NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 10 APRIL 1980

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005148502
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00460
• Publication Date: April 10, 1980

Director of
Central
Intelligence
APPROVED FOR RELEASED
DATE: 01-20-2010
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
10 April 1980
fop Secret-
CO NID 80-085JX
prt
copy 3 8 8
 Situation Reports
Afghanistan-USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Briefs and Comments
EC-Iran: CaZZ for Common Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Yugoslavia: Contest for Party Position . . . . . . . . . 6
Ecuador: Administration Floundering . . . . . . . . . . . 7
International: Law of the Sea Conference . . . . . . . . 8
Israel-Lebanon: Continuing Tension . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Mauritania: Opposition to the President . . . . . . . . . 10
 We estimate the number of Soviet troops committed to Afghan-
istan now to be about 115,000, of which some 85,000 are stationed
inside the country.
Anti-US Propaganda
The new anti-US campaign under way in the Afghan
media features a few new themes, some of which presumably
were formulated by the Soviets. Kabul accuses senior
US officials of lying about Soviet chemical warfare in
Afghanistan and about the number of political prisoners.
Past US aid to Afghanistan is also criticized. For
example, a US-built irrigation project in southern
Afghanistan is described as poorly designed, costly,
and harmful to the soil.
1
10 April 1980
 the US and Iraq.
President Bani-Sadr probably will not have much success in
trying to improve liticaZ position by taking a hard Zine on
Both Bani-Sadr and Foreign Minister Ghotbzadeh have
taken a tough position in public this week. Bani-Sadr
has stressed support for exporting Iran's revolution to
Egypt and other Muslim countries.
there
are widespread rumors that Bani-Sadr will resign in frus-
tration--especially if the Islamic Republic Party wins a
clear majority in the second round of legislative elec-
tions. Bani-Sadr's hopes of reviving his influence are
constrained by a number of factors:
-- He may be blamed for failing to get the economy
moving.
-- He could also become the scapegoat for any mili-
tary setbacks at Iraqi hands.
-- He may be weakened by new domestic unrest by
the dissident minorities--perhaps backed by
Iraq.
Soviet and Japanese Reactions
The Soviets have come closer to endorsing Iran's
position on the hostages than at any other time since
their capture. A Moscow Radio commentary broadcast in
Farsi on Tuesday professed the USSR's support for "Iran's
just acts." (U)
Following US demarches last November, blatant
expressions of Soviet backing for the seizure of the US
Embassy disappeared from Soviet media. The break in US-
Iranian relations apparently has prompted the Soviets to
attempt to improve the USSR's ties with the Khomeini
regime by more openly siding with Iran in its dispute
 The Japanese Government decided yesterday to hold
its exports to Iran at present levels and to keep oil
imports at a limit of 620,000 barrels per day. Japan's
exports to Iran had been increasing and by February had
reached roughly 75 percent of the pre-revolutionary level.
Oil imports have been running well ahead of the limit,
but Japanese officials stated previously that future
deliveries of crude would be tapering off.
The sanctions also call for the. pace of construction
to slow at the joint petrochemical plant and Japanese
commercial banks to refuse new deposits by Iran. Offi-
cials said they would monitor moves by US and European
countries before taking any further actions. (U)
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10 April 1980
 EC-IRAN: Call for Common Policy
The EC Foreign Ministers will use the Council of Europe minis-
terial meeting in Lisbon today to discuss informally the US request
for breaking diplomatic relations with Iran and imposing sanctions.
Although the EC states have expressed sympathy with
the US position and generally support the new US actions,
they are reluctant to commit themselves to similar steps.
In insisting on the need for a common EC stance on fur-
ther actions against Iran--a position taken by the UK,
West Germany, and the smaller EC countries--the Community
members may be seeking to avoid being blamed individually
if they do not take the actions the US seeks.
EC members in the past have doubted the effective-
ness of sanctions, and France, the UK, and Denmark have
questioned their legality. On the issue of severing
diplomatic relations, Belgium has noted that the Nine
would find it easier to withdraw their ambassadors from
Tehran than to effect an actual break. The UK believes
that it would be unwise to cut all Western ties with
Iran, while Bonn fears retaliation against German
nationals there.
The talks today probably will be inconclusive with
further discussions taking place at the EC Foreign Min-
isters' meeting on 21 and 22 April. A formal EC state-
ment is unlikely before the heads of state meet in
Brussels, orobably at the end of the month.
10 April 1980
 10 April 1980
 YUGOSLAVIA: Contest for Party Position
A heated contest is shaping uti over who will become the next
chairman of the party presidium.
