EUROPEAN BRIEF 196-75-4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 15, 2005
• Sequence Number: 98
• Publication Date: December 22, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608RO
Secret
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
1? SPAIN: MOVES BY THE GOVERNMENT TO LIBERLIUE THE POLITICAL
SYSTEM ARE FALLING SHORT OF LEFTIST EXPECTATIONS WHILE STIRRING UP
STRONG OPPOSITION FROMM THE FAR RIGHT.Y
LEFTIST DEMONSTRATIONS IN MADRID LAST THURSDAY ILLUSTRATE THE
GOVERNMENT'S DIFFICULTY IN MAKING A CONVINCING SHOW OF LIBERALIZATION.
A GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN REPORTEDLY HAD SAID EARLIER IN THE WEEK THAT
PEACEFUL MANIFESTATIONS OF OPPOSITION WOULD BE TOLERATED, AND THINS
BREAK WITH THE FRANCO TRADITION WAS CONFIRMED WHEN THE INTERIOR
MINISTRY GAVE PERMISSION FOR THE DEMONSTRATION.Y
WHEN SEVERAL HUNDRED LEFTISTS GATHERED IN FRONT OF THE MINISTRY
OF JUSTICE, HOWEVER, THEY WERE ATTACKED BY MEMBERS OF THE EXTREME
RIGHTIST GUERILLAS OF CHRIST THE KING. THE ATTACK TRIGGERED
INTERVENTION BY POLICE-I WHO BY MOST ACCOUNTS USED A MINIMUM OF FORCE
14 TO DISPERESE THE CROWD. AT LEAST TWO WOUNDED DEMONSTRATORS WERE
3 TAKEN TO THE HMOSPITAL?Y
2 THE DEMOBNSTRATION, LIKE MOST RECENT LEFTIST RALLIES, FOCUSED
ON DEMANDS FOR COMPLETE AMNESTY FOR ALL POLITICAL PRISONERS. Ma KING
%pnow.
UNIT:
EXT:
NELEAOINO OFFICER COONOINATINO OFFICERS AUTHENTICATING OFFICER
CLAEEI.ICATIOCi ApprovexkFlvnrd ei?alseV-.O OOM TO LAi d LMOTMOO8ROAfTr8W 10%9822 IMPDET
CL BY:
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
0 IF FILE! #
JUAN CARLOS' PARDON DECREE OF NOVEMBER 25 HAS BEEN WIDELY CRITICIZED
BY THE LEFT ON THE GROUNDS THAT ITS AMBIGUOUS WORDING WOULD ALLOW
THE GOVERNMENT TO FAVOR COMMON CRIMINALS WHILRE VIRTUALLY EXCLUDING
POLITICAL PRISONERS.Y
IN FACT, OF THE ESTIMATED 15,000 PRISONERS IN SPANISH JAILS,
ALMOST A THIRD HAVE ALREADY BEEN FREED BY THE KING2'S PARDON. ONLY
235 OF THOSE RELEASED ARE CONSIDERED POLITICAL PRISONERS, BUT
OBSERVERS IN MADRID ESTIMATE THIS MAY CONSTITUTE ALMOST HALF OF ALL
POLITICAL PRISONERS. LEFTIST CLAIM, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME 21000
POLITICAL PRISONERS, AND THEY WILL DOUBTLESS CONTINUE MTHEIR PROTESTS.Y
THE NEW MINISTER OF JUSTICE, ANTONIO GARIGUES, MAY INTERPRET
THE DECREE MORE LIBERALLY THAN HIS PREDECESSOR, PAVING THE WAY FOR
FURTHER RELEASES. THE GOVERNMENT HAS ALREADY TAKEN STEPS TO IMPROVE
ITS IMAGE BY RELEASING TWO OF SPAIN'S BEST KNOWN POLITICAL PRISONERS-
DISSIDENT PRIEST FRANCISCO GARCIA SALVE AND COMMUNIST LAL)R LEADER
3 MARCELINO CAMACHO. BOTH MEN WERE ORIGINALLY FREED BY C1185 THE KING'S
PARDON AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER REARRESTED FOR INCITING DEMONSTRATIONS.'
