CABLE TO BORG/ADAMS/RODMAN FOR ROBERT OAKLEY FROM THE SITUATION ROOM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 3, 2011
• Sequence Number: 59
• Publication Date: March 7, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/01/03: LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0
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DE WTE #1 051 M(Sf 'FHPS
0 077? 1307 MAR 70.5
ISM THE SITtJATIO?V itfOM//TfHAK 24//
.TO 8I1i L;/AoAMS/ROfMAN FIR- Rn8F'RT OAKLF'Y
5. F C R F T VIA R6070 WH5@327
TOMAK P4
TU RfBFRT OAKLFY WITH KISSINrER
PARTY FN ROUTE TM ASWAN
*******5 COPY
1, THE FOLLOWING 51TUAT Ord REPO O1 ETHIOP
IS TO BE PASSED To NSC STAFF OFFTCFi ROBFi T OAKL.EY
WITH SFCPETARY'S ISSINGFR'S PARTY,
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
DOS Review
Completed.
P? TLXT2 THE FIGHTING IN ERITREA. CUNTTNUF3 INCONtLUSTVFLY1
RUTH THE f f7VFRNMFNT ANTI TH'. RE8ELS ARE MAINTAINTN(; THEIR
IJNCO +P OMl5IWG POLITICAL. POSITTONS. THE tULINfti
MILITARY COUNCIL'S ABILITY TO DIRECT Gf)VFRNMEMT
OPERATTONS IN ERITREA ANTI AT THE SAMF TIME COPP WITH
THE WAMY OTHER MANIEFSTATIr7NS OF POLITICAL OT$SIOFNCf
TH00tJGHOUT ETHIOPIA IS BFCOMING INCNFASIN LY DOUBTFUL.*
WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A COUP BY MILITARY OFETCERS
I,N AD T5 Af4Af3A??THF MUST S l~'f 10 US PITFNTIAL THRFAT TO
THE COu$CIL--APF'EAt S TO HAVE LFS:SENEf FOP THE' TIME LIFING,
OPPOSITION FRO" TRI IALo*BA3EO CIVILIANS, SOME OF WHOM
PRESUMABLY HAVE AL.LIFS IN ?THF. MILITARY, IS INCf?EASIN!~.
3, THE FRTTREAN CONFLICT IS 8FGTNNi.m6. TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ?SETTLI INTO THE PATTERN OF nRAWN..fUT AND TNCONCLUSTVL
STRUtGGL.,F. THAT M?ARKPQ E.ARL.IER REBEL CAMPAIGNS? SKIRMISHING,
WITH PF"RTrJOS. flP Mf)RF" INTFNSE FIGHTING, 3FTWEFN GOVERNMENT
FORCES ANU t tWERRILLAS ARF LIKELY TO rONTINUE POW SOME TIME,
HOWEVER. MOST OF THE P15HTING HAS Uf.CUJRREO ARfUND
ASMARA ANO ALONG THE ROADS FROM ASMARA TO KEREt4 AND THE
R'ED?SEA PORT OF HA$SAWA, tZROUNL) RFSLIPPLY OF Gf)VERNMENT
F`DRCIxS TN F ITREA CONTINUES TO BF HAMPFREU BY MAINTENANCE
,PROELE:MS AND RFtFL, TNTEROICTION OF ltDADS NO CRITICAL
LOGIMTTCA1.. PROBLEMS ARF APPARENT, fSQT Ft EL. R 'SFRVF?5 ARE LOW
AND' INOIVIPPUAL UNITS HA"VF REPOPTED AMMUNITION SHORTAGES?
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * *WHSR COMMENT *' *. * * * * * * * ? *
SCC7WCROFT, MCFARLAME, R
OMAN,
FCFL.F
P&HIM11731 PAGE 01 TOitt@!4S/2R1rr,.67 OT161 172. 3A'Z MAR 75
S E C R E T, * w***.S ropy
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/01/03: LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/01/03: LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0
** +** S F C
*.*t*,*.S CUPY
4, ARAB COUNTRIES ARE CONTINUING TO PROVIOF ENOUGH
MILITARY ANU OTHF'R SUPPORT TO FNAHLE THE REBELS TO
KEEP THEIR OPERATIONS GOTNG,, AT THIS POINT MOST ARAB
GOV :F JME.NTS AWE NOT SOLIDLY BACKTNf THE REBEL DEMAND
FOR COMPLETE. INS, PF Nn CF, HLJT THE ETHIOPIAN QOVFRNPjFNT'3
EVTUENT INTENTION TO SEEK A MILITARY SOLUTION IS PUSHING
THEM IN THAT DIKECTION. ONLY SYRIA ANn KUWAIT ARE,
VOCIF"FROl,(SL.Y CALLING raft ERITRFAN TNOEPENDENCE' ARMS
ARE RRETNO SUPPLLED BY LIBYA AND PR03A6LY SYRIA AND
IRAQ AS WELL.. PEKSISTENT REPORTS THAT PALESTINIAN
EXPERTS AR F WEL''INg TP4P REBELS INSIDE ERITREA REMATrr
UNCONFIRMED.
