"THE U.S.-U.S.S.R. ARMS CONTROL NEGOTIATIONS" - ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001304040002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 2
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/02/21 : CIA-RDP88B00443RO01304040002-1
Approved For Release 2008/02/21: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01304040002-1
 Approved For Release 2008/02/21: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01304040002-1
28 February 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: "The U.S. - U.S.S.R. Arms Control Negotiations"
- Analysis and Recommendations
This memorandum was done by a very interesting fellow who I would
think knows little about arms control but is a student and practitioner
of negotiating strategy. I came across him in the early fall of 1980
when he was in a state of great disgust with the way the negotiations
for the Iranian hostages was being handled. He attended five meetings
of the Iranian negotiating group in the White House as a consultant.
This relationship developed out of some work he had been doing for the
FBI in advising them on hostage negotiations. He showed me his post-
meeting critique of these meetings which I thought were very much on
the mark. He also predicted with uncanny accuracy just what the
Iranians would do and when they would do it. His rationale was based
on perception that the Iranians would treat the hostages like carpets,
recognizing they would attain their highest value two weeks before the
election and that their value would then fade quickly and become virtually
worthless if Reagan won the election. With this general perception he
called a lot of specific shots on the nose.
I would like you to read this and see if you can obtain any
insights that would be of value to the Estimate.
William J. Casey
Approved For Release 2008/02/21 CIA-RDP88B00443RO01304040002-1