PAO STUDY PROGRAM FOR FY 1980 (Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00171R002100090011-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: July 29, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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Approv or Release 2 10 b4 ULU
29 July 1980
NRO REVIEW COMPLETED
MEMORANDUM FOR: PAO Staff
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SUBJECT: PAO Study Program for FY 1991 (U)
REFERENCE: EA Note, dated 22 July 1980; Subject: PAO Staff
Meeting, 22 July 1980
1. As of Monday, I had received 83 different suggestions for
the PAO FY 1981 Study Program. As a result of the recommendations
received so far, the distribution of the proposed studies looks
something like this:
Category Number
Production 30*
Collection 22
Crisis/STOF Spt 12
Processing 9
Other 10
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(u)
Total 83
* The total number of production studies is skewed somewhat by
Willie White's list of 19 possible topics.
2. Attached find several listings which provide a brief
description of each study And idontify the proponent for each study.
Also attached are Art's an comments on methods of study
selection, a resource allocation prob em for PAO. (U)
3. For your information, I have also attached three sheets
which try to summariab what was proposed as a study program last
year; what wanted included in the program; and the status
of what we actually a . empted last year. (U)
4. Please bring this memorandum to the meetings which Art
intends to have to discuss the proposals. (t1)
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2. PAO Resource Allocation Criteria
3. D/PAO Suggested Study Program for FY 1980
4. D/DCI/RM Suggested Study Program for FY 1980
5. PAO Study Program for FY 1980
Attachments: (5)
1. Proposed Studies (5)
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Proposed Processin Studies
No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
d1
1 Duplication?Imagery Exploitation Effort Is there unwarranted duplication of imagery exploitation in the
Intelligence Community? Examine 1 week's National Imagery
(including search) and compare it for exploitation organization-
the initial exploitation, follow-up exploitation, reports, data
base entries and briefings that result from the imagery. From
this data base develop measures of timeliness, redundancy, and
unique exploitation in order to estimate the resource implications
and intelligence impact of combining/deleting/expanding various
exploitation functions. (U)
2 Imager Exploitation-Collection How can exploitation take advantage of collection sampling
r~exiiTj'ty strategies? Is topical reporting a step in this direction.
Shouldn't exploitation requirements reflect collection
requirements/strategies? (U)
3 SoftcopY Utility Study What is tiie inCrempn+ l 1
a
f
4 Telemetry Processing
5 Photointerpreters Needed
va ue o
softcopy vs. hardcopy. When,
where, how often is it more effective--and how much more
effective? Provide tests of significance that include
l
i
re
at
ve frequency of exploitation functions. (U)
What about our a r rty o ana yze a
is in orma ion in amanner useful to decision makers.
r
u ure needs for photointerpreters? If exploi-
tatic~ were distributed differently or if ph otointereretation
organizations were consolidated, wrn,ld the, ne, f,.r ~~{_+,.,, ?
photoir3terpreters ne reduced? Is the distribution of
interpreters between national and department organizations
adequate? Is the distribution of their work between national
and department re
How do the various organizations involved in photointerpretation
estimate thei
f t
qurrements adequate? f
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Proponent
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No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
6 Increasing the Supply and Productivity The supply and productivity of linguists at NSA and in other
of Linguists intelligence agencies constitutes a fundamental constraint
on intelligence production. This study would review past
studies of the linguist supply and compensation problem, but
would also review machine translation and productivity
assisting devices, and attempt to develop estimates of the
cost/effectiveness of various alternatives for enhancing
the supply and productivity of linguists. (U)
7 Linguist Review Characterize the distribution of languagues spoken in different
geographic regions to assess the adequacy of linguists for
Third World coverage. (Possibly a guidance item; need for this
review is contingent upon a meeting this week, 28 July 1980,
with NSA and OSD language experts.) ~ U
8 Ocean Surveillance (Surfacp) A follow-on to Navy STOF, maritime data, and II that w.11
will focus on estimating the capability to pr uce and
disseminate such data, identify deficiencies, examine trends and
programmed systems, and develop resource implications. Key
element here is to attempt to define and develop measures of
effectiveness. (U)
9 Ocean Surveillance (Subsurface) As above but focused on subsurface surveillance. Study must
examine all sources but focus on NFIP sources. (U)
Proponent
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SIETRET,
Proposed Production Studies
Purpose/Scope/Objective
Assemble Community-wide inventory of analyst professional traits.
Contrast current analyst population with past populations; other
government professionals; professionals in kindred research fields
(Descriptive)
Analyze Community's ability to attract highly qualified graduates
Develop and cost proposals for enhancing recruitment practices
if applicable. (Prescriptive)
Draw a profile of the non-ADP programs, planned and underway, to
promote analyst skills, expertise, morale and notification.
