THE SITUATION IN CAMBODIA, JANUARY 1974

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CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4
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RIPPUB
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S
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26
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December 22, 2016
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July 11, 2012
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2
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Publication Date: 
February 1, 1974
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Secret The Situation in Cambodia, January 1974 Secret CIA No. 7992/74 February 1974 Copy N?_ 135 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 THE SITUATION IN CAMBODIA JANUARY 1974 1. This report is the seventh in a series of quarterly reports prepared at the request of the Vietnam Special Studies Group. Its purpose is to review military, political, and economic developments in Cambodia during the fourth quarter of 1973. 2. Care has been taken in the selection and processing of the data used in this report, but even the most authoritative information from Cambodia frequently is unreliable. For example, military statistics covering FANK strength, casualties, and other factors are based on largely unconfirmed field reports. Likewise, the significance of economic data is clouded by uncertainty over the methods used by the Cambodians to calculate their statistics. 3. Because of the method of disseminating field reports, some of the military data for December were not received in time to be included in this report. The Military Situation Developments 4. Combat activity during the fourth quarter of 1973 started at a high level but decreased sharply in November as the Khmer Communists (KC) disengaged to prepare for their dry season campaign, which started slowly in December. Communist pressure was concentrated on Phnom Penh -- their principal objective -- and the main lines of communication (LOCs) leading into the capital. KC initiatives elsewhere in the country were aimed both at tying down FANK units in outlying areas - to prevent reinforcement of the capital - and securing part of the 1973/74 rice harvest. Illustrative of the intensity of KC activity, the number of combat incidents Published by the Central Intelligence Agency on behalf of the Vietnam Special Studies Group. Inquiries concerning the contents of this publication 25X1 should be addressed to South Asia Division, Office of Economic Research SECRET 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 LJL Vi\J.J 1 continued the upward trend which started early in the year and reached the highest level of the war in September (see Figure 1). Activity in the capital area also reached a new high in September (see Table 3, in the Appendix), and about 60% of all combat occurred within 5 kilometers (km) of major LOCs. 0' 1 I 1 J A S A N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S A N D 5. Early in the quarter, KC pressure in the Phnom Penh area was concentrated against the isolated garrison at Vihear Suor, east of the capital. FANK relief operations were generally unsuccessful, and on 30 November the garrison fell. This facilitated KC access to the east bank of the Mekong and allowed them to move a small number of rockets and artillery pieces into positions opposite the capital. As a result, indirect fire attacks became an almost daily occurrence in late December and early January. The range from which the attacks were being mounted - at least 10 km -- and the FANK response to this threat limited the military, but not the psychological, impact of this shelling. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 6. To the south of the capital, KC units pulled back to rest and refit, leaving a two-division FANK force in firm control of defenses south of the Prek Thnot River and along Route 1. The situation remained stable until late January, when KC attacks forced FANK north of the Prek Thnot and KC artillery shelled Phnom Penh from a distance of about 10 km for several days. 7. Northwest of the capital, the KC mounted a major threat in December with the objective of destroying FANK's 7th Division and bringing Pochentong Airport and the petroleum storage facility at Prek Phnou under fire. Although the 7th Division was under heavy pressure, the defense line generally held, and only limited harassment of the airport has been achieved to date. 8. KC initiatives against Phnom Penh's vital LOCs met with mixed success. The KC undertook no major efforts against the most crucial LOC -- the Mekong. Only 10 of 35 northbound and southbound convoys were attacked during the quarter (compared with 17 of 39 in the third quarter), and no major damage was caused. (Mekong convoys and the status of Cambodia's three principal highways -- Routes 1, 4, and 5 -- during 1973 are shown in Figure 2.) 