ELECTRIC POWER IN POLAND

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• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A000900110006-2
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• Document Page Count: 63
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 1999
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: July 29, 1955
• Content Type: IR

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NALS
PROVISIONAL .INTELLIGENCE REPORT ,
ELECTRIC POWER IN ~?GLAND
CIA/RR PR-117
29 July 1955
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
117
OREIGN NATI
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WARNING
This material :contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United Status
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs: 793 and 794, ? the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any. manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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Supplementary Source- References
CIA/RR PR-117
29 July 1955
WARNING
THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING .THE NATIONAL
DEFENSE OF.THE UNITED.STA.TES WITHIN-THE MEANING OF THE
ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18; USCf?SECS... 793 AND 791 THE
.TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
office .~f Research .-.and Repasts
LIMITED
-: ~, ~1
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( ORR Pro~j ect -27 . x+78 )
LIMITED
upplementary ,Source .References....
ELECTRIC PQWER IN POLAND
Evaluations,-following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.," have the following significance;
Source of Information.
Information
Doc? - DQCUmentary
1
- Confirmed by other
sources
.A - Cgmpletely reliable
E
-Probably true
B -Usually reliable
3
- Possibly true
C -Fairly reliable
~-
- Doubtf"u..l
D -Not usually reliable
5
-Probably false
E -Nat reliable
F -Cannot be ,judged
b
-Cannot be fudged
'Documentary" xefers to original documents. of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff
officers or information extr8cted from such documents by a staff.
officer,, all of which may carry the. field evaluation."Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing an the
cited document; those designated "RFt"' are by the- author of this report.
No "R.R." evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation
on the cited document.
The source ref'eren.ces listed below constitute only those from which
identifying numbers have been deleted in the Source References appendix
to the report. some- of these references appear in the original report
together with other references; iu~...connect3~Q~n'.wttb.' .the same -c:t~,?t~,i~n:a..
LIl~ILTED
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Gontr~gl Sheet
Supplementary Source Refere___-- ___
CIA /RR PR -117
series N~arxiber
lf~a,te of .L~ocuznent a9 July 55
~1MITE?
~..~~~~~
Classification ~{?{~ 11
Number of Copies
Gory No. .Recipient :date
1 AD /RR 11 Aug 55
Returned
2 61 St PC file c
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.. ! M ~ 3
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
ELECTRIC POWER IN POLAND
CIA~RR PR-117
(ORR Project 27.x+78)
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
Office of Research and Reports
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
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CONTENT'S
Page
Summary
1
A.
General
2
B .
Boundary Changes
3
II.
Organization and Administrative Structure
3
III.
Generation and Transmission Facilities
~+
A.
Natural Resources
~+
1. Coal . .
~+
2. Water Power
5
B.
Electric Generating Plants
6
C.
Transmission Lines and Substations
8
D.
Existing Concentrations
10
IV.
Production and Consumption
11
A.
Available Supply
11
1. Production
11
2. Exports and Imports
13
B.
Consumption
1~+
1. Pattern
1~+
2. Controls and Restrictions
16
V .
Growth
17
A.
General .
17
B.
Increases in Facilities
18
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1. New Plants and Transmission Facilities .
2. Enlargement of Existing Facilities .
C . Deterrents to Growth
D. Estimates of Growth through 1960 .
A. Fuels and Supplies
B. Manpower
A. Capabilities
B. Vulnerabilities .
C . Intentions
Appendixes
Appendix A. Electric Generating Plants in Poland
Appendix B. Methodology .
Appendix C. Gaps in Intelligence
Appendix D. Source References . .
Tables
1. Installed Capacity of Electric Power Plants in Poland,
2. Production of Electric Power in Poland, 196-55 12
3. Pattern of Electric Power Consumption in Poland,
19+6 and 195 5 . 15
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4. Employment in the Electric Power Industry in Poland,
June 1947 22
5. Estimated Total Employment in the Electric Power Industry
in Poland, 1946-55 22
6. Electric Generating Plants in Poland, 1950 and 1955 28
7. Estimated Installed Capacity of Electric-Power Plants
in Poland, 1950-55
8. Estimated Employment in the Electric Power Industry in
Poland, 1946-55 42
Following Page
Figure 1. Poland: Organization of the Electric Power
Industry ( Chart )
4
Figure 2. Poland: Power Administration Districts, 1951
(Map)
6
Figure 3. Poland: Electric Power Production (Chart)
12
Figure 4. Poland: Electric Generating Plant Capacity
(Chart )
18
Figure 5. Poland: Major Electric Power Generating Stations
and Transmission Lines (Map) Inside
Back Cover
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cIA/RR PR-117
(ORR Project 27.478)
S-E-C-R-E-T
ELECTRIC POWER IN POLANI7~
Summary
The industrial economy of Poland is centered around the coal
mining, metallurgical, and chemical industries, all of which are
large consumers of electric power. It is estimated that in 1955
these industries will consume about 66 percent of the total indus-
trial consumption of electricity in Poland. Because there is no
economically feasible substitute for electricity, it is evident that
the electric power industry is now, and wrill continue to be, of major
importance in the industrial expansion of Poland.