'Descriptive)
Present programs include a wide range (sabbaticals, rotational
assignments, incentive awards, etc.) of intuitively plausible
techniques for promoting analyst performance. What is missing
is any set of standards for gauging how much would be invested
in each. In the absence of this kind of understanding, a little
bit of everything get tried. Somewhere out there, there must be
a body of literature (hopefully including empirical studies) that
addresses the relationship between such measures, including the
physical working environment, and average levels of professional
1 Analyst __ Recruitment: Characteristics and
Qualifications of Production Analysts
2 Analyst Recruitment: Community's
Competitive Position re New Graduates
3 Analyst Trainin and Support: Programs
to Enhance Analyst Training and Support
4 Analyst Training and Support: Value of
t~{1 ernativee Support Measures
5 Ilse of External Contractors: Level of
Usage
6 Use of External Contractors: 1uidelines
for rmpToiying Txternal support
identify it, and summarize the findings applicable to
supporting intelligence analysts. (Perspective)
Document the Community's current use of external contract support;
contrast with past levels. Identify motives for using contractors
(no in-house capability, desire for independent perspective, etc.)
(Descriptive)
Formulate Qeneral orincinals oovenrina the rhnire hptra*n internal
and external anlaysis. (Definitional)
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Proponent
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No. Title Purpose/scope/Dbjective
7 Analytical Capacity: Measurement Is there any reasonable way to quantify and compare the Community's
Methodology capacity to produce intelligence on various subjects, in various
geographic areas of interest. Existing management information
systems can provide approximate data on the dollars and manpwoer
that is being put into a particular subject/region sector of
the production organizations, but can we implicitly assume that
this relates in some homogenous way to our capacity to make things
come out of that sector? Are there sectors inherently less
efficient at transforming resource inputs to production capacity
than others? If so, this should he recognized and accommodated in
the resource allocation decision process. (Definitional)
8 Production Management: ITPpic selection consmoftsegenses of lfeinitiatedvarious
studies. DescribeoComnunity-mechaniisms for
%er a^, t r
coordinating production activities {necessary to assure that
parallel analytical efforts proceed only as a result of deliberate
choice). (nescriptive)
9 Production Management: Collector Inter- Identify major lines of communication between production sectors
actions and their principal sources of information in the collection
sphere. survey producers for insights concerning bottlenecks to
the timely flow of information and how they might he alleviated.
(Descriptive/Prescriptive)
in Production Management: Resource Allo- Fndeavor to set down a rigorous, truly cogent rationale for
cation Methodology telling good redundant analysis from bad redundant analysis.
Convert this conceptual foundation into plain English rules-of-
thumb for guiding production managers in their decisions
concerning commitment to the scarce analytical resources
they control. (Definitional)
11 The __!L. l1 f Intelligence: National survey national intelligence producers for up-to-date data on
, or + ~t np their output: names and types of puglications, distribution
lists, release tre,auency, and t}ie
_.,..,,-a ?? tti? PAM nrniartc of previous years, with certain
methodological improvements and, optimally, expanned =o 'inciUif=
the full range of trans-departmental products, not simply
periodicals. (Descriptive)
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No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
12 Marketing and Product Evaluation: Supply- Document and compare ten-year trends in the subject-regional
Demand Correlations demand for intelligence products, as reflected in changing
patterns of DCID 1/2 priorities, and the allocation of production
resources, as recorded in CIRIS. (Descriptive)
13 Marketing and Product Evaluation: Practi- Evaluate compatibility of subject emphases in the different
cal Applications of Formal Priority (DCID 1/2, NITS, KIR) priority statements (i.e., demand proxies)
Statements now in existence. Survey procedures to ascertain impact of these
documents in resource commitment decisions. Seek suggestions
for improving their applicability to this purpose. If there
appear to be inherent major limitations with formal priority
statements, what alternative methods might he employed to
effectively communicate consumer interests to intelligence pro-
ducers? Explore the suitability of incorporating expressions
of the demand for intelligence in the program guidance, and in
the budget deliherations. (Descriptive/Definitional`,
14 Marketing and Product Evaluation: Ascertain how the Community now goes about evaluating the quality
Mechanisms for Procedures for Product of its product, and the satisfaction of various consumers with
Evaluation it. Evaluate the desirability and feasibility of establishing
mechanisms for effecting product evaluation and providing
consumer feedback on a sustained basis. What standards would
be applied? Are there intrinsic qualities to an analytical
product, separate and distinct from the pleasure with which
it is greeted by the consumer, which make it good or had?
