COMMUNIST CHINA: FOREIGN TRADE 1967 AND PROSPECTS FOR 1968

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CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6
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27
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December 22, 2016
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October 1, 2009
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May 1, 1968
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Approved For Release 2009/10/06: ~ CIA-RDP85TOO875RO01 60001 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: r CIA-RDP85T00875R00160001 Approved 5 For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP8T00875R001600010004-6 F i S DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENG,E Intelligence Memorandum Communist China: Foreign Trade 1967 and.Prospects for 1968 DOCUMENT LIBRARY RLE COPY DD NOT DESTROY 25X1 Secret Secret ER IM 68-54 MAY 1968 COPY NO. 62 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 WARNING This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended, Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law, Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET The data for 1967 in this memorandum are preliminary estimates and subject to modification as additional information becomes available. Because of rounding, compcnents may not add to the totals shown in the -cables and tabulations. Ton- nages are in metric tons. - iii - SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Communist China: Foreign Trade 1967 and Prospects for 1968 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence May 1968 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM SECRET S nary The steady recovery of Communist China's foreign trade, which began in 1963, came to an abrupt halt in 1967. Preliminary estimates place total turnover for 1967 at $4.2 billion, 3 per- cent below the total of $4.3 billion in 1966. Imports increased slightly as a result of larger COMMUNIST CHINA: FOREIGN TRADE 1959 AND 1963-67 4,265 1959 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Note: This memorandum was produced solely by CIA. It was prepared by the Office of Economic Research. SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET purchases from Western Europe, but exports went down moderately because of the disturbances of the Cultural Revolution and strained relations with Hong Kong and the USSR. Given the self-imposed problems confronting China in 1967, the trade performance was a remarkably successful one. Foreign trade in 1968 probably will show a more pronounced decline. China's trade with Communist countries dropped 8 percent, resulting in a further increase in the Free World share of Chinese trade, to 75 percent. Trade with the USSR continued its decline, reflect- ing political differences; trade with other Communist areas fell off by small amounts. With respect to the Free World, the higher turnover with Western Europe and Australia almost offset reductions in trade with the less developed countries, Hong Kong, Japan, and Canada. Sino-Japanese trade declined for the first time since 1959 because of Chinese export problems and a shift of some Chinese import business to Western Europe. Grain imports fell 20 percent in 1967 because China's requirements were lower in the second half of the year as a result of an excellent harvest. Machinery and equipment purchases moved down mod- erately following a decline in contracts for whole plants, but took over from foodstuffs as the lead- ing commodity group imported. Steel and fertilizer imports increased considerably. Imports of machinery and equipment most closely related to the defense effort appear to have continued on a priority basis. China's exports declined generally, but textiles and foodstuffs were particularly hard hit. Preliminary calculations lead to an estimate that China's balance of payments with the Free World showed a deficit of $55 million in 1967 compared with a surplus of $155 million in 1966. Neverthe- less, Chinese reserves of gold and foreign exchange at the end of 1967 were at least $600 million, a level considered adequate for emergency requirements. SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET 1. The steady recovery in Communist China's foreign trade, which began in 1963, came to an abrupt halt in 1967. Preliminary estimates place total turnover in 1967 at roueyhly $4.2 billion, 3 percent below the total of $4.3 billion in 1966. Imports are believed to have increased 1 percent to about $2.1 billion, and