Poland is the second largest producer of electric power in the
European Satellites, outranked only by East Germany, and its share
of the total electric power production in the European Satellites
and in the Sino-Soviet Bloc has steadily increased since 1946. It
is estimated that in 1955 the production of electric power in Poland
will be 23 percent of the total European Satellite production and
7 percent of the total Sino-Soviet Bloc production. Analysis of
estimates of electric power production in 1955 for Poland, the USSR,
and the US indicates that the production of 17.4 billion kilowatt-
hours (kwh) in Poland will be 11 percent of Soviet and 3 percent of
US production.
The substantial gains made and expected to be made by the indus-
try are reflected in the announced production for 1954 (15.4 billion
kwh) and in the estimated production for 1955 (17.4 billion kwh) and
1960 (32.3 billion kwh), which are, respectively, more than twofold
and nearly fourfold that of 1949 (8.3 billion kwh).
The electric power potential in Poland, in terms of coal resources,
is extremely large. Coal reserves in Poland are immense and will
provide an ample supply for many hundreds of years. Expansion of
facilities for the production of electric power, however, is limited
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORR as of 15 MaY 1955?
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~by dependence upon foreign techzrology, material, and equipment: Poland
is capable of producing less than 20 percent of its requiremer'~ts for
:heavy electrical machinery, and the industry will be dependent, upon
:eore:ign sources for technical engineering aid for some years t;o come.
Although it is possible that changes in the consumption of elec-
tric power might be an indicator of intentions, the changes ar:~e too
slow to be used as definite indicators and must be used in conjunction
,with other more substantial ind~_cators -- which can usually sr~pport
themselves.
I. :Introduction.
As considered in this report, the electric power industry of
:Poland include the generation, transmission, and distribution. of
electric power for and to the ultimate consumers. The physical fa-
cilities involved include all public utility power plants (municipal
,~,nd regional) and all industrial power plants, except for small, mis-
cellaneous plants used .for emergency purposes, and all transmission
~~,nd distribution facilities. Although in Poland the Ministry of
Power. (Ministerstwo Energetyki) is responsible for the production
~~f power-generating equipment (boilers, turbines, generators, trans-
~ormers, and auxiliary machinery), this segment is not included in
-this report. Reference is made to the supply of this equipment
only as it affects the planned expansion program. of the industry.
The time period covered by this report is the postwar period
(194E~-6o) with only brief reference to the war and prewar periods for
zistorical and comparative purposes.
Present-day Poland is defined as the area within the F~ostwar
boundaries -- between the Oder-Neisse Rivers on the west and the
~;urzon Line on the east. Except for reference to historical data and
background, this is the area covered in the report.
Electric power is a keystone of modern industrial ecor.;:omy.
?Phe economical development and expansion of practically all industries
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depend upon the supply of electricity for motive power and electra-
technical processes. Many specialized industries and processes have
no substitute for electric power -- for instance, various chemical and
metallurgical reduction operations. The mining of coal, previously
accomplished by manual, compressed air, or steam-driven operation,
is now done faster and more economically with electrically powered
tools. Haulage of coal in the mines, previously performed by man-
power or horsepower, is now done with electric locomotives. The
commercial production of aluminum is not possible without electric
power, and the production of zinc and many ferrous alloys can be
accomplished more economically in electric furnaces.
B. Boundary Changes.
The boundary changes which took place in 19+5 greatly in-
creased the scope of the Polish economy. ,Although the westward
shift resulted in an ultimate loss of approximately 30,000 square
miles of territory, all of the eastern area, ceded to the USSR,
was agrarian. The western area, on the other hand, was highly in-
dustrialized and was particularly rich in coal resources. As a
result of the boundary changes, there was a gain of about 50 percent
in the electrical generating capacity. ~~ The loss of electric
power facilities in the east was insignificant compared with the
gain in the west .
II. Organization and Administrative Structure.
After the end of hostilities in 19+5 an organization was estab-
lished to control the power economy of Poland. It was called the
Central Administration for Power (Central Zarzag Energetyki --
CZE). ~ During 1952 and 1953, marked changes were made in the
organizational structure.- They seem to reflect the importance
which Poland attached to the electric power industry and the resul-
tant desire to place all elements of the industry under a single
control. To this end the Ministry of Power was established, and the
Central Administration for Power, formerly subordinate to the
Ministry of Heavy Industry, became subordinate to the Ministry of
Power. The Central Administration for Power was strengthened to
the extent of putting all industrial power plants under its complete
control and retaining control of the public utilities. The
~ For serially numbered source references, see Appendix D.
~~ For an organization chart, see Figure 1, following p. 4.