IN OTHER MOVES, THE GOVERNMENT HAS LIFTED PREVIOUS FINES ON
UNIT:
EXT:
RELEASING OfFICUR COORDINATING OFFICERS AUTNINTICATINO OPrIC^R
CLASSIFICATION ApprovechRooRefteseB4095gNM:iGtAdRiM6FTFWQBR(b0W00100L8-j IMPDET
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
PRIESTS FOR "OBJECTIONABLE" SERMONS, AND THE MINISTER OF EDUCATION
HAS ANNULLED SOME IISANCTIONS ON STUDENTS WHO VIOLATED ACADEMIN
DISCIPLINE. THE MILITARY ALSO HAS DROPPED CHARGES AGAINST THREE OF 711,11'
THE OFFICERS DETAINED LAST SUMMER ON CHARGES OF SEDITION.M
WHILE THE GOVERNMENT'S INITIAL MOVES TOWARD LIBERALIZATION HAW.
FAILED TO APPEASE THE LEFT, THEY HAVE STIRRED UP OPPOSITION IN THE
RIGHTIST-DOMINABTE.D PARLIAMENT. ON FRIDAY, RIGHT-WINGERS IN PARLIAMENT
CALLED ON PRIME MINISTER ARIAS TO APPEAR BEFORE THE LEGISLATURE TO
EXPALAIN THE GOVERNMENT'S "POLITICAL PROJECTS."Y
PARLIAMENTARY CRITICS ALSO SINGLED OUT THE NEW FOREIGN MINISTER,
JOSE MARIA DE AREILZA, WHO SAID ON WEDNESDAY THAT THE EXILED HEAD OF
THE SPANISH COMMUNIST PARTY, SANTIAGO CARRILLO, IS ENTITLED TO A
PASSPORT "LIKE ANY OTHER SPAINARD," AND SHOULD NOT BE DISCRIMINATED
AGAINST BECAUSE OF HIS IDEOLOGY. AREILZA WENT ON TO POINT OUT,
HOWEVER, THAT "PROBLEMS OF A JUDICIAL NATURE" MIGHT AWAIT CARRILLO
3 IN SPAIN SHOULD HE RETURN. 25X1
2. CEMA: CONVOCATION OF THE DELAYED CEMA SUMMIT CONTINUES
TO SLIP. THE SOVIETS ARE 25X1C
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
RILIASINO OPPIC.R COORDINATINO OPPICERS AUTN.NTICATINO OPPICIR
CLASSIFICATION Appro AFMPf Ma dg51[M2HEC11 RDP84lDOE QN001Q0W-2 IMPDET
CL BY:
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
PLANNING A JANUARY MEETING, BUT THINKS THAT THE
PROSPECTS FOR A SESSION THAT SOON ARE BLEAK.Y
ROMANIAN DISSENT ON ISSUES THE SOVIETS AP-
PARENTLY WANT TO RAISE AT THE MEETING HAS BEEN A
FACTOR IN THE DELAY, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MOSCOW
WOULD PERMIT BUCHAREST'S RECALCITRANCE ALONE TO POST-
PONE THE SUMMIT. HEAVY TRAVEL SCHEDULES, PREPARATIONS
FOR PARTY CONGRESSES IN POLAND AND THE USSR, AND THE
DIFFICULTIES OF COMPLETING PLAN COORDINATION PROTOCOLS
AND TRADE AGREEMENTS AMONG THE CEMA COUNTRIES HAVE
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE DELAYS.'
THE SOVIETS HAVE CIRCULATED A DOCUMENT ON CEMA
INTEGRATION--TO BE RELEASED AT THE SUMMIT--WHICH RE-
PORTEDLY HAS THE CONCURRENCE OF ALL THE EAST EUROPEANS
q EXCEPT THE ROMANIANS.
