CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A003200400001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 16, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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:~Z_'00 16 August 1957
CURRENT
opy o0
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States
or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri-
ment of the United States.
State Dept. review completed
TOP SECRET
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2. YEMENIS FEAR CIVIL WAR OVER SUCCESSION
4. GREECE HOLDING DOOR OPEN TO TRIPARTITE CON-
FERENCE ON CYPRUS
.ANNEX=-Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence 25X1
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Advisory Committee
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2. YEMENIS FEAR CIVIL WAR OVER SUCCESSION
Comment on:
A widespread acceptance of the probabil-
ity that civil war may break out over the
choice of a successor to the ailing Imam
was reported by the American consul in
Aden after a recent trip to southern Yemen.
Anticipation of civil war has led to a revival in southern Yemen
of separatist leanings, which have been given further impetus
by rumors
The northern tribal chiefs traditionally have
elected each new Imam, and refuse to recognize the Imam's des-
ignation of his son Badr as crown prince, The consul reports
that most members of the Yemeni ruling class with whom he
talked believed that Badr could not succeed to the throne with-
out foreign help, and that the tribal leaders favored the Imam's
brother, Prince Hassan, who heads the Yemeni delegation to the
UN. The consul concludes that some movement undoubtedly is
under way to reverse the present extension of Soviet influence
in Yemen and to prepare the ground for the succession of Prince
Hassan.
The consul also reports a widespread ex-
pectation of Egyptian, Soviet, or possibly Saudi intervention in
support of Badr, who undoubtedly hopes to support his bid for
power with newly received Soviet arms, assisted by Yemen's
Soviet advisers. Meanwhile, Egyptian propaganda, portraying
the USSR as the supporter of Arab independence, appears in-
creasingly successful in convincing the mass of Yemenis that
the. Soviet arms and technicians are needed to resist British a -
gression on the Aden border. F77
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4. GREECE HOLDING DOOR OPEN TO TRIPARTITE
CONFERENCE ON CYPRUS
Comment on:
Greek Foreign Minister Averoff is hold-
ing open the door to a tripartite confer-
ence on Cyprus in London next month,
but it is unlikely that the Greek govern-
ent will agree to attend without prior assurances which are
argely unacceptable to Britain. Britain is, however, now
filling to surrender sovereignty over Cyprus except for a
mall base area. Averoff replied on 7 August to the first Brit-
sh sounding by rejecting the idea of a tripartite conference as
'quite inadequate" and involving "serious dangers." However,
e hinted that Greece might accept a British invitation if London
ould support independence for Cyprus with a guarantee against
change in the island's status either for a 20-year period or by
he consent of a majority of the UN or of NATO, or continuation
f British sovereignty with a plebiscite after ten years,
The initial Turkish reaction to the British
proposal was favorable, although the Turks also indicated a
desire for a prior understanding with London and have not for-
mally replied pending clarification of the Greek reaction. Ankara
remains firmly committed to partition for Cyprus and appears to
believe that London is bound to support its view; however, there
is some indication that the Turks recognize the general lack of
support for partition and are studying alternative solutions, in-
cluding a three-power condominium and even guaranteed inde-
pendence. Nevertheless, the Turks are certain to balk at any
solution which is intended to leave the way open to the eventual
union of Cyprus with Greece.
Despite the questionable prospects for a
tripartite conference at present, the three governments appear
to be approaching an area of agreement.
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ANNEX
Watch Report 367, 15 August 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against the continental US or its possessions in
the immediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against US forces abroad, US allies or areas periph-
eral to the orbit in the immediate future.
C. Early deliberate initiation of hostilities by Israel or the
Arab states is not probable. Although tensions continue
between the Arab states and Israel and among certain
Arab states themselves, these are not likely to lead to
serious conflict in the immediate future.
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