Intelligence Studies

Studies in Intelligence 67, No. 4 (Extracts, December 2023)

Articles and reviews from Studies in Intelligence 67, No. 4 (December 2023)

Contents

Historical Perspective

Intelligence and Diplomacy in China’s Civil War
George C. Marshall as Special Envoy to China,
December 1945 to January 1947
, by David Robarge

Intelligence Today and Tomorrow

Intelligence and Technology: Artificial Intelligence for Analysis: The Road Ahead, by Dennis J. Gleeson, Jr.

An Inevitable Future? The End of Human Intelligence Analysis—Better Start Preparing, by John F. Galascione

“This Piece Was Written by a Machine”: Intelligence Analysis, Synthesis, and Automation, by Alice B. Borene

Commentary

The Enduring Importance of the Humanities in the Work of Intelligence, by Andrew Skitt Gilmour

Analytical Tradecraft

Instituting Devil’s Advocacy in IC Analysis after the Arab-Israeli War of October 1973, by James D. Marchio

Intelligence in Public Media

Eighteen Days in October: The Yom Kippur War and How It
Created the Modern Middle East

and
Target Tehran: How Israel Is Using Sabotage, Cyberwarfare, Assassination—and Secret Diplomacy—to Stop a Nuclear Iran and Create a New Middle East
Reviewed by Alissa M.

Agents of Subversion: The Fate of John T. Downey and the CIA’s Covert War in China
Reviewed by Bianca L. Adair

The Black Cats of Osan: U-2 Spy Plane Escapades and
Calamities in Korea

Reviewed by Kevin Ayers

Loyalty First: The Life and Times of Charles A. Willoughby,
MacArthur’s Chief Intelligence Officer

Reviewed by Stephen C. Mercado

Covert Legions: U.S. Army Intelligence in Germany, 1944–1949
Reviewed by Scott A. Moseman, PhD

OPERATION RYPE: A World War II OSS Railway Sabotage
Mission in Norway

Reviewed by J.R. Seeger

Intelligence Officer’s Bookshelf—December 2023
Compiled and reviewed by Hayden Peake and others

Media Reviewed in 2023

Contributors

Article Contributors

Alice B. Borene is a PhD candidate at King’s College London. Before that she served in roles throughout the ODNI, including as its first director for Human Rights and War Crimes, the special assistant to the deputy director and PDB briefer, assistant director for Europe, and as an analyst.

Dennis J. Gleeson, Jr., is a former director of strategy for analytic systems at CIA. He frequently writes about artificial intelligence on Substack.

John F. Galascione is a retired CIA officer who focused his entire career on analysis of foreign nuclear weapon-related development and testing activity.

James D. Marchio is a retired US Air Force officer and former product evaluator in the ODNI. He has contributed several articles to Studies, most recently “Fostering Creativity in the IC: Lessons from Four Decades Ago,” Studies 65, no. 4 December 2021).

David Robarge is CIA’s Chief Historian.

Andrew Skitt Gilmour is a retired member of CIA’s Senior Analytic Service and is a Scholar-in-Residence at the Center for the Study of Statesmanship at The Catholic University
of America. He is the author of A Middle East Primed for New Thinking: Insights and Policy Options from the Ancient World. It can be found at https://cia.gov/resources/csi/
books-monographs/a-middle-east-primed-for-new-thinking/.

Reviewers

Dr. Bianca Adair, a retired CIA operations officer, is director of the Intelligence Studies Program and Clinical Assistant Professor in the Department of Politics at The Catholic
University of America. Her article, “Rear Admiral Sidney Souers and the Emergence of CIA’s Covert Action Authorities,” appeared in Studies 65, no. 2 (June 2021).

John Ehrman is a retired CIA analyst and frequent contributor since 2007.

Kevin Ayers is a CIA careerist and GEOINT analyst at NGA, currently on a joint-duty assignment in the National Counterproliferation and Biosecurity Center. His article, “NIMA’s Support to Secretary of State Colin Powell’s 2003 Speech to the UN Security Council on Iraqi WMD Programs,” appeared in Studies 66, no. 2 (June 2022).

Stephen C. Mercado is a retired Open Source Enterprise officer. He reads fluently in multiple languages and is a frequent contributor to Studies.

Scott A. Moseman, PhD, is a former naval intelligence officer and member of the Department of Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Operations at the Command and General Staff College in Fort Leavenworth, Kansas.

Hayden Peake served in CIA’s Directorates of Operations and Science and Technology. He has compiled the Intelligence Officer’s Bookshelf since 2002.

J.R. Seeger is a retired CIA paramilitary officer and a frequent media reviewer for Studies.

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