(Definitional)
15 Distribution of Collected Information: Congressional committees have raised the compartmentation issue
Influence of Impediments to the Distri- often. Additionally, there seems to he some sentiment among
bution of Collected Information on the analysts that agencies tend to favor their own production
Quality of Analysis components with preferential access to the information their
collection components have acquired. How real is the perennial
compartmentation issue (i.e., do the analysts themselves feel
it is an impediment? Are informal channels available that mitigate
its influence in denying information?), are the competitive
institutional obstacles important? What, if any. changes might
facilitate the productive flow of inter-producer information?
(Descriptive/Definitional)
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No.
Title
16
Process-Wide:
Identification of Resource
ToHTtTeneck (via case studies)
17
Process-Wide: Fconomic Model of the
Intelligence Production Process
IR
Process-Wide:
Functional Structure for
the NFIP
Purpose/Scope/Objective
forces can be expected in time of war? Can we provide the essential
information they need in contingency operations? And so forth. Yet
we have no ready means of associating the resources we consume, or
plan to consume, with the missions at which we seek to excel.
Cnl1 c$ ir+n nnPratinns are organized according to the form the data
This effort, or series of efforts, would examine recent instances
of particularly acute criticism of Community performance
in search of examples of where the availability of more or
different resources might have had a significantly beneficial
effect. Delays in detecting a Soviet combat presence in Cuba,
and North Korea's build-up of its ground forces, are two prime
candidates for such analyses, which need not start from scratch
(as in the traditional sense of a "post mortem"), but would
rather draw heavily upon already completed investigations and
reviews. The emphasis would be on specific resource solutions to
what went wrong, and the general applicability of those solutions
elsewhere in the production Community. (Prescriptive)
Studies such as the search for specific resource bottlenecks,
above, presume some prior understanding of the sequential functions
which constitute the production (in the broad, Pconmtc sense)
process. While the existence of such a model is implicit in
this and other topical issues, such as the balance between
collection, (data) processing, and production (in the less broad,
intelligence usage), the understanding has never been made explicit
Achieving arigorous comprehensive representation of the intelligen
process would he no mean undertaking, hut basic research along this
line could, if successful, provide a fundamentally useful and endur
tool to successive generations of Community and program managers, n
to mention production/analysis analysts. (Definitional)
Consumers tend to rate the Community's performance in a functional
context on a case-by-case basis: How well did we do in providing
indications and warning of some military gesture, or change in
political status? What assurances can we make about our ability to
confirm treaty compliance? What contributions to the operating
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No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective Proponent
disciplines. The budget is organized on the first tiers by organi-
zation, and by major collection system. In a nutshell, all of this
makes it very hard to relate resource inputs to product inputs, to
mission capabilities, to national security benefits (which are,
after all, what we presume to be buying when we spend money on
intelligence). Is there a better, more functional way to organize
our classification of resource distributions? Maybe not. Whatever
the logical appeal of the PPRS-like structure, inputs may simply not
be practically divisible in such a manner. But it might be worth
some research to find out. (Definitional)
19 Process-Wide: The Roles and Requirements A study of alternatives for improving the production capabilities
of Producers of SAT Intelligence of SAT centers was proposed in the D/OCI/RM memo of 13 November
197o. Agreement to defer such an effort was subsequently
reached yet a better understanding of how these producers
function--the collection sources they draw upon, the kinds
of products they distribute, and the market for those products
(few seem to surface as entities at the national level, but many
national products, particularly military ones, may incorporate
SAT "intermediate goods")--could be of interest to Community
management, which now reports that one-quarter (via CIPIS) to
one-half (7RR via the GIB) of the Community's total production
budget is devoted to SAT subjects. (Description/Prescriptive)
20 Analysis Centers Where are the analysis centers within the Intelligence Community?
RMS must be aware of studies and evaluations within the Community,
who is performing them, how well are they done, and how they may
he applicable to RMS issues.
21 Policy Refjection Due to Intelligence identify perceived deficiencies in national intelligence systems
Deficiencies which have contributed to the rejection of attractive foreign
political, economic or military policy options.
22 Energy Theme To expand analysis of foreign energy potential, policy, etc.
OOF wants to add bodies (22) claiming CIA is not doing it wei
A ~.+-jy ?1 4's' aine, what is rnmrtcnity chino at
present? Now valuahle is present effort? What are shortfalls?
Does shortfall correction require more resources or redirection?
Which programs should do what?
