LETTER TO HONORABLE WILLIAM F. WELD FROM DAVID P. DOHERTY RE DISCLOSURES OF CLASSIFIED INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
0005533622
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
4
Document Creation Date: 
June 24, 2015
Document Release Date: 
July 22, 2010
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
F-2010-01222
Publication Date: 
November 20, 1987
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY WASHINGTON. D.C. 20505 (b)(3) APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE: 12-Jul-2010 Honorable William F. Weld Assistant Attorney General Criminal Division Department of Justice Washington, D.C. 20530 Attention: Mark Richard, Esq. Deputy Assistant Attorney General The Director of Central Intelligence ha asked that I bring to your immediate attention the enclosed unauthorized disclosures of classified intelligence information. He also has requested that the FBI be authorized and instructed to conduct an investigation ~on a priority basis. This report is being made pursuant to sections 1.7(a) and (b) of Executive Order 12333. (U) , The enclosed articles from The Washington Times and The Washington Post of 18 November 1987 contain unauthorized disclosures of classified intelligence information classified at the Top Secret codeword level. The material has been verified as being derived from the final report by a joint CIA/DOD working group, the "DCI Mobile missile Task Force Intelligence Requirements and Analysis Working Group." The publication of these articles constitutes an extremely serious compromise of classified information. Eighty copies of the working group report were produced, but only. 50 of them bore the 11 December 1986 date cited in the news stories. The report was disseminated only within CIA and DOD elements, (S) b)(3) c^ b)(3) eM The CIA Office of Security is conducting an internal investigation and is prepared to discuss its efforts with representatives of the FBI. For reference purposes, this case has been designated Case No. 87-63. (U) Sincerely, Associate Deputy General Counsel Enclosures cc: John L. Martin, Esq. Internal Security Section Criminal Division U.S. Intelligence services will lack the ability to verify a comprehensive ban of mobile missiles "for many Years' whether or not 'the Soviets agree to on?site inspection, accord. ing to an analysis by the Central In- telligence Agency. The study -?" OCt Mobile Missile Task Force Intelligence Require-- ments and Analysis Working Group Final Report" ,- was filed on Dec. 11. 1986, to then-CIA director Wil. liam Casey. The paper makes few direct ref. erences to proposals now being de. bated fore treaty that would require the Soviets to destroy all its SS-20 intermediate range nuclear missiles now In Europe. But its pessimistic conclusions about U.S. ability to monitor any mobile missiles -.-. in. cluding the SS-20 -- are likely to harm administration efforts to win Senate ratification of an emerging pact on Eurornissiles. Excerpts from the paper, which carries top-secret code words "Ruff tar( Umbra" and an index number "TC5.60115186," were provided to Copley News Service by a source in the U.5 government. The report seeks to "identify shortfalls" In current funding levels sod identifies areas where "more re- sources wlti be needed" to meet Muirements for Identifying Soviet mobile missiles, either for targeting or verification purposes. It concludes: "Our current cap. ability to meet adequately the de- mands placed upon our limited re- 1 sources,, to address effectively .the ,ofle ban mobile missile problem, is limited!' Indeed, at one point, the report identifies the number of mobile So- viet SS-24 missiles as "probably" be- tween 100 and 200, but perhaps higher, with 150 cited as a "best esti-. mate:' Intelligence experts such as Wil- liam Van Cleave, a scholar at the Hoover Institution, confirm that "that's about the level of uncertainty we face" In estimating the number of Soviet mobile missiles. The Soviets have told U.S. nego- tiators they have one missile per mo- bile missile launcher, but some ex- perts, Including the Defense Intelligence Agency, say there could be as many as five. The Issue Is important to a treaty on mobile missiles in Europe, ex? ports say, because it will be easy to verify how many missiles the Sovi- ets , actually destroy. The problem, officials say, Is that the United States has little 'knowledge of how many mobile missiles have been produced and are now deployed. '?Wecan know whether the Soviets have destroyed. say, 450 missiles" said a Pontagon official. "But did they start with 450, or with 2,450? That we won't know, and the revolutionary kinds of inspections that would have to take place before we would know -. well, these aren't even under discussion in the current negotiations:" Mr. Van Cleave agreed that ,the general CIA estimates of how much you can verify in an INF agreement is between 2 and 4 on a scale of 10" Adding to the problem, officials say. 13 the fact that the Soviets have built at least eight bases for the road. mobile SS-2S. The S$-25 would be virtually indistinguishable from the SS-20 to U.S. Intelligence for verifi. cation purposes. Yet it would be al? lowed under an INF treaty because the SS-25 Is an intercontinental, not an Intermediate-range, missile. Thus, the Soviets could simply move large numbers of SS-20 mis- siles to SS-25 bases in the Ukraine, where they could still reach much of Europe but presumably would be off-limits to the United States even under on-site inspection. Indeed, the CIA report tacitly con, cedes that the United States does not yet understand "the concept of oper- ations for mobile missile units that are deployed to the field ... A true capability t .locate, identify, and track mol?ll missiles ... will re- quire significant enhancement of our present capabilities." Intelligence experts say the pa? per, which calls for "radical changes" in the U.S. approach to in- telligenco gathering In the coming decade, was a follow-up to a similar 1985 study also performed by the CIA. That study, also still classified, carries the same code words and reaches even more pessimistic con- clusions. "For approximately- the restt of this century;" it concludes, "there will be uncertainties associated with any arms control treaty limiting me, bile missiles, Even with ion-site in- spections, only very modest im- provements in counting deployed mobile missiles seem likely." Angelo Codevilla, an intelligence expert and co-authcr of "Arms Con- trol Deluslon,"a book that argues the United States cannot verify mean, ingful weapons reductions with the Soviets, says of the latest CIA study: ,,With that paper on file, it's going to be hard for (CIA Directorl Bill Web- ster or anyone else at the agency to testify for an INF treaty." CIA officials declined to comment on the now study.