exports declined 6 percent (see Tables 1, 2, and 3). The following tabulation gives trade turnover in the past five years as well as for 1959, the peak year prior to the collapse of the Leap Forward: Million US $ 1959 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Turnover 4,265 2, 770 3,220 3,850 4,295 4, 1 80 Imports 2,065 1,200 1,470 1,855 2,045 2,075 Exports 2,205 1,575 1,750 1,995 2,245 2,110 Imports 2. China's imports edged up by about $30 mil- lion in 1967 because of a rapid rise in purchases from Western Europe, as shown in the following tabulation: Million US $ 1966 1967 Total imports 2,045 2,075 Western Europe 510 695 Canada, Australia, and Argentina 405 320 Japan 331 302 USSR 175 130 Other 624 628 - 3 - SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET 3. Imports from Western Europe increased 36 percent, or $185 million. Larger imports of steel and fertilizer highlighted this rise. Purchases from Western Europe would have risen even further but for the closure of the Suez Canal, which created a backlog of several months in fertilizer shipments and caused a two-week break in the delivery of China's other imports. Shipping delays were aggra- vated by congestion in Chinese ports and by harass- ment of crews of foreign ships during intense periods of the Cultural Revolution. 4. Lower purchases from other major areas offset most of the rise in imports from Western Europe. Grain imports from Canada, Australia, and Argentina fell by about $85 million in 1967. This reduction reflected the excellent Chinese harvest of 1967. Japan's exports to China declined by $29 million because a Western European cartel gave China sub- stantial price concessions on fertilizer and because China insists that trade with Japan remain balanced. Finally, Sino-Soviet trade suffered further from heightened political hostilities; Chinese imports from the Soviet Union declined by about $45 million. China's imports from other areas were a mixture of small increases and decreases. Exports 5. After four years of uninterrupted recovery, Chinese exports declined by an estimated $135 mil- lion in 1967. The only bright spot was exports to Malaysia and Singapore, as shown in the following tabulation: Million US $ Total exports 2,245 2,110 Western Europe 365 335 Japan 291 256 Hong Kong a/ 377 320 Malaysia and Singapore 142 185 USSR 145 130 Other 925 884 a. Net of entrepot trade with third countries. SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET 6. Export performance during the year was strongly influenced by both internal and foreign developments. By 1967 much of the domestic industrial capacity idled by the Leap Forward was back in opera- tion and the traditional markets had been recovered. But overall exports were hurt when the disruptions of the Cultural Revolution curtailed the production of some export goods and hampered the internal trans- portation of others. Also, China's exports to Japan and Western Europe, which had expanded rapidly from 1963 until 1966, declined by $65 million in 1967 primarily because of reduced foreign demand. Finally, the direct political confrontation with Hong Kong and the USSR, which arose out of the Cultural Revolution, caused a combined loss of $72 million in exports to these two areas. 7. Despite these problems, China was able to keep the decline in exports well controlled. During the final quarter of the year the Cultural Revolution moderated, exports to Hong Kong revived, and the Canton Trade Fair was completed successfully follow- ing a month's delay. Moreover, export losses were partially offset by export gains in some less de- veloped countries, notably Malaysia and Singapore.* Direction of Trade 8. Preliminary estimates of Communist China's trade in 1967 indicate a decline of about 1 percent with the Free World and roughly 8 percent with the Communist countries. The Free World share of China's trade rose slightly, to 75 percent, as follows: it Because presently available information on China's trade with the Zess developed countries in 1967 is so fragmentary, it is possible that later information will show a larger than estimated in- crease in exports to these countries. SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET 1966 1967 Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Total trade 4,295 100 4,180 100 Free World 3,160 74 3,140 75 Developed countries 1,845 43 1,975 47 Less developed countries 910 21 825 20 Hong Kong and Macao a/ 400 9 340 8 Communist 1,135 26 1,040 75 USSR 320 7 255 6 Other 815 19 785 19 a. Net of entrepot trade with third countries. 