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No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
23 CIAP Third World Theme Basically intended to upgrade Third World analysis--relates to
"Contingency" and "Intelligence Crises SIGINT Support." A study
could determine: what is Community doing at present? How valuable
is present effort? What are shortfalls? Does shortfall correction
require more resources or redirection? Which programs should do
what? (U)
24 Delegated Production Program The Defense Department has distributed responsibility for the
maintenance of certain orders of battle or organizations outside
the Washington area through DIA's Delegated Production Program.
How well is the program working? Do the organizations with new
responsibilities have adequate support? Are they truly the main
producer of intelligence on their designated topics? Could this
same kind of broadened distribution of responsibility he applied
to other topics? Could it he applied to other organizations in
the Conrmmity? What would he the net effect on the resources
required? On the distribution of these resources? (S)
25 Science and Technology Centers Concern has recently been expressed about a decline in the pro-
duction of long-term SAT research products. What role does SAT
intelligence play in the Community? How are resources distributed
through the Community for support of SAT intelligence collection,
processing, analysis and production? Could specific aspects of
this support he consolidated to free additional resources to
increase analysis and production? (C)
26 ELINT Applications Study An examination of the intelligence problems to which ELINT con-
tributes in order to improve RMS decisionmaking about FLINT
collection and processing initiatives. (ll)
The analog to the PAD efforts on imagery tasking, exploitation
of ADP. Should do this jointly with IRO and build on IPM's
FLINT data flow study. (I1)
27 Intelligence on Soviet Space Svs` Follow-up to current NIF to focus on: key intelligence gaps and
significance; current, key sources and production agencies; arenas
.. ?.,{r.,.. rn? e r Awnnrprtc fnr f+,+tjra nrntl, inn? Anr) rnCni rf
implications. ronTF: This would be conducted with CT and the inte'
agency group that prepared NIF. Thus, a great deal of the effort
could be completed in a short ime and with minimal RMS investment.
I view this as a pilot. This kind of assessment could he done
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e.g., NIF 11-3/R. (II)
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Mo. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
28 Political and Economic Intelligence A follow-on to the SAT study that will focus on the quality and
quantity of product, deficiencies in product, prospects based on
environment changes and new collection systems, and
conclude with resource implications. (U)
29 Pesource/Production Data Rase A follow-up to suggestion by SRP in Cuban Brigade post mortem.
(This is a current RMS action).
30 Minimum Essential Data Rase
Identify the minimum elements of information needed to support
different types of contingency planning/operations (e.g., hostage
rescue, show of force, etc.). Compare these needs with current
basic intelligence holdings. Estimate the costs of maintaining
this minimum data on "X" countries with updates every "Y" months.
(PTA is working on something like this now; maybe we can partici-
page or, at least, reinforce via guidance).
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11"T SIL'117SET
Proposed Collection Studies
No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
1 Open Source Collection How much are we spending throughout the Community on open source
collection and processing? Now are those resources distributed?
What use is made of the information derived from open sources? Are
there categories of sources we do not tap? Are there areas of the
2 Collection Requirements for Imagery and Collection requirements for imagery and signal intelligence are
Signal Intelligence submitted to the Community through entirely separate mechanisms.
A means for closing the gap between the two types of sensors in
order to increase substantive intelligence return should be
investigated. The methods by which requirements are developed
should be examined, and the unique as well as similar features of
SIf,INT and imagery should he identified. The entire requirements
process for both types of sensors should he reviewed with the
objective of establishing closer cooperation and better resources
utilization. (U)
3 Structure for Analysis
4 Broad-Area Search Exploitation What are the resource/timeliness/intelligence impacts of various
Methodologies broad-area search methods and accounting procedures? We still do
not fully understand the implications of small pieces of imagery
versus large contiguous areas. (U)
r'nll ~i^r Peg r.. "e't'
HcW sr'reitivp is "4n+P_l'igencP to ..f '11 Prfinn fro~te71r. 1~
requirements, i.e., what happens if two-month, four-month, and
six-irrontf! searcli requir mentS are ~, vppec; Go wiper-munrii , 11
month and eight-month requirements? The quantity of imagery
decreases but, what is the effect on intelligence? (U)
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Purpose/Scope/Objective
7 DOE Technology for Comprehensive Test
Ran Treaty
8 Third World HUMINT Study
A study of the productivity of human source collection against
the Third World, and the benefits/costs of alternatives for
expansion and enhancing the productivity of human source
collection against Third World targets. (11)
g A study of the productivity of against
ar--raryets A-group targets and of alternatives for en ancing the pro-
ductivity of these sites. (S/CCO)
in Benefit/Cost Study of NRO Ground Support With the growth in cost of ?RP hardware and manpower, it is
Operations, Contractor Technical Support important that cost reductions that cut into Contractor Technical
and Sustaining Engineering Activities Support and sustaining engineering by vigorously opposed because
the value of these activities far outweigh their costs. (The
funding allocations to these support activities tend to he "level
of effort" allocations and are often difficult to justify). This
study would develop quantitative estimates of the benefits accruin
from these activities and show that the costs are well worthwhile.