5SAUDI ARABIA, LTSYA, CvYPT, AND SUDAN STILL PPE''F
A NE:t`aTIATEO SETTLEMENT, PROBABLY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK
OF A FE'DERATED STATUS FOR FRITREA, THESE AND MT'HER
ARAB GOVERNMENTS TFNn TO BLAME THE MILITARY,COUJNCIL,'S
INTRANSICENCF MOc E THAN THE RE'BELS' INStSTENf"E ON
INDEPENUENC FOR THE CURRENT BLEAK PROSPECTS FOR A
COMPROMISE SGLUJTTONM
60 THE COUNCIL HAS RECENTLY ADnPTr n A MORE PAVORAFBL,E
ATTITUDE TOWARD SUDANESE PRESIDENT ?NUMAYRI P S PEACE
PROPOSAL, AN AUTKFlATTATIVE SCJI..RCE HAS TOLD THE EMBASSY
TF1A7 A GOVERNMENT DELECATTON WILL LEAVE "SOON" FIR
DISCOSSIONS IN KHARTDUM; NO DATES HAVE 6FEN MENTIONED,
THE ETHIOPIANS APPARF4TLY ARE WILLING TO TALKWTTH
REBEL, REPRESENTATIVES AS WELL AS THE SUDANESE, THE
PROSPEDTS FOR PRn UCTIVE. PFf;OTTATIONS 'NONETHELESS R MIN
SLIM. THE ETHIOPIANS PROBABLY ENVISAGE ONLOPRELMINAkY
DISCUSSION, AND MAY BE PLANNINr? THE VSIT MAINLY AS
A DELAYING TACTIC, XTHEY RELIEVE NUMYRI I ALREADY
ALLO.WINP REBEL. APt19 INTO ERITREA FROM SUDAN, AND HAVE
SERIOUS RESERVATIONS ABOUT HIS ABILITY TO ACT AS A
NEUTRAL MEDIATOR, NLJMAYPT HAS CALLED FOR TALKS WITHOUT
PFRECONDITIDNS, Bt.FT THEE ETHIOPIANS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THAT OTSrUSSIONS MU3'Tt3E HFL1' WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF
NATIONAL UNITY. THE REBELS, FOR THEIR PART, ARE HOLDING
TO THEIR OFMANn THAT THE GOVERNMENT RECOGNIZE ERTTRf A'S
RIGHT TO TNDF.PFN.DEMCF BEFORE NEGOTIATIONS BEGIN,
70 THE COUN1'IL HAS BEEN INITIALLY SUCCESSFUL IN
RALLYING POPULAR SUPPORT BEHIND THE WAR EFFORT. IT
,HAS SEEN HELPED BY THE OFFICIAL MLDIA-S INCREASED
DENUNCIATION OF ARAB. SUPPORT FOR THE ERITREANST SYRIA
HAS BEEN SINGLED DFIT FOR PARTICULARLY BITTER ATTACKS.
THESE CONDEMNATIONS ARE EVOKING THE DESIRED RESPONSE
ps"Imi l3o PAGE 02
*~~r*~r?A S F
TOPtS46/20t2oZ
UTG2072 l (Z MAR 75
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/01/03 : LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/01/03: LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0
a r r r r ~ - w k S F C W F T ~~~-~~-5 f'f1PY
FROM F'THIOPIAN$# WHO HAVE A TRADITIONAL FEAR OF "ARAB
ENCIRCLEMENT." POTENTIAL LFAUERS OF A MILITARY COUP
APPARENTLY HAVE DECIDED TO HOLC) OFF, PROBABLY SECAUSF
THEY FEAR ANY MOVE NOW W04JLD INVITE ACCLJSATIfMS THAT THEY
WERE SAIC1TAGIt4C THE MILITARY EFFnRT AND PLAYTNn INTO
THE HANDS OF FnRFICM ENEMTFS?
80 TN THE LONG RUN, THE ERITREAN CONFLICT MAY STRE'NGT'HEN
'
'
THE HAPW UF
MILITARY uTSSIT-ENTS, THF YOlt*IG OFFICERS ANO
ENLTKTFu MEN ON THE. CULJNC'IL HAVE HAO T+7 RELY ON THE
FEW REMAINING SENIOR' OFFICERS TN THE MTLTTARY TO RFSTDRE
EFFECTIVE COMMAND AND CONTROL OVFR THL ?UNDISCTPLINED
AND POORLY LED TROOPS IN ERITRFA', MIST OF THE SFNIOR
OFFICERS OPPOSF THE CO(JNCIL. f g RADiC'AL POI,, ICIES, HUT
THEY HAVE FELT POWFOLESS AND IMPOTFt4T, THEIR CONFTOITNCE
SEEMS TO HAVE REVIVEP, AND THEY MAY NOW RECOME MORE
ACTIVE IN THEIR OPPOSITION To THE CUIJNCIL.
