Intelligence Studies

Volume 64, No. 4

December 2020
Unclassified extracts from Studies in Intelligence

Contents

Back to the Future
Rethinking Analytic Disciplines, Reordering the Profession
J. Eli Margolis

In this article, senior Defense Intelligence Agency analyst J. Eli Margolis reviews thinking about different kinds of uncertainty (epistemic and aleatory) and uses the construct to suggest an alternative approach to defining analytic disciplines and products.

Historical Perspectives

From the Studies Archive: Genesis of a Project
Intelligence Implications of Disease
Warren F. Carey and Myles Maxfield

Published in Studies in Intelligence in 1972, the article written by two distinguished members of CIA’s Office of Scientific Intelligence explored the implications for intelligence inquiry of outbreaks of meningitis in the People’s Republic of China during 1966–67.

From the National Archive
Allen Dulles on Political Reporting, 1925: Nuts, Bolts, and Philosophy
David A. Langbart

The National Archives archivist responsible for national security agency records uncovered a lecture given in 1925 by the then-Foreign Service officer Allen W. Dulles, who would serve in OSS during WW II and become the first civilian Director of Central Intelligence in 1953. In 1925, he had risen in the ranks of the Foreign Service since joining it in 1916, and delivered this lecture to students at the Foreign Service School, which had only been established the year before.

Contributors

Warren F. Carey and Myles Maxfield were members of the Life Sciences Division of the Office of Scientific Intelligence in CIA’s Directorate of Science and Technology. Dr. Carey had passed away only months before the article was published in 1972. Dr. Maxfield would serve in CIA for many more years. He died in retirement in 2007.

David Ian Chambers is a retired member of the British Diplomatic Service.

Leslie C. is an officer in CIA’s Directorate of Operations.

Nicholas Dujmovic is the founding director of the Intelligence Studies Program at The Catholic University of America. He retired from CIA after 26 years of service as analyst, manager, editor of the President’s Daily Brief, and CIA historian.

Brent Geary is a member of CIA’s History Staff and a member of the Studies Editorial Board.

Matthew J. serves in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

David Langbart is an archivist at the National Archives, where he is the specialist on records of the foreign affairs agencies.

J. E. Leonardson is the pen name of an analyst in CIA’s Directorate of Analysis.

George P. Lewis is the pen name of an officer in CIA’s Directorate of Science and Technology

Jason U. Manosevitz is an analyst in CIA’s Directorate of Analysis and a member of the Studies Editorial Board.

J. Eli Margolis is a senior intelligence analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Hayden Peake has served in the CIA’s Directorates of Operations and Science and Technology.He has been compiling and writing reviews for the “Intelligence Officer’s Bookshelf”since December 2002.

Peter Sichel served with OSS and CIA. He resigned from the agency in 1959. His memoir, The Secrets of My Life: Vintner, Prisoner, Soldier, Spy appeared in 2016 (ArchwayPublishing).

David Welker is a member of CIA’s History Staff.