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Ministry of Power was further enlarged by subordination of the Central
Administration for the Power Generating Industry (Centralr~y Zarzod
Przemyslu Energetycznego -- CZPE), formerly under the control of th+~
Ministry of the Machine Industry.*
Ir.~cluded in the changes was a regrouping of the former 13 power
regio~~s into 6 power districts, which generally conformed to gea-
graph3.c areas rather than to county boundaries. These districts,
since X951, are as follows ~:
District Designation
I Central
II Eastern
III Southern
IV Lower Silesia
V Western
VI Northern
III. GE=neration and Transmission Facilities.
A. Natural Resources.
Coal, the principal natural resource in Poland and a main-
stay of the national economy, is in virtually unlimited reserves..
For tape most part, it is of excellent quality for steam-producing
purposes. Over 90 percent of the electric power plants are coal-fi.red.~-~*
~ `Phe administrative chain of command is shown in Figure 1, ~ following
p. ~+.
~ :For the district division of the electric system, see Figure ~:,
following p. o'.
~~~ :For a documented breakdown of thermal electric plants and hydi?o-
electric plants, see Appendix A.
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The abundance and availability of high-grade hard coal,- which can be
burned. more easily and effectively than brown coal, accounts for the
fact that hard coal is used predominantly in thermal electric power
plants. Because there are regions where brown coal is readily avail-
able, however, thermal electric power plants are being built or
planned for burning this low-grade coal exclusively. This permits
the conservation of hard coal, not only for other important require-
ments but also for export. Coal exports yield a major part of the
income from foreign trade. There is a power plant planned at
Turoszow, the largest brown coal producing area in Poland, and
another is under construction at Konin, which is just now being
developed into a major brown coal mining operation.~~ Because coal
reserves are abundant in Poland, fuel supplies will not be a limiting
factor in planned expansion of thermal electric power production.
The potential resources of hydroelectric power in Poland
are limited. There are several large rivers, but the predominantly
flat terrain is a hindrance to economic development of hydroelectric
power sites. The technically developable hydroelectric power resources
amount to 3.65 million kilowatts (kw) of which approximately two-
thirds axe in the Vistula Basin, including the Bug River, and the
remainder are in the Oder Basin. ~ Only 0.6 million kw (approxi-
mately one-sixth of the technically developable resources) are con-
sidered economically exploitable. This, therefore, places a limit
on the production of hydroelectric power, whereas there is no such
limitation on thermal electric power.
Poland is planning large-scale developments of hydro-
electric power on the Bug and Vistula Rivers during the next Plan
period (1956-60). Polish scientists and engineers are reported
to have worked out hydrotechnical construction plans for the
~ The term hard coal in the European sense includes all grades
of coal which in US terminology would be called anthracite or
bituminous coal. Because there is no anthracite coal in Poland,
the term, as used in this report, includes only the various grades
of bituminous coal indigenous to Poland. The term. brown coal in
European terminology includes all grades of brown coal and lignite.
~' For a documented breakdown of thermal electric plants and
hydroelectric plants, see Appendix A.
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Vistula River, and it is also reported ~ that similar developments
on the Bug River will be started within the Six Year Plan (1ca50-55)
and. be continued into the next Plan period. The main purposa~s of
these developments, however, are irrigation, flood control, a~.nd
navigation. As a result of the development of streams for t]zese
purposes, a limited amount of hydroelectric capacity will be~~ome
available. .Although such plants have been mentioned for both the
Vistula and Bug, no information on their projected size is a~railable.
This expansion will only slightly change the balance between hydro-
electric and thermal electric plants. Hydroelectric power p;Lant
capacity was approximately 5 percent of the total in 1946, 9~
rising to ~ percent in 1950, and it is estimated that it wil;L be
about 8 percent in 1955?*
B. Electric Generating Plants.
As a result of occupation by the USSR and the Germania and
of the devastating effects of physical damage and destructio~i
from military actions, output by the electric power industry of
Poland was at a low level at the end of World War II. It is
believed that-the majority of losses caused by damage and we,~.r were
restored by the end of 1949, although a considerable portion of the
total loss was not restored -- that which the USSR dismantl.eci and
shipped to the USSR.
For the 10-year postwar period (1946-55) the growth ~~f
generating facilities has been steady and substantial. By tine
end. of 1955 the estimated installed capacity (5.38 million k~~r)
will be about two and one-half times that of 1946 (2.14 mi1.l;Lon
kw ), and three-fourths of this increase will have been accomplished
during the Six Year Plan.
Because this 6-year period includes so large a part ;~f the
improved situation on installed capacity, attention is call.e~i to
figures on this sub~ect~ which indicate the developmental t:^ends
occurring in the facilities of generating plants. A comparison
of 1955 with 1950 shows that although the number of plants o:~ over
5,000-kw capacity will not have increased materially (123 plaants in
1950, 137 plants in 1955), the installed capacity of these p:Lants
* Estimates are based on thermal electric and hydroeleetri!~ capaci-
ties in 1946 and on figures shown in Table 6, Appendix A.
