LETTER TO HONORABLE WILLIAM F. WELD FROM DAVID P. DOHERTY RE DISCLOSURES OF CLASSIFIED INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005533622
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2010
• Case Number: F-2010-01222
• Publication Date: November 20, 1987

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20505
(b)(3)
APPROVED FOR
RELEASE^ DATE:
12-Jul-2010
Honorable William F. Weld
Assistant Attorney General
Criminal Division
Department of Justice
Washington, D.C. 20530
Attention: Mark Richard, Esq.
Deputy Assistant Attorney General
The Director of Central Intelligence ha asked that I bring
to your immediate attention the enclosed unauthorized
disclosures of classified intelligence information. He also
has requested that the FBI be authorized and instructed to
conduct an investigation ~on a priority basis. This report is
being made pursuant to sections 1.7(a) and (b) of Executive
Order 12333. (U) ,
The enclosed articles from The Washington Times and The
Washington Post of 18 November 1987 contain unauthorized
disclosures of classified intelligence information classified
at the Top Secret codeword level. The material has been
verified as being derived from the final report by a joint
CIA/DOD working group, the "DCI Mobile missile Task Force
Intelligence Requirements and Analysis Working Group." The
publication of these articles constitutes an extremely serious
compromise of classified information. Eighty copies of the
working group report were produced, but only. 50 of them bore
the 11 December 1986 date cited in the news stories. The
report was disseminated only within CIA and DOD elements, (S)
 b)(3)
c^
b)(3)
eM
The CIA Office of Security is conducting an internal
investigation and is prepared to discuss its efforts with
representatives of the FBI. For reference purposes, this case
has been designated Case No. 87-63. (U)
Sincerely,
Associate Deputy General Counsel
Enclosures
cc: John L. Martin, Esq.
Internal Security Section
Criminal Division
 U.S. Intelligence services will lack
the ability to verify a comprehensive
ban of mobile missiles "for many
Years' whether or not 'the Soviets
agree to on?site inspection, accord.
ing to an analysis by the Central In-
telligence Agency.
The study -?" OCt Mobile Missile
Task Force Intelligence Require--
ments and Analysis Working Group
Final Report" ,- was filed on Dec.
11. 1986, to then-CIA director Wil.
liam Casey.
The paper makes few direct ref.
erences to proposals now being de.
bated fore treaty that would require
the Soviets to destroy all its SS-20
intermediate range nuclear missiles
now In Europe. But its pessimistic
conclusions about U.S. ability to
monitor any mobile missiles -.-. in.
cluding the SS-20 -- are likely to
harm administration efforts to win
Senate ratification of an emerging
pact on Eurornissiles.
Excerpts from the paper, which
carries top-secret code words "Ruff
tar( Umbra" and an index number
"TC5.60115186," were provided to
Copley News Service by a source in
the U.5 government.
The report seeks to "identify
shortfalls" In current funding levels
sod identifies areas where "more re-
sources wlti be needed" to meet
Muirements for Identifying Soviet
mobile missiles, either for targeting
or verification purposes.
It concludes: "Our current cap.
ability to meet adequately the de-
mands placed upon our limited re-
1 sources,, to address effectively .the
,ofle ban
mobile missile problem, is limited!'
Indeed, at one point, the report
identifies the number of mobile So-
viet SS-24 missiles as "probably" be-
tween 100 and 200, but perhaps
higher, with 150 cited as a "best esti-.
mate:'
Intelligence experts such as Wil-
liam Van Cleave, a scholar at the
Hoover Institution, confirm that
"that's about the level of uncertainty
we face" In estimating the number
of Soviet mobile missiles.
The Soviets have told U.S. nego-
tiators they have one missile per mo-
bile missile launcher, but some ex-
perts, Including the Defense
Intelligence Agency, say there could
be as many as five.
The Issue Is important to a treaty
on mobile missiles in Europe, ex?
ports say, because it will be easy to
verify how many missiles the Sovi-
ets , actually destroy. The problem,
officials say, Is that the United States
has little 'knowledge of how many
mobile missiles have been produced
and are now deployed.
'?Wecan know whether the Soviets
have destroyed. say, 450 missiles"
said a Pontagon official. "But did
they start with 450, or with 2,450?
That we won't know, and the
revolutionary kinds of inspections
that would have to take place before
we would know -. well, these aren't
even under discussion in the current
negotiations:"
Mr. Van Cleave agreed that ,the
general CIA estimates of how much
you can verify in an INF agreement
is between 2 and 4 on a scale of 10"
Adding to the problem, officials
say. 13 the fact that the Soviets have
built at least eight bases for the road.
mobile SS-2S. The S$-25 would be
virtually indistinguishable from the
SS-20 to U.S. Intelligence for verifi.
cation purposes. Yet it would be al?
lowed under an INF treaty because
the SS-25 Is an intercontinental, not
an Intermediate-range, missile.
Thus, the Soviets could simply
move large numbers of SS-20 mis-
siles to SS-25 bases in the Ukraine,
where they could still reach much of
Europe but presumably would be
off-limits to the United States even
under on-site inspection.
Indeed, the CIA report tacitly con,
cedes that the United States does not
yet understand "the concept of oper-
ations for mobile missile units that
are deployed to the field ... A true
capability t .locate, identify, and
track mol?ll missiles ... will re-
quire significant enhancement of
our present capabilities."
Intelligence experts say the pa?
per, which calls for "radical
changes" in the U.S. approach to in-
telligenco gathering In the coming
decade, was a follow-up to a similar
1985 study also performed by the
CIA. That study, also still classified,
carries the same code words and
reaches even more pessimistic con-
clusions.
"For approximately- the restt of
this century;" it concludes, "there
will be uncertainties associated with
any arms control treaty limiting me,
bile missiles, Even with ion-site in-
spections, only very modest im-
provements in counting deployed
mobile missiles seem likely."
Angelo Codevilla, an intelligence
expert and co-authcr of "Arms Con-
trol Deluslon,"a book that argues the
United States cannot verify mean,
ingful weapons reductions with the
Soviets, says of the latest CIA study:
,,With that paper on file, it's going to
be hard for (CIA Directorl Bill Web-
ster or anyone else at the agency to
testify for an INF treaty."
CIA officials declined to comment
on the now study.