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The President's Daily Brief
15 August 1968
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THE PRESIDENT'S
DAILY BRIEF
15 AUGUST 1968
1. Poland
2. Soviet Union
The Soviets have moved additional
divisions into Poland since the end of
July,
the moves are a Sign that Moscow
remains deeply uneasy About develop-
ments in Czechoslovakia.
another reason for the
is to back up Gomulka, who has
involved in a protracted power
move
been
struggle.
3. Dominican Republic There could be trouble tomorrow
when one of Balaguer's men replaces
the leftist mayor of Santo Domingo.
Some of the Communists have called for
an "armed uprising"; the extreme right
would like to see disorder, which it
could then blame on the left. Nothing
very serious is likely
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4. Mexico
ajri1. 0-6 67
5. Panama
O. Cuba
Diaz Ordaz has kept carefully out
of the student situation. He may be
reserving the weight of his personal
involvement for critical developments.
The mayor, who figures prominently
in speculation on a-successor to Diaz
Ordaz, has been the target of student
hostility. He also has been the offi-
cial spokesman on the crisis. With that
background, he could end up as the of
scapegoat.
When he takes office, Arias told
US Embassy officers, he will fire Na-
tional Guard Commandant Vallarino. All
top Guard officers routinely submit
their resignations to a new president
and Arias, who feels Vallarino dabbled
too much in the electoral process, in-
tends to take up his option. Vallarino,
however, has considerable power in his
own right and could turn the tables on
Arias.
As estimated, sugar production
this year was far below what Castro had
hoped for. The goal had been 7.5 mil-
lion tons. Between 5.1 and 5.2 million
tons were harvested. This was a million
tons below last year's 6.1 to 6.2 mil-
lion ton crop, and Castro has fired the
minister in charge.
Besides hurting Cuba's ability to
earn foreign exchange, the shortage this
year will make it even harder to reach
the objectives set for 1970 which are
based on yearly increases in production.
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t.))(1
7. Communist China - The Chinese, their harvest hurt
Australia by bad weather and the Cultural Revo-
lution, have asked for immediate nego-
tiations on Australian wheat. The
Chinese probably want to insure there
will be no break in deliveries this
December when the present one-million-
ton contract with Australia expires,
Chinese grain imports for 1968 will
run about 3.6 million tons, .6 million
down from 1967.
8. Burma
. Congo
Communist guerrillas, using Chi-
nese sanctuary and some Chinese equip-
ment, are becoming more active in the
rugged border area of northeastern
Burma. The guerrillas, a mixture of
Burmese and tribal insurgents, have
destroyed bridges and inflicted heavy
casualties in several recent encoun-
ters with Burmese troops. The Burmese
Army is not too effective in this ter-
rain and could be hard pressed in a
sustained guerrilla campaign.
Mobutu's pursuit of grandeur is
carrying him to new follies that make
some of his other Alice-in-Wonderland
performances seem almost rational by
comparison. He is at the moment:
--Planning to build three replicas
of St. Peter's Cathedral in the Congo;
--Buying a British jet airliner
for his personal use at a cost of about
$5 million;
--Discussing the conversion of his
residence into an imitation Versailles;
--Acquiring an expensive villa in
Switzerland.
Ambassador McBride feels Mobutu's
personal expenditures are the most se-
rious problem now facing the Congo.
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Top Secret
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Top Secret
FOR THE PRESIDENT'S EYES ONLY
.) Special Daily Report on North Vietnam
.) North Vietnamese Reflections of U S
Political Attitudes
Top Secret
16
15 August 1968
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Special Daily Report on North Vietnam
for the President's Eyes Only
15 August 1968
I. NOTES ON THE SITUATION
Alliance Holds a Conference: The Vietnam Alliance
of National, Democratic, and Peace Forces held its
second conference on 30 and 31 July and adopted a po-
litical program, according to 0. Liberation Radio broad-
cast on 14:August. Despite a claim that the Alliance
had an "urgent reason" for publicizing the program,
the broadcast gave few details on the program beyond
the tantalizing statement that it is intended to
serve as "a basis for bringing together broader and
larger numbers of patriotic forces and individuals
who are eagerly seeking a way out in the South Vietnam
situation at present, as well as for the lasting fu-
ture."
This sounds as though the Communists still hope
to use the Alliance .t0 muster the wldest possible
South Vietnamese support for an early settlement.
Several additional persons were surfaced as members
of the Alliance, but these appear to be of even lesser
note and influence than known Alliance members.
* * *
Food Shortages: The deteriorating food situation
is causing Hanoi continued anxiety, but the Soviet
Union and China appear willing to go on Underwriting
North Vietnamese food supplies. Nhan Dan on 2 August
called for a strengthening of controls over food dis-
tribution in order to overcome "present shortcomings"
and for a new distribution of manpower in order to
"solve the food problem in a more steady manner." The
article is one of several items during the past month
pointing out a need for solving distribution and pro-
duction problems,
The "shortcomings" in distribution probably have
to do with the substitutes being used to adulterate
the "rice" ration. The adulterants are largely im-
ported wheat flour, imported and domestic corn, and
domestic manioc and sweet potatoes These substitutes
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made up about 40 percent of the ration in early 1968,
and the proportion had increased to about 50 percent
by mid-year
Since the substitues are less palatable to
the North Vietnamese than rice, the fair apportionment
of them among individuals becomes an important matter
of policy.
Allusions to manpower distribution problems in
agriculture are of long standing.- The loss of rural
workers to the war effort and the overburdening of
those remaining with war-related tasks have apparently
lowered the quality of management in farm work. The
burdens lifted by the cessation of bombings in northern
North Vietnam--where the important farm lands are lo-
cated--have been balanced by backlogged chores needing
attention and by an overlapping of spring harvesting
and planting work caused by bad spring weather. The
fifth-month rice crop this year not only was below
average but was harvested a month late, delaying the .
planting of the more important tenth-month crop and en-
dangering its output.
The shortfalls in domestic food production have
been partially covered by increasing imports of food
from Communist countries. These imports amounted to
about 440,000 tons during the first seven months of
1968, compared to about 460,000 tons for all of 1967
and only 80,000 tons for all of 1966.
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No Trade Fair in Hanoi: North Vietnam has ap-
parently shelved any plans to hold a trade fair in
Hanoi until the end of the war.
Hanoi will step up its participation in foreign trade
fairs while postponing plans for its own for the du-
ration.(
* * *
II. NORTH VIETNAMESE REFLECTIONS OF US POLITICAL
ATTITUDES ON THE WAR
There is nothing of significance to report today.
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Top Secret
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