9. The KC, however, maintained the interdictions of Route 1, which was closed throughout the year, and Route 5, which has been closed since early September. A previous interdiction on Route 5 in Kompong Chhnang Province was expanded, and in October and December the KC accomplished interdictions less than 15 km from Phnom Penh. The success of this effort allowed the KC to assign responsibility for the more distant interdiction effort to local force elements, freeing a number of main force units for deployment closer to Phnom Penh. 10. Through October and early November, the KC achieved only intermittent interdiction of Route 4, and eight supply convoys reached Phnom Penh. However, with the commitment of a multi-regimental force in mid-November -- most of which later deployed to the Phnom Penh area -- ? the KC managed to close and hold sections of the road through the end of the year. A cautious FANK attempt to reopen the road with a reinforced division finally succeeded in early January, but the highway was quickly interdicted again. 11. Action elsewhere in the country was generally light. However, two large FANK outposts at Srang and Tram Khnar (about 40 km southwest of Phnom Penh) fell to the KC in the first week of November, with a substantial loss of men and materiel. Later in the month, the KC increased the pressure against the provincial capitals of Takeo and Kampot. 3 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 =k.JtL" I Neither city appeared to be in imminent danger of collapse at the end of the year, however. The KC also initiated scattered "rice grab" operations in Battambang and Pursat Provinces, but because of the poor state of readiness of the KC units involved, they accomplished little. Disposition of Forces 12. Countrywide, FANK has an estimated combat strength of 110,000 to 130,000 men, compared with a KC combat strength estimated at 50,000 to 60,000. (Comparative combat strengths, by military region, are shown in Figure 3.) 13. The largest concentration of combat forces currently is in the Phnom Penh area. By gathering forces from many areas of the country, the KC have increased their manpower commitment to the capital area to the highest level of the war. About 12,000 to 15,000 KC are targeted against the city's defenses -- roughly equivalent to the force committed last summer -- with a total of 20,000 to 26,000 KC within 25 km of Phnom Penh. In opposition, FANK has a combat force of 27,000 to 29,000 in and around the city, but they are nearly all committed, leaving little reserve for dispatch to trouble spots. 14. In the rest of the country, FANK holds a more decided manpower edge, but the KC retain the initiative and could easily achieve localized manpower parity or superiority. With both sides heavily committed in the Phnom Penh area, the KC probably are unable to redeploy sufficient units quickly to alter radically the situation in the countryside. However, some important changes in the status quo could occur as the result of the gradual erosion of FANK defenses around towns such as Takeo. Status of the Government of the Khmer Republic Military Manpower 15. There were a few bright spots in FANK's manpower picture in the fourth quarter, but a substantial shortfall in recruitment left many units still understrength. At the end of the year, the Army conscription /recruitment drive, which began on 10 October, had garnered slightly more than 13,000 new troops, well below the target of 25,000. An additional 3,000 personnel enlisted in the Navy and Air Force, probably hoping to avoid the more distasteful and dangerous Army service. As a result of the influx of new troops, FANK's training capacity was strained during the period, but it nonetheless produced more than 15,000 trained SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Figure 3 FANK and Khmer Communist Combat Strength, by FANK Military Region thousands 1 Phnem ihbeng Meanc hey 0 FANK 15-18 KC 5-7 Jim Neap 'r / qNattamgang rung Koh Kong V FANK 0 KC 1-2 Senmonoromo - Military region boundary i Miltary region capital Total Combat Strength FANK 110-130 KC 50-60 5 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 VIII- FANK 3-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 personnel, compared with 9,500 during the previous quarter. Partially offsetting these accessions, however, were FANK losses (killed, wounded, missing, and deserted), which totaled almost 4,000 for the quarter. FANK's total trained strength at the end of the year was about 150,000, roughly 75% of total strength, which was estimated to be about 205,000 as of 1 December (see Table 1). 