9, OPPOSITION GRf UPS. OUTSIDE I"HE MILITARY ARF STILL
ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTTMG TO CONSOLIDATE THEIR SUPPORT IN
THE PRMVTNCES, THE WILT RE STRF, GTHE"NED RY LANnOWMERS
AND PEASANTS WHO OPPOSE THE rOUNC'TL< CS RECENTLY
ANNOONr,E) LAND REPORH PROGRAM.. DISSIDENTS FROM THE'.
GALL,:A TI I4 E, WHO APPARFNTL,Y ARF ATTEMPTING TO f)Rr*AN17E
!MSURRFCTIOft$ IN THE COUNTRYSIDE, COMPRISE OME OF THE
MOST IMPORTANT 1;POOPS. THEY ARE LED 6Y TAOESSA OIRU,
WHO WAS ARRESTED IN 1465 FOR HIS PART TN THE GALLA
REVOLT 60T WAS LATER RELFASEf. SOME CALLA ARMY
OFFICERS, TWO OF WHOM WERE STAFF HEMMERS OF TMF
.COUNCIL, DEFECTED TO"THE GROUP LAST .WEEK, THE CALLA
ARE THE LARGEST SINGLE. ETHNIC GROUP TN ETHIOPIA, f3UT
THEY AR LARGELY DISPERSED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY,
10, CONS- ,RVAT.TVE OPPONENTS OF THE COUNCIL FROM THE
AMHARA AND TIGR TRIBES ARE CONTINUING THtTR UPRISINGS
IN SEVrRAL OF TIE NORTHERN PROVINCFS, ALTHOUGH THC
GALL AMP THP AMHARA ARE TRADITIONAL RIVALS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY WILL OFCIDF TO WORK TOGETHER TO nRTNr,
ABOUT THE "VERTHR0WW PP THE COUNCIL. THE CRUCIAL TEST
OF THEIR UNITY WOULO COME AFTER THE COUNCIL WAS OUSTED;
EACH TWINE. WOULD 6F 5ENSTTTVF TO IMOICATIGNS THAT IT
129 THU COUNCIL,; EXPECTS ITS LANO RIF'FC1HM PRnGRAM TO
LEAD TO LARGE-SCALE' VIOLENCE, CUT IT IS CONFIDENT ITS
OWN POSITION IN THE END WILL HE STRENGTHENED? THE
COUNCIL, HOWEVER, IS PROSA1 LY OVERRATING ITS APIL,ITY
TO CONTROL EVENTS AND MISJUDGING THE CONSEQUENrES
PSN$ RI.'A730 Ppt;L 03
DTG:+ 72fr5M1 MAR
25X1
o Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/01/03 : LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/01/03: LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0
S F C R F I **?****$
OF wTOFS'REAO DISDRDFR, THE COUNCIL13 ATTEMPT TC
NATIONALIZE ALL AGRICULTURAL. LAND CO1,1LD TRANSFORM
INCIPIENT UPRISINGS INTO PULL?!FC;ALE REF1EL.LTUNS, THE
ARMY, SPREAO THIN HECAU3F r ITS IP VC.lLVEMJENT IN FRITPEA9
WOULD ~E HARD PRESSED TO PUT DOWN THE REVOLTS,, THE
LOYALTY OF THE MANY nFFIC`.ERS AHO ARE LANDOWNER: WOULD
SE IN rDi 3T, A FO THER W.EAKF4lNG OF THE COUNCIL'S
PDS1T.InN WILL P tOI AML.Y STIMULATE FURTHER COUP PLOTTING
MY DXS:AIDENT MILITARY OFFICERS,
13. OTHER CIVIL DXSTURMANCES ARE AgDI14r TO THE'
PROBLEMS, IN RECENT WFEKS THERE HAS $E-EN A SHARP
INCREASE IN REPORTS OF LOCAL 4ESTOFNT$ KILLING OR:
ATTACKING STUDENTS SFNT INTO THE COUNTRYSIDE to TEACH
LITERArY AND EN64(iE IN RURAL OFVELOPM NT WIRKO, TRIBAL
FRICYIONS HAVE LED Tn FIGHTING AMONG SOME ST(JDFaTS,
AND MANY ARE DESFRTIN(i THE CAMPAIGN# THESE INrIDENTS
WILL' HARDEN THF- OPP091TIn)N OF PARENTS TO THE COUNCIL.
TRXHAL FIGWTTNG IS SPREADING IN SOUTHERN ETHIO)PIAV AND
INCIDENTS OF RURAL RANMITR,Y ARE INCREASING TWRMUrHOUT
THE CnINTRY,
QUO. E"2 IMPOST.
P841 110JI3 PAGk 04 OF 0.4
OTG107203PZ MAN 75
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0
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/01/03: LOC-HAK-262-6-59-0