PROGRAM OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES FOR PERIOD 1 APRIL 1954 TO 31 MARCH 1955

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000200010030-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Sequence Number: 30
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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-"'~ IAC-D-1 /7
1 April 1954
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
PROGRAM OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES
FOR PERIOD 1 APRIL 1954 TO 31 MARCH 1955
1. On 30 March, the IAC approved the attached quarterly
revision of the program of NIEs as a basis for scheduling
estimates under established procedures (IAC-M-146).
2. A list of estimates completed during the first quarter
of 1954 (Tab A) and a progress report on NIEs in process
(Tab B) are attached for information.
becretary
IAC-D-1 /7
1 April 1954
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1 April 1954
PROGRAM OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE. ESTIMATES
FOR PERIOD 1 APRIL 1954 TO 31 MARCH 1955
SECOND QUARTER
1..
Probable Outlook in Western Europe over the
Next Decade
(NIE 20-54)
2.
Probable Effects of Increasing Soviet Nuclear
Capabilities Upon the Policies of U. S. Allies
(NIE 100-54)
3.
Probable Developments in Spain
(NIE 27.1-54)
4.
Soviet Capabilities and Probable Soviet Courses
of Action through Mid-1956
(NIE 11-4-54)
5.
Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Policy through
(NIE 11-5-54)
Mid-1959
6.
Middle East Defense
(NIE 30-54)
7.
Communist China's Power Potential through 1957
(NIE 13-54)
8.
Probable Political Developments in Indonesia
through 1954
(NIE 65-54)
9.
Probable Developments in Taiwan
THIRD QUARTER
(NIE 43-54)
1.0.
Probable Developments in France
11.
Probable Developments in Italy
12.
Soviet Capabilities and Intentions in the Field
of Guided Missiles
(NIE 11-6-54)
13.
Probable Developments in the European Satellites
(NIE 12-54)
as they Affect Bloc Capabilities through Mid-1956
.
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14. Anti-Communist Resistance in the Soviet Bloc
15. Probable Developments in Iran
16. Probable Developments in the Arab States (NIE 36-54)
17. Probable Development (NIE 41-54)
18. The Caribbean Republics
FOURTH QUARTER
19. Estimate of the World Situation
20. Probable Long Term Developments of the Soviet
Bloc and Western Power Positions
21. Probable Developments
22. Probable. Developments in Austria
23. Soviet Air Defense Capabilities
24. Soviet Capabilities in Certain Weapons
25. Probable Developments in India
26. Sino-Soviet Relations
27. Probable Developments in Colombia
FIRST QUARTER 1955
28. Status of the Soviet Nuclear Energy Program
29. Soviet Capabilities for Attack on the U. S.
30. Probable Developmvnts in Greece
SECRET
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1 April 1954
(NIE 80-54)
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31. Probable Developments in Pakistan
32. Communist Courses of Action in Asia through 1956
33. Probable Developments in Venezuela
TENTATIVE
The following estimates may have to be programmed, during
this period. Precise scheduling will depend on the timing of relevant
developments.
34. Vulnerabilities of the Soviet Bloc
35. Yugoslavia
36. Indochina
37. Korea
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1 April 1954
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1 April 1954
ESTIMATES COMPLETED DURING FIRST QUARTER 1954
10 Series: Soviet Bloc
NIE 10-54:
NIE 10-2-54:
**SNIE 11-54:
*SNIE 11-2-54:'
NIE 11-3-54:
NIE 12.4-54:
Soviet Bloc Capabilities for Economic Warfare
Communist Courses of Action in Asia through
Mid-1955
Likelihood of General War with the USSR
through 1957
Soviet Capabilities for Attack on the U. S.