25X1 Estimated FANK Strength as of 1 December 19731 Total 205,000 General Staff/Ministry of Defense 24,400 Army 159,900 Deployed in-country 159,200 MR I 7,800 MR II 36,400 MR 111 25,700 MR IV 20,000 MR V 0 MR VI 16,400 MR VIII 4,100 Special Military Region 48,800 Out-of-country training 700 Thailand 600 Other 100 Navy (including Marines) 13,200 Air Force 7,500 Army 16. Cambodian Army operations in the fourth quarter remained defensive and reactive. As shown by the disposition of FANK battalions (see Figure 4), most of FANK's combat strength remains concentrated around Phnom Penh and provincial capitals or along major lines of communication, thus giving the KC control over wide expanses of the countryside. In fact, the FANK effort to maintain control in the countryside dropped precipitously as units were pulled back to defend threatened urban areas. Both the absolute level of Army presence in the countryside and the level relative to earlier periods (both expressed in battalion-days of SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Disposition of FANK Battalions,1 December 1973 Pllrsel4--- ILI, -- ---------- Koh Kong Phnom n oinpoyg opll Figure4 of l _S '` } tr ~~.ra l+. _ g 7 SECRET == v No Kur Krang Koh b neon Military region boundary Military region capital % 50 Miles 25 50 Kilometers Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 presence) are at the lowest points on record (see Table 4, in the Appendix). Recognizing the need to increase its capabilities in the countryside (as well as around the cities), FANK has reversed an earlier program of reforming battalions into company-size units (primarily used to guard fixed positions) and has begun to reconstitute battalions from the manpower in those companies. 17. As has been true throughout the war, the great majority of Army units still rely on fixed, defensive positions -- frequently ill-prepared - and rarely conduct extensive patrols or shift deployments to meet changed situations. This lack of mobility was particularly apparent throughout 1972-73, and in November 1973 the index of FANK mobility (expressed as the percent of FANK battalions moving more than 20 km per month -- see Table 5, in the Appendix) fell to the third lowest level on record. 18. In contrast, Cambodian Air Force capabilities expanded and improved during the fourth quarter. The Air Force for the first time showed an ability to sustain heavy, well-coordinated support of ground operations with the launching of Operation Thunderstrike in late October. The eight-day operation, designed to provide direct support to units holding Phnom Penh's southern perimeter, apparently was effective in discouraging KC initiatives. During the operation the Air Force launched about 60 strike sorties per day, well above the average of 45 per day for the quarter. (Monthly strike figures are shown in Table 6, in the Appendix, and the locations of air strikes for the quarter in Figure 5.) Three subsequent Thunderstrike operations in November and early December were more limited in scope and less successful. 19. The 19 November bombing of the Presidential Palace by a disaffected Air Force pilot, however, has led to the placing of severe limitations on the ordnance carried by T-28 strike formations. Flight leaders are prohibited from carrying bombs and are required to monitor the activities of the others in the flight during strikes, thus reducing the impact of Air Force attacks on KC units. It is unclear when or if these restrictions will be lifted. Navy 20. Improved leadership and morale continue to characterize naval operations. During the quarter, the Navy continued its resupply of Kompong Cham, initiated a series of resupply convoys to four other isolated cities, and provided effective support for Mekong convoys. In addition, the Navy provided vital transport and fire support for ground operations on the east bank of the Mekong near Phnom Penh and for an unsuccessful attempt to recapture the seacoast town of Kep. 8 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Cambodian Air Force Strikes, Fourth Quarter 1973 Kpmpong ghom~ Koh Kong! ompong Fopil rey 4en 9 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Figure 5 Military region boundary ? Military region capital Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release-2012/07/11 : CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 21. The most significant aspect of naval operations, however, has been the formation and deployment of additional Marine battalions. With a total complement of more than 3,500 men, and further expansion under way, the Marine battalions have provided badly needed support along the Mekong and, in part, can be credited with the failure of the KC, to date, to mount a serious threat against Mekong convoys. Deployed in numerous small positions along the riverbank (other Marine units are stationed along the seacoast and near Kompong Chhnang), the Marines have patrolled aggressively and, with. naval fire support readily available, have acquitted themselves well in engagements with the KC. Auto Defense 22. Another bright spot on the government side has been the expansion of the Auto Defense Program. At the end of October, Auto Defense strength was more than 65,000, an increase of 8,000 since August. Despite the lack of support or recognition from central authorities, an additional 2,500 troops have been enrolled in two autonomous provincial programs. 