(S/TK)
11 NPO Cost Comparisons Cost comparisons between Programs A, R and C of the NRO, specifi-
cally survivability options, etc. (S/TK)
12 FurvivahiIit Identify possible cross-program architectures for providin.
dudl)it i to Or ?w y 5'e""'. r
Depend -i ng upon results of current stud es 1 -?'I "1 daps and pray i i
more rinorous determination of utility. (u)
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No. Title
Future Adequacy of National SIGINT
Systems
Purpose/Scope/Objective
0
0
Proponent
Soviet COMINTI
Gary currently working for fall, but there is likely to be
follow-up.
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No. Title
1P Imagery in Agricultural Forecasting
Purpose/Scope/objective
A study to quantify the contribution o
cvctemc in their cunnnrt to
Follow-up recent , qu i i
sk this out). (S/TK)
19 Imagery in Support of SALT and ARM A study that will quantify the contribution of the various imaging
Treaty Monitoring systems in terms of changes in monitoring confidence for variations
in the imagery mix and tasking/exploitation. Special emphasis here
should he on the role of search imagery. (ll)
20 Emplaced Sensors A review of past programs in this area to determine their success,
reasons for failure, and prospects for the future. Especially
interested in applications to LASINT, telemetry, and contingency
support.
21 Third World COMINT Follow-up to
contractor s
22 Satellite Peplacement Strategy
Proponent
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No. Title
Proposed Crisis/STOF Support Studies
Purpose/Scope/0hjective
1 Post Mortems Post mortems on recent crises: what collectors contributed,
1 role of analysis vis-a-vis raw data etc.
l
2 Post-Mortems on Recent Key Events
iness, va ue,
time
(Nicaragua, Afghanistan). (U)
Recent key events (e.g., Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, etc.)
need to be analyzed with emphasis on the performance and
contribution of collection systems and production organizations,
siginificant trends, and potential resource implications.
This is another good candidate for an interagency group approach.
(U)
3 Third World Crisis Coverage How could overhead be used as a backup for Third World Crisis
coverage if current access denied
second/third parties, BI, etc.;f or its, pru _ ",
analysis? What would i cos to provide a useful increment of
this kind of backup? (S)
4 Intelligence Crises and SICIP'T Support A few questions were posed to NSA in late spring 1WIi0 on this
subject. It is worth pursuing. (tf)
There are approaches to crisis prediction that not been tried.
5 NFAC Crisis Prediction Center
I have a proposal for an NFAC Crisis Prediction Center that shoulI
he fleshed out with NFAC's cooperation. If it flies and is
successful, it could he extremely cost effective. (II)
6 Crisis Anticipation A mechanism and reasponsible D'FIP organization is required to
focus basic intelligence production on Third World areas where
contingency operations are considered most likely. Lead times
would he longer than for traditional IhW, and, as a result, less
accurate predictions would be expected. A review is required to
assess whether current IWW organizations could assume this respon-
sibility (e.g., the NTH/Warning 0oP IRW system) or whether a
separate aroun shou d ne established. in addition, the review
L....,a .1 .x>a-sl hraw the nrodirtionc of such a gropu could best he
reflected in K. priority documents ( .e., the NITS, DCI) Ii ,
IICP).
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Proponent
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No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
7 Third World Data Bases When the Seventh Fleet was sent to patrol off the coast of Iran
during the hostage crisis, the intelligence officers charged with
briefing the crews found that their data bases did not contain ade
information. This complaint about data b0sec in Third World
resources are being devoted to building u n
Third World areas? Are those resources being directed
toward areas of the world where conflicts are most likely? Are th
files being filled with the kinds of information likely to be
needed for the types of contingency operations possible in these
likely to need the inforamtion? (S)
R Indications and Warning In the decisions on the procurement of technical collection
systems over the past few years, the emphasis has been to obtain m
near-real-time information. I&W Watch Centers have been
established in many locations throughout the Community to take
advantage of the timeliness of this information. How much is the
Community spending on these centers? Are they doing an adequate
job? How might they be improved? Do we need as many (at least 23
as have been established? Are they located in the right places?
Might they be consolidated--at least those in the Washington area?