BUCH-
25X1 C
AREST IS DICKERING OVER THE DOCUMENT'S LANGUAGE ON:Y
2 FEMA-EC TIES: THE ROMANIANS SEEM AGREEABLE TO CEMA-
1 NEGOTIATIONS, BUT REPORTEDLY INSIST THAT THE DOCUMENT SPECIFICALLY
HATE:
UNIT:
EXT:
mu..i.wA?om ApProveik di1~138R~ R6lI As f @A~'16~910~8~2.
CL BY:
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
MENTION THE RIGHT OF INDIVIDUAL CEMA COUNTRIES TO MAINTAIN TIES WITH
THE EC. THE SOVIETS, WHO ARE RELUCTANT TO DILUTE THE MULTI-LATERAL
APPROACH, PROBABLY ARGUE THAT NO REFERENCE IS NECESSARY
BECAUSE THE SAFEGUARDS ARE WRITTEN INTO THE CEMA
CHARTER.Y
CEMA-SPECIALIZATION: THE ROMANIANS BELIEVE THAT
SOVIET-PROPOSED WORDING WOULD PRECLUDE EFFORTS BY
INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES TO BUILD OR EXPAND CERTAIN IN-
DISTRIES. BUCHAREST HAS LONG BEEN CONCERNED THAT
CEMA DECISIONS ON SPECIALIZATION THAT ARE BASED
SOLELY ON ECONOMIC CRITERIA AND TAKEN FROM A CEMA-
WIDE PERSPECTIVE WOULD FAVOR THE MORE DEVELOPED CEMA
COUNTRIES AND THERBY PERPETUATE ROMANIA'S LESS DE-
VELOPED STATUS. AS A COUNTER, THE ROMANIANS HAVE
4ARGUED--THIS YEAR AND IN THE PAST--THAT THEY AND
D OTHER LESS-DEVELOPED CEMA COUNTRIES DESERVE POLITI-
2 CALLY-MOTIVATED ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE TO EQUALIZE THE
I DEVELOPEMENT OF ALL CEMA MEMBERS. THE SOVIETS RE-
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
CL"50PICATION Approved*8l ~l %% 1209SMS/MP1 0A1T'1 IRfM1@F 3AT l1W 00213-2 IMPDET
CL BY:
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
IS INCONSISTENET WITH BUCHAREST'S VIEW THAT JOINTLY
DEVELOPED PROJECTS ON ROMANIAN SOIL ARE SUBJECT ONLY
TO ROMANIAN CONTROL.Y
THE ROMANIANS MAY BE DISSENTING ON OTHER ISSUES.
THE SOVIETS TO HAVE FULL CONTROL OF A JOINTLY DEVEL-
OPED PROJECT {AND ITS PRODUCTION} ON SOVIET TERRITORY,
EVEN AFTER MOSCOW HAS REPAID EAST EUROPEAN DEVELOPEMENT
ASSISTANCE. THIS, IN EFFECT, IS A DEMAND THAT MOS-
COW EARMARK GREATER QUANTITIES OF RAW MATERIALS FROM
SUCH JOINT PROJECTS FOR THE EAST EUROPEANS. WHILE
THIS DEMAND IS IN LINE WITH ROMANIAN EFFORTS TO GET
MORE OF CERTAIN RAW MATERIALS FROM THE SOVIETS, IT
THE ROMANIANS OBJECT TO ALLOWING
1 POWER TO DIRECT OTHER CEMA UNITS AND THAT IT BE PUT
PLANNING COOPERATION COMMITTEE BE GIVEN INCREASED
I THE SOVIETS AT ONE TIME WERE PROPOSING THAT CEMA'S
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
R.L.A.INO OPPN:.R COORDINATING OPPIC^R. AUT"8NTICATING OFFICER