23. Auto Defense performance has been uneven and the units are no match for regular KC forces, but they have proved a valuable adjunct to the Army. In areas around Phnom Penh, for example, Auto Defense personnel occupy exposed forward positions, and at the Port of Kompong Som they are an integral part of the overall defense plan. In Siem Reap Province, task forces composed of Auto Defense and Army personnel have occasionally undertaken limited offensives against relatively weak KC units. 24. The most important role played by Auto Defense forces, however, has been protection of the rice crop in Battambang Province. With a strength of more than 10,000, Auto Defense forces have been given primary responsibility for security in rice-growing areas. Dispersed in small units and conducting sweeps in conjunction with Army units, Auto Defense forces have had at least limited success against the weak KC units in the area, and they now are the principal target of KC propaganda broadcasts. 25. In Battambang, as in most areas, the major shortcoming of the Auto Defense Program is the Army's inability to provide adequate backup. Battambang, for example, has only one Army battalion available for intervention, and one isolated 100-man Auto Defense force has to rely on a force of only 30 Army troops 11 km away for support. 26. The long-anticipated resignation of Prime Minister In Tam and the subsequent formation of a new government headed by Long Boret, 10 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 In Tam's former foreign minister, highlighted political developments in Phnom Penh during the past few months. In Tam stepped down on 7 December and Long Boret assumed office within three weeks. Boret, however, did not take In Tam's seat on the ruling High Political Council -- which now consists of Lon Nol, Sirik Matak, and Cheng Heng. The new 16-man cabinet is smaller than its predecessor and appears to be relatively well qualified to tackle the country's increasingly severe economic problems. Moreover, Boret's recognized political skills should help him to move toward these objectives, as should his solid standing with President Lon Nol, who has claimed that he will give Boret considerable authority. 27. Internationally, the UN General Assembly voted on 5 December to defer action on an Algerian resolution to seat representatives of Sihanouk's "government" until next fall, thereby assuring government representation in the UN for at least another year. Despite the slim three-vote margin, the postponement represented an important victory for Phnom Penh and its supporters. The Sihanouk challenge was endorsed by the Algiers non-aligned conference in September and had the backing of China and a substantial number of the non-aligned states at the UN. Later in the session Phnom Penh also survived a parliamentary maneuver by Sihanouk's supporters to challenge the government's credentials. 28. Meanwhile, no discernible movement on either side occurred toward a cease-fire and a negotiated settlement of the Cambodian conflict. The newly installed government quickly affirmed its desire for peace and reissued the peace proposal of 6 July calling for an immediate cease-fire and talks. Sihanouk and the KC again quickly rejected the proposal and reiterated their opposition to negotiations with the government on anything short of its total capitulation. A poorly conceived and ill-timed peace plan proposed by former prime minister and would-be "third force" leader Sonn Sann in early January drew heavy criticism from both sides. 29. The most significant economic problems with which the government had to deal toward the end of 1973 were tight supplies of key commodity stocks and accelerated price increases that pointed toward an annual inflation on the order of 275% to 300%. Because the preponderant role in commodity production and supply belongs to the private sector, the effectiveness of particular government policies is necessarily limited. Notwithstanding this fact, the government -- with ample US assistance -- performed reasonably well in preventing runaway inflation, meeting key commodity requirements, and providing some support for the heavy flow of refugees. 11 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 30. Considering the hyperinflation with which it must deal, the government showed remarkable restraint in fiscal and monetary policies during the last quarter of 1973. Despite pressures to grant additional salary increases as an offset to continued sharp price increases, expenditures did not increase above earlier projections. Nevertheless, efforts to reduce expenditures have been difficult because the military situation remains precarious and military expenditures continue to take up some 60% of all public spending. Thus the 1973 budget may be in deficit by as much as 16 billion riels, 60% more than originally planned. The rate of growth of the money supply was remarkably modest in the last quarter and for the year. Between the end of 1972 and October it increased by only 32% and was up only an estimated 40% during the year (see Figure 6). CAMBODIA: Indexes of Money Supply and Prices Price for Working Class Families in Phnom Penh" 'Excluding cash in the bank and small sums on the current account of the general treasury. "As reported by the Cambodian National Institute of Statistics. 