How well do they respond in crisis? Are they prepared to respond
equally well to crises in every part of the world? (S)
9 National Contributions to Carrier Building from examine the capability of national
Protection systems to assist in a overall carrier defense problem. (U)
10 Battlefield Exploitation and Target In its markup of the FY 1981 NFIP budget (p. 82), the HPSCI
Acquisition BETA System expressed its concern regarding BETA system cost growth
and development problems. Since the PPSCI has made the joint
ROTA program an item of special interest, the PCI should he
provided an independent IC Staff assessment of where the RFTA
program stands with respect to both cost growth and development
proh) ecn.. (11)
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No. Title Purpose/Scope/objective
11 Intelligence Support for the Persian gulf/ In its markup of the FY 1981 NFIP budget, the SSCI recommended
Indian ocean (p. 32) that the intelligence program should be strengthened to
_".1 Wirh tat d wnands of the Persian Gulf/Indian ocean area. It
12 Intelligence Support for the P1F As a follow-on to our study on NFIP Support to Contingency
ht he useful to have an IC Staff assessment of
it mi
g
Forces,
what type of intelligence support is being provided the RoF. Study
should not he undertaken until later in the year after the PoF
has had an opportunity to organize its resources. (11)
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Other Proposed Studies
No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
1 Manpower and Training What resources are devoted to offering individuals the opportunity
to receive training or serve rotational assignments in other
organizations in the Community? Would not an analyst benefit from
a few months spent as a photointerpreter? Or a photointerpreter fr
a rour in the Requirements Evaluation Staff? Should a program
(similar to the PCI Exceptional Intelligence Analyst Program) be
started to encourage and facilitate such exchanges? (C)
? Research and Pevelopment How are the Community's resources distributed for R&D? Which
organizations receive the bulk of money? What types of research
are they doing? Are there areas of research that are being
neglected? What kinds of problems could benefit from RM. How
rea+lily does the PM) Community adapt to chaning intelligence
problems? (U)
3 IISoviet Satellite PHOTINT I as historically been counter-HUMINT
i
nunTTUT STRTWT etc ) as legitimate areas of concern for
(
a
the CI people. Effective countering of Soviet satellite PHOTINT
would he extremely expensive to government and industry. A study
involving the DCI/CI Staff and RMS could attempt to find reasonably
alternatives, answering questions such as: what could be done?
What would it buy for us? What could it cost? (U)
4 Incremental Values A very difficult cross-program area which would be looked at is an
attempt to understand incremental values. Starting with the prese
budget allocations, what is the added value per dollar (relative)
for: SKINT versus HUMINT; Collection versus Processing versus
Production; any other combinations that made sense. The whole areas
of contingency support and intelligence crises are very difficult
because of the tremendous resources needed for data base acquisition
and maintenance on a third worldwide basis. There is a possible
alternative which could provide us with needed coverage at much less
cost. 00
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C'F ET;
No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
5 Funding of Intelligence Systems In its markup of the FY 1981 MFIP Budget (pp. 42-43), the HPSCI
noted "with alarm the increasing trend toward relaying on DoD
NFIP augmentation funding to provide needed tactical capa-
hilities." Funding for needed tactical capabilities may soon be
provided by anyone of five different sources: NFIP, joint funding
arrangements outside of the NFIP, IRA, TCP or DRSP. Someone needs
to stand back from the actual budget drill and look at the funding
problem in an objective way (if it is possible). A comparative
assessment of what is funded where and why; what might be funded
where and why; and how this all relates to possible Congressional
concern about the proliferation of funding mechanisms might provide
some very interesting insights into where we might be headed in the
late 1980's. (ll)
6. DCIO 1/2 Priorities OLIO 1/? priorities are constantly being adjusted by users,
producers and collectors of intelligence. PAO1 should undertake
a study which focues on some of the following questions: who propos{
changes to the priorities and with what frequency; what causes
someone to recommend changes in priorities; what, if any, impact
is experienced when the priorities are in fact changed. In a
recent letter, the Chairman of the SSCI asked the DCI to review
"the DCID 1/2 priorities for the Caribbean and Central America as
of 30 June 1979 and 15 July 1980, and what actions occurred in the
interim." Changes in priorities for the period 1970-1980 could be
the focus of the study. (11)
7. Intelligence Community Support of the The Center for the Study of Intelligence recently (May 1980)
Congress, the Public and the Media recommended that someone should undertake a study designed to
explore at a minimum the following questions: Is the Intelligence
Community hest able to provide intelligence support to the
Congress, or should the legislative branch have its own intelligence
analysis system" What is the impact of disseminating unclassified
analysis to the public? Is this the best way to provide intelligence
or should there he less emphasis on public disclosure of analysis?
