NIE-78

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01011A000800040004-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 2000
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: November 11, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Relea20/($/: GIA-RDP79S0101'Q4 00800
Noveslber a1
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
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To: CIA '..r t*,, ["
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draft will make clear th ! f
meeting,
we offer as a.n s1tt.e at .,re 1" ~:x
ropresentativeS? clean:. n
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? ?": oe-ir consideration prior to thl agenoy
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its A. 4- -P ).T1 ?040 IS- .-:_ .- _ t.. ..
dish to present for disevasia r,-at thee
The .a is of o,,; * z x UA ; is sn i s the idea that interl.l igct, V cannot
for so long a #~erlo' .i3 "430 *'*,1 &3 forecast the intention and Cpl -ilities ' of
the S. Pr e,~e t 3n3 M,:
V"' pie done guides to develop t oft S eapab .iti a
over the next five Yaar l Or roc r } for the following years of the period it
is beyond the eoi a ~.=. pace of a t 1 i ;c n oe~ to guess at national pot r except
in tests of al~enlat vas, e >.lt azmative would have to be of eoch div f.t i
as to bewilder a re:-der. J 3 f be f ,re feel tI at the element of r Lative
capabilities, ' sett not? rt actiosn toe erna2 US poll iaa,
be omitted fro st `NlZ- . 'i ? Corr :nr,uencs is that the soope of the' paper nuist
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result Is a raker t,.r}}re ci tr$ P"cLure, given' that is,, the 13rrit g omiss on
of possible fro c: t ng(i fl 3 ac}?.ion.
.
situation, and s loorc thee. ca A ; nc~rt of flee gftneral
t3 T
00neiderab2,y 17QT that o .. ; I ufte In effect the ONE draft a blishrewe a
rlOre in Part I0 ~ "Pi' joo t Or 1 ,. er -)t T!-ends," cued in Part Ix, rr ssible
New `envelop fteni " r tg ge. e ;. a w it bpi which night distort this "normrtal
Prospect, Our Ara, irad, , ,;c i st d th , some of these urimppy ~ravents
riot c xc bons t c g e 1* 10-10 al c:Qn SOaV.nce8 of the present f"ores
Seaot dlyw it
tai 1?I tie c sc ,I? .t the substance of ?nx" i draft diffe
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determined that ofrlo46oM to dwell
A has as t 04A
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PI 7rNFOP.MATI interest that must
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cias$itled at HR 104
Atharttyt thine of CIA lowed n It contatas Ita ~_ teWar J!Y+Z'`~"-"
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : GIA-RDP79S0100fst 800040004-4
 Approved For Rel'eas 000/08/29 CIA-RDP79SO101 1AQ008000400O4-
and capabilt lee of
'to nr ? ty In 'onsrtion
factors are to et y;e~',_ t r
certain of the
capabilities
and capabilities. T
will depend?tx!art the
4 M _ T: DFA. :;a use they believed h- t a. l estarh
TOP SECRET
Secu ?.k- i.~t LS3. E3 Y. f9? ttc,n
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000800040004-4
 Approved-For-Release 2000108/29 : CIA-RDP79SO1011A0008000400044
TOP SECRET
Securi t ra`f cin ,a ,on
110
attack impended and was unavoidable when such was not in fact the case*
the possibility of such Soviet. action would probably be increased by
:Largo scale rearmament in West, Gem ax) v or by any o ther impending de..
-velopment~ which the Kremlin thought likely to lead to an irreversible
adverse shift in. the balance of Fast est power,
120 Acceptance of Risk of Wai The Kremlin vril.l be willing to
take whatever action it cons:i_'crs noces,sa cy. to maintain eyc sting Com-
munist regimes in power In the USSR, the European satellites (exclud-
ing Albania), and China, regardless of the risk of general war involved.
West/orn movos that threatened to extinguish Communist power in North
Korea or Indochina. would probably be mot by external. Communist military
counter action,, to the limit of Conjunni st capabilitieso
. If the
oviet rulers do not consider themselves forced by Western
moves to choose between a greater resort to force and some land of re-
treat, they will. probably continue an opportunistic prosecution of the
cold war they probably believe that the Vest cannot indefinitely con
taro, much legs satisfy, the aspirations of emerging groups in the under-
developed countries, and that consequent- instabil.ity'will sooner or
later bring Communism to powet in an increasing nwaber of these countries.
They probably expect that this accession' wall, together with internal
weaknesses and` external divisions, evehtual.ly undermine the resistance
be anxious to expose their power base to, the increasingly, destructive'
of Western Europe to Communist pressure and subveision. They will not
Release 2000/08/29 : CIA.-:RDP7;9S01011A000800.040004-4
 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000800040004-4
iecuxYity 1nf'r~r ti.on
4: i a can also arise through a :i!m;:cai
cuic Lion by either side, cmries of actions and coun-tcr-
aC tions that neither o-J.de, xso,?-:Uri tv'ty started if it had e ected this to
develop, into general wa:r. :i" of such a mj scalcula tion i s :for>>i ect
the fact that ideologi.cel and the iron Curtain prey?rent
zt,r l relations beth:o n t. e Bloc ~I.r:ct the rest and .impee the accea of
Cog ri ct in#'arraation about :: t"aa t to the Bloc.
TOP SECRET
Sean n o a-46n
power of rtconventiow l wecpons merely in order to accelerate this process.
On the other hand, they undoubtedly view some external Communist action
~.:a an indisporlsaab? e ca talys +:. to ti oil of this process., and they will
not be deterred from its k) 'V tho, fact that it .involvee major
ri
.skso , They will be the more, to ".sstai?e these risks when they bo-
. iF v, that their c _cn is t n offset or f ntetrafe a major Cain
in t ze Western power p si io; -,.
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 CIA-RDP79SO1011A000800040004-4
 .., ~..
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