ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT: THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-480-2-3-3
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 8, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIA review
completed.
Arab-Taraeli Conflict; The Next Several DaYs
The immediate objective of the Israelis has
been to contain the attacking Arab forces While
mobilizing their reserves. At the time the Syrians
and the Egyptians launchedtheir offensives, the
Israelia were only a few hours into mobilization,
For the past two days Israel's regular ground
forces?about 1.00,000 men--have been absorbing the
Arab thrusts. Full mobilization of Israel's
reserves?bringing the force to some 300,000 men--
is scheduled to be completed by noon today. Counter-
attacks are Already reported to have begun.
The outlook for the: next few days is one of heavy
fightins on all fronts. With the full weight of their
forces bohind them, the Israelis should now be able
to turn the situation around on the Golan Heights
by nightfall Tuesday. Pressing the offensive against
the Syrians might take another_day or tioc By.
week-crid the Heights should be cleared of Syrian
forces. Against the Egyptian, the Israeli's are today
just beginning to press their :armor. They reportedly
are driving hard and by Tuesday or Wednesday. the
effect of their counterattack should be clear.
Several more days of heavy fighting might follow as the
Israelis Work to destroy ag much as possible of
Egypta Army.
Note: Tnia paper waa prepared jointiy bw CIA and DIA
NSA review completedl
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IUY,',.ttii/u,iititit
The Syrian Front
Current Situation
The Syrians threw the weight of three infantry
and two armored divisions against the Israeli force
in the occupied Golan Heights that was. equivalent
to about a .division. The Syrians probably committed '
about a thousand tanks against the fewer than 200
tanks the Israelis had in the. Golan Heights area
when fighting broke out, For this investment of Men
and machines, the Syrians have gained fewer than a
. dozen kilometers of ground at.the deepest point.
While the Syrian - failed* to drive the Israelis off
the Heights, the Israelis admit substantial losses in
their original committed forces in the area. In
addition, the Syrians have downed some 35 aircraft--
a rate of attritionthe Israelis cannot long sustain.
Despite the lack of an immediate Israeli rebuff
to the Syrian offensive and the "grim" atmosphere
in Israeli command headquarters, the IDF appears
to have taken the initiative. The Israelis kept
minimal forces on the Heights and planned to fight a
holding action if attacked. That holding action
appears to have been successful. Aircraft losses have,
however, been heavy--perhaps heavier than anticipate&
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?TOP-SECIET/SEUurd
Forecast
On the Golan Heights, the Israelis will probably
set their major counterattack in motion today. It
is possible that the Israelis have disengaged their
forces on the Heights both to give the air force
room to attack the Syrians, as they have said, and
to organize the counter offensive. The very heavy
Israeli air attacks on Syrian forces today may be
the softening up preceding the main effort. If
so, the next two or three days will see heavy
fighting as the Israelis (1) eliminate the Syrian
advances of the first three days and (2) seek to
inflict maximum materiel and Personnel losses on
the Syrians.
The outcome of the fighting on the Golan Heights
should become clear today, or, at the latest, by
Tuesday. Several days of Mopping up operations are,
likely aftar the Main battle. The most likely outcome
of the crucial period is a Syrian collapse and general
retreat across the cease fire lines. While the
Israelis may pursue the retreating Syrians to increase
.Arab losses,'Iarael is unlikely to want to increase
the occupation burden by taking significantly more
territory. Some minor adjustments in the cease fire
lines are likely as the Israelis will almost certainly
want to minimise the possibility of the present
situation repeating itself.
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TOP-SECRET/SENSITIVE
The Evotian Front
Cur=ent Situation
25X1
The Egyptian forces on the east side of the
canal may soon be isolated. Israeli air and ground
forces are attacking the Egyptian lodgement and -
trying to cut. the bridges 'Which form both the life
line and escape route for the Egyptians. Israeli
defense officials say the Egyptians are being pressed very
hard. Egyptian government radio Admits Israeli'
counterattacks have occurred but claims the attacks
were repulaed with heavy damage inflicted on the
Israelis.
If the Israeli claim to have crossed the canal
is true?and we are inclined to accept it--the
Israelis have several options open, to theM. Each
option could be pursued based on the Israelis'
assessment of the political costs and advantages,
military risksrand Assessment of their own capabilities.
HThree s14.101c options are outlined,
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OLU:11.1 01,..144A airs.