9. The slight drop of $20 million in China's trade with the Free World in 1967 was the net re- sult of increases with the developed countries and reductions with the less developed countries and Hong Kong. The more marked decline of $95 million with the Communist countries resulted from a sharp drop in trade with the USSR and small reductions with other Communist areas. Thus trade with the developed countries in 1967 was the only major source of growth in China's trade, which became still more oriented toward these countries. 10. Trade developments in 1967 changed the ranking of China's ten major trading partners, as follows: SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET Percent Percent Million of Total Million of Total US -$ World Total ten major countries 2,600 Japan 622 Hong Kong a/ 380 USSR 320 West Germany 217 Canada 214 Malaysia and Singapore 190 United Kingdom 177 Cuba 170 France 160 North Korea 150 US $ World Total ten major 61 countries 2, 519 60 14 Japan 558 13 9 Hong Kong a/ 321 8 7 West Germany 292 7 5 USSR 255 6 5 Australia 231 6 Malaysia and 4 Singapore 228 5 4 United Kingdom 201 5 4 France 146 3 4 Cuba 144 3 3 Italy 143 3 a. Net of entrepot trade with third countries. Free World 11. Japan remained China's leading trading partner in 1967 despite a 10-percent drop in their trade. China's imports of Japanese fertilizer and steel declined in the face of increased competition from Western Europe, and Chinese exports of rice fell by almost one-half because of a bumper harvest in Japan. Exports of fish also showed a considera- ble decline, probably because of Cultural Revolution disturbances. Many other exports, however, showed moderate increases. 12. Western Europe, led by West Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, registered substantial growth in trade with China. Marked increases in Chinese purchases of steel and fertilizer were highlights. Imports from West Germany increased 64 percent over- all, with steel purchases nearly five times the 1966 level. China's exports to West Germany and most other major countries in the area declined, primarily because of the slowdown in Western Europe's growth rate. Both imports aad exports increased SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET in trade with Italy, however, raising this turnover by 27 percent despite some shipments of spoiled Chinese pork and a few delays in unloading caused by Chinese infractions of Italian port regulations. 13. China's trade with the United Kingdom was buffeted during the last quarter of 1967 by the Hong Kong disturbances and the sacking of the British Embassy in Peking. Both imports and exports were hurt in Chinese trade with the United Kingdom. Im- ports, however, had been growing earlier in the year, and China's trade with the United Kingdom increased by 14 percent for the year as a whole. Sino-French trade fell off 9 percent, principally because the large sales of French trucks in 1966 were not re- peated in 1967. 14. Canada and Australia swapped places in 1967 as China's primary and secondary grain suppliers. Chinese imports from Canada slumped 45 percent and purchases from Australia soared 114 percent. Ex- ports to these countries have been pushed by the Chinese as a small counterbalance to huge grain purchases, and in 1967 exports rose by 39 percent, to $25 million, with Canada and by 8 percent, to $26 million, with Australia. 15. China's trade with the less developed countries of the Free World declined by about $85 million in 1967 because Argentina did not maintain the large grain sales of 1964-66: Sino-Argentine trade plummeted by $107 million, or 94 percent. On the other hand, Chinese exports to Malaysia and Singapore evinced only minor effects of the Cultural Revolution and advanced by 30 percent for the year. Trade with Pakistan rose to an estimated $100 million, an increase of 54 percent. Finally, trade with the United Arab Republic and Syria declined substantially as a result of the June war and the closure of the Suez Canal. Trade with other less developed countries probably showed only minor changes. These estimates of trade with the less developed countries of the Free World are based on fragmentary data. i6. Political confrontation and Cultural Revo- lution disturbances had a serious impact on China's exports to Hong Kong in 1967. Despite the SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET importance of Hong Kong to China as a source of hard currency earnings, the Chinese regime permit- ted disruptions which