP~126, Transfers of Electric Power Across European Frontier&, 1 Aug 52, Geneva, U. Eval. RR 2. - ~+7 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T 25X1A ~+~' . Ibid . 25X1 X7 ~3 ? CIA. FDB, translation no 37~~+9, op. cit . (l, above 25X1 X7 ~~ ' ~ 25X1X7 +5. CIA. FDB translation no 37 9, o cit. ~+6 . Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 1 , no , u ~+ ~+7. Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 13, no 7, Jul 5~+, U. Eval. RR 2. 48 . ~+g . 5a. 51.. 52? STATSPEC 53, 5~+ 55? 56. 5i' 5g? U. Eval. RR 2. Wirtschaftsdienst, vol 5, no ~+ (~+2), Apr 53, U. Eval. RR. 2. Wiadomosci elektrotechnicz_ne, Warsaw, vol 13, no 7, Jul 5~+, U. Eval. RR 2. Ibid., vol 12, no 8, Aug 53, p. 170-173, U. Eval. RR 2. dio Free Europe. Item. no 1125~+~53~ 5 Nov 53, U. Eval. RR 3. Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol. 12, no 8, Aug 53, p. 170-173, U. Eval. RR 2. 59. Ibid. 6a . Energie Technik, Leipzig, vol ~+, no 7, Jul 5~+, U. Eval. RR 2. 25X1A 61. Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 12, no 8, Aug 53, 62. 25X1A Stolica, Warsaw, vol 8, no ~+1, 11 Oct 53, U. Eval. RFC 3. 63 6~. 65. Federal Power Co~i.ssion. 5-103, Statistics of Electric Utilities in the United States, Washington, 1952, p. iii, U. Eval. RR 2. -- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 S-E-C-R-E-T 25X1A 25X1X7 25X1A2g 66. UN, ECE. Mon t~ly Coal. Statistics, Coal Division, vol 1, no 1, Sep 52, U. Eval. RR 2. ' 67? Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 12, no $, Aug 53, p- 170-173, U. Eval. RR 2. 68. -Ibid. 69? Laskow, J. E_nergetyka w planie 6 letnim (power in the Six Year Plan), Warsaw, 1952, U. Eval. RR 2. 70, UN, ECE. Monthly Coal Statistics, Coal Division, vol 1, no 1, Sep 52, U. Eval. RR 2. 71. Laskow, off. cit. (69, above). 72. Prze ad elektrotechniczne, vol 23, no 8, 21 Aug ~.7, U. Eval. RR 2. 73? Polish National Economic Plan (1 Jan ~+6-31 Dec ~+9), Warsaw, 75 76. 77? 78 . 79? 80. 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. 91. 92. 93? 9~+ 95? - ~+9 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 5X1A \ Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2 Approvetl FOr Relea~lB~7-OIG~~P9'17~1`~~I.WNi~I Power Generating Stations and Transmission Lines -..- . ...~.ry a.,~oom.. ~ - OO - O ~. ,e~~ ? ? o 0 0 0 - .. ~:?3OT RE~.EASA[3LE T6 p:)RE.IGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 1999/09/26 :CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2