(SECRET) NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NO. 12, 'CONSEQUENCES OF THE EARLY EMPLOYMENT OF CHINESE NATIONALIST FORCES IN KOREA.' 12 DECEMBER 1950

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79R01012A000300050002-0
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
6
Document Creation Date: 
December 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 19, 2005
Sequence Number: 
2
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
December 19, 1950
Content Type: 
MF
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP79R01012A000300050002-0.pdf391.65 KB
Body: 
Approved For Release 2005/04/2ISV"'79R01012A0 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE HEADQUARTERS UNITED STATES AIR FORC WASHINGTON 25, D. C. Major General A. R. Bolling, Assistant Chief of Staff, G-2, Department of the Army Rear Admiral Felix L. Johnson, Director of Naval Intelligence Brig. General Vernon E. Megee, Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Mr. Victor P. Keay, Acting for Assistant to the Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation Dr. Walter F. Colby, Director of Intelligence, Atomic Energy Commission National Estimates, Central Intelligence Agency ME240RANDUM FOR: Mr. W. Park Armstrong, Jr., Special Assistant, Intelligence, Department of State Dr. William L. Langer, Assistant SUBJECT: (Secret) National Intelligence Estimate No. 12, "Consequences of the Early Employment of Chinese Nationalist Forces in Korea." 12 December 1950 which their forces in Korea will drive for a final military d Hence the initiative to take any and all possible countermeas our capabilities cannot be delayed in the hope of diplomatic that the Communists are in the process of buying further time, the Chinese Communist delegation and of Mr. Vishinsky, and th~ that negotiations may be resumed at some future date in Peipi troops than this paper would indicate. With the departure of consideration should be given to the question of utilizing Nat importance at this stage of delicate negotiations, the law of returns has already set in with respect to those negotiations, elusion. Whereas the political implications admittedly are of vital 1. In the original Draft of NIB No. 12 the military implication UEGIB appear to have been inadequately developed or weighed in the final con- 2. The amendments set out in Tab "A" are recommended. *USAF Declass/Release Instructions On File* J. ILI 1 I ncl US Tab "A" This nt cegoltains t ? fatten at`faatiat tb. Directorate of Intelligence natioi-l defense of t!e United Stag' 'Withi % li{ *~3xaf; Qs: .d' !' U%3%0* % Idviy5v4 Ui t si3 Gi7miEE5ent w ?. 1 deterr: c~ :hzt '49 793 and 794. Its trauamiaait D or to. CIA I= n~ ebje t e> to deatass t lion of its Gautenta tit auy tttaaxklr to #a Q it L;Cvi&ira io orr.sat n of 4iA ......Rrraa1 nommeast to mrehibitsd ltd 1$W. ?=,icre t flit muzi reoiain f1 25X1 W' 9 Approved For Release 20051041& en P79R01012A00030b Datef Approved For Release 2005/04/26 : CIA-RDP79RO1012A000300050002-0 S TS OF TH AV-n- .4TOR or ~~'. ?S'I+: ,lG ,+TOb; T3 S ~9 ,ao si,__. e o TO Efi~Y~nA 11C0Stu 12 DEMGM 1-19M SJ:.0R. T Anth, o j3Wi' Mob) I l.. The Director of lntolligonce, U.S.A. .e has .,reviewed patio. al Intelligence Estis to No. 12, and offers the following on, en&ientfig a* Raferea oo 1. and first sontciice as follows e ss he Chinese ',atios .isa$s have offered a task force of 33,000 troops for service In Korea and possibly could provide ~a- sae -n to abozat 153.,000 rs thout jeopardising the se ity of T .iu .E' b. ft9to Revise as fo'+ lows a "There is pp immodk&te c 19:Lq in Xoroa roq~aid~~ixa elan a Nationalist troo-as t?Dre- ~c~~at as, d~.aa.atre~rn bYa.a ~he3aee a ~ ~ ra~3.~~~xe~fi t? ba3 ~n ~s~ r~.'~'ss~u~irr sal~v ation. of ss nrati=Caammist Chinese forces both in Korea and on tae chiaxes s l-n a4.s os commitmelit d v_c~_ a ~~~tc~rs~lo of ect era yPae an imd. Posssibl.y the ontires Par Eastern sltua.tioa~s. _ 7e Chtne n FatLo -moo fo, u~ I~caes ~-%'e~~e~st~'ie3 onl ~-3s~bl~ a~ fox such el.ra ..,The ~51 ea a abaence of Chinese Nationalist troops in kore&, - e-~ a within the &medA&U r Lgj&K f uture ash la, ter ctou1d not be a major factor affecting the ability of UT. forces to establish and hold a defensive line across the peninsula against na rsssritmIly vastly superior Chinese Coca nist forcessp resvidasd M- t 9 ue d saisa'axeeenta direr 1 Approved For Release 205/04/26 : CIA-RDP79RO1012A000300050002-0 Approved FcRelease 2005/0d"qu 9R010 2000300050002-0 OWL ItU a. R, eren, co D? ,, r? 3. Add at end of paragraph as followaz "An inp,ortant requirement in Korea Is for additional infantry. _ us tionalist Ag ntFZ as a e9reon9_ _foree, tareeeut UN forces in Korea cogi be gad- csa effective a V a strik na forces. The defense of a beachhead reg r e a mobile gerye which can counterattack gnia~ at the volAte gf f?eatest a pressure." d. &?nfegenge g, 2. ter, d. Revise as follova8 west Chin.. Comseuniut forca2 art