ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CHERNOBYL' NUCLEAR ACCIDENT

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06795975
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: April 23, 2025
• Document Release Date: March 25, 2025
• Case Number: F-2016-02406
• Publication Date: May 2, 1986

Approved for Release: 2025/03/17 C06795975
�t, Directorate of
Intelligence
International
Economic & Energy
Weekly
2 May 1936
DI IEEW 86-018
2 May 1986
Copy 700
Approved for Release: 2025/03/17 C06795975
Approved for Release: 2025/03/17 C06795975
SoeK
International
Economic & Energy Weekly
2 May 1986
iii Synopsis .
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1 /Perspective�Brazil: Sarney Takes Control of the Economy
1.51rq 37
3 Brazil: The Impact of the Drought
7 Brazil's Minerals: New Source of Growth
11 International Financial Situation: Saudi Budget Woes
15 Thailand: Wrestling With Foreign Debt Management
19 v World Steel Market: The Competitive Situation Changes
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23 Briefs Energy
International Finance
V International Trade
Global and Regional Developments
National Developments
Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcome. They may be
directed to Directorate of Intelligence, telephone
et
DI IEEW 864)18
2 May 1986
Approved for Release: 2025/03/17 C06795975
Approved for Release: 2025/03/17 C06795975
ret
Pakistani Response
to Lower Oil Prices
Economic Impact
of the Chernobyl'
Nuclear Accident
ret
1 May 1986
few months, but shortages of consumer goods will probably increase. Tax
increases and layoffs of government workers are almost certain. Over the
longer term, Iran will be unable to maintain both its war effort and current
levels of food imports unless it can increase oil export revenues.
The government may try to raise crude oil imports to itake advantage of lower
world oil prices. pakistan planned earlier
this year to import roughly /5,000 b/d, up from 74,000 b/d in 1985, from
Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Abu Dhabi. The bulk of the projected purchases were
on a netback arrangement, which pegged the price of the crude oil to the price
of products refined from it. The US Embassy reported that, although Pakistan
increased its imports in January and February, it is not passing the savings on
to consumers, probably to reap windfall tax revenues and to forestall large
increases in consumption. Lack of storage capacity may inhibit large increases
in imports, but the lower prices should help ease the current account deficit
this year. The government probably also will attempt to renegotiate prices on
its oil agreements with Tehran and Abu Dhabi, or turn to the spot market to
meet increased needs.
Communist
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The extent of economic disruption depends on the extent of area affected and
the degree of contamination. On the basis of the likely path of radiation
dispersal, the potentially affected areas contain a sizable portion of Soviet
livestock herds, winter wheat, and sugar beets. The winter grain crop will not
be harvested until July. Consequently, unless contamination is severe, the
impact is likely to be limited. Cattle and hogs, for example, could use stored
feed for some weeks. Because Chernobyl' is located on Kiev's watershed, the
2.4 million people in Kiev, as well as those in other nearby urban centers,-could
be affected by both air- and water-borne radioactivity. The Soviets have
reported that the entire Chernobyl' plant (b)(1)
has been shut down. This will seriously affect the electricity supply to key (b)(3)
industries in the Ukraine�metallurgy, chemicals, and machine building.
Moscow could try to compensate by increasing power output at fossil-fuel
plants and selectively rationing electricity, but shortages for key consumers
remain likely. Electricity exports to Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Poland also
are likely to be reduced temporarily. The reactor damaged at Chernobyl' is not
the type the Soviets now export to Eastern Europe and are trying to sell outside
the Bloc, but Moscow's export plans will probably be affected by the
unfavorable publicity (b)(3;
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Approved for Release: 2025/03/17 C06795975