How does the dissemination of information to the media affect the
-nspn+ir..,q rmlationchin that aapmc to pxiat hatwwpn CTA
and the press? Since the impact of intelligence on each of these
groups is recognized, the role of intelligence should he studied in
a systematic matter. (U)
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f., r
No. Title Purpose/Scope/Objective
R PAO Management Information System (MIS) An internal study to define the kinds of Community and management
+ rr out its
o ca
bt
t
9 RMS Budget Ranking Methodology
y
o
i
ine y an
information that PAO needs to rou
missions. This shy could support a more broadly based RMS/CTS
effort and should also help define how we should manage our intern
files in the light of the automated registry system. (ll)
An evaluation of how the budget ranking process has been carried
out in the part of how it is planned for the fall, with special
emphasis on the role of PAO. Options for improving the process
(on a pilot basis) should be developed and evaluated. (U)
In. I I A review of the uses for these comets to determine how
l
ar
important they are to 0OO operations and find out what particu
requirements are most important to assure. (S)
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Attachment 2
PAO Resource Allocation Criteria
PAO studies should be chosen to obtain the highest expected
value for improving DCI decisionmaking on NFIP resource allocation
issues. There are three components to this measure of effectiveness:
? the probability that the study will actually produce
additional information or analytic insight;
? the probability that the information or insight will affect
the decision; and
? the value of the decision to the NFIP in terms of
intelligence payoff, cost (both in the long and short
term), or political sensitivity (must do something now).
If quantifiable, these components could be mutliplied to provide
an estimate of expected value. These measures are highly subjective,
however, and not always of equal importance to PAO. In particular,
it may be necessary to ignore low values of the second component
(likelihood that the analysis will be used) since PAO's role in some
cases will be to "seek the truth," or "to find a better method,"
without regard to short term opportunities. (An additional
consideration is that in many cases, this probability is affected by
the way that the study is defined and carried out).
In selecting PAO studies:
? cross program issues are valued most highly;
? studies within a program area may be justified if the area
is complex and poorly understood.(e.g., HF Modernization)
or being superficially treated (e.g., satellite replacement
strategy, shuttle usage economics);
? but studies that take advantage of previous PAO work are
also attractive.
Acceptable mechanisms for getting work done include various
levels of PAO commitment, including:
? guidance to a program to do a study, but with phased
outputs (don't repeat last year's mistake), perhaps even
including an agreed-upon terms of reference;
? CT/RMS directed Community working groups;
? CT/RMS study teams with data call from Community;
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? PAO/IRO/PBO/DSG teams;
? Use of contractors either in support of a PAO study or as a
full study defined and monitored by PAO.
? PAO study in its entirety.
The selection process is an iterative one in which John Koehler
and the other offices will be involved. Of course, our own
analytical strengths and Community relationships are factors to be
considered.
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D/PAO Suggested Study Program for FY 80*
Subject
NFIP Manpower Analysis
Impact of Future Technologies on Intelligence
Cross-Program Assessment Methodologies
DCI's Role in Crisis Management
Non-NFIP Collection and Disseminaticn rrt s
Community Production Management
Alternative COMINT Collection within the CCP
Alternative Sources of Overt Collection
Low ELINT Options
Dissemination of ELINT from Advanced Systems
modifications
Disposition
Not accepted
Not accepted
Not accepted
Not accepted
Not accepted
Not accented
Not accepted
Not accepted
Not accepted
Not accepted
NSA tasked to do this
Incorporated into FY 82 issue paper for Program Review
Not accepted
Incorporated into FY 82 issue paper for Program Review
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*D/PAO Staff Note dated 8 Nov 79, subject: PAO Study Plan
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GONTR
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D/DCI/RM Suggested Study Plan for FY 80*
Subject
Science and Technology in our Centers
Training in Support of Production Analysts
COMINT Collection Against Less Developed Countries
Support to Contingency Forces
Potential/Economic Intelligence
Never begun
Never begun
Replaced by
In progress
21 July 1980
P. A. Metress
Disposition
Mean Mission Duration
Alternative Investment Strategies for Survivability Enhancements
Alternative Investment Strategies
Interactive Tasking
*D/DCI/RM memo dated 13 Nov 1979; subject: Study Plan
In progress with contractor support
Evolved into an FY 82 issue paper for Program Review
Terminated
In progress with contractor support
In progress with contractor support
Evolved into FY 82 issue paper for Program Review
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PAO Projected Study Program for FY 80
Study
Survivability Enhancenents*
Implications of Changing U.S.