CLAf.IPICATIOw4pproved_FkPr1ewera M06196iMACt fW 6 ~8080MFU09T-2 2 IMPDET
-FUSE TO CONSIDER ROMANIA A LESS-DEVELOPED COUNTRY.Y
25X1 C
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
ON A FULL-TIME OPERATING SCHEDULE. MOSCOW CLEARLY
HOPES THAT SUCH STEPS--WHICH ARE AIMED AT GREATER
EFFICIENCY AND INTEGRATION--WILL COUNTER ROMANIAN
DELAYING TACTICS WITHIN CEMA. BUCHAREST WILL RESIST
ANY INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES THAT HAVE A SUPRANATIONAL
RING AND IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO PERPETUATE A CREAKY,
INEFFICIENT CEMA STRUCTURE-Y
OTHER EAST EUROPEAN ATTITUDES ON THESE ISSUES
CLAIM THAT THE
POLES AND HUNGARIANS TACITLY SUPPORT THEM ON THE EC
ISSUE, APPARENTLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOT CRITICIZED
POLES AND HUNGARIANS ALSO SUPPORT ROMANIAN VIEWS ON
JOINT DEVELOPEMENT PROJECTS, WHILE THE HUNGARIANS
SHARE THEIR ATTITUDE ON SPECIALIZATION-Y
2 IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY OTHER EAST EUROPEAN
DISSENT WOULD FOCUS ON SPECIFIC ECONOMIC PROPOSALS
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
25X1 C
"43simcAnom ApprovedsFWFMRWIWB 22N:IMKOMOPSOMOBO!BR T00BD?010088-2 !MPDET
CL BY:
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
alp FILES
SUMMIT WOULD MAKE "PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT" DECISIONS
IN AGRICULTURAL AS WELL AS THE RAW MATERIAL SECTORS.
ALL THE EAST EUROPEANS, OF COURSE, ARE EAGER TO GET
FURTHER SOVIET ASSURANCES ON LONG-TERM DELIVERIES OF
RAW MATERIALS, BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THIS OVERALL
ISSUE CAN BE--OR IS INTENDED TO BE--RESOLVED BEFORE
A CEMA SUMMIT. ANY SOVIET EFFORT T%' SEEK EVEN PARTIAL
SOLUTIONS IN THESE OR OTHER SENSITIVE AREAS COULD
FURTHER DELAY A CEMA SUMMIT.I 25X1
3. CZECHOSLOVAKIA: SEVERAL RECENT ARTICLES IN THE CZECHOSLOVAK
PRESS THROW COLD WATER ON HOPES THAT THE COMING
L5TH PARTY CONGRESS MIGHT TAKE A SOFTER LINE TO-
WARD OSTRACIZED REFORMERS OF THE DUBCEK ERA.Y
THE ARTICLES ARE PART OF THE ACTIVITY COMMEM-
ORATING THE FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF "LESSONS," A CEN-
3 TRAL COMMITTEE DOCUMENT APPROVED IN DECEMBER L970.
2 INASMUCH AS THEY STRESS THE CONTI"!UING VALIDITY OF
LESSONS," THE PRESS COMMENTARIES SUGGEST THAT THE
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
RILEASINU OFFICER COOIIOINATINO OFFICIRI AUTNINTICATINO OFFICER
CLASSIFICATION Approve d 8PPM; I6r'f5F016TN:TdFid R"9ta$P I010098-2 IMPDET
CL BY:
