The Selin Group Meetings

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00972A000100410001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 31, 1968
• Content Type: MFR

Approved For Release 2000/05/23 A-RDP79B00972A000100410001-5
t CTt The Selin Group Meetings
31 January 1968
1. The study group organized by to examine the 25X1 A5a 1
bureaucratic features of Soviet ail.itary decision-ama g for Dr. Ivan
Solis, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Systems Analysis
(Strategic Programs), held its first meetings on 26 and 27 January in
Dr. Selin'e office. The group consisted of three academic experts on
organizational behavior and a dozen or so specialists on Soviet military
affairs fr m several government agencies. The academic experts were
Professors Bower and Christensen of Harvard, and Bush of California.
The goverment specialists included Colonel Fitzgerald, former U.S. Army 25X1A
MWEW in Moscow, Colonel Scott, also a former attache, 25X9A8
Bob Kilmarx of the Air Forces, and the
following representatives froaa CIA all members of the Office of Strategic
Reeeareht
2. The purpose of the discussions was to give the academic experts
some some of the scope and limitations of our knowledge concerning
the workings of the Soviet military establishment, and some feeling for
the nature of the evidence available for the projected study. To this
end a series of briefings was presented by members for the Office of
Strategic Research to cover various aspects of the problem as defined
by Dr. Selin in discussions with Bruce Clarke. These briefings served
to structure the agenda of the meetings, and provided the take-off
points for lively discussions. The topics of the briefings, and the
rsons giving them, worst
'or . Organization of Soviet Arxsa5
The Wilitary-industrial Bureaucracy --
25X1A9a
Military ?xpenditures by Mission and Organization
The Political Context of Soviet Policy Decisions
The High Command and Military Career System: --
25X1A
25X1A9a
25X1A9a
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 Approved For Release 2000/05/23: B00972A000100410001-5
3. The meetings cannot but have impressed the academic exports
with the enormous cc lexities of the subject and are likely to have
pro*pted some reconsiderations of the feasibility of the project as
originally conceived. It seems evident to those of us who sat through
mat of the meetings that the study is unlikely to produce the kind
of results ttt Dr. Seliu apparently had hoped to achieve,. namely,
judgments about Soviet behavioral patterns that would be sufficiently
explicit and objective to serve an predictive factors in estimating
Soviet force structure and weapon systems developments. What he seems
likely to get, we eu psot, is a more general treatment of the subject
designed to provide a systematic framework for deeding with the
problem, and/or recomm dationa concerning avenues of research deemed
likely to contribute to the results he is seeking. Either or both of
these results would be a solid plus from our point of v
4. Us are eatifieed that our participation in the exercise was
Useful to us ,# and we believe that it contributed sometMSrg to Dr. Selin
and the study group. We beliseve that it will be in the Agencryte interest
to continue cooperating with the study group by giving assistance with
t to sources, etc., but we doubt that the results of the project
will be of such value as to warrant any substantial diversion of our
efforts from regularly scheduled tasks.
25X1A9a
Chief, Sy nds Branoh, SR/PA
Distribution
1 - Dr. Proctor
1 - D/OSR
1 - DD/OSR
2 - SR/PA 25X1A9a
2 - PA/S
OSR/PA/S jm/x5255
Approved For Release 2000/ A-RDP79B00972A000100410001-5