cut exports by about 20 percent during the second quarter and by about 60 percent during the third quarter of the year. Ex- ports revived in the fourth quarter, but trade for the year fell an estimated $59 million. Communist Countries 17. Sino-Soviet trade also felt the effects of China's political belligerence and internal turmoil in 1967. Chinese vituperation and intransigence delayed until July the signing of a trade agreement with the USSR, thus reportedly reducing the quantity of timber the Soviets could deliver and reducing the value of the trade agreement by 16 percent from the level of 1966. Following the signing of the agreement a number of problems, such as the inci- dent with the Soviet ship, Sversk, at Dairen in August 1967, hampered the fulfillment of trade con- tracts. Thus Sino-Soviet trade in 1967 declined by roughly 20 percent, to $255 million. 18. Most trade agreements with Eastern European Communist countries called for an increase in trade, but China's exports to these countries suffered the same problems encountered by exports to Western Europe, and two-way trade probably fell slightly. Trade with North Korea and Mongolia probably de- clined because of differences with China over the Cultural Revolution and because of further polari- zation in the Sino-Soviet dispute. Estimated trade with North Vietnam increased in 1967 because of Chinese aid deliveries in support of the war. Trade with Albania probably increased slightly -- also because of Chinese aid. Finally, Sino-Cuban trade fell off an estimated 15 percent, reflecting the continued cool relations between the two countries. Commodity Composition 19. The composition of Communist China's trade in 1967 changed markedly as a result of the Cultural Revolution, the improved agricultural picture, and probably some change in import priorities, as shown in the following tabulation: - 9 - SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET Million US $ Imports Exports 1966 1967 1966 1967 Total trade 2,045 23075 2,245 2,110 Foodstuffs Of which: 510 410 630 590 Grain 400 315 155 125 Crude materials 350 385 485 465 Chemicals Of which: 250 300 90 85 Fertilizer 150 180 0 0 Manufactures Of which: 905 950 925 870 Textiles 35 40 480 440 Iron and steel Machinery and 225 275 90 80 equipment 455 435 N.A. N.A. Unspecified 25 30 115 100 20. China's commodity imposts in 1967 featured reduced imports of grain and machinery and equip- ment and increased purchases of steel and fertilizer. Grain imports were maintained in the first half of the year, but the Chinese failed to contract for Canadian deliveries in the second half, possibly in anticipation of an excellent domestic harvest. Australia was the only major supplier in the second half of 1967. Thus grain imports fell sharply from 5.8 million tons ($400 million) in 1966 to 4.5 mil- lion tons ($315 million) in 1967. 21. Imports of machinery and equipment from Japan and Western Europe fell off moderately in 1967 after a rapid rise each year from 1963 to 1966. - 10 - SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET This reduction may reflect confusion and disruption in Chinese long-range planning as a result of the Cultural Revolution. China has not ordered any major Industrial plants from the Free World since early 1966; its purchases of machine tools, how- ever, were a notable exception to the general decline in machinery imports in 1967. Imports of machine tools from Japan and Western Europe.tripled in the first six months of 1967. These imports are play- ing an important role in China's.modern weapons program and the development of its general military- industrial base. 22. Chinese purchases of steel and fertilizer accelerated in 1967. Imports of steel from Japan and Western Europe increased 49 percent in the first half of 1967. Purchases from the USSR, however, may have declined in 1967 as in 1966. Fertilizer imports in 1967 were about 60 percent higher in terms of quantity than in 1966. Primarily as a result of hard bargaining, which whipsawed Western European and Japanese producers, China paid only about 20 percent more than the $150 million expended for fertilizer in 1966. 