31. The final quarter also saw a continuation of fairly effective efforts to keep import demand within Cambodia's limited foreign exchange availabilities. Total foreign exchange sales were just under the $36 million allocated for the Exchange Support Fund (ESF). Import demand was quite heavy during most of October, threatening exhaustion of ESF funds before the end of the year. The reimposition of advance import deposits, equal to 300% of the amount of exchange requested, helped reduce import demand considerably for the rest of the quarter.1 1. Reimposition of advance import deposits, while reducing import demand, also reduced the flow of goods into the country, thereby adding to inflationary pressures. 12 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 32. Exchange rate policy was also used more aggressively during the final quarter. In particular, during the period of heavy import demand in October, the riel was devalued twice from 250 riels per dollar to 302 riels per dollar (see Figure 7).2 Earlier, the value of the riel had not been changed during February-August, despite strong demand for foreign exchange and a black market rate some 75% greater than the official rate. CAMBODIA: Weekly Foreign Exchange Sales by the Banque Nationale Du Cambodge and Effective Exchange Rate 33. Delivery and distribution of US-supplied goods were relatively effective, as attested by the 25% decrease in the free market price of rice in late December and resultant slowdown in the rise of the consumer price index. Prices of non-rice foods, however, did not show a comparable decline, but here it should be noted that the government has little control over the flow or distribution of most such items, which reach Phnom Penh from outlying domestic areas. 34. Despite some progress in framing counterinflationary policies, the government has done little toward developing a comprehensive approach to income distribution problems. With the large numbers of people arriving 2. An additional 20% devaluation -- to 377 riels per dollar - was announced in early January 1974, indicating continuing awareness of the importance of maintaining some purchasing-power alignment. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 ?7L' V1t~ . i daily in a capital city that already has an army of unemployed, the prospects for civil disorder have become progressively stronger. The average refugee, lacking skills or training, has been forced to accept employment that provides him barely enough for survival. Available statistics indicate that in the past three years minimum real wages have fallen by 20%, and working classes have been forced to increase the share of incomes spent on foodstuffs. Government wage increases have several times been awarded to civilian and military personnel, but increases for non-government workers have probably not been equivalent. In contrast, the incomes of middle- and upper-echelon workers probably kept pace with the cost of living, while some businessmen were able to take advantage of commodity shortages and a glutted labor market. Although upgrading of the military personnel system has reduced the formerly high level of "phantom" troops, many military officers still reap some benefit from manipulating payrolls. 35. As the year ended, and with prodding from US advisers, the Prime Minister announced a new program to counter economic disruption caused by the war. Although few details are available, the program is known to include cost-of-living allowances for civilian and military employees, improved rice distribution, increased agricultural output, refugee relief, limitations on the budget, and tax reforms. Given the present military environment, the need to maintain heavy defense spending, and constraints on domestic resources as well as foreign assistance, it is highly unlikely that such a program can do more than bring about a modest slowdown in the recent rate of inflation. Military Equipment 36. During the fourth quarter, a major effort was undertaken to increase FANK's supply availability through the delivery of MAP-funded weapons, ammunition, and equipment. More than 30,000 M-16 rifles and substantial numbers of crew-served weapons and artillery were delivered, as well as more than 700 trucks and nearly 80 armored vehicles. (For data on the delivery of selected items, see Table 7, in the Appendix.) 37. Although FANK ammunition consumption rose during the quarter, to the highest level of the war in early January, enough ammunition was delivered to increase FANK stocks by about 50%. (For a comparison of ammunition deliveries, consumption, and stocks, see Figure 8). At the end of the year, FANK had a 42-day supply of small arms ammunition and enough mortar and artillery rounds and bombs to last between 23 and 30 days. The only ammunition type in short supply was aircraft rockets, with only a 10-day supply on hand. The current goal is to have a 30-day stock of all ammunition types. 