NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION INTELLIGENCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00171R000500150014-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 18, 2007
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: November 30, 1976
• Content Type: MF

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IC 76-2444
30 November 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR:
Deputy to the DCI for the Intelligence
Community
Director of Performance Evaluation
and Improvement
SUBJECT: Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence
DOE review
completed.
1. At the December 2 NFIB meeting, General Giller will present
ERDA's views on needed improvements in the area of national intelli-
gence on nuclear proliferation. This :-memorandum summarizes ongoing
IC Staff efforts on this matter.
2. On November 29, Howard Stoertz and I hosted a meeting of
Community personnel involved in the collection and production of
nuclear proliferation intelligence. A summary -f the meeting is
attached. There was general consensus about the validity of recent
criticisms of Community performance in this area (e. g. , the Deutch
report, IC Staff semiannual review) and there are actions under way
to correct some of these problems, principally actions associated
with the reorganization of CIA's Intelligence Directorate. More needs
to be done, however, especially in the following three areas:
--Formation of 'a senior-level users group, to provide more
coherent guidance to the Community on nuclear proliferation
intelligence requirements. ERDA is pressing for formation of
a Proliferation Users Group and President-Elect Carter has
shown interest in a Cabinet-level committee on proliferation.
We should work with staff-level users to set up a users' working
group, but obviously the initiative :ror a Cabinet-level group must
come from the White House.
--Provision of a single focal point within the Community for
all aspects of proliferation intelligence. Right now, the efforts
are split among CIA, DLA, ERDA, and JAEIC, with no full-time
coordinator. In the NIO structure, proliferation is assigned to
NSC review(s)
completed.
SECRE`C.
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Howard Stoertz; JAEIC concentrates primarily on technical
aspects of proliferation intelligence. The NIO/SP is exploring
ways to provide this single focal point and we will work with
him on this important matter.
. --Development of improved data bases on proliferation
(e. g., worldwide tracking of special nuclear materials and
people with the technological skills needed to produce nuclear
weapons). Current data bases are clearly inadequate, but we
need some careful analysis to determine (a) what additional
data can feasibly be collected and. (b) to what level of detail
it is sufficient to develop the data, bases (measured in terns
of the end use of the data).
3. I and my staff are following up on the November 29 meeting
in three ways. First, we are planning a meeting in the near future
with users of proliferation intelligence to hear their views on require-
ments. Second, we are developing a checklist of ongoing and proposed
Community improvements in proliferation intelligence so we can
systematically monitor what's going on and take action to stimulate
Community elements as necessary to maintain movement. Third,
we will in the near future form a Community working group to examine
in detail the feasibility, requirements for, and costs of developing new
or improved proliferation data bases, and to initiate those data base
improvements which will indeed contribute to improving proliferation
intelligence.
4. It is my understanding that ERDA wants to discuss proliferation
at NFIB on Thursday more to keep the pot boiling than to force i3nmedia2g 1
decisions. That discussion should prove fruitful, but we should guard
against derailing the reforms we are already working on.
Attachment a/ s
SECR~.~.
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30 November 1976
SUBJECT: Summary of Intelligence Community Meeting Concerning
Nuclear Proliferation
1. On 29 November 1976, the Director of Performance Evaluation
and Improvement, ICS, and the NIO for Strategic Programs jointly
sponsored a meeting of collection and production elements of the
Community responsible for nuclear proliferation intelligence. The
participants included more than 30 analysts and high-level management
representatives from the DCI collection committees, JAEIC, relevant
production and collection elements, the IC Staff, and NIOs. Three
major themes were explored during the two-hour session: 1) what does
the Intelligence Community view as the needs of users of proliferation
intelligence, 2) what is the Intelligence Community doing to meet these
needs, and 3) in light of the increasing emphasis being placed on nuclear
proliferation intelligence, what additional or different things should the
Community be doing? The meeting left participants with a clearer
perception of the importance currently placed on nuclear proliferation
by the executive and legislative branches, the various collection and
analysis activities under way and planned by members of the Intelligence
Community, and the more comprehensive type of proliferation intelli-
gence that undoubtedly will be needed by a variety of users in the years
to come.
2. The timeliness and relevance of the meeting were highlighted
by the realization that the current and future Administrations place
great stress on constraining nuclear proliferation. The recent Presi-
dential policy statement concerning proliferation, Congressional
initiatives on the subject that are sure to be explored in the coming
months, and the public positions of President-Elect Carter on his
international and domestic strategies to deal with the problem of
nuclear proliferation- -all presage an increased demand for high-quality
intelligence products. The Intelligence Community perceives that the
future demand will be for a more "issue-driven" product. A clearer
definition of user requirements with respect to the major policy issues
will allow the Community to address those issues directly and to
reformat existing intelligence information to be more useful and
germane.
