THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 21 OCTOBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466877
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 21, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/13 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000300030002-1
The President's Daily Brief
/
October 21, 1976
2
Top Sec e
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Exempt from general
declassification scheduk of E 0 11652
exemption category 58(1
decks:tilled only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 21, 1976
Table of Contents
World Grain: Our revised estimate of 1976-19/7 world grain pro-
duction, excluding rice, is 8 percent above the 1975-1976
figure and 3 percent above the record figure for 1973-1974.
(Page 1)
Lebanon: The various groups involved in the Lebanese conflict
are not likely to honor the cease-fire scheduled to go into
effect this morning. (Page 1)
Notes: Egypt-Libya; USSR; USSR-China; Japan; China (Pages 3, 4,
and 5)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
WORLD GRAIN: Our re-
vised estimate of 1976-
1977 world grain pro-
duction, excluding
rice, is 1,062 million
tons, 8 percent above
the 1975-1976 figure
and 3 percent above
the record figure for
1973-1974.
LEBANON: The various
groups involved in the
Lebanese conflict are
not likely to honor
the cease-fire sched-
uled to go into effect
this morning.
These forecasts are based largely
on the improved outlook for this
year's grain market in the North-
ern Hemisphere, particularly in
the USSR.
World grain stocks for 1976-1977
are likely to increase by 15 to
20 million tons. Wheat, primarily
US and Canadian, will account for
most of the increase.
The USSR boasts the largest in-
crease of any major producer, 24
million tons more than last year's
poor harvest. Although the wheat
crop in both Western and Eastern
Europe suffered from drought con-
ditions, it still exceeds last
year's low level.
We expect global wheat import de-
mand for 1976-1977 to fall 6 mil-
lion tons below last year's level
and to be the smallest since 1971-
1972. The cut in Soviet imports
will more than offset larger Euro-
pean import requirements.
We estimate that demand for US ex-
ports of wheat for 1976-1977 will
total 28.5 million tons, 3 million
tons below last year's figure.
Our estimate of the demand for US
exports of corn for 1976-1977 is
39.6 million tons compared with
the record 43.2 million tons
shipped during 1975-1976.
Once the Palestinians, leftists,
and Christians learn that the ex-
panded peace-keeping force agreed
to at the mini-summit will include
25,000 Syrian troops already in
Lebanon, they are not likely to
cooperate with any withdrawal
timetable.
1
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
BEIRU
4.0
E
410
ul.fyu
1111
Heigh
Go/a
#
DAMASCUS
A
MILES 20
0 KILOMETERS 20
620580 10-76
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The Christians yester-
day beat back Pales-
tinian and leftist ef-
forts to retake the
village of Marj Uyun.
Christian spokesmen have complained
about the 90-day lag between the
end of the withdrawals and the
time the Cairo accords, which would
restrict the Palestinians to their
camps, go into effect. Many Chris-
tian leaders believe that even
full implementation of the ac-
cords--which are ambiguous, and
partially verbal--would be insuf-
ficient.
Palestine Liberation Organization
chief Yasir Arafat and his left-
ist allies seem to have lost at
the mini-summit. Arafat presum-
ably believed that at least Pres-
ident Sadat would defend the in-
terests of the Palestinians and
that President Asad would come un-
der considerable pressure to end
his military operations. Sadat,
by accepting an overwhelming Syr-
ian predominance in the peace-
keeping force, clearly agreed to
a strong Syrian role in Lebanon
for the foreseeable future.
The Israelis seem to have been
supporting the Christians in Marj
Uyun and Ayshiyah with artillery.
The Palestinians believe that the
village of Yarun was occupied yes-
terday by Israeli troops. We can-
not confirm that Israeli forces
crossed the border. They had been
limiting their support of the
Christians to artillery fire, al-
though small Israeli patrols have
been known to enter Lebanon in
the past.
2
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
a large
paratroop exercise sched-
uled to be held in west-
ern Egypt near the Lib-
yan border last week was
postponed and possibly
canceled.
A Soviet Mayak-class
intelligence collection
ship entered the Gulf
of Mexico on Tuesday.
NOTES
25X1
We do not know why the exercise
was not held. Bad weather over
the past week forced the Egyptians
to delay--but apparently not can-
cel--other scheduled exercises.
It may be that there is a rela-
tionship between the postponement--
if not cancellation--and Cairo's
recently reported efforts to bring
about at least a tactical recon-
ciliation with Tripoli.
On the Libyan side, satellite pho-
tography of late September and
early October shows that Tripoli
continues to make modest improve-
ments in its forces along the east-
ern border with Egypt.
The ship may be en route to moni-
tor a US military exercise now un-
derway in northwestern Florida.
As of last night, however, it was
about 300 miles off the coast of
Clearwater, Florida.
This is only the third time since
1969 that a Soviet intelligence
ship has been in the Gulf of Mex-
ico. On the previous two occa-
sions--in 1969 and in 1971--an in-
telligence ship supported Soviet
warships that had moved into the
area.
3
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Iran
Matoehlun Shar
(Test Site) a Novaya
Zemlya
U.S.S.R.
Afghanistan
620578 10-7 IA
Lop Nor/Singer 1:1
(Fest Site)
Japan
CHINA 25X1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The USSR and China re-
cently conducted under-
ground nuclear tests.
Japanese Prime Minister
Miki 'S opponents in the
ruling Liberal Demo-
cratic Party are prepar-
ing another attempt to
replace him with Deputy
Prime Minister Fukuda
as party president at
the party convention
on October 31.
* * *
25X1
The Soviets apparently intend to
continue using the Matochkin Shar
Test Area. They are constructing
another tunnel, but it probably
will not be ready for use until
next year.
The Chinese test on October 171
occurre at a new underground
test area at Lop Nor/Singer, about
15 nautical miles north of the
area used for China's two previous
undergound tests. Preparations
for the test were noted in late
July.
* * *
Leaders of the anti-Miki camp,
including Finance Minister Ohira,
are likely to endorse publicly
Fukuda's candidacy today. With
the end of a relatively successful
Diet session now in sight and
Miki's insistence upon serving a
full three-year term, the Prime
Minister's rivals are concerned
that Miki will strengthen his hold
on the office by presiding over
the Lower House election in Decem-
ber.
By backing Fukuda for party presi-
dent now, they hope to deny Miki
credit for the party's probable
4
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Demonstrations have be-
gun in China, apparently
to celebrate the appoint-
ment of Hua Kuo-feng as
chairman of the Central
Committee of the Chinese
Communist Party.
electoral success and to set the
stage for his removal as prime
minister soon after the election.
Fukuda generally can count on the
support of about two thirds of his
party but is by no means assured
of success at the convention.
There is some sentiment--among
both Miki's supporters and oppo-
nents--that the leadership ques-
tion should be resolved after,
rather than before, the election.
Indeed, unless Fukuda moves into
open opposition by resigning from
the cabinet before the convention,
the convention probably will not
even address the leadership ques-
tion.
* * *
Word spread informally yesterday
in Peking that the official an-
nouncement of Hua's promotion and
the purge of the radicals was im-
minent. This morning, the US Liai-
son Office reported that organized
groups were marching exuberantly
through the capital's streets to a
mass rally in Tienamen Square.
The marchers chanted support for
Hua and denunciation of the radicals.
5
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