Introduction
Analogical reasoning is a pervasive heuristic tool we use to make sense of complex and ambiguous situations, reduce uncertainty, and aid
decisionmaking. In the IC, analysts often use analogical reasoning for these reasons. Selecting analogies that best explain a current scenario—the issue under examination—is essential for supporting national security customers and maintaining analytic credibility. Yet experience tells us this selection process is fraught. In this article, I offer a method to improve it.