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3. Historically, the Intelligence Community has attacked the
nuclear proliferation problem in a fragmented manner. Regional
responsibilities for proliferation intelligence lie with the different
geographically oriented NIOs, the NIO/Strategic Programs coordinates
generic proliferation problems, the Intelligence Community production
elements are usually organized with responsibilities for political,
economic, military and technical analyses located in different offices,
and the JAEIC concentrates on the technical considerations of nuclear
proliferation. This decentralization of effort on the nuclear prolifera-
tion problem has come about in some measure because of the disarray
among US policymakers who focus on the problem. The departmental
needs of the DOD, State, and ERDA determine for the most part the
type of emphasis that their intelligence production elements place on
proliferation intelligence. In CIA, the general demand for technical
intelligence has shaped its intelligence product to meet that demand.
4. Representatives from ERDA stressed the need for a coordinated
Intelligence Community approach to meet two major objectives; namely,
to minimize the proliferation risks inherent in international nuclear
commerce and to act to enhance regional stabilities. To achieve better
definition of user requirements and an improved intelligence product in
terms of timeliness, relevance, and quality, ERDA suggested a focal
point for Community efforts reside in two committees: one, consisting
of users (with producers represented on the committee), and two, a
proliferation intelligence coordinating; committee of producers. Such
an arrangement could manage a proliferation intelligence program
that in part consists of:
analysis of current policy issues and initiatives to determine
intelligence requirements,
worldwide data base on plutonium stocks and flows,
assessment of foreign nuclear weapon development
capabilities,
-- integration of technical capabilities with political/ military
-- national security implications of proliferation activities,
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-- proliferation watch on specific countries,
-- identification of additional intelligence requirements,
-- program evaluation and revision.
5. The recognized need for current and more insightful intelligence
has initiated general projects and organizational changes. For example,
DIA is attempting to maintain a reasonably current (quarterly) review
of the countries which are potential p: oliferators. CIA recently reorganized
to put the scientific and weapons intelligence elements in the same direc-
torate as the political, economic, and strategic offices. This move,
and the creation of a special center for support of policy studies, will
facilitate the production of multidisciplinary intelligence studies in CIA.
It is ho
ed
p
that these efforts will serve as guides for future CIA studies and for
other Community efforts.
6. The NIO/Strategic Programs drew several conclusions from
the meeting's discussion. The Intelligence Community has a solid core
of highly knowledgeable analysts and managers of collection and production
who generally are supportive of a fresh interagency approach to improving
the quality and utility to policymakers of intelligence on nuclear prolifera-
tion. There is clearly a need for an interdisciplinary, interagency working
group on nuclear proliferation intelligence, to extend further the excellent
work already performed by JAEIC. The interdisciplinary approach pro-
posed within CIA/DDI is also highly desirable, in part to meet the need
for short-fuse assessments of foreign political, economic and technical
developments bearing on proliferation prospects. The nature and
importance of the proliferation intelligence problem are such that it is
deserving of the full-time attention of a senior substantive intelligence
officer who would provide the Intelligence Community with a more
effective focal point for consumers, producers, and collectors. In
this regard, the NIO/SP recommends that the DCI should identify such
an officer promptly so that he can form a new interagency working
group and guide the Intelligence Community in preparing to meet the
needs of the new Administration for intelligence on nuclear proliferation.
In the interim, the NIO/SP will immediately develop terms of reference
for a new SNIE on nuclear proliferation with a view toward having the
SNIE available early in the new Administration.
~ar
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lkI . C;
7. In order to be more responsive to the valid needs of policy-
makers for nuclear proliferation intelligence, the Community must
engage in an increased and continued dialogue with those users. It 25X1
must keep current with the major policy issues.
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IC 76-2444
Distribution (w/atts)
Original - D/DCI/IC
1 - EO/IC and ,-,D/DCI/IC
1 - D/OPEI
1 - D/OPP
1 - D/OPBD
1 - C/OPEI/IS
1 - C/OPEI/ID
1 - C/OPEI/SD
1 - C/OPEI/HRD
1 - IC/Registry
1 - PAID Subject
1 - PAID Chrono
1 - PAID/
1 - PAID/
1 - PAID/
1 - PAID/
IC/PAID/I mjs/4445/30Nov76
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