REGIONAL IMPACT OF IRANIAN REVOLUTION: THE SMALLER STATES (S/NF)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002000090003-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 17, 2003
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: February 16, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM
16 February 1979
SUBJECT: Regional Impact of Iranian Revolution; the Smaller
States
The unfinished revolution in Iran has already had a major
impact on Persian Gulf governments, and its ultimate consequences
are still to be felt. Regionally, it has disrupted the power
balance among the three principal Gulf powers--Iran, Saudi
Arabia, and Iraq--and dislocated the unofficial security system
in effect since the withdrawal of British forces in 1971. It
is not yet clear what arrangement will take the place of the
US's two-pillar policy, but it is clear that Saudi Arabia,
alone, cannot take up the slack.
RP M 79-10095
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--The US will be expected to help ensure a conservative
political climate in the Gulf, but unobtrusively so as
to deny ammunition to Arab radicals; 25X1
--Area leaders will show stronger interest in security
cooperation and closer consultation among themselves
in recognition that their fates are linked.
How the smaller states ultimately adjust to the new un-
certainties will be influenced by their regional political
objectives, and by their perception of what threatens them
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Ideally, the small states want a Gulf free from big-power
presence and rivalry, a balance of power among the larger Gulf
states, and a conservative political climate that depends
locally on Saudi Arabia and internationally on the United States.
These views derive from the smaller states' weak position rela-
tive to larger neighbors, their monarchical, form of government,
and their fear of leftist subvetgrOn.r? 25X1
/ as is typical ot weak govern-
ments, the smaller states can be expected to maximize their
political options and avoid angering powerful neighbors,
especially by bilateral alliances.
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