Editor’s Note: This article originally appeared as an unclassified Intelligence Monograph published by the Center for the Study of Intelligence in May 1996. The article essentially does not rest on argumentation but on the extensive supporting evidence cited in Appendix A. Because of its length, the Appendix does not accompany the article. The reference citations to Appendix A, however, have been retained in the article’s text. The complete monograph is available in the Books and Monographs section of CSI resources.