Strategic Forces Employment
Policy*
NATO Intelligence Structure*
NFIP Support to Contingency
Forces*
Tactical Warning of an Air Attack
on Naval Forces*
Value of Maritime Intelligence*
Defense Attache System (DAS)
Requester Responsibility
Date Assigned Status
8 Aug 79 In progress
26 Sep 79 Terminated
Disposition
26 Sep 79 Never begun
26 Sep 79 Completed
26 Sep 79 In progress
26 Sep 79 In progress
28 Mar 80 Never begun
28 Mar 80 Never begun
28 Mar 80 Terminated
28 Mar 80 Incorporated No further action
into another study required
28 Mar 80 In progress
28 Mar 80 Terminated
28 Mar 80 Completed
251A
*Contractor supported study
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FY 81 Program Review Papers:
- Support to Contingency
Operations
- Imagery Exploitation
- Imagery Tasking
FY 81 Budget Review Papers:
- (to be completed at a later date)
Requester Responsibility
D/DCI/RM
O/DCI/RM
D/DCI/RM
D/DCI/RM
D/DCI/RM
Date Assigned Status
17 Jun 80 Completed
17 Jul 80 Completed
17 Jul 80 Completed
17 Jul 80 Completed
11 Jul un Completed
17 Jul 80 Completed
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rrnn"--r
Disposition
No further action
required
Sent to DCI Jul 80
No further action
required
No further action
required
No further action
required
Sent to DCI Jul RO
Sent to DCI Jul 80
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TRAINING COURSES ON OVERT COLLECTION CAPABILITIES
1. RECOMMENDATION: The HRC'S Orientation Training Advisory Group
(OTAG) should ensure the development of appropriate orientation and
training courses on the various overt collectors, their capabilities and
limitations, and the requirements and tasking mechanisms available for
IC production organizations. These courses should be developed with,
and for the use of, CIA, DIA, and State. Consideration should also be
given to holding joint collectof.producer training sessions so that both
may develop a firsthand understanding of the other's professional
capabilities. It is to be noted that the Department of Energy has taker
steps along this line by establishing courses on nuclear proliferation
for IC collectors.
2. RECOMMENDATION: CIA, DIA, and State training schools should be
encouraged to develop and conduct S&T orientation courses for overt
collectors and reporters who have only limited technical backgrounds,
for example, defense attaches and economic officers who are to be assigned
S&T responsibilities in the field.
3. RECOMMENDATION: The HRC's OTAG should work into its training
courses the concept of the operational and reporting differences between
overt and clandestine HUMINT collection operations, educating IC analysts
regarding the construction of collection requirements for these two very
different types of collection. CIA and DIA training schools should con-
sider developments of specific short courses or portions of courses for
this purpose.
4. RECOMMENDATION: DC/DIS-CIA and DIA should develop training courses
on foreign intelligence services for both collectors and analysts so that
these sources of foreign S&T intelligence can be more fully exploited by
the Intelligence Community on national security issues.
As a generalized comment to RECOMMENDATIONS 1 through 4, DIA is aware
of no training course within the Military Intelligence structure which
addresses overt collection as a separate entity. It is true that ideal'y
joint collector-producer training sessions would provide the one with
an appreciation of the other's professional capabilities and, more im-
portantly, the task he faces. The Defense Intelligence School presently
offers a two-week Scientific and Technical Intelligence Analyst's Intro-
ductory Course (STIAIC) which presents a comprehensive overview of the
national foreign intelligence community with emphasis on the complete S&T
cycle of requirements generation, collection and production, as well as
technological developments in selected world areas. A considerable por-;,icn
of this course would be of 'benefit to nontechnical collectors. Probably
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the most beneficial practice over the years, on a considerable scale in
the Air Force and to a lesser degree in the Army and Navy, has been the
early assignment of technical officers to collection units in the field
and subsequently as analysts in an S&T production element. This practice
imparts an appreciation and mastery of the total S&R program which can
be duplicated in no other way, and which encourages many officers to make
it a full career. 6'
As regards expanded overt S&T Collection, it is clear that priorities
will determine availability of resources, which will in turn determine
the thrust of training to be given, and this to individuals of varying
background and primary assignment. As recommended in the cover memorandum,
we feel a realistic approach is to launch a combined pilot collection
effort in a specific area and to use the experience gained and the short-
comings revealed as a basis for remedial training, either in CONUS or by
means of packaged instructional material to be forwarded to the individual
on station. The essential theme must be that at all times the collector
must know what he has been asked to do and why, and what constitutes an
adequate and responsive intelligence report.
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