23. Among Chinese commodity exports, textiles and foodstuffs probably declined substantially, and other categories may have showed some small reductions. Textile exports to Hong Kong fell abruptly in 1967, and exports to other countries in Asia and Africa may have declined. Food exports to Japan and Hong Kong fell by 25 percent in 1967. Free World 24. Communist China's balance of payments with the Free World deteriorated during 1967 because of a reversal in the commodity trade balance and a reduction in credit receipts. These developments ended the balance-of-payments surplus China had maintained since 1964 and probably caused a deficit of about $55 million, as follows : SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET Million US $ Balance of payments with the Free World 155 -55 Commodity trade balance 105 -80 Overseas remittances 70 70 Net credits from the Free World 45 25 Foreign World aid to Free countries -50 -55 Other transactions -15 -15 25. The estimated commodity trade balance of China changed radically from a surplus of $105 million in 1966 to a deficit of $80 million in 1967 because of the curtailment of exports and the slight rise in imports described above. Overseas remittances leveled off at $70 million in 1967, after a $20 million decline in 1966. 26. Credit receipts from the Free World declined by about $20 million in 1967 because China elected to pay cash for some Australian grain and because drawings on credits for whole plants have probably tapered off. Although China's credit drawings ex- ceeded repayments by an estimated $25 million in 1967, this increment to its indebtedness was offset by the devaluation of the pound. China netted a $30 million windfall at the time of the devaluation because the majority of its debts in the Free World were denominated in pounds sterling with no value guarantee. Thus China's estimated indebtedness to the Free World actually showed a small decline, from $310 million in 1966 to $305 million in 1967. 27. Chinese aid in the form of cash and commodities to lees developed countries of the Free World increased by about 10 percent in 1967 to an estimated $55 million. The two major recipients were the United Arab Republic, which was granted $11 million in wheat (1.50,000 tons) and $10 mil- lion in hard currency following the June war, and Pakistan, which drew about $12 million on commodity credits. - 12 - SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET Communist Countries* 28. In 1967 as in 1966, China's balance of payments with the Communist countries probably showed moderate changes. Chinese exports to Com- munist countries probably fell short of planned levels in 1967 for the same reasons .that exports to the Free World declined, and China-probably drew on clearing credits to finance the trade..deficits. The export surplus in China's trade with North Vietnam and Albania probably increased moderately along with larger aid deliveries. Reserve Position 29. Despite an unfavorable balance of payments with the Free World, Chin ,e reserves remained ade- quate through 1967 and included sufficient Western currency for China to purchase about $50 million worth of gold following the British devaluation in November 1967. Moreover, as a partial offset to the balance of payments deficit, China produced roughly $25 million in gold during 1967. Thus the country's total reserves of gold and foreign ex- change probably declined by only about $30 million to an estimated $600 million, as shown in the following tabulation: China's trade and paymento relations with Communist countries are bilateral. Since any trade imbalances that occur are usually matched by credits or settled through trade the following year, these accounts have little effect on Chinese re- serves of gold and foreign exchange, SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SPiCRE'F r-1i'1J.ion US 1.966 1967 Total Gold Foreign Exchange Total Gold Foreign Exchange Beginning reserves 450 308 142 630 370 260 Changes: Balance of payments with the Free World 155 0 155 -55 0 -55 Gold purchases 0 37 -37 0 50 -50 Gold production 25 25 0 25 25 Year-end reserves 630 3/0 760 600 445 155 Prospects for 1968 30. Communist China's foreign trade probably will show a more pronounced decline in 1968 than in 1967. imports should fall off because of reduced export earnings and because investment planning was serious- ly disrupted during 1967. Exports probably will decline because of continuing disruptions in industry, transportation, and economic administration. Many of the economic dislocations of 1967 will have their major impact on trade in 1968. The decline in trade should not exceed 10 percent unless the Cultural Revolution intensifies. Domestic disturbances have continued through the first four months of 1968, and major ports are still experiencing cargo-handling problems. On the positive side, transportation has gradually improved since 1967, and China's external