14 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 J A S 0 N D J F 1973 1974 38. Petroleum stocks threatened to diminish seriously during the quarter as a result of the Arab oil cutback, but, by the end of the period, at least 30 days' stocks were on hand for most civilian product categories, and about 60 days' supply for military categories (see Table 2). Table 2 Stocks of Petroleum Products in Phnom Penh Days of Supply 29 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 20 Dec Gasoline 15 16 13 (58)1 22 (58) Kerosene 24 21 2 6 Automotive diesel 12 8 12 (34) 28 (61) Industrial diesel 41 28 29 46 Fuel oil 22 16 23 19 Jet fuel 49 62 56 (70) 42 (56) Aviation gasoline 85 59 68 (55) 101 (54) SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Government discussions with Cambodia's three suppliers -- Shell, Caltex, and Summit -- led to a reversal of announced delivery cutbacks, which could have created a year-end shortage of numerous oil products. Shell and Caltex, suppliers of about 70% of petroleum imports in 1973, agreed to continue petroleum deliveries at significantly higher prices through May 1974, when current contracts expire. Summit, on the other hand, defaulted on its scheduled deliveries for the first half of 1974 because of a shortage of supplies. 39. In view of the uncertain supply situation, the government instituted several measures to conserve existing stocks. On 23 November, gas rationing went into effect for all vehicles except those used by the government and public transportation. Two weeks later, prices of all oil products were increased sharply. A National Petroleum Institute was set up to monitor fuel procurement and consumption, and the military was ordered to reduce consumption by 15%. 40. The extremely tight rice situation that prevailed in Phnom Penh during late summer continued into the fall. However, deliveries of US PL-480 rice from South Vietnam by the end of October eased the situation and prevented government stocks from slipping to dangerously low levels, such as had prompted the severe riots of September 1972. Later deliveries of Thai rice and PL-480 rice from South Korea helped the city support reasonable consumption rates, until the arrival of large PL-480 shipments from the United States in December. 41. Efforts to bolster rice stocks to a minimum of 45 days by the end of the year were successful, despite some disruptions in delivery schedules. By the end of the year, government supplies in Phnom Penh were sufficient for about three weeks' consumption, with an additional three weeks' supply waiting to be moved from Kompong Som to the capital. Status of the Khmer/Vietnamese Communists Military 42. Developments late in the fourth quarter greatly eased the logistic problems that hampered KC operations earlier in the year. Command and control shortcomings and recruiting difficulties, however, are still restricting KC capabilities and have adversely affected their early 1974 dry season operations. While the KC have been able more easily to mass forces around Phnom Penh from all parts of the country, they apparently still have not developed the capability to coordinate multi-regimental formations on several fronts, as demonstrated by their inability so far to launch simultaneous attacks on all sides of Phnom Penh. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 ( Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 43. Manpower also remains a cause of concern for the KC. Although they have largely replaced the heavy casualties suffered last summer (the government claims to have killed an additional 800 in the fourth quarter), the KC have been hit with widespread illness and have had to resort to forced conscription in some areas, thus decreasing the effectiveness and reliability of many of their units. In Kratie Province, for example, the KC have had great difficulty in recruiting troops, primarily because of the large numbers of ethnic Chams in the province. To overcome this problem the KC began to forcibly induct Cham youths into the military in October. 44. Currently, the Vietnamese presence in Cambodia consists primarily of administrative services troops -- about 20,000 -- most of whom are supporting operations in southern South Vietnam. During the past two years, the Vietnamese have substantially reduced their combat strength in Cambodia, and we now estimate that only a few thousand combat troops remain (including some personnel maintaining liaison with KC units). Although none of these are thought to be engaged in combat against FANK, occasional clashes between the Vietnamese and the KC in border areas are still being reported. 