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Document Creation Date: 
December 19, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 8, 1999
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Publication Date: 
October 5, 1955
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Approved For Release 2006/11105 :CIA-RDP79T00937A000400020018-7 ._..~.n1 CENTRAL I N T E L L I C~ E N C E A G E N C Y OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTID~ITES ,~ October 1955 UMENT Nb. ~----~----' ? nln GE IN ClA'SS. ~ STAFF D~AANOtA[ NO? (~55 a u~4v+a CLALSS. CHANGE ~ TS ~ SUBJECT: The Short-term ~tlook for ArgentinaRUTMR HR o ~~~~ DATE: ~~~w~A: ~,,, The rebel forces which ousted Peron are soli consolidating their position9 so the pattern of the new Argentine government is not yet clearo Political power nape testa in the hands of an anti Peronista military ,~uYrta? Mayor mineral Eduardo Lonardi, a compromise selection by the junta?s army and>navy factions heads the caretaker goveraamenta Neither Lonardi, his military supporters, War his predomi- nately civilian cabinet can be clearly-identified With any political party, but it is clear from the personalities involved arnl the policies thus far expounded that the present regime represents a shift to the right in Argentine politics from a gover~araent dependent an and supported by labor to a more bourgeois type of regime, 20 The 3unta?s immediate problem is to achieve and maintain political stability. Thaugh Lonardi fias s p~oni~tademrilitary atxl poli? in solidifying his position by outing the amising tical leaders, granting amnesty to political prisoners, and pr to hold free elections as soon as possible, it is not at all certain that he 1ri7.1 continue to head the governmento Within the 3unta his position is threatened by interservice rivalri~rd3 rbeyma,insk~ravS~sional over policies and appointments, As long as ~aresidentf Argentina will probably contaLnue tc make progress towa~ uld the restoration of domeatic~t~d probably assumetdirecticontrol and halt he fall! hrnrever, the army P theseltrenodfsfactionalism wikthin the ~unta,mcivil~war and even tYbesreturn a res alt of Peron are possibilities, ~ This memorandum has been ccardinated with OCI? Approved For Release 2006/11105 :CIA-RDP79T00937A000400020018-7 Approved For Release 2006/11105 :CIA-RDP79T00937A000400020018-7 30 1'he greatest potential source of trouble for the junta i~a the prnnerful general Confederation of Labor ~Cf~T), rlxich xaa Peron's principal political propo Lonardi has made a bid for labor sugport by promising to honor a1]. social benefits and collective bargaining agreements, to respect union rights, and to take no "executive aetian" ta~rards depriving the CGT of control of the nexspaper LA PRENSA9 con fiscated by the Peron regime in 195. arui made the official organ of the GGTo Lespite such concessions, the G(iT hsa made no announcement of allegiance to the nex regime. .~tegardless of Rhother Lonardi continues to head the government, xe believe the military will be capable of suppressing aniy serious labor oppositionp 1~. Inasmuch as the return to political normalcy i+rila. be a long and difficult process, Argentina faces gov?rnment by a military junta far a protracted ,periods Lor~rdiss promise to hold elections within s3.x or eight months appears unrealistic and unattainable in the light of the presently disorganised political situata.ono First the 3unta must face the task of dismantling the Peronista party, which won 63 percent of the vote in the 1951 elections and 66 percent in 195Zta The only a~i-~'eronista party of arty nu~aerical consequence is the Radiaai Civic Union, a middle class, nationalistic party xhich polled about 30 percent of the vote in the last election, but which is badly split and has thus far shorn little talent for improvising either parties or coalitionso Though. tY~e Radical party xi7a, probably play an important role xhen Argentina returns to constitutional government, we believe it will be more than a year before free elections can be hello 1"hs junta is currently divided an the elections problem; the army rants to gait at least a year and a half while the navy demands elections w3.thin six manths4 5o The present regime, dominated by devout Catholics, hopes to settle the church problem by getting a Concordat with the Vaticana Peranes anti-church policies may be replaced with equally extreme pro m church policiesq If this should happen, the gavernmerlt would alienate segments of the Radical party as well as the anticlerical Socialist party and thus make the return to constitutional governa~nt more diffi~ cult than evero chile there have been resent indications of the smarm gence of a Christian Democratic movement such a prospect is at best a long range possibilityo ('t'1NCIt1CRlTlnr Approved For Release 2006111/05 :CIA-RDP79T00937A000400020018-7 Approved For Release 2006/11105 :CIA-RDP79T00937A000400020018-7 6o Lanardi has expressed his concern over the problem of Communism and has indicated that his government ~rl.11 not be soft on th~.s issue. The Communist Party can be expected to oppose the present government, but it is not likely that i t vi.l]. be able to play a determin3,ng role is argentine po73tias during the neat six months. The Communists, however, will probably take advantage of any opportunity to aggravate a crisis situations 7. The regime faces serious eacnamic problems. Export earnings have been insufficient to finance imparts Qssential to meet current needs and economic development pra3eats. Difficulties in marketing farm products have led Argentina to expand trade With the Sins-Soviet Bloc Which thus far has been unable to provide the various types of equipment needede The junta all.aared the Standard Oil of California contrast to lapse and has given indications that it might pursue a policy of economic nationalism. Fsconomic realities, ho~rever, may force the Argentine government to Welcome foreign capitals If the balance of pay~me~s problem deteriorates further, the Lonardi government will probably seek economic assistance from the US governmentp The grnrern? ment can be expected to resist the adopt3.on of any measures likely to have serious inflationary resultao 8. Lonardi has expressed a willingness to maintain friendly relations with the [united States. Soar?ver9 the presence of strong nationalists in key government positions and the possibility that the anti~US Radical party Will have increasing influence in Argentine politics makes it probable that the present Argentine go~rernmerit will be leas Willing to follane the United States lead in promoting hemispheric soli? darity and coaperationo Zt appears unlikely that the present goverxmnent ~+r3.11 continue to pursue pre=revolt Argentine overtures far a Military Defense Assistance Panto Though Argentina ~oi11 probably continue to support the US an important political questions on ~rhich the US and the USSR are opposed, she will be lass likely to cooperate on international economic problemsa 25X1 Approved Far Release 2006111l05~ t?11~RC7P7JT00937A000400020018-7