Backers of Vladimir Bakaric--a Croat member of the
party presidium tapped earlier by President Tito to over-
see the succession--reportedly are pressing for the early
adoption of special procedures that would ensure Bakaric's
selection in October as chairman. Petar Stambolic and
Milos Minic, Serbs and fellow members of the presidium,
apparently are leading the main opposition to this maneu-
ver.
There is no established rotation for filling the
vacancy. Tito handpicked the two previous presidium
chairmen to serve one-year terms.
The post promises to be one of the key positions
in post-Tito Yugoslavia. Party rules specifically assign
-Fhe -re$
idium chairman several of Tito's responsibilities.
Bakaric appears to be gaining influence and prestige.
The Yugoslav media is giving him prominent attention,
and he has been singled out for special awards, including
honorary citizenship in several Yugoslav towns.
10 April 1980
 ECUADOR: Administration Floundering
The confrontation President RoZdos is provoking with congres-
sional chief Bucaram is weakening his ability to govern and heighten-
ing military concerns about his administration's poor performance.
Roldos last week proposed constitutional reforms
that would undercut Bucaram by increasing executive power
over the legislature. Threatening to resign if the
proposals are rejected in a plebiscite, Roldos scored
most political parties for failing to back his program.
The intemperate nature of Roldos' actions has left
the President with no better than an even chance of
winning and has raised the political cost of defeat.
By attacking the parties and trying to enlarge his own
powers, Roldos has driven some potential supporters into
Bucaram's corner and left himself isolated. His threat
to resign will put him in an embarrassing--and perhaps
untenable--position if he loses.
Since he assumed power from the armed forces last
summer, Roldos' personal power struggle with Bucaram has
caused him to neglect the economy and has impeded his
efforts to produce a cohesive legislative program.
Although military leaders have for the most part supported
Roldos, his actions thus far have done little to allay
their concerns about the ability of civilians to govern
effectively.
The prospects of a government dominated by the mili-
tary's old foe, Bucaram, are even more disturbing to the
high command. Over the short run the chances of a coup
are not great, but they will increase if Bucaram defeats
Roldos or if the confrontation drags on indefinitely.
10 April 1980
 US delegates at the UN Law of the Sea conference that ad-
journed Zast week in New York have reported that the Soviets may
have been even more forthcoming than in past sessions.
cal miles into the Arctic Ocean.
On the difficult issue regarding the control of re-
sources on the continental shelf and submarine ridges,
Moscow offered a compromise that the US interprets as
providing for US jurisdiction over the potentially oil-
rich Chukchi Plateau, which extends well over 500 nauti-
probably will require further attention.
The Soviets also continued to support US demands
for liberalized rules to govern scientific research on
the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles. Because
of objections from Brazil and others, however, this issue
Another stalemate continues on the criteria to be
used for delimiting maritime boundaries between states
whose economic zone and continental shelf claims overlap.
cured.
A full slate of work still faces the conference next
summer in Geneva if a draft treaty is to be produced this
year. In addition to resolving the remaining substantive
issues, particularly those dealing with control over ex-
ploitation of deep-seabed manganese nodules, negotiators
must produce the treaty's final clauses on ratification
and amendment provisions. They also will have to create
a commission to oversee the treaty's entry into force
once the required number of ratifications have been se-
10 April 1980
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 ISRAEL-LEBANON: Continuing Tension
A small Israeli force equipped with armored personnel
carriers established four positions yesterday in or near
the UN zone in southern Lebanon. The Israelis maintain
that their troops are to help bring their Christian
militia allies under control. In the past few days, UN
troops have suffered three casualties in trying to dis-
lodge militiamen from a position they established in the
UN zone. The militia have again stepped up their harass-
ment of UN observer posts in the Christian enclaves.
The Israeli troop moves may also reflect an interest
in improving security in the enclaves to help deter
terrorist attacks such as the one on Monday in northern
Israel. They do not, however, appear to be in prepara-
tion for retaliation for that attack. We expect the
Israelis to carry out a more dramatic retaliatory opera-
tion, possibly involving air strikes or a commando raid.
There are signs that they are planning something, but we
have no information on their intended targets and timing.
Top seet-et
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10 April 1980
 MAURITANIA: Opposition to the President
The arrest last week of former Foreign Minister
Abdallah could prompt conservative elements in Mauri-
tania's Government and armed forces to challenge President
Haidalla's authority. Abdallah's arrest appears to be
related primarily to his espousal of pro-Moroccan and
pro-Western policies. It may also be directed at his
cousin, the armed forces chief of staff, who has clashed
with Haidalla over the President's sympathy for the
Polisario Front insurgents in Western Sahara. Haidalla's
action could provoke the chief of staff into open opposi-
10 April 1980
 Top Meret