THE OUTLOOK FOR GREECE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030023-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 1999
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: June 13, 1957
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INT:LLIGENCE A03}a~ C X
OFFICE OF NATIONAL C 5TINATES
Q June 1957
StM NE lOP.NJDUM NO. 334-57
SU 3J. Ts The. OutlooI:x for Graze
Ir Thera has been little or nc real change in tlz Oroah sitter
:ration since approval of NIE 32-56r, e Outlook for Gracce X11 On
26 June 1956. The time-tofour- yo r projection of tre .a con-
tained in that estiraata continues lit our opinion to pr ovido sound
igenca support for policy forznuIation. NIE 32-5-6 predicted
intel]
? at the Gr;se It . over nt would remn in nor Coiiunist hands and
pro U$, pro-4Jtate n orientation at least for the
fia3 i^ basic
Pe .ad off: the estii ata. However,, it also; (a) indicated the 1ikeli-
hoca of inch easing political controversy and, nanei ver in which leftist
and n* utraliatt eln ti ntr3 would gain strength; (b) di co ted rho pros-
peat; fO s:*,-r s1icant oconor'ii . advance;; and c) enphasas :.l the
epos t annce of the C rras issue ar, a factor affecting the tenure of
?;- This memorandum undort ten in support of a forgo air,g Planning
Board consideration of Gres 4:s has ben prepared with the assistance
of th, Grr ok specialist in 001 and has also sn coordinated with
DD/P.
bOCUMENT NO. - 3-7
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. Q
A DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR
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SECRET
they Karamanlis government and Greek relations with the US and the
other NATO powers. While stressing the continuing difficulties in
achieving a Cyprus settlement, the estimate calculated tilat there
was about an even chance that some formula would be agreed on "within
the next year or two."
2. They principal modifications in the situation since issuance
of NIE 32-56 are as follows:
a. Political Stability
Prime Minister Karamanlia has had remarkable success
in holding his parliamentary majority together in the
face of continuing opposition attacks., largely because
of US support in getting an acceptable Cyprus resolution
through the UN this spring and because Greeks in general
believe that Karamanlis retains the US seal of approval.
ale he has suffered only four outright defections,
various of his key associates have developed strong
ambitions of their owns and other members of the loosely
organized government party are proLably prepared to jump
ship if the right deal comes along. In addition.,
Karamanlie is opposed by the powerful Bodossakis->Lambrakis
industrial and publishing combine and is being undercut by
the British.. who cherish hopes of obtaining a goverment
more amenable on the Cyprus issue.
SECRET
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. SECRET
Karamanlist position will probably remain secure
until parliament reconvenes on 15 October, Thereafter,
no ,x.11 probably face intensified efforts to break up
his majority and to force new elections under a less
faa,~:-Rble election law than that under which he was
able to squeak through to victory in February 1956.
Since neither Karamanlie nor the now reunited Liberal
Partty--b:Ls principal rival-appears capable of securing
a clear majority, new lections would probably hasten
the return to the coalition politics of the pre-Papagos
era,
Such developments will provide increased opportunities
to the Communist-backed left, though these opportunities
may be more limited than was suggested in NIE 32-56. The
centrist opposition has made persistent efforts to remove
the taint of its 1956 olectora3, collaboration with the
far left, thus reducing the latter s united front pros.-
pects, There has been little indication of any increase
in existing leftist strengths On the extreme right, the
secret military organization, IDEA, now appears to have
considerably less potential influence than was suggested
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SECHET
in NIE 32-56. It has been greatly weakened by military
transfers in the last years and barring a serious threat
of a leftist takeover in Greece appears unlikely to play
an active role in Greek politics.
bd The Cyprus Issue
Emotions on the Cyprus issue have eased somewhat follow-
ing the conclusion of the UN debate and the release of
Archbishop Makarios, thereby facilitating the various moves
now under way toward promoting a settlement. However., there
has been a hardening of Turkey's attitude on Cyprus, wt-
amplified by its demands for partition and the virtual
ultimatum handed Greece on the eve of Makarios8 return to
Athens warning against an excessive show of official sup-
port for him. Moreover, the British remain auspicious of
both the Greek government and Makerios and reluctant to
make further concessions. Although chances of an agreement
emerging in the course of the next year still appear about
evens they are no better than that. And while the Greek
government in particular will. probably try to avoid a
serious flareup of Greek-Turkish tensions,, pride or popular
emotions on either or both sides may still precipitate
another crisis.
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 4. P. y
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ca Greek Regional Policies
Although Greece endorsed the Eisenhower Doctrine,'
its attitude toward Middle East questions continues
to be strongly influenced by its suspicions of
Turkey and its fear of Turkey's entrenching itself
as the chosen instrument of US policy in the area.
The most recent manifestations of this attitude
were the strong Greek plea to Ambassador Richards
for US support in developing its own ties and in-
fluence in the Arab states and accompanying criticism
of US reliance on Turkey and the Baghdad Pact.
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