--Israeli armored forces on the west side of the
canal nay attempt to move rapidly along the canal's
edge, doing as much damage as they could. This raid?
reminiscent of the Israeli raid along the Egyptian
Red Sea coast in September 1969?could be over in
a day or so, cause considerable damage, and bring
about the collapse of the etyptian forces on the east
bank of the canal.
--At the next higher level of risk the Israelis
might try to penetrate more deeply into Egypt. If
they went 20 miles or so deep, the Israelis could
Capture or destroy many Of the SAM sites and equipment'
which have been in place since 1970. The Israelis '
could also destroy or disrupt a large part of Egypt's
army as well as bring about the Collapse of the Egyptian
force on the east bank. This is a risky Course
because the Israelis would be fighting their way
through an area where Egyptian troops are deployed
in fortified positions. Israeli casualties could be
numerous and the chances for a costly blunder
would be high. In addition, the Israelis would, for
the first time, be fighting inside Egypt proper.
-7Fiaa3.ly, most risky and least likely, the
Ieraelia could penetrate some 30 or more miles, encircle
'?
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'Ur. Ut./41C 1 /
the area and try to hold it for a few days. This would
enable the Israelis to capture large stocks of
Materiel including the bulk of the SAM system deployed
near the canal. If successful, such a tactic would
crush the Egyptians even more convincingly than in
1967.. The risk oi"heavy casualties and serious
mistakes, however, would be."great.
In any event, the Israelis have now clearly
gone over to the offensive. The Israelis will
likely defeat the Egyptian force on the fast bank
within two Or three days. The scattered commando
and helEborne troops the Egyptians sent into the
Sinai present no more than a minor security hazzard
and are being pursued even now. The Israelis probably
will have destroyed the Egyptian presence in the
Sinai bofore the week is out.
Other Reactions
In word and deed, the Soviets continue to
-stay well clear of the fighting. The bulk of the
Soviet Mediterranean squadron had been grouped back
from the combat zone near 'Crete. Evacuation flights .
continued into Aleppo-in northern Syria?during
the morning Of 8 October. There have been no signs
of unusual activity by Soviet forces in other areas of
the world.
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HIP SEVET/OSITIVE
Party chief Brezhnev, speaking at a luncheon for ,
visiting Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka today,
summed up the very limited nature of Soviet support
for the Arab cause. He placed the blame for the
fighting on Israel, but offered only "sympathy"
for the Arabs. He said "all countries and peoples
of the -area" Should have gilaranteed security and
pledged that the USSR is prepared to make its
contribution to lasting peace. A Soviet government
stateMent issued yea,terday made most of the same
points and, in separate conversations, Soviet officials
in Paris and Moscow have gone out of their way to
emphasize that the present Situation must not affect
the general improvement in US-Soviet relations.
We expect Moscow to render political support
to the Arabs at the UN and elsewhere, but even if
the military situation turns seriously against Arab
forces we doubt the Soviets will risk direct involvement.
The evidence of growing differences in Soviet-Arab
relations?much of which predates the present
fighting?and the priority Moscow attaches to its
relations with the US, suggest that the Soviets
will be,MOre'cautious' than they were in 1967
about mounting another major effort to re-equip
the Arabs.
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Other Arab countries have provided varying
degrees of support. Moroccan troops are engaged
in support of the Syrians on the .Golan front, and both
Algeria and Iraq claim to have provided air units to
Syria. Sudan is reported to have transferred addi-
tional ground force's to Egypt. Kuwait - had a token
unit in Elypt at the time hostilities began. The
Libyan Mirage squadron, which is probably manned by
Egyptians, :Was hit on the ground on Sunday.
President- Qadhafi.appears to be holding back so far,
stating Sunday night that although he was providing
immediate financial support, he would not say when,
Libya Would intervene. Jordan has redeployed some of
its forces as a precaution against an Israeli attack,
and claims to have shot down one Israeli aircraft
that violated its airspace. The fedayeeh in Lebanon
are making their usual exaggerated claims of downing
Israeli aircraft and attacking Israeli posts in the
Mount Hermon area.
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Estimated Losses*
Israel
Arab
???????
Aircraft
45
60
Tanks
100
500
Ships (primarily patrol
craft)
6
Troops
700
'
2,000
* Israeli aircraft loeeas are fairly firm and aro
based on Israeli admiesions. There are conflicting
claims, however, and the Arabs claim 110 ioraeli
planes downed. The Arab aircraft losees are based
on reported ehoot-downe and possible losses as a
result of ieraeli air strikes on Egyptian and Syrian
airfieldaj as derived from both Israeli claims and
Sgyptian admissione. The Syrians have made no
statements about the number of aircraft lost during
the war. It is not poseible to ascertain the types
of aircraft lost.