~ For plant capacity figures, see Table 6 S?*!~ary, p. 35:below.
-6-
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Figure 3
POLAND
ELECTRIC PC~~ER PRflDUCTIOI~I
(Billions o~ KWN)
Revised Plan Goal-19.x.
Griginal Plan Goal''-18.0 ~
Estimated Achievement.-17.4-~/
Predicted. Achievement-32.3!
~'
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The next Plan will probably be for a 5-year period to
coincide with the Soviet Sixth Five Year Plan as well as with the
expected Five Year Plans of other European Satellites. 33 The
estimated production of electric power in Poland during the 1956-60
period is as follows-:
195
1957
1958
195y
1960
19.7
22.3
25.2
28.5
32.3
2. Exports and Imports.
Exports and imports of electric power by Poland do not
materially affect the available domestic supply because the net
interchange -- the difference between the amounts exported and im-
ported -- is very small. The difference is estimated at less than
1 percent of the national production. Data on the net interchange
for selected years during the 1946-53 period are as follows;
1846
1847
19~
1950
195.2 _
1953
Net exports
from Poland
to Ozechoslovakia
91 34
80 35
`
110 36
110 37
100 38
1l+3 39
Net imports
to Poland
from East Germany
40 40f
N.A.
100 41
130 42
N.A.
N.A.
Because the figures shown represent the net interchange,
they do not reflect the-total amounts of power which may flow in each
direction. Even though the net interchange is but a small part of the
* Based on the average annual rate of increase derived from the
achieved production for the Six Year Plan, 13..2 percent. This esti-
mate should be within a range of error of .plus 10 percent- and minus
5 percent.
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national production, it is important to the supplies of certa:Cn
vicinities and permits the international exchange of power in
times of temporary emergency and for efficient loading of the
larger plants involved.
The interchanges are confined to the immediate ne~.ghbors
of Poland, the USSR,. Czechoslavakia, and East Germany. Littler is
:Known about the interchange with the USSR, but it is certain to be
small because there are no known high-tension lines capable of
transmitting large quantities of power, and there are few lower
voltage lines. Similarly, there appear to be no major trans-
mission lines between Poland and East Germany, but a number of
:Lowei? voltage, small-capacity .lines permit enough interchange so
i;hat net imports into Poland from East Germany are about equal
i;o exports from Poland to Czechoslovakia. It is probable that the
intex?change with Czechoslovakia will increase, not only by means
of tYae existing high-tension line from Walbrzych into northwestern
Czechoslovakia but also because of the completion of the 220-kv
7.ine from the jointly financed Czechoslovak-Polish plant at Dwory
connecting with the Czechoslovak system at Ostrava and running-from
there into central Czechoslovakia.
E. Consumption.
1. Pattern.
Although information is not available in sufficieni; quan-
tity to construct annual consumption patterns for the principa:L cate-
gories of users of electric power in Poland, it is doubtful thE~t the
pattern for 19-6 and that planned for 1955 will change drasticFi,lly
during the next Plan period. The pattern of electric power consumption
in Poland in 19+6 and 1955 is shown in Table 3.~
The consumption pattern indicates that industry is by far
t:he largest consumer of electric power. In 19+6 the largest single
industrial consumer was the coal mining industry, which used al~proxi-
mateltiy ~+2 percent of the total industrial consumption, followed. by
the metallurgical and chemical industries, which used approximately
15 percent axed 13 percent, respectively. ~+3 This balance will be
radically changed in 1955, when the planned consumption will be as
follows; metallurgical, 25 percent; chemical, 23 percent; and coal
m:tning, 18 percent . 4~+
* Table 3 follows on p. 15.
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Table 3
Pattern of Electric Power Consumption in Poland
191+6 and 1955
a,. Given in terms of the percent of the gross
production less system loss and plant use, which
accounts for 22.6 percent of the gross production
in 191+6 and 19.6 percent in 1955?
b.. Based on source 1+5
c. Interpolated from source 1+6 .
Consumer
181+6 ~
1955
Industry
87.0
80.8
Domestic (street lighting,
commercial,
residential
9.7
12,2
Agriculture
p,g
2.5
Exports
2.1
1.9
Traction (railroad
electrification
0.3
2.6
Total
100.0
100.0
This radical change of the consumption pattern within
the industrial category can best be explained by the rapid growth
in the metallurgical and chemical industries. The long-established
coal industry has advanced at a much slower rate;. its 1955 power
consumption, however, will be 31+ percent greater than in 191+6.