through 1957
Status of the Soviet Atomic Energy Program
Probable Developments in East Germany
20 Series: Western Europe
NIE 28.5-54: Probable Developments in Finland
50 Series: South Asia
**NIE 50-54: The Probable Effects of U. S. Decision to
Grant or Deny Military Aid to Pakistan
60 Series: Southeast Asia
NIE 66-54: Probable Outlook for the Philippines
80 Series: Caribbean Area
NIE 87-54: European Dependencies in the Caribbean Area
90 Series: South America
NIE 91-54: Probable Developments in Argentina
NIE 92-54: Probable Developments in Bolivia
Tab A to
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`fib A to
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100 Series: Miscellaneous
**SNIE 100-2-54: Korea
**NIE 100-3-54: Consequences of a Relaxation of Non-Com-
munist Control of Trade with the European
Soviet Bloc
Originally planned for IV Quarter 1954.
Production not anticipated or planned.
Tab A to
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PROGRESS REPORT ON
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES IN PROCESS
A.
Before the IAC Representatives
1
NIE 20-54. Probable Outlook in Western Europe over
.
the Next Decade
The IAC representatives will meet on a draft estimate
on 6 April.
2.
NIE 100-54: Probable Effects of Increasing Soviet
Nuclear Capabilities upon the Policies
of US Allies
The IA.C representatives held their first meeting on a
draft estimate on 31 March.
B. Awaitin Action by the Office of National Estimates
1. National Intelligence Objectives
A draft dated 19 March was circulated to interested CIA
offices for comment and to the Board for noting.
2. NIE 11-6-54: Soviet Capabilities and Intentions in the
Field of Guided Missiles
On 30 March, the IAC authorized and directed the pro-
duction of this estimate in response to requirements
received from the Assistant Secretary of Defense (R&D)
and the FCDA. A draft statement of the problem and
scope note are in preparation.
SECRET
Tab B to
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'''wo', b B to
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3. NIE 13-54: Communist China's Power Potential
through 1957
A preliminary meeting of the IAC representatives on
selected economic data was held on 9 March. Staff
draft was circulated to the Board on 31 March.
4. NIE 65-54: Probable Political Developments in
Indonesia through 1954
Staff draft was circulated to the Board on 1 April.
5. Post Mortem of 1953 Production
The IAC representatives met on a draft statement on
15 February. A revised text is in preparation.
C. Awaiting Departmental Contributions
1. NIE 11-4-54: Soviet Capabilities and Probable Soviet
Courses of Action through Mid-1956
The IAC representatives agreed on terms of reference on
26 February. Deadline for contributions is 1 May.
2. NIE 11-5-54: Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Policy
through Mid -19 59
On 30 March, the IAC authorized and directed the prepar-
ation of this estimate in response to an urgent oral NSC
Planning Board request. On the basis of paragraph 5c,
ONE memorandum dated 23 March, the IAC agencies are
extending their contributions to NIE 11-4-54 to cover the
requirements of this estimate.
3. NIE 12-54: Probable Developments in the European
Satellites as they Affect Bloc Capabilities
through Mid -19 56
The IAC representatives agreed on terms of reference on
12 January. All contributions except that of ORR are due on
10 April. ORR's contribution is due on 1 May. JAEIC contri-
bution received 19 March.
Tab B to
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1 April 1954
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4. NIE 27.1-54: Probable Develogments in Spain
The IAC representatives agreed on terms of reference on
4 February. Contributions are due on 9 April. ONI con-
tribution received 31 March,
5. NIE 30-54: Middle East Defense
The IAC representatives agreed on terms of reference on
31 March. Contributions are due on 3 May.
6. NIE 36-54: Probable Developments in the Arab States
The IAC representatives agreed on terms of reference on
26 January. Contributions due on 1 August.
7. NIE 41-54: Probable Developments in
IAC representatives agreed on terms of reference on 24 March.
Contributions are due on 30 June.
8. NIE 80-54: The Caribbean Republics
The IAC representatives approved terms of reference on
29 March. Contributions are due on 1 June for the Services;
on l July for State.
SECRET
Tab B to
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1 April 1954
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