CONTINUED MOMENTUM OF SOVIET MILITARY ASSISTANCE IN 1963

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A001900090001-1
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• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 3, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 1, 1964
• Content Type: BRIEF

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SECRET
FOREIGN DISSEM
Current Support Brief
CONTINUED MOMENTUM
OF SOVIET MILITARY ASSISTANCE IN 1963
CIA/RR CB 64- 14
February 1964
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
NO FOREIGN DISSEM
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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CONTINUED MOMENTUM
OF SOVIET MILITARY ASSISTANCE IN 1963
Soviet military aid and technical assistance programs in under-
Advancvel, wjthst apon ding
developed countries* in 1963 remained 1961a -6 high
some decline from the record pace
systems, such as surface-to-air 2. es
mis missileee(re delivered inrincreasgngdn um-
bers, boats, and MIG-21 jet fighters, the hers, with Syria and India receiving undeort kenf with at1least
Negotiations for new military aid
esting a continued high level of Soviet
su
gg
10 underdeveloped countries,
f re ayments and pressure to
The burden o p
purcha the level
extend maturities will increase during 1964 equipment s both the
ddition
d
a
of maturities continue to rise an
1. Military Assistance Agreements and Deliveries
As of 31 December 1963 the approximate value of Soviet military
assistance agreements with underdeveloped deliveries a cuentsa-
tive total of $2. 7 billion, and actual dcumulated
at about $2. 5 billion * I'* The extensions and drawings umulated
Cuba as a recipient of Soviet military aid is not included in this
publication.
rv aid in 1964.
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by year are shown in the chart. As reflected in the chart, extensions
increased gradually until 1960-61, when they rose sharply -- largely
as a result of the Soviet-Indonesian agreements signed in those years.
'2000
USSR :MILITARY AID
''JOUNpERGEVELOPED COUNTRIES
CUMULATED BY YEAR, 1956-b3
1956 1957 195$ 1959 1960
39125 1-64 196, 1196,? 1963
The reduction in new extensions in 1962-63 reflects in part the time
needed by recipients to assimilate equipment that was ordered pre-
viously. Drawings rose gradually until 1962, when they swung sharply
upward to an unprecedented zenith as equipment was delivered under
the agreements reached in 1960-61. Shipments during the first half of
1963 declined from the pace of 1962, but deliveries from October until
the present have gained in momentum. At least 15 ships loaded with
Soviet military equipment arrived in the United Arab Republic (UAR)
in the period October-December 1963 compared with an average of 1
per month in 3 months preceding October. In the same period, other
ships with military cargoes went to Algeria, Guinea, India, Iraq, Syria,
and Yemen. By the end of 1963 the value for the year of all military
deliveries to the underdeveloped countries had reached approximately
$560 million.
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2. Military Technical Assistance and Training
Another factor evidencing the momentum of the Soviet military aid
program in 1963 is the sustained impetus of the military technical assist-
ance and training activities for personnel of the underdeveloped countries
provided both in the USSR and in recipient countries. The number of
Soviet technicians resident in underdeveloped countries and the number of
trainees from recipient countries departing for training in the USSR fell
slightly below the peak levels of 1962, but they exceeded the numbers en-
gaged in these activities in other years, as shown in Table 1. It may be
Military Trainees Departing for the USSR
and Soviet Military Technicians in Underdeveloped Countries a/
1955-63
1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 b/
Military trainees
departing for
the USSR 190 15 315 590 905 705 3,3+0 3,960 3,600
Soviet military
technicians in
underdeveloped
countries c/ 0 200 380 835 995 1,010 1,520 3,500 3,000
a. Data are rounded to the nearest five.
b. Preliminary estimate.
c. The estimated number present for 1 month or more.
expected that as the ability of the recipient countries to assemble, main-
tain, deploy, and operate this equipment increases, some diminution in
training activity will occur. In fact, the level of assimilation in the re-
cipient countries has already increased, although no great decline in
the numbers of personnel involved in technical assistance and training
has yet been observed.
