NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005301345
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00571
• Publication Date: July 3, 1990

APPROVED FOR
RELEASE DATE:
01 -Sep-2009
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CPAS NID 90-154JJ7
3 Ju(v 1990
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
 USSR: Party Congress Quiet on First Day
Liberia; Beginning of the End
: Armenians Fighting Each Other
 NMM
USSR: Party Congress Quiet on First Day
Gorbaeher's opening remarks to the CPSU's 28th congress yesterday
suggest he will try to defuse the controversy that dogged its preparations
and may make tactical adjustments to mollify traditionalists.
In a nationally televised speech, Gorbachev starkly and in
nonideological terms rejected claims perestroyka had caused the
disintegration of the economy and national cohesion. He insisted
the congress would not degenerate into a "summary trial" of the
leadership. Laying the lion's share of blame for current problems
on past leaders, he nonetheless admitted mistakes in economic and
nationalities policies had occurred during his tenure. As remedies,
sovereign states."
Gorbachev vehemently rejected criticism of his foreign policy course,
claiming "new thinking" had raised Soviet prestige and on some
issues had even brought the US and the USSR into "partnership."
Turning to internal party issues, he called on the congress to prohibit
formal factions in the party, endorsed the continued existence of
party cells in the armed forces, but pressed the party to adapt to
multipart condition Gorbachev's
applause.
Gorbachev waved aside a lone call for the leadership to resign. He
said that many delegates oppose the draft platform's blueprint to
create a presidium with chairman and deputy plus a first secretary
to preside over the secretariat, preferring the continued prominence
of the Politburo and General Secretary, aided by a new deputy.
Politburo members Yakovlev, Ryzhkov, and Medvedev struck
similarly noncontroversial themes in their statements to the congress
Comment: Gorbachev and other Politburo speakers appeared anxious
to play down differences and demonstrate their continued control of
events, while not antagonizing the many traditionalists at the congress.
Gorbachev hewed largely to the compromise formulations laid out in
the official draft platform and rules but invited revisions by the
congress. Resistance to plans to restructure the party's executive bodies
suggests the traditionalists want to maintain a system of collective
leadership decisionmaking as a means to limit the party leader's power.
The congress is likely to become more controversial today as the
delegates begin to debate the Politburo members' reports.
 0
 Militant' Situation, 2 July 1990
 LIBERIA: Beginning of the End
The rebels apparently have abandoned attempts to gain President Doe's
departure through pea ! are a6ancihe on Monrovia help
speed him on his way.
The rebels have attacked a number of towns on the outskirts of
Monrovia, including Camp Schieffelin, Paynesville, and Caldwell,
Rebel troops reportedly were
executing Krahn and Mandingo civilians in the Paynesville area.
The rebels now occupy the Brewerville military checkpoint on the
road leading to Sierra Leone. They also have blockaded the port of
Monrovia with armed trawlers, convincing the Liberian Coast Guard
Army Chief of Staff Dubar already has left Liberia
and Executive Mansion Guard Commander Julue and most
other high-ranking Krahn officers also have made plans to leave as
soon as possible. The capital remains without water or electricity, and
army soldiers continue their nocturnal
activities of looting, stealing, and random shooting.
Comment: Rebel leader Charles Taylor probably hopes that by
surrounding the capital he can convince Doe it is time to go. The dire
situation in Monrovia caused by the lack of electricity and water and
the imminent departure of Doe's most loyal officers almost certainly
have persuaded him to consider leaving.
Even if Doe resigns, bloodshed is likely in the capital. Taylor is likely
to have little control over his troops, which probably will continue to
engage in atrocities against Krahns and Mandingos as well as random
killing and looting. If the rebels do not leave the road to Sierra Leone
open to allow remaining Krahns to leave as the rebels enter
Monrovia, the magnitude of the massacre is likely to increase
substantially.
 o e
 op'I' M4-
involvement but, if there is major bloodshed, may be called in to
Conflict between ethnic Albanians and Serbs appears imminent.
Albanian legislators in Kosovo yesterday declared the province
independent of Serbia and said they would seek republic status within
Yugoslavia. Serbian delegates were not present at the rump assembly
session, which the legislators convened outside the assembly building
after they were locked out. Meanwhile, a republicwide referendum on
a new Serbian constitution that eliminates autonomy for Serb'
provinces-Kosovo and Vojvodina-is on its way to passage.
Comment: Serbia probably will proclaim the declaration illegal,
dissolve the Kosovo assembly, arrest some of the Albanian delegates,
and deploy additional security forces. Kosovo's leaders are likely to
try to internationalize the issue by appealing to the UN, the EC, the
CSCE, and foreign capitals. Although Albanian leaders are counseling
nonviolence, it will be difficult to restrain Albanian youths in the
likely event of Serbian repression. Prime Minister Markovic and the
federal government will try to discourage a Serbian crackdown but
are impotent to stop it. The federal Army will attempt to avoid
 o'f 9refet_
 USSR: Armenians Fighting Each Other
Armenia's nationalistic factions are increasingly fighting over strategy
and tactics with respect to Moscow, autonomy, and the conflict with
Azerbaijan. On Saturday one person died when armed rival factions
clashed. Security forces are on a heightened state of alert. Members of
the Azeri People's Front are demanding fortifications on the border
emergency.
Comment: A lack of leadership from either Moscow or republic-level
officials has allowed the republic to slide toward Lebanon-style
anarchy. Some republic officials may be linked to militia factions, but
no group is currently strong enough to prevail. Continued warfare
between these groups, coupled with such actions as kidnapping, might
compel Moscow to impose a state of emergency in Yerevan, the
leadership.
 ~T81~-Seexez
 -taaseevx
 Spurred by a sharp increase in violent crime, Beijing has mounted
a nationwide crackdown to gain standing with the people and to
impress potential malcontents. The official press claims crime in
Shanghai has almost doubled since last year, and officials elsewhere
report increased sabotage and bombings as well. At least five cities
have staged public executions since the Minister of Public Security
announced the campaign last month. In a similar crackdown ordered
by Deng Xiaopingin 1983, authorities reportedly executed as many
as 1,000 criminals
Comment: Chinese leaders have been alarmed about antipathy to the
regime since the Tiananmen brutality last year and hope to play to
widespread concern about rising crime rates. The public has greeted
recent government campaigns-including a drive against official
corruption-with cynicism. Public executions and harsh sentences
probably will also intimidate urban workers and migrant laborers
from the countryside, whom the regime fears as sources of instability.
 70-0-8ftret-
 ftlawgiw
WWWWORWR
o
-- Slovenian legislature yesterday adopted declaration of sovereignty
for republic within "confederal" Yugoslavia ... Slovenian laws to
supersede federal, independent military to be set up ... Belgrade
will denounce move, probably not intervene for now
-French Communists, Socialists on Saturday pushed through law
outlawing racist, anti-Semitic acts ... imposes fines, excludes from
political office ... aimed at extreme-right leader Le Pen, move
likely to hit less discreet followers.
- Seven Mongolian Politburo members reportedly expelled from
Communist party ... criticized as symbols of Stalinist past .. ,
regime pushing to improve image before 29 July mul
election, which may end party's monopoly on power .~lna~r
 -1'nu.acre,-
3 July 1990
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 -rprs~
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