45. In the southern provinces of Kampot and Takeo, for example, the two sides continue to engage in scattered skirmishes. Both sides have chosen to ignore the agreement reached last August that provided for a formal delineation of zones of administrative control in the two provinces. Instead, each has tried to expand its control over territory, population, and economic resources controlled by the other. Local KC units have staged small-scale harassing attacks against Vietnamese units in an effort to push them across the border into South Vietnam, and Vietnamese troops have been instructed to enlarge their areas of control and have been ambushing KC troops. Despite these actions, casualties have been relatively light, and recently there have been tentative indications that KC and Vietnamese Communist officials have again been seeking to reach an accommodation in this area. 46. Sihanouk's fragile relations with the KC took another turn in early November, when the Prince announced that all portfolios of his Peking-based Royal Government of National Union (RGNU) -- with the exception of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs -- would be transferred to KC leaders in Cambodia. The move was made in part to remove the "exile" stigma from the RGNU. All that apparently remains of Sihanouk's Peking operation is a small "mission" to receive foreign diplomats and dignitaries. 47. Sihanouk's failure to attend farewell functions in Peking in November for leng Sary and his public cancellation of plans for a visit 17 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82S00205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 to the "liberated zone" in 1974 made it clear that considerable ill will remains between the Prince and the KC leadership. Despite Communist efforts late in the year to smooth over their differences with Sihanouk, he has continued to annoy them by taking a pessimistic public line on the KC's chances for achieving a quick military victory in Cambodia. 48. The past quarter was characterized by continued attempts by the KC to maintain strict control over the population. Recent information indicates that the KC have created covert "leagues" to oversee more closely the activities of particular segments of the population. In Svay Rieng Province, for example, at least four such leagues currently exist -- the Farmers' League, Youth League, Children's League, and Workers' League. Reportedly created in January 1973, they are administered at the district level and below directly by Khmer Communist Party members. Mass associations, such as the Farmers' and Patriotic Youth Associations, are organizationally subordinate to the various leagues and serve as the overt vehicles through which high-level KC policy is implemented. Although leagues have been reported only in Svay Rieng and Pursat, they probably exist in other parts of Cambodia as well. 49. Discrimination against particular segments of the population also persisted. In Kampot, for example, the KC have waged a campaign against Chinese merchants and farmers to prevent them from selling supplies to the North Vietnamese. In Kratie, Kompong Cham, and several other provinces, the KC have imposed a harsh rule on the ethnic Chams, including such measures as prohibiting or sabotaging religious ceremonies, forcing families to contribute to the KC organization, and communizing all property. In the case of the Chams, however, a number of villagers have organized armed resistance and, in at least one area, are seeking FANK's aid. Support by the local population for these anti-KC operations reportedly is running at a high level. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 APPENDIX STATISTICAL TABLES 19712 38 19722 1st qtr 34 2nd qtr 48 3rd qtr 24 4th qtr 31 1973 Jan 36 Feb 61 Mar 77 Apr 125 May 139 Jun 186 Jul 182 Aug 98 Sep 213 Oct 154 Nov 82 1. Data are from the OSD/DDPAE Khmer Computer File. 2. Monthly average. 19 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 FANK: Battalion-Days in the Countryside) Index (December 1970 = 100) Percent of Total Battalion-Days 19712 139 49 19722 1st qtr 127 49 2nd qtr 115 44 3rd qtr 115 42 4th qtr 123 41 1973 Jan 125 41 Feb 113 41 Mar 130 42 Apr 122 45 May 129 46 Jun 117 43 Jul 121 43 Aug 111 41 Sep 103 38 Oct 94 38 Nov 81 33 1. Data are from the CIA FANK Computer File. 2. Monthly average. 20 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Percent of FANK Battalions Moving More than 20 Kilometers per Monthy 19712 21 19722 1st qtr 12 2nd qtr 15 3rd qtr 16 4th qtr 15 1973 Jan 15 Feb 8 Mar 7 Apr 22 May 14 Jun 17 Jul 13 Aug 16 Sep 17 Oct 15 Nov 10 1. Data are from the CIA FANK Computer File. 2. Monthly average. 21 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Tactical Strike Sorties in Cambodia I 19712 19722 1st qtr 1,902 2nd qtr 1,150 3rd qtr 1,336 4th qtr 948 1973 Jan 1,378 Feb 773 Mar 4,024 Apr 5,010 May 5,719 Jun 6,002 Jul 6,744 Aug 4,124 Sep 1,326 Oct 1,327 Nov 1,187 Dec 1,806 1. Including Vietnamese Air Force sorties through January 1973 and US sorties through 15 August 1973. 2. Monthly average. MAP-Funded Deliveries to FANK, Fourth Quarter 1973 (Selected Items) M-16 rifles 30,586 Machineguns 569 Recoilless rifles 32 Mortars 284 105-mm howitzers 30 155-mm howitzers 12 Trucks 744 Armored vehicles 79 Naval craft 2 22 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4 25X1 Secret Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP82SO0205R000200070002-4