Books Monographs

Listing of Declassified National Intelligence Estimates on the Soviet Union and International Communism, 1946-1984


(This introduction has been updated to provide new links to material released after this listing was published.)

The National Intelligence Estimates cited in this brochure are available for review and reproduction through the online catalogue of the National Archives within Records Group 263, “Records of the Central Intelligence Agency, 1894–2002. The National Archives Catalog Search

At the time of the release, the collection represented the most highly sensitive intelligence analysis of the former Soviet Union and International Communism

ever released by the US Intelligence Community. Most were declassified in 1993 and 1994, and another 59 that assess Soviet conventional military capabilities were released this year.

At the time, the Center for the Study of Intelligence was responsible for the declassification other Estimates on the USSR that were at least 10 years old. The review was done in consultation with appropriate components of the Intelligence Community, and especially with those that participated in producing the assessments for senior officials in the administrations of eight presidents, from Harry Truman to Ronald Reagan.

Furthermore, the Center then embarked on a new declassification review, consistent with the provisions of Executive Order 12958. Significant  analysis on the USSR that was  completed by CIA’s Intelligence

Directorate from the Agency’s inception in September 1947 through the collapse of the USSR in August 1991.

Listed, with links, are the pages of this “Books and Monographs” portion of CSI’s site that contain the results of these declassification efforts before the function was transferred to the Historical Declassification Division of CIA’s Information Management Staff.

Intentions and Capabilities: Estimates on Soviet Strategic Forces, 1950–1983 (Published June 30, 1996)

Assessing the Soviet Threat: The Early Cold War Years (Published May 30, 1997)

On the Front Lines of the Cold War: Documents on the Intelligence War in Berlin, 1946 to 1961 (Published June 30, 1999)

At Cold War’s End: US Intelligence on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 1989–1991 (Published December 1, 1999)

CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947–1991 (Published June 15, 2001)

Watching the Bear: Essays on CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union (Published July 1, 2003)

Multiple other historical document releases can be found in the Freedom of Information Act Reading Room.


Download PDF