trade relations are not now suffering from intense political influences such as the confrontation with Hong Kong in 1967. SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Sii:(;N.E'I' 31. Import contracts for. 1968 are running later and arc generally smaller than in 1967. Unsettled domestic conditions, confused planning, and the devaluation of the British pound have delayed many cf China's annual import contracts some by three months and longer. The 1967 Fall. Canton Trade Fair was held one month late because of violence in Cantor, and some import contracts were held up long- er because the pound devalued just after the fair got under way. The Sino-Japane3e trade agreement was not signed until March 1968, more than three months later than usual. (China has signed a semi- official trade agreement with Japan each year since 1962. Transactions under this agreement accounted for about one-third of Sino-Japane o trade in 1967.) Commodity contracts under the agreement were held up another month by fears of a second pound devalua- tion. In late April, contracting began after the French franc was chosen as a new settlement currency. 32. Negotiations for fertilizer imports from Nitrex, a Western European cartel, have been delayed more than four months because of a dispute over payment of extra shipping costs on the 1967 contract. Last year Nitrex sold China $100 million worth of fertilizer.. 33. Grain imports scheduled thus far are $60 million short of the $315 million delivered in 1967. The 1968 grain harvest in China probably will be less than last year's excellent harvest. It is -inlikely that weather conditions will be as favorable as in 1967, and the regime is having problems supplying such agricultural inputs as chemical fertilizer and agricultural tools to rural areas. Thus China may make additional contracts for grain in the second half of the year, which could push grain imports to t.te 1966 level of $400 million. 34. Machinery and equipment orders in 1967 were much lower than in previous years, and no major whole plants have been contracted since early 1966. As a result, China's purchases of machinery and equipment will probably show a substantial decline in 1968. Steel contracts in licate imports of this commodity will probably continue to increase at least through the first half of 1968. gPC:R WI' Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SI~,CRE'l.' 35. China's exports appear to be in short supply for 1968. At the 1^>67 Fall Canton Fair, purchasers from Japan and Western Europe were unable to obtain some traditional commodities, and the Chinese offered unusually long delivery dates on many others. Total exports contracted under the Sino-Japanese trade agreement in March were substantially lower because China could not offer any coal and Japan would not take more than 100,000 tons of rice. More recently, early reports from the Spring Canton Fair (scheduled for 15 April to 15 May 1968) complain that Chinese exports are generally higher priced and of poorer quality. 36. Reduced trade and delayed contracting are showing up in early trade statistics reported by a few major trading partners, as shown in the follow- ing tabulation: M. llion US $ January-February January-February 1967 - 1968 Turnover Imports Exl.~.ts Turnover Imports Exports 19. s' 1 5 P. 3 17 3 , 5 62.6 110.9 Japan 66.9 24.3 42.6 57.8 27.4 30.4 Hong Kong a/ 85.8 Negl. 85,7 60.6 Negl. 60.5 lost Germany 38.1 30.3 7.8 32.4 25.1 7. 3 United Kingdom :9.0 12.66 16.2 22.7 10.0 12.7 a. Including ;'Minc'e c?xparto reexported to third countries. 37. Sino-Japanese trade should fall again in 1968 because of China's declining export capability and because of another drop in Japanese demand for Chinese rice. Japanese steel se.les have recovered after losing ground to Western Europe in 1967, but prospects for machinery and equipment sales appear less bright. 38. Trade with Western Europe probably will decline in 1968 because of higher freight costs and because China is no longer able to finance its SECRET Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 SECRET large trade deficit with this area out of current export earnings. Imports will include grain from France worth $40 million, but these purchases may be more than offset by a decline in purchases of fertilizer, machinery, and equipment. Chinese ex- ports to Western Europe are likely to fall more rapidly than in 1967 as a result of faltering supply. 