now deulo"d in North gQrea pad Manchuria. If hosti - itiee between the US and Communist China wore to spread beyond Korea, gr should the Chines Nationalists independently initiate operations on tha+ Min]an e the commitment of Chinese Nationalist forces in ?Korea would re- duee Chinese Nationalist offensive capabilities for carrying out operations on the mainl?cac1.? such as supporting anti-Ce ann ist ,guerrilla operations, On the other hand, utilizaation of Nationalist troops in Korea won to to contgin greater numbers of Communist forces in Korea. whether or not tRh f htiWhas Lread,_ Such containment in additiogmould leaseg the reoti met for orcec! or?p.ction on the araig.anj.s e, Ro?erence p, 2, nary 5. Amend first sentence and add a new sentence as followas "Whatever the military- outcome in Korea, the employ- meat of Chinese Nationalists there would, in the eyes of other nations, further identify the US with the Chinese Nationalists and would constitute as devot moral commitment for continuing US support of the Chinese Nationalist regime, Since this moral commitment would at the same time id` etffr U.S. intentions to s_aapuort anti-Communist forces within its c " bill. ties, it would, have a ositive pezghologieal effect of potential, ly treat valet thjaou&out Asia and the rest of theXorld." Approved For Release 2005/04/24: CIA-RDP79R01012A000300050002-0 Approved Fo elease 20056t%&_ P79R010t 000300050002-0 f. Fe&f rence R L- a and In par. B. Revise as follovss. *W ou cart to ue re the non.?aoas uniet world for such 4S 2141M. a major. Sty of UN nations would probably reject a US proposal to use Chinese Nationalist troops in Korea. There is a general apprehension that the smployment of Chinese Nationalist troops in.Norea would give impetus, or at least provide the pretext, for increased militancy on the part of Con. monist China. Uesuite the repea ed assurance of the US'UN to respect the t i Brat ns the 3 an8 nes st militan - 23 bas a shy reached a hiati level in committiaee the Fourth pi reers1snts the best available Chinese Oarnmist mill difficult to AMA= nev form which this militsn could take. 11aaw- -Usne w IfterEforeg there voua,d be little increase in the danger of a general war with Communist China, which #et-turaQm} t-de~sebe~ *M -Aeba&-ww alneft exists. This, too, will have 13~edireect effect ItoMt f development of a lobe -+ fir. XEG-MA#ilOMg Altho94, at least is the beginning, the Western Naropesn nations ws"d MA&I feel strongly that the US was jeopardising the first-priority task of defense of the Rnropean continent by be+soatng-iaveived a coat nq? ivo~-emet-t in protracted hostilities in Asia, it is unlikely that those nations would withdraw their troops cad active suVDort fwon Korea,. They mis}-t am to a of ate the determiggtJon of the US to take constraati% actl.% in an area vi ortsn in t e OARIAst S vi t t d Co?manist 19=11612A. The employment of the Chinese Nationalists vot4d sOidt alienate those elements n certain other Asiatic countries,, Mhteh Approved For Release 200 jP79ROlOl 2 A000300050002-0 ~ LI Approved F r Release 2005 DP79RO1 01W O00300050002-0 who consider the Chinese Nationalists to be reactionary, palitioally incas?etsnt, and already repudiated by their own peopple, on t other viii to ra-ist w- t "W62169. +tdateea#-tip- iaa-iti MIG 22M ieee-t:a3~s#-tae?pa-+Few3~4~g-thy-~Feeiia~a. In addition. ti d t ? t' i e t stand in Koreas,._theE yi12-be XV-0 L ggW a T they reoomise this as themseleres. ~ . g. Egarogg .. 3. ar,.: T. Amend as follows& Ngt -a ire? o! delicate nag atiat, tioae the use of Chinese I ationalist troops in Korea Yen~1d-- ?. te$ea-mss-a~~t-eee~#t-e~ might have ura udise d a political solution of the Korean c onfiict derivinSthose new .them~L--Ss>edt-fiha9-Cezamne~,ot--a#ee!-dh +~e~-Beget-staeSeg3e-epee Vf~e's'r..?~``-?~e~~1--e~ e{+bie~e~.a~5s.?a~-~-?e~t-ea~t~-~?~-~0~~'~-~~ E This ronld not necessarily have arealud??. howev er. a later uoiitiaal. .It, ]anent. It was. theraf 3 1 uoliticai solution Yore gym. But since Chinese Coamist iptersaation a ssioa BeIg As r o f1da- -Ed singe itiaai of tion derir Ina Irantoresont negotiations now Mears either_ ossibie or too 10 ed to be ei'fept . the sheM-ailitary and nsrcho gg Ndsap " o the use of se N tionalis torces in orea and freei t 4 Approved For Release 2005/0-4/M6 - CIA-RDP79RO1012A000300050002-0 Erek, Approved F r elease 2a RDP79RO1 1 000300050002-0 restraints imposed bir the U.S. urevsatf them f . Am3tixta auaainat the Chinese mtnlsud~ vapid appear to ontwei other gmsidsratso" If minimum interests of the MS-UN are to be g#e is Asiae mill aid In the deterioration of our sent tan IMAO view of Chinese Communist vninerabilittee and the votenat for axel.oit.. atlon Chinese snti-Commnist forces with U S d as t eonsiderablo.? ' b. _RjCjLr_ence P. 3. Mar,, S. - Delete entire paragraphs "mss NBIEsS~4-ee~ws~tse~a-]~asss~ . . . ~ea~t~st~g_,s Approved For Release 2005/04/26 : CIA-RDP79RO1012A000300050002-0