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
CONGRESS WILL NOT MAKE A DRAMATIC GESTURE TOWARD
NATIONAL RECONCILIATION BY PROVIDING A WAY TO REHA-
BILITATE LARGE NUMBERS OF THE OSTRACIZED REFORMERS.Y
THE REGIME'S DEFENSE OF THE DOCUMENT IS NOT
SURPRISING. "LESSONS" WAS INTENDED TO SERVE AS BOTH
A POST MORTEM OF "WHAT WENT WRONG" IN L968 AND AN
APOLOGIA FOR THE RESTORATION OF RIGIDLY ORTHODOX
COMMUNIST RULE. MOREOVER, THE DOCUMENT RATIONALIZED
THE ROLES THAT SEVERAL OF THE PRESENT LEADERS PLAYED
DURING THE REFORM ERA. IT ALSO EXONERATED THE SYS-
TEM BY BLAMING THE NOVOTNY AND DUBCEK REGIMES FOR
MAKING THE PARTY VULNERABLE TO THE "RIGHTIST" ON-
SLAUGHT.Y
THE COMMENTARIES POINT OUT THAT POLITICAL SET-
TLEMENT OF THE CRISIS WAS POSSIBLE WITHOUT RESORT-
? 3 ING TO "SECTARIAN APPROACHES WHICH AGGRANDIZED THE
2 SIGNIFICANCE OF ADMINISTRATIVE COERCIVE APPROACHES."
1 THEY ALSO STRESS THE "DIFFERENTIATED" CASE-BY-CASE
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
"1L'AFl5FMd. For. Release 2005/0w Pt2" "cYA`-1qD 86T00608R00030001 C.Ms"-2"""? ?P""""
CLASSIFICATION REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE i3 PROHIBITED E 2 IMPDET
CL BY:
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
ARTICLES THUS SUGGEST THAT THE "MODERATES" SCORED A
VICTORY, SELECTIVE REHABILITATION FALLS CONSIDERABLY
APPROACH TO REHABILITATION THAT PARTY CHIEF AND
PRESIDENT HUSAK REPORTEDLY FAVORS. ALTHOUGH THE
SHORT OF IfHAT MANY EMIGRES HAD HOPED FOR.
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
//CAMBODIA-LAOS: CAMBODIA HAS FOR THE FIRST TIME SUPPORTED
LAOS AND VIETNAM IN THEIR DEMAND THAT THE THAI EXPEL THE REMAINING
US MILITARY PRESENCE FROM THAILAND.//
//THE JOINT COMMUNIQUE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE VISIT
TO PHNOM PENH BY LAO DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND FOREIGN MINISTER
PHOUN SIPASEUT STATED THAT BOTH COUNTRIES FACE A THREAT TO "PEACE
AND SECURITY" AS LONG AS US MILITARY BASES AND LAO AND CAMBODIAN
"TRAITORS" REMAIN IN THAILAND. THIS IS THE FIRST OFFICIAL LAO
VISIT TO CAMBODIA SINCE THE COMMUNIST TAKE-OVER THERE AND
RECIPROCATES THE VISIT OF CAMBODIAN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER LENG
SARY TO LAOS IN OCTOBER.//
//ENDORSEMENT OF HANOI'S POSITION ON THE US PRESENCE IN
THAILAND REFLECTS PHNOM PENH'S CONCERN THAT IT KEEP MORE OR LESS
IN LINE WITH ITS COMMUNIST NEIGHBORS IN INDOCHINA. THE CAMBODIANS,
HOWEVER, HAVE NOT JOINED HANOI AND VIENTIANE IN INSISTING THAT
BANGKOK RETURN ALL AIRCRAFT AND MILITARY EQUIPMENT TAKEN INTO
THAILAND DURING THE LAST STAGES OF THE WAR AS A PRECONDITION FOR
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
NORMALIZING RELATIONS. PHNOM PENH'S CONTINUED SILENCE ON THIS
ISSUE MAY REFLECT ITS INTEREST IN IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THAILAND
AND THE CAMBODIAN LEADERSHIP'S APPARENT DETERMINATION TO MAINTAIN A