The increased use of electric power in the metallurgical and chemical
industries in this same period is illustrated by the fact that esti-
mated 1955 tonnages of a selected list of their important products
requiring large amounts of electric power indicate outputs between
3 and 4 times 191+6 tonnages, and the estimated electric power con-
sumptions by these industries -- based on the planned percentages
indicated in the preceding paragraph -- will be nearly 5 times those
of 191+6. The apparent discrepancy between the increase in tonnage
and the amount. of power consumed, even after allowance for products
not included on the list, can. best be explained by the fact that
greater uses are being made of electric power, particularly in the
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way of electric drives, electric-arc furnaces, and electrochexlical
processes.
The per capita consumption in Poland can be used ~'or a
valid comparison with per capita consumption of other countries to
indicate the relative availability of electric power. In lg5`i the
per capita consumption in Poland will be about the same as thduc-
tion to 0.580 kg per kwh by 1955?
If the figure 0.58 kg per kwh is reached, it would hf~ve
real significance, because, in effect, it would mean that thE~ 1955
* For known planned transmission lines, see the map, Figures 5,
inside back cover.
~ Average fuel consumption is based on a standard fuel hav'ng a
calorific value of 7,000 kilocalories per kilogram.
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electric power production would be produced with ~+.2 million metric
tons less coal than would have been required to produce the .same
output in 19+9. This saving may not actually materialize; the
theoretical saving is based on the assumption that the same grades
of coal were used in both years, an assumption which may not be correct.
The comparison serves to illustrate, however, that the saving-will
be of importance not only to the coal and electric power industries
but also to the national economy as a whole.
As has been stated previously, hard coal is used pre-
dominantly in the thermal electric plants, having a ratio of ap-
proximately 18 to 1 aver the use of brown. coal in 19+9. ~ It
is estimated that the ratio will be reduced to approximately 10 to
1 in 1955 through the operation of new thermal plants burT~]g brown
coal exclusive]~y.
Supplies required in the generation of electric power include
such expendable items as chemical water softeners, lubricating oils
and greases, small tools, and recording graphs and charts. This
equipment comprises only a very small percentage of the total operating
expenses and presents no serious supply problem.
B. Manpower.
Statistics on the employment in the electric power industry
in Poland are scarce and conflicting in nature, mainly because none
of the sources reports the statistics in the same manner. A recent
source 71 states that power plant employees in public utility plants
averaged almost 9 workers per 1,000 kw of installed capacity in 19+9,
with the expectation that this figure will be reduced to about 6
workers per 1:,000 kw in 1.955? This results in an employment of ap-
proximately 12,600 workers in 19+9 and 22,x+00 in 1955 for plant
operation in public utility power plants only. As far as total
employment is concerned, a publication of 19+7 gives the breakdown
between operational and administrative personnel for the production
and ,transmission-distribution of electric power in public utility
and industrial plants. Employment in the electric power industry in
Poland in June 19+7 is shown in Table ~+.~ Estimated total employ-
ment in the electric power industry in Poland during the 19+6-55
period is shown in Table 5.~
~ Based on total estimated installed capacity in public utility
plants.
~~ Tables 4 and 5 follow on p. 22.
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The estimated employment shown in Table 5 is confirmed by
the total employment shown. in Table ~+. These figures are within a
reasonable range of the Plan figures of 28,000, 30,000, 35,000 and
38,000 for the years 19+6 to 19~+g 73 and the target of 53,000
planned for 1955 ? 7~+
The electric power industry in Poland requires a very small.
segment (less than 1 percent) of the total nonagricultural labor
force. Improved labor productivity in the electric power industry
is reflected by the fact that, based upon the above estimates, elec-
tric power production amounted to 2+4,000 kwh per employee in 19+9,
whereas it will be 316,000 kwh per employee in 1955?
III. Capabilities, Vulnerabilitiesr and Intentions.
A. Capabilities.
The capability of an electric power industry is dependent
not only upon the capacity of its generating and transmission facili-
ties but also on the fullest possible use of those facilities.
Poland appears to have made substantial progress in both of these
elements and is expected to continue to do so.
If the Polish generating facilities are increased at the
same rate during 1956-60 as they were during the Six Year Plan,
the result will be a 73-percent increase in 1960 over 1955. It is
estimated, however, that in the same period electric power pro-
duction will increase by 86 percent. This apparent discrepancy in
the rate of growth will be largely the result of a fuller and more
effective use of the means of production.
In this report, statements on capacity refer to installed
capacity, which means the aggregate of the full rated capacity of
all electric generators. This capacity is not a true measure of
capability; the installed capacity cannot be fully operated at all
times. The condition of equipment, the lack of adequate steam as
a result of antiquated boiler equipment, down-periods for repair,
and other operating conditions account for the difference between
operable capacity and rated capacity.
It is reported that for all of the public utility plants in
Poland in 1949 the operable capacity was 72 percent of installed
capacity .and tha-~ it is expected to increase to 93 percent in 1955. 75
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If' these percentages are applied to capacity figures for 19+9 and 1955
(:;ee Table 1-~), they will show a nonoperable capacity of 'j80,00!D kw and
3i'7,000 kw, respectively. Therefore, if the plan is attained, it will
mean the equivalent of about x+00,000 kw added to operable capacity
merely by putting presently deficient components of the generating
fg~cilities into full operation by means of repair and replacement,
wYiich can be done at a much smaller investment of time and money than
would be required for the equivalent in new facilities.