The tank figure? are estimates based on field
reporting. Personnel losees are extremely rough
eotimates of men killed and oapturad. ;Mita those
estimates of loseee have not been confirmed, they
are consistent with the fordee committed to battle
and the intensity of fighting on the various fronts.
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TOP SEI).itTi;Eic?AillE
ANNEX
The Soviet military Advisors and Their Role
Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, we
estimated the number of Soviet military advisors
and technicians to be as follows*
Egypt
200
Syria
1,400
Iraq
:$00
Most of the military ,personnel in Egypt were
involved in non operational tasks such as training
and'maintehance. rn Syria however', some Soviet
advisors were involved in operational aspects
of the air defense system. In addition, there were
economic and technical assistance people in al/
three countries--perhaps $00 In Egypt and a few
thousand in Syria and Iraq.
Beginning on 4 October, however, the Soviets
mounted a substantial evacuation effort that to date
has involved some 37 flights to Egypt and Syria.
Some Soviet naval ships apparently have also been used in
the evacuation. Our reporting indicates the
evacuation has been mainly for dependents, but that
,some civilian and military technicians are also involved.
Some East European technicians And their dependents
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TO? SECIIET/SUISiiilt:
may also have been evacuated. The total capacity
of the air evacuation alone would he about 3,500 people.
We cannot say how many of those spaces were filled
by military personnel. We assume some, but probably
only a fow.
We think that Moscow wants to steer clear of
military involvement in the''fighting. This is
indicated by the evacuation of Soviet personnel,
the lack of any significant Soviet naval movement .
toward the battle zope, the .lack of any Soviet
resupply effort and Soviet diplomatic and media
comment on the fighting. 'In line with this pplicyl.
Soviet advisors have probably been ordered to stay
cleat of the fighting.
Thi t: seems certainly true in Egypt where the
Sovieta, in any case, were not on the operational
level. 25X1
senior Egyptian government official..comMented
yesterday (7 October) that "not one" Soviet advisor
has had any role in the campaign :and that none
are In the Suez Canal battle zone.
In the case of Syria the evidence is less clear.
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TOP SECRET/MOTIVE
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Jul SEEET/SFEME
Luptian Bridgeheads on the East Bank of the Canal
By Late Sunday, the Egyptians had apparently
constructed some 11 bridges across the Suez Canal.
The Israelis claim to have destroyed nine of these
bridges..
25X1
The conflicting ,claims as to the number of
bridges constructed probably is due to the time the
various counts were made.. The-Egyptians evidently
crossed only light forces on Saturday to gain 4nd
hold the bridgeheads, On Sunday morning, the.
armored divisions and other heavy units had not yet
crossed. The bulk of the forces crossed, late Sunday.
The bridges evidently were not needed until the major
elements of the force were ready to cross.
The first two bridges were thrown across the
canal on Saturday the 6th?one south of the Great
Bitter Lake at El Kubri and one in the. north at
El Firdan. By Sunday morning, according to Israeli
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Eqvptian Forces on the Eatt Dank
By Sunday evening, the Egyptians apparently had
the elements of two armored divisions across the
canal probably near Itmailiyah in the central
sector of the canal. In addktion, one armored
brigade and one tank battalion were reported to
have crossed in this:north in the vicinity of Port
Said. In ,sum, the Israelis claim that the Egyptians
have 400 to 500Itanks across the canal--the bulk of
which crossed on Sunday. The number of troops may
be upwards of 20,000.
Egyptian infantry evidently crossed first on
Saturday to establish the bridgeheads and since then
have been consolidating their position on the
eastern bank. The Egyptians did not advance much
beyond the canal.
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. TOP SECIIET/6;a1..7,12iTliE ?
reports, the Egyptians had four bridges in operation
(one of which the rsraelis claim to have destroyed),
but the bridge building continued and subsequent
reports indicated that six bridges were in use later
in the day.
The Egyptians have apparently constructed most
of the bridges in the central sector of the canal
near Umailiyah,!.-four were reported in this area.
At least one bridge it in the north near El Qantara
and at least two are in the southern sector between
the Great?Bitter. Lake-tine-the Gulf of Suez.
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