BASICALLY INDEPENDENT STANCE IN INDOCHINA.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
S. CUBA= A MASSIVE RALLY IS TO BE HELD IN HAVANA ON DECEMBER
22, OSTENSIBLY TOGSIVE THE CUBAN PEOPLE THE OPPORTUNITY TO APPROVE
THE DECISIONS AND PROGRAMS EMANATING FROM THE CUBAN COMMUNIST PAVTYfS
FIRST CONGRESS. THE SIX-DAY CONGRESS% WHICH ENDS ON DECEMBER 221 WAS
BEEN HELb UNDER THE TIGHTEST SECURITY CUBA HAS EVER EXPERIENCED?Y
AT THE CONGRESS, DELEGATES UNANIMOUSLY APPROVED NEW PARTY
STATUTES, THE REORGANIZATION OF CUBA'S ADMINISTRATIVE DECISIONS, A
FIVE-YEAR ECONOMIC PLAN, AND A HEW CONSTITUTION THAT IS TO BE SUB-
MITTED TO A REFERENDUM ON FEBRUARY 15?Y
PARTY FIRST SECRETARY FIDEL CASTRO IS LIKELY TO USE THE MASS
GATHERING ON DECEMBER 22 TO PRESENT THE NEW PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE
TO THE PEOPLE% TO TELL THEM WORE ABOUT CUBA'S MILITARY INVOLVEMENT IN
ANGOLA, AND TO REPLY TO PRESIDENT FORD'S REMANKS ON DECEMBER 20
9FX1
2. BOLIVIA-CHILE' BOLIVIA'S PRESIDENT BAINZER ANNOUNCED ON
DECEMBER 21 THAT CHILE HAD RESPONDED FAVORABLY TO LA PAZ`S DEMAND FOR
AN OUTLET TO THE SEA- Y
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
25X1
ALTHOUGH RANZER WAS VAGUE ABOUT DETAILS, HE SAID THAT NEGOTIATIONS
WOULD BEGIN SOON TO IRON OUT SPECIFIC CONDITIONS--PARTICULARLY WHAT
BOLIVIAN TERRITORY WOULD BE GRANTED CHILE IN EXCHANGE POR A CORRIDOR
NORTH OP ARICA ALONG THE PERUVIAN BORDER?Y
?ANZER SAID THAT CHILE WAS CONSULTING PERU ON THE OFFER AS
REQUIRED BY A 1424 PROTOCOL. PERU'S ACCESSION WILL BE THE BIGGEST
HITCH BECAUSE LIMA MIGHT WELL IMPOSE CONDITIONS THAT WOULD BE UN-
ACCEPTABLE TO THE OTHER PARTIES?V
WHILE THE CHILEAN RESPONSE WILL BE GREETED WITH GREAT FANFARE
IN BOLIVIA. A SOLUTION IS PAR FROM ASSURED AND DIPLOMATIC BARGAINING
') r1)( I
3? //ARPENTINA: THE REBELLION Of DISSIDENT AIR FORCE OFFICERS
CALLING FOR THE OUSTER OF PRESIDENT MARIA ESTELA PERON IS APPARENTLY
ALL BUT OVER. PERON REMAINS IN OFFICE FOR THE MOMENT. BUT HER HOLD
IS TENUOUS AT AEST?//Y
//THE REBELLIOUS AIR FORCE OFFICERS FAILED IN THEIR REPEATED
ATTEMPTS TO ENLIST THE SUPPORT OF THE OTHER SERVICES AND SUPPORT
ELSEWHERE IN THE AIR FORCE WAS ONLY LUKEWARM. ONE ARMY GENERAL WHO
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
25X1
PRONOUNCED HIMSELF "IN REBELLION" HAS BEEN DISMISSED. AT NO TIME
WAS THE REBELS' POSITION VERY STRONG; THEY HAVE HAD VIRTUALLY NO
FIREPOWER ATTTHEIR DISPOSAL. AS NEGOTIATIONS PROCEEDED ON DECEMBER
23+ THERE WAS NO RENEWAL Of THE DECEMBER 20 BOMBING AND STRAFING Of
THE REBEL STRONGHOLD?V/Y
//PRESIDE'NT PERON. FACING THE MOST SERIORS CHALLENGE YET TO HER
AUTHORITY. REACTED IN HER USUAL FASHION. HER OFFICE ISSUED DEFIANT
STATEMENTS Of HER REFUSAL TO STEP DOWN; SHE REMAINED FOR THE MOST
PART. SECLUDED WITH A HANDFUL Of SUPPORTERS. ONCE AGAIN SHE WAS
25X1
REPORTED ILL.//M