B. Vulnerabilities.
At present, Poland is almost entirely dependent upon other
countries, both inside and outside of the Soviet Bloc, for the .supply
of medium and large electrical equipment such as generators, turbines,
boilers, transformers, and switchgear. If the supply of this e luip-
me:nt were cut off, the expansion of the electric power industry of
Poland most certainly would be drastically retarded, and the economic
si:ability of the country would be seriously affected.
It is estimated that, at the present, Poland is capable of
building annually only 15,000 kw in generator capacity, less th~~.n
3 percent of the estimated capacity installed in 195+. It is d~~ubt-
ful that the electric equipment industry in Poland will be able to
supply the country with more than 20 percent of the estimated c,~.pacity
to be installed in 1960. For many years, therefore, Poland wi1:L be
largely dependent upon the countries that produce heavy electri~~al
equipment. Recent trade agreements with France and West Germantiy will.
materially aid the Polish electric power industry in its expansion
Pr' o~'~ ? 76
The expansion of and planning for electric power facilities
in PQl.and are dependent upon external sources for technical engineer-
ing aid. This will continue to be a deterrent to the electric -power
economy.
C. Intentions.
The electric power industry, when measured by changes ins
national capacity and production or by changes in consumption pa~,ttern,
is not considered a good indicator of governmental intentions
* P. 9, above.
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regarding war or preparation for it. Such changes are too slow in
development to act as indicators. Furthermore, because electric
power enters so broadly into every phase of the national econo~y,
it becomes an indicator of intentions onl,}r when its use can be pin-
pointed to a purpose obviously connected with the production of
war materiel or the furtherance of war purposes. It is true that
planned large. increases in such basic components of war materiel
as steel, aluminum, and chemicals will entail plans for adequate
electric power, but such increases do not necessarily indicate
warlike intentions.
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APPENDIX A
ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTS IN POLAND
A list of all of the electric generating plants in Poland having
a capacity of 5,000 kw or greater is shown in Table 6.* The type of
plant -- thermal or Y~ydroelectric -- has been indicated, and, to the
extent possible, any variation in the name of the locality or of -the
individual plant has been indicated. In the "Type of Plant" column
the proper names of the plants are given in parentheses if those
names differ from the locality names. The plants indicated as
"Regional" and "Municipal" contribute to the public supply under
these categories, whereas the others supply the particular industries
indicated and in most cases also contribute to the public supply.
With some exceptions, the 1950 listing of plants and their
.capacities is based on the Yearbook of the Industry of Regenerated
Poland, a Polish document published by the State Graphic Establish-
ments, Warsaw, 25 Maxch 1948. As far as can be determined, the
figures are "official" or at least were compiled from "official"
records. The Yearbook indicates the status of plants in 1g46. Any
known changes between 1946 and 1950 have been incorporated in the
1950 listing.
The capacities in the 1955 listing were developed by app],ying
to the 1g50 listing information received before 15 January 1955 on
additions. or deletions of plant capacity which took place after 1950.
The plants indicated as "planned" or "under construction" will
probably be put into operation during the next Plan period. Because
very little information is available concerning the condition of
the generating equipment (turbines, generators, and boilers and
concerning the reduction in capacity as a result of failures and
retirement of old equipment, the capacities noted should be con-
sidered the optimum installed capacity, especially in the older
plants. It must also be considered that some of the smaller plants,
because of their low efficiency, may not be operating or may be
operating only as peak-load stations.
Table follows on p. 28.
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1. Capacity.
The methads used in developing the estimates of installed capacity
of Polish electric power plants for 1951-55 are explained by the follo~,r-
ing methodology.
The installed capacity of plants having a capacity of 5,000 kw or
more was established from Appendix A for the year 1950. For each
succeeding year through 1955 the total amount of new capacity re-
ported or estimated to have been installed in each year was added, this
total being the sum of additions to individual plants named in
Appendix A.
The total capacity of plants having capacities of less than 5,000
kw for the year 1950 is the difference between the announced capac-
ity of 2.970 million kw and the plant list capacity of 2.388 million
kw. In the following years this was increased at a rate of approxi-
mately 6 percent.. Although this is less than half of the average
annual increase in the total capacity, it is considered reasonable
because it includes the older plants which are probably not being
rebuilt or maintained and the small plants which are not being ex-
panded. The estimated installed capacity of electric power plants
in Poland in the 1950-55 period is shown in Table 7.*
The predicted capacities for 1956 through 1960~* are based on an
average annual increase of 11.6 percent, which is the average in-
crease during the Six Year Plan.
2. Production.
Official statistics on the production of electric power in Poland
are available through 195+, but in recent years they have been stated
as a percentage increase over the previous year.