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3. Advanced Weapons Systems
Deliveries in 1963 continued to include the more advanced weapons
systems introduced initially in 1960-61. Surface-to-air missiles
(SAM's) were earmarked for the first time to India, and there have
been large deliveries of SAM equipment to the UAR, particularly in
the last 3 months of 1963. Additional Komar-class guided-missile
patrol boats were delivered to the UAR and Indonesia and for the first
time to Syria. The UAR and Iraq received more MIG-21 jet fighters,
and Syria and India received them for the first time. Several large
shipments of these fighters noted in the last weeks of 1963 went to
Syria and the UAR. Of total Soviet deliveries of these three weapons
systems to the European Satellites and to underdeveloped countries
(excluding Cuba), the underdeveloped nations received about 10 percent
of the SAM sites, at least 75 percent of the Komar-clas-s boats, and
40 percent of the MIG-21's.
4. Repayments for Military Aid
Known repayments on military aid indebtedness rose to a new high
of $126 million in 1963. Because payments are for indebtedness in-
curred from past arms deliveries, they are no gauge of current activity.
In spite of generous terms provided by the USSR, its military assist-
ance has taxed the fiscal ability of many of the recipient underdeveloped
countries. This situation has led to a continual process of renegotiation,
which usually has resulted in a further easing of the terms. In some
cases the USSR has written off parts of the indebtedness, and in others
it has eased repayment schedules. A prime example of the latter oc-
curred in June 1963 when the USSR and Indonesia signed a protocol
substantially reducing the latter's annual repayment obligations for
military aid by extending the repayment period. Drawings (after ap-
plicable discounts*--) and repayments made thus far on Soviet military
aid are shown in Table 2.
** That is, the amount that must be repaid by recipient countries.
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3A
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Payments by Underdeveloped Countries
on Drawings of Military Equipment
1956-63
Million US
Year
Discounted
Drawings
Repayments
1956
11
a/
1957
77
a/
1958
82
a//
1959
19660
835 9
30
1961
156
65
1962
482
75
1963
314
1
Total 1,246
a. Less than US I million.
About one-fourth of total indebtedness has been paid, but as grace
periods run out and obligations enter periods of high annual repayment,
the burden on recipients will become more onerous. * For example,
Moreover, as the recipients
purchase additional equipment, this burden continues to grow. There
is no evidence, however, that any prime recipient of Soviet military
aid will discontinue purchases in the next few years. The UAR, for
example, which may have ordered as much as $100 million worth of
arms in 1963, must assimilate this weaponry, knowing that repayment,
under present schedules, would be progressively more burdensome and
that it would concide with repayment of economic aid obligations which
will begin to mount more rapidly in 1965.
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5 -
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5. Prospects
In spite of some decline in new military aid extensions in the past
2 years -- not unusual for a program so responsive to exploitable oppor-
tunities and subject to the assimilative abilities of recipients -- the
substantial value and volume of agreements and deliveries, the continued
pace of the technical assistance and training programs, and the increased
deliveries of advanced weapons systems, all presage a continued high
level of Soviet military aid during 1964. The problem of repayments,
however, will loom larger for recipient countries. Indeed, the over-all
prospect is bleak for on-time future payments of military aid debts to
the USSR, and the USSR will be required increasingly to renegotiate
terms and schedules for major recipients.
It is unlikely, however, that increasing problems of indebtedness
will prevent the expansion of the Soviet military aid program in the next
few years. Continuing deliveries of ammunition and spare and replace-
ment parts will be required by recipient countries to service and main-
tain Soviet equipment already delivered. Negotiations for new agree-
ments in 1963 between the USSR and Afghanistan, Algeria, Ghana, India,
Indonesia, Iraq, Morocco, Syria, the UAR, and Yemen indicate un-
diminished willingness on the part of the underdeveloped countries to
receive Soviet military assistance.
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SUBJECT : Transmittal of Material
It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 64-14, Continued
Momentum of Soviet Mili Assistance in 1963, February 1964, Secret.N'Q
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For gabassies in Moscow, Frankfurt,, Landon,
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