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
1. LEBANON: SYRIAN ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF SHIHABI RETURNED HOME FROM
BEIRUT ON SATURDAY AFTER TWO DAYS OF TALKS WITH THE PRINCIPAL
LEBANESE AND PALESTINIAN POLITICAL LEADERS.Y
WHILE IN BEIRUT, SHIHABI PUBLICLY CREDITED RIGHT-WING
PHALANGES PARTY LEADER JUMAYYIL WITH BEING "PREPARED TO FIND
A SOLUTION TO ALL ASPECTS OF THE LEBANESE CRISIS." SHIHABI'S
VISIT MAY HAVE BEEN AIMED MAINLY AT PRESSING LEFTIST LEADER
JUMBLATT TO TEMPER HIS POLITICAL DEMANDS AND TO COOPERATE WITH
PRIME MINISTER KARAMI IN FORMING A NEW CABINET.Y
ON FRIDAY, JUMBLATT ANNOUNCED THAT LEBANON WAS "AT THE
BEGINNING6" OF A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT THAT COULD TAKE TWO OR
THREE MONTHS TO IMPLEMENT. AMBIGUOUS THOUGH IT WAS, THIS WAS
HIS MOST OPTIMISTIC STATEMENT IN SEVERAL WEEKS.! SO FAR, HE HAS
NOT DIRECTLY BLAMED LEBANESE CHRISTIANS FOR THE ASSASSINATION
ON SATURDAY OF TRIPOLI GOVERNOR QASSIM AL IMAD. AL IMAD, A CIVIL
SERVANT, GENERALLY SHARED JUMBLATTUS'S LEFTIST VIEWS AND, LIKE
JUMBLATT, WAS A DRUZE.Y
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
FOR THE PRESENT, DRUZE?, MUSLIM, AND CHRISTIAN LEADERS ARE
BLAMING THE SLAYING ON UNIDENTIFIED INDIVIDUALS WHO WANT TO PERPETUATE
THE FIGHTING. INTERIOR MINISTER SHAMUN CLAIMS TO HAVE EVIDENCE
.THAT RADICALS WHO IN THE PAST HAVE USED SNIPING ATTACKS
TO SPARK A RESUMPTION OF GENERAL HOSTILITIES ARE NOW
PREPARING A SERIES OF POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS?Y
THE SYRIANS MAY BE ATTEMPTING TO PERSUADE JUMBLATT TO
ENDORSE THE TERMS OF AN AGREEMENT THAT WAS REACHED DURING
JUMAYYIL'S VISIT TO DAMASCUS EARLY THIS MONTH. THAT PLAN
REPORTEDLY PROVIDES FOR:
--IMPLEMENTATION f B4e OF AN EFFECTIVE CEASE-FIRE;
--EXPANSION WOF THE CABINET TO INCLUDE REPRESENTATIVES
OF JUMAYYIL AND JUMBLATT;
--AGREEMENT TO MINOR, LARGELY COSMETIC POLITICAL
CHANGES WHILE PRESIDENT FRANJIYAH IS IN OFFICE;
--NEGOTIATION'; NN ON MORE FUNDAMENTAL REFORMS AFTER A
NEW PRESIDENT IS ELECTED NEXT AUGUSTS'
LEBANESE CHRISTIANS PROBABLY WOULD ACCEPT THESE PROPOSALS
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
ON THE THEORY THAT THEY WOULD BRING IMMEDIATE PEACE AND ALLOW
TIME TO QUALIFY OR BACK AWAY FROM THE PLEDGE TO NEGOTIATE
BUNDAMENTAL CHANGES IN THE COUNTRY'S SYSTEM OF G(GVERNMENT.?
JUMBLATT AND OTHER LEFTISTS ARE RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP
ANYTHING IN RETURN FOR MERE PROMISES OF REFORM. THEY, TOO,
HAVE SUFFERED HEAVY CASUALTIES IN THE FIGHTING THIS YEAR,
HOWEVER, AND MAY NOW BE CONVINCED THAT FRANJIYAH IS NOT LIKELY
TO RESIGN OR MAKE SIGNIFICANT CONCESSIONS BEFORE HIS TERM
EXPIRES.Y
ACCORDING TO SOME REPORTS, EVEN RADICAL LEFTIST IBRAHIM
QULAYLAT HAS MELLOWED
IQULAYLAT'S HEADQUARTERS ON SATURDAY
ISSUED A STATEMENT SAYING THAT THE LEBANESE CRISIS CAN BE
SOLVED ONLY "BY THE POLITICAL PROCESS."