39. China's trade with the less developed countries will probably show little change over 1967, unless a grain contract is signed with Argentina for the second half of 1968. Trade with Malaysia and Singapore should continue to increase, but at a slower rate since the Hong Kong confron- tation added unusual. stimulus to this trade in 1967. 40. Fxports to Hong Kong in the first two months of 1968 were down considerably from the same period in 1967, but a small improvement in 1908 over 1967 may occur unless Chinese supplies become extremely tight or political constraints recur. Trade with Hong Kong is still feeling some of the adverse effects of the confrontation in 1967. 41. Trade with the Communist countries is unlikely to increase and may decline further in 1968. Trade relations with the USSR are still marred by incidents such as the recent detention of a Soviet captain at the port of Whampoa. Of three trade agreements signed thus far with Eastern European countries, only one calls for increased trade. Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01600010004-6 Communist China: Trade with the Developed Countries of the Free World a/ 1966-67 Million US $ 1966 1967 Turnover Imports Exports Turnover Imports Exports Total world 4,295 2,045 2,245 4,180 2,075 2,110 Total Free World 3,160 1,525 1,630 3,140 1,610 1,530 Of which: Developed countries 1,845 1,140 705 1,975 1,325 650 c I n ~ East Asia and the Pacific 755 435 320 810 520 290 co C) Of which: ?Janan 622 331 291 558 302 256 Australia 120 96 24 231 205 26 Western Europe 875 510 365 1,030 695 335 Of which: West Germany 217 135 81 292 222 70 United Kingdom 177 96 82 201 131 70 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Communist China: Trade with the Developed Countries of the Free World a/ 1966-67 (Continued) Million US $ 1966 1967 Turnover Imports Exports Turnover Imports Exports Western Europe (Continued) France 160 111 48 146 101 45 Italy 113 61 52 143 88 55 Un ' Netherlands 44 16 28 43 16 27 M n ~ North America 215 195 20 135 110 25 Of which: trJ --? Canada 214 195 18 133 108 25 a. Area data are rounded to the nearest $5 million. Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Communist China: Trade with Less Developed Countries of the Free World and with Hor.g Kong and Macao a/ 1966-67 Million US $ 1966 1967 Turnover Imports Exports Turnover Imports Exports Total world 4,295 2,045 2,245 4,180 2,075 2,110 Total Free World 3,160 1,525 1,630 3,140 1,610 1,530 Of which: Less developed countries 910 385 525 825 285 540 vD lJ N o Southeast Asia 325 80 245 345 85 260 li7 Of which: Malaysia and Singapore 190 47 142 228 43 185 Indonesia 59 9 50 N.A. N.A. N.A. Near East and South Asia 325 135 185 335 150 185 Ceylon 80 35 45 83 38 45 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Communist China: Trade with Less Developed Countries of the Free World and with Hong Kong and Macao a/ 1966-67 (Continued) Million US $ Turnover Imports Exports Turnover Imparts Exports Near East and South Asia (Continued) United Arab N Republic P ki 76 37 39 N.A. N A N A f~7 a stan 65 38 27 100 . . 60 . . 40 Latin America Of which : 120 120 b/ 10 10 b/ Argentina 114 114 C/ 7 7 c/ Africa 140 50 90 135 40 95 Hong Kong and Macao 400 5 400 340 b/ 340 Of which: Hong Kong d,' 380 3 377 321 1 320 a. b Area data are rounded to the nearest $5 miZZion . Less than . $2.5 million. C. Less than $500,000. d. Net of entrepot trade with third countries. Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Communist China: Trade with Communist Countries a/ 1966-67 Million US $ Turnover Imports Exports Turnover Imports Exports Total world 4,295 2,045 2,245 4,180 2;075 2,110 Total Communist countries 1,135 520 610 1,040 465 580 USSR 370 175 145 255 130 130 Far East 270 95 170 260 90 170 North Korea 150 75 75 140 70 70 C) North Vietnam 115 20 95 120 20 100 Eastern Europe 270 140 130 255 145 110 East Germany 68 3F 32 N.A. N.A. N.A. Rumania 66 34 32 N.A. N.A. N.A. Poland 52 30 23 45 30 15 Czechoslovakia 46 22 24 33 18 15 Hungary 32 16 16 N.A. N.A. N.A. Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6 Communist China: Trade with Communist Countries a/ 1966-67 (Continued) Million US $ 1966 1967 Turnover Imports Exports Turnover Imports Exports Total Communist countries (Continued) Cn Cuba 170 85 85 144 72 72 Albania 105 25 80 110 25 85 tz1 a. Data are based on the official stat-:stics of the Communist countries, where available. Data for the individual coun,.r,-es of Eastern Europe are rounded to the nearest $1 million; all other data are rounded to the nearest $5 million. Approved For Release 2009/10/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600010004-6