~ Table 7 follows on p. ~+0.
~' See p. 8, above.
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Estimated Installed Capacity of Electric Power Plants ixi Poland
1950-55
During the first 5 years of the Six Year. Plan (1950-5~+), the
average annual rate of increase was 13.2 percent. It is believed
that the production of electric power will continue to increase at
this rate for the last year of the Six Year Plan and througY:~. the
next Plan period.
The officially reported production figure of 11.1 billion kwh in
1951, although less than ~+ percent over the 1951 figure used. in this
report (see Table 2-~), is believed to be erroneous, mainly r.ecause
the fourth-quarter production is out of line with fourth-qus,rter pro
duction in previous years and because the announced percentage increases
of 12.5 percent and 13 percent for 1952 and 1953 do not result in the
announced 1953 production of 13.6 billion kwh.
3. Manpower..
Because manpower statistics concerning total employment for the
electric power industry are scarce and the available inf orma,tion is
conflicting and generally not on an equivalent basis, it was necessary
to construct a year-by-year tabular study based on the main body of
wog?kers (operation personnel i.n power plants) in bath the public
~ P. 12, above.
-~+0-
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utilities and industrial plants. A decreasing scale was established
for the number of workers per 1,000 kw in both categories based on
the expected reduction of public utility employees per 1,000 kw, and
the breakdown in capacity between public utility and industrial
plants was established for the years 19+6 through 1955? To the total
number of plant operating personnel was added an estimate for all
other employees -- those involved in transmission, distribution,
clerical, engineering, and administrative duties. This group is esti-
mated to be about ~-6 percent of the total employed by the industry.
On the basis of planned employment figures, it is estimated that the
range of error is between plus 10 and minus 5 percent. Estimated
employment in the electric power industry in Poland during the 19+6-55
period is shown in Table 8.*
* Ta le follows on p . ~+2 .
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Q T /~
APPENDIX C
GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE
Before 19+9, statistical yearbooks published by the government of
Poland provided much valuable information on the electric power indus-
try for such items as production, the number and size of plants, break-
down of consumption by various categories and by regions, and various
other factors. Since 19+9 this type of material has. not been pub-
lished or has not been available. In addition, much of the current
material is from sources having little technical knowledge of the
industry, with the result that many important items are not observed
or are reported in such form as to make them difficult to interpret.
Information is needed on the following:
1. Power plants -- particularly the larger ones -- on
installed capacity; production during a fixed period,
such as quarterly or annual7,y; marked changes in
equipment or .operating hours; and plans for enlarge-
ment.
2. New high-voltage transmission lines and their actual
or proposed interconnection to the existing network.
3? Electric consumption by principal classes of users
and particularly by specific industries which are
large users of power.
~+. Inputs, including quantity and source of equipment;
manpower; technical assistance; and investment
required..
Export and import of electric power across international
boundaries.
.Although the above gaps exist, it should not be inferred that in-
formation is completely lacking. There is a quantity of Information
available on the larger plants, some conflicting and some confirming,
but nothing to give the complete picture of each plant. The?remain-
ing gaps are large with only a smattering of information which is
difficult to piece together.
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souRCE REFERENCFs
A11. available sources have been explored, with the exception of
some Polish language materials. It is believed, however, that there
are no important omissions, because the Polish press, including
periodicals, newspapers, monographs, and statistical documents, was
comprehensively covered.
Below are listed the types of reports that were reviewed, al-
though not all of the reports were used in the final survey;
CIA Irite~nal Reports;
25X1A
Intelligence Community; Ar~gy (PW, Attache, and G-2 reports)
Navy (Attache reports) 25X1 A
Air
25X1 C
State (OIR and Embassy reports)
Not all types of the above reports will be found in the following
source list, although mar.~y~ have been used to form an over-all picture
of the existing situation.
The following two finished intelligence documents were used exten-
sively for comparison and helped to reduce gaps in intelligence; NIS,
chapter 1~+, section ~2, Fuels and Power, Sep 52, S/US ONLY, 25X1C
25X1 C
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Fuel.," have the following significance;
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Source of Information
Doc. - Documentary
1 - Confirmed by other so~a.rces
A - Completely reliable
2 - Probably true
B - Usua]~ly reliable
3 - Possibly true
C - Fairly reliable
1+ - Doubtful
D - Not usually reliable
5
- Probably false
E - Not reliable
F - Cannot be fudged
6
- Cannot be fudged
25X1A
25X1A
STATSPEC
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents b;y a staff
officer; or information extracted from such documents by a st,~,ff
officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary .'?
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing ~~n the
cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this re-
port. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the
evaluation on the cited document.
1. CIA. Map Library, no 7921+, F 307-21+, Map of the Main Electric
Transmission Lines,-1938, U. Eval. Doc.