25X1
25X1
2. OAU: THE ORGANIZATION OF AFRICAN UNITY ANNOUNCED ON FRIDAY
? THAT A MAJORITY OF ITS 46 MEMBER STATES HAVE AGREED TO HOLD AN
EMERGENCY MEETING ON ANGOLA FROM JANUARY 10 TO 12 IN ADDIS ABABA.Y
THE SUMMIT--THE OAU'S FIRST EXTRAORDINARY GATHERING OF CHIEFS
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
OF STATE SINCE THE INCEPTION OF THE ORGANIZATION 12 YEARS AGO--WILL
BE PRECEDED BY A 05 TWO-DAY MEETING OF FOREIGN MINISTERS. THE
MINISTERIAL SESSION WILL DEBATE VARIOUS APPROACHES FOR DEALING WITH
THE ANGOLA SITUATION AND SET THE AGPENDA FOR THE SUMMIT.Y
OAU MEMBERS ARE BADLY DIVIDED OVER THE ANGOLAN PROBLEM, AND THE
SUMMIT--WHICH COULD TURN OUT TO BE ACRIMONIOUS--MAY CONTRIBUTE LITTLE
TOWARD AN AFRICAN SOLUTION TO THE CONFLICT. MOST OAU STATES STILL
CLING TO AN OUTWARDLY NEUTRAL POSITION, BUT SOUTH A RRICA^S MUCH-
PUBLICIZED ROLE IN THE SUPOPORT OF THE NATIONAL UNION IS CAUSING
MANY GOVERNMENTS TO WAVER. SOUTH AFRICA'S INTERVENTION IS CONSIDHERED
t MORE IMMEDIAQTE THREAT TO THE INTEGRITY OF ANGOLA AND TO AFRICAN
INTERESTS THAN IS EITHER SOVIET OR CUBAN INVOLVEMENT.Y
AT 09 THE SUMMIT, SUPPORTERS OF THE POPULAR MOVEMMENT WILL TRY
TO GET THE CONFEREES TO ABANDON THE OAU'S PRESENT STANCE OF NEUTRALITY
AND RECOGNIZE THE MOVEMENT AS THE SOLE LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT OF
ANGOLA. THEY WILL ARGUE THAT SOUTH AFRICAN INTERVENTION ON BEHALF OF
THE POPULAR MOVEMENT^S RIVALS HAS MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO WORK TOWARD
THE OAU^S PREVIOUS GOAL OF A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY. THEY
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
 Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2
PROBABLY WILL BPUSH FOR A RESOLUTION THAT CONDEMNS SOUTH AFRICA AND
ASKS OAU MEMBERS TO AID THE POPULAR MOVEMENT.','
THE FEW AFRICAN GOVERNMENTS THAT PRICVATELY SUPPORT THE NATI,,:!AL
FRONT AND THE NATIONAL UNION--NONE HAS OFFICIALLY RECOGNIZED THEIR
REGIME--WANT TO KEEP THE OAU OFFICIALLY NEUTRAL. THESE COUNTRIES AND
NATIONAL UNION LEADER JONAS SAVIMBI HOPE IN THE SHORT TIME LEFT
BEFORE THE SUMMIT 8 OPENS TO PROMOTE A BACKLASH AGAINST SOVIET AND
CUBAN ASSISTANCE TO THE POPULAR MOVEMENT. SUPPORT WILL BE SOUGHT
AT THE SUMMIT FOR A BLANKET CONDEMNATION OF ALL OUTSIDE INVOLVEMENT
IN ANGOLA AND FOR A CEASE-FIRE AND A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY.
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/22 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010098-2