THE OUTLOOK FOR GREECE

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030023-0
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
5
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 12, 1999
Sequence Number: 
23
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
June 13, 1957
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030023-0.pdf242.24 KB
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Approved For Releas 2000/08/07: CIA-RD1579T06937A000W0030023-0 CENTRAL INT:LLIGENCE A03}a~ C X OFFICE OF NATIONAL C 5TINATES Q June 1957 StM NE lOP.NJDUM NO. 334-57 SU 3J. Ts The. OutlooI:x for Graze Ir Thera has been little or nc real change in tlz Oroah sitter :ration since approval of NIE 32-56r, e Outlook for Gracce X11 On 26 June 1956. The time-tofour- yo r projection of tre .a con- tained in that estiraata continues lit our opinion to pr ovido sound igenca support for policy forznuIation. NIE 32-5-6 predicted intel] ? at the Gr;se It . over nt would remn in nor Coiiunist hands and pro U$, pro-4Jtate n orientation at least for the fia3 i^ basic Pe .ad off: the estii ata. However,, it also; (a) indicated the 1ikeli- hoca of inch easing political controversy and, nanei ver in which leftist and n* utraliatt eln ti ntr3 would gain strength; (b) di co ted rho pros- peat; fO s:*,-r s1icant oconor'ii . advance;; and c) enphasas :.l the epos t annce of the C rras issue ar, a factor affecting the tenure of ?;- This memorandum undort ten in support of a forgo air,g Planning Board consideration of Gres 4:s has ben prepared with the assistance of th, Grr ok specialist in 001 and has also sn coordinated with DD/P. bOCUMENT NO. - 3-7 NO CHANGE IN CLASS. Q A DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE: AUTH: HR Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP79T00AffN. Approved For Releas 00/08/07: CIA-RDP79TOO937A0005 0023-0 SECRET they Karamanlis government and Greek relations with the US and the other NATO powers. While stressing the continuing difficulties in achieving a Cyprus settlement, the estimate calculated tilat there was about an even chance that some formula would be agreed on "within the next year or two." 2. They principal modifications in the situation since issuance of NIE 32-56 are as follows: a. Political Stability Prime Minister Karamanlia has had remarkable success in holding his parliamentary majority together in the face of continuing opposition attacks., largely because of US support in getting an acceptable Cyprus resolution through the UN this spring and because Greeks in general believe that Karamanlis retains the US seal of approval. ale he has suffered only four outright defections, various of his key associates have developed strong ambitions of their owns and other members of the loosely organized government party are proLably prepared to jump ship if the right deal comes along. In addition., Karamanlie is opposed by the powerful Bodossakis->Lambrakis industrial and publishing combine and is being undercut by the British.. who cherish hopes of obtaining a goverment more amenable on the Cyprus issue. SECRET Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030023-0 Approved For Release 2(00/08/07 : CIA-RDP79T00937A00050030023-0 . SECRET Karamanlist position will probably remain secure until parliament reconvenes on 15 October, Thereafter, no ,x.11 probably face intensified efforts to break up his majority and to force new elections under a less faa,~:-Rble election law than that under which he was able to squeak through to victory in February 1956. Since neither Karamanlie nor the now reunited Liberal Partty--b:Ls principal rival-appears capable of securing a clear majority, new lections would probably hasten the return to the coalition politics of the pre-Papagos era, Such developments will provide increased opportunities to the Communist-backed left, though these opportunities may be more limited than was suggested in NIE 32-56. The centrist opposition has made persistent efforts to remove the taint of its 1956 olectora3, collaboration with the far left, thus reducing the latter s united front pros.- pects, There has been little indication of any increase in existing leftist strengths On the extreme right, the secret military organization, IDEA, now appears to have considerably less potential influence than was suggested Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030023-0 Approved For Release 00/08/07 : CIA-RDP79TOO937A0005000 0023-0 SECHET in NIE 32-56. It has been greatly weakened by military transfers in the last years and barring a serious threat of a leftist takeover in Greece appears unlikely to play an active role in Greek politics. bd The Cyprus Issue Emotions on the Cyprus issue have eased somewhat follow- ing the conclusion of the UN debate and the release of Archbishop Makarios, thereby facilitating the various moves now under way toward promoting a settlement. However., there has been a hardening of Turkey's attitude on Cyprus, wt- amplified by its demands for partition and the virtual ultimatum handed Greece on the eve of Makarios8 return to Athens warning against an excessive show of official sup- port for him. Moreover, the British remain auspicious of both the Greek government and Makerios and reluctant to make further concessions. Although chances of an agreement emerging in the course of the next year still appear about evens they are no better than that. And while the Greek government in particular will. probably try to avoid a serious flareup of Greek-Turkish tensions,, pride or popular emotions on either or both sides may still precipitate another crisis. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030023-0 4. P. y Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP79TOO937AO0050WO023-0 ca Greek Regional Policies Although Greece endorsed the Eisenhower Doctrine,' its attitude toward Middle East questions continues to be strongly influenced by its suspicions of Turkey and its fear of Turkey's entrenching itself as the chosen instrument of US policy in the area. The most recent manifestations of this attitude were the strong Greek plea to Ambassador Richards for US support in developing its own ties and in- fluence in the Arab states and accompanying criticism of US reliance on Turkey and the Baghdad Pact. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030023-0