CLA. FDB, translation no 37/1+9, 11+ Jun 1+9, Yearbook ~f the
Indust of Re enerated Poland, chap 5, part 3, C. '.Eval. Doc.
tr of Rocznik przem~yslo odrondzone~ Polski, 2d ed, 'Warsaw,
3?
1+ .
25 Mar
2. CIA. FDB, translation no 37/1+9, off. cit. (1, above .;
6. UN, ECE, Committee on Electric Power. E/ECE/EP/131,
Hydroelectric Potential in Euro e and Its Gross Technical
and Economic Limits, 1 May 53, U? Ev~? ~ 2
-1+6-
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25X1A8a
9? CIA. FDB, translation no 37~~+9, off, cit. (l, above).
10. 2~~ X7FDD, Summary, no 85, 11 Mar 53, S. Eval. RR 2.
11.
CIA. Cux'r~nt Support Memorandum, no 155, 11 Aug 5~+, S.
12. Wiadomo~ci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 12, no 8,
Aug 53, p. 170-173, U. Eval. RR 2.
13? CIA. FDB, translation no 37~~+9, og. cit. (l, above).
1~+. R_ocznik statysty~zr~y~1~9 (Statistical Yearbook, 19+9),
Warsaw, 1950, U. Eval. Doc.
15.2~K~~(7
16.
25X1 A 17'
18. NIS 18 cha 6 sec 62
19 .
25X1 A2g 20
21.
25X1 A2g 22.
23. o s Panned Econo Warsaw, 19 U. -Fuel, RR 2.
2~+ .
25.
26.
STATSPEC 27. Rocznik statystyczny, 19+9 (Statistical Yearbook, 19+9),
25X1A
STATSPEC
Warsaw, 1950, U. Eval. Doc.
29? UN, ECE. Economic Survey of Europe in 1951, Geneva, 152,
30.
31.
32?
33?
25X1A 3~+?
35?
36.
CIA. FDD, "Closer Integration of Soviet Bloc Economies
Planned," Summary, no 308, 14 Dec 5~+, C. Eval. RR 2.
(tr from SBZ Archiv, Cologne, 25 Sep 5~+)
CIA.. FDB, translation no 37 ~+9 0 cit . 1 above
UN, ECE. E ECE 151, E ECE~EP~126, Transfers of Electric
Power Across European Frontier&, 1 Aug 52, Geneva, U.
Eval. RR 2.
- ~+7 -
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25X1A
~+~' . Ibid .
25X1 X7 ~3 ? CIA. FDB, translation no 37~~+9, op. cit . (l, above
25X1 X7 ~~ '
~
25X1X7
+5. CIA. FDB translation no 37 9, o cit.
~+6 .
Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 1 , no , u ~+
~+7. Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 13, no 7, Jul 5~+,
U. Eval. RR 2.
48 .
~+g .
5a.
51..
52?
STATSPEC 53,
5~+
55?
56.
5i'
5g?
U. Eval. RR 2.
Wirtschaftsdienst, vol 5, no ~+ (~+2), Apr 53, U. Eval. RR. 2.
Wiadomosci elektrotechnicz_ne, Warsaw, vol 13, no 7, Jul 5~+,
U. Eval. RR 2.
Ibid., vol 12, no 8, Aug 53, p. 170-173, U. Eval. RR 2.
dio Free Europe. Item. no 1125~+~53~ 5 Nov 53, U. Eval. RR 3.
Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol. 12, no 8, Aug 53,
p. 170-173, U. Eval. RR 2.
59.
Ibid.
6a .
Energie Technik, Leipzig, vol ~+, no 7, Jul 5~+, U. Eval. RR 2.
25X1A
61.
Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 12, no 8, Aug 53,
62.
25X1A
Stolica, Warsaw, vol 8, no ~+1, 11 Oct 53, U. Eval. RFC 3.
63
6~.
65.
Federal Power Co~i.ssion. 5-103, Statistics of Electric
Utilities in the United States, Washington, 1952, p. iii,
U. Eval. RR 2. --
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25X1A
25X1X7
25X1A2g
66. UN, ECE. Mon t~ly Coal. Statistics, Coal Division, vol 1,
no 1, Sep 52, U. Eval. RR 2. '
67? Wiadomosci elektrotechniczne, Warsaw, vol 12, no $,
Aug 53, p- 170-173, U. Eval. RR 2.
68. -Ibid.
69? Laskow, J. E_nergetyka w planie 6 letnim (power in the Six
Year Plan), Warsaw, 1952, U. Eval. RR 2.
70, UN, ECE. Monthly Coal Statistics, Coal Division, vol 1,
no 1, Sep 52, U. Eval. RR 2.
71. Laskow, off. cit. (69, above).
72. Prze ad elektrotechniczne, vol 23, no 8, 21 Aug ~.7,
U. Eval. RR 2.
73? Polish National Economic Plan (1 Jan ~+6-31 Dec ~+9), Warsaw,
75
76.
77?
78 .
79?
80.
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